每经编辑｜叶峰 6月17日，煤炭板块表现相对较好，煤炭ETF（515220）收涨0.81%，依旧受到市场资金的青睐。 从产量情况来看，据国家统计局数据，5月规上工业原煤产量4.0亿吨，同比增长4.2%，增速比4月份加快0.4个百分点；日均产量1301万吨。1-5月份，规上 工业原煤产量19.9亿吨，同比增长6.0%。5月原煤产量维持稳定。 从进口情况来看，根据海关总局数据，5月中国进口煤炭总量为3604万吨，较去年同期的4381.6万吨减少777.6万吨，同比下降17.7%；较4月份的3782.5万 吨减少178.5万吨，环比下降4.7%。5月进口煤持续减量，煤炭供给收缩。 从价格端来看，在供需关系逐步改善以及迎峰度夏的催化下，国内煤价呈现企稳的态势，6月16日秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤平仓价609元/吨，环比上周持 平，较6月初下跌1元/吨。 数据来源：Wind 从下游需求来看，近期下游降雨天气较多，水电发力明显，火电厂日耗提升有限，但按往年迎峰度夏节奏，6月下旬至9月中旬，沿海八省电厂日耗仍有较 大的提升空间。此外，根据国家气象局，今年5月全国平均气温17.1℃，同比偏高0.9℃，华中地区中北部、西南地区 ...

"500千伏晋霍Ⅰ线5042-2隔离开关传动过程中，机构传动无问题，本次检修要重点关注开关类设备老化情况。"总工 作负责人文圣说道。6月9日，位于祁县的国网山西超高压变电公司500千伏晋中变电站现场，检修工作热火朝天，40余名 作业人员正进行着一场度夏保障作业。 500千伏晋中变电站位于山西省晋中市，2004年投运，在山西中部电网中承担重要角色，同时是即将投运的500千伏介 休站电网建设的重要一环，提高了区域电网的运行可靠性。本次停电检修计划于6月9日开始，历时5天结束，多专业联合 作业，检修任务重、技术难度大。 ▲国网山西超高压变电公司检修人员在500千伏晋中变电站，进行500千伏晋霍二线5053C相断路器密度继电器消缺更 换。 为确保检修工作顺利进行，国网山西超高压变电公司在晋中站现场推行青蓝计划，1名党员骨干与2名青年结成师徒， 师父通过传帮带方式手把手传授技术要领，指导青年员工进行设备检修、故障排查等工作，让其在实践中快速成长，为 迎峰度夏工作注入强劲动力。 连日来的持续高温，使得晋中站检修面临严峻环境考验。6月9日，当天气温高达37℃，500千伏晋霍Ⅰ线5043断路器 机械特性试验过程中，李颢然固定 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存仍处高位，煤价震荡运行 2025 年 06 月 15 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（6 月 9 日至 6 月 13 日）港口动力煤现货价环比持平，报收 609 元 /吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 182.46 万吨，环比上周增长 7.81 万吨，增幅 4.47%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有增长。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 189.41 万吨，环比上周减少 2.27 万吨，降幅 1.18%；日均锚地船舶共 75 艘，环比上周增长 7 艘，增幅 10.11%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 2868.8 万吨，环比上周下降 63.1 万吨，降幅 2.15%。港口本周日均调出量环比下降，库存绝对值减少， 但绝对值仍处高位，煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响以及汛期水电稳增 影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随逐步进入迎峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进 一步触底上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。固 收类资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：国内动力煤价格在经历 5 月下旬的短暂企稳后，再次走弱。5 月份，山西等主产区出 现安全事故，6 月进入国家安全生产月后，产地安监和环保影响有所加大，但当前正值迎峰度夏 关键时期，预计对国内煤炭产量整体影响可控。需求方面，6 月 4 日，国家气候中心发布 2025 年 汛期全国气候趋势滚动预测，显示今夏我国降水呈现"北多南少"的特征，其中四川东北部、云 南西部等地降水较常年同期偏多，且大部地区气温偏高。不过，截至 5 月底，国内电厂煤 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 核心观点 发布日期：2025.6.9 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-06-14 2024-07-14 2024-08-14 2024-09-14 2024-10-14 2024-11-14 2024-12-14 2025-01-14 2025-02-14 2025-03-14 2025-04-14 2025-05-14 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： 港口库存持续释放，焦炭开启第三轮提降 【2025.6.2-2025.6.8】 行业评级：中性 liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 格稳中有降，尤其是产地煤价继续反弹受，随着高温天气增多， 需求边际改善，价格有望止跌企稳。 ◆ 焦煤价格稳中有降，焦钢总库存持续走低。本周，炼焦煤在基 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port inventories continue to decline, while coking coal has entered its third round of price reductions. The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to weak demand and supply pressures [6][11][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, with the coal sector underperforming the index. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% to 3385.36 points, while the coal sector fell by 0.50% to 2565.75 points [7][11] Thermal Coal - Port inventories are decreasing, and production coal prices are facing resistance in rebounding. The average daily consumption of coal at power plants in southern regions has decreased to 1.693 million tons, down 182,000 tons week-on-week [11][12][19] - The report notes that while high temperatures may increase electricity demand, the overall supply-demand relationship remains loose, leading to weak price stability [12][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stable but declining, with the market experiencing a supply surplus and weak demand. The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 86.4%, down 1.3% week-on-week [26][30] - The report highlights that the third round of price reductions for coking coal has been implemented, with significant price drops observed in various regions [26][29] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, and shipping prices have also declined. The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou is 40.30 yuan/ton, down 2.15 yuan/ton week-on-week [34][36] Industry News - The report covers significant developments such as the first coal transport from Meizhou Bay Port to Ningbo Zhoushan Port, the launch of Australian coal trading at Hainan International Energy Trading Center, and the approval of a coal mine integration plan in Inner Mongolia [37][38]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 | | | | | 表1：6月6日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1342 | 1348 | 1379 | 1335.5 | 1350.5 | 0.67% | 33,479 | 53,370 | | -90 0.07 | | JM2509 | 757 | 764.5 | 796 | 757.5 | 778.5 | ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 日期 2025 年 6 月 9 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月6日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 2959 | 2969 | 3002 | 2963 | 2975 | 0.57% | 1,845,348 | 2,216,449 | -40,564 | -0.59 | | HC2510 | 3077 | 30 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May. Although the safety supervision and environmental protection in coal - producing areas have increased in June, the impact on overall coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak summer demand period. The demand shows that the power plant coal consumption remains at a low level, and the inventory at Bohai Rim ports is gradually decreasing from a high level. The long - term loose supply pattern of coal has not changed, and it is likely that the peak season will not be prosperous. The coal price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation in the near future [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector (Thermal Coal Spot) - **Core Logic**: After a brief stabilization in late May, the domestic thermal coal price weakened again. In June, due to safety supervision and environmental protection in producing areas and the peak summer demand period, the impact on coal production is expected to be controllable. The 2025 flood - season climate forecast shows "more rain in the north and less in the south" this summer, with high temperatures in most areas. As of the end of May, the power plant coal consumption was at a low level, with the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces' power plants at 171,100 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 16,500 tons) and that of 17 inland provinces' power plants at 280,600 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 35,700 tons). As of June 5, the total coal inventory at 9 Bohai Rim ports was 2,932,300 tons, with a significant week - on - week de - stocking of 157,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 412,600 tons. The thermal coal peak season is approaching, but the long - term loose supply pattern remains unchanged, and the coal price is expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: The reference view is oscillation [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has been in a downward trend since reaching a peak in October 2021, with a significant drop from 1,615 CNY/ton to approximately 618 CNY/ton by June 5, 2025, marking a total decline of 997 CNY/ton [3][10] - Historical analysis indicates that coal price recoveries typically require policy intervention, as seen in previous downturns in 2008, 2015, and 2020 [2][9] - The current market is characterized by a buyer-dominated environment, with coal prices influenced by demand strength during peak summer periods and potential price stabilization policies [10][18] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3,247.89 points, down 0.32%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.20 percentage points [2][75] - The report highlights the need for policy support to reverse negative market sentiment and restore confidence in coal prices [3][9] Coal Price Trends - As of June 6, 2025, the price of thermal coal at the North Port was 618 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [10][36] - The report notes that low-calorie coal prices are showing strength due to structural shortages, while high-calorie coal prices are under pressure from weak demand [10][18] Focus Areas - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of coal production and the impact of potential policy measures on market dynamics [14][54] - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, all rated as "Buy" [13] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that coal supply remains stable, with production returning to normal levels after temporary reductions due to environmental checks [17][18] - The demand from downstream sectors is primarily driven by immediate needs, with limited willingness to accept higher prices [10][18] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry will continue to play a crucial role in China's energy landscape, with expectations for high-quality development amid ongoing structural reforms [38][54]