香港万得通讯社报道，7月2日，惠誉旗下BMI的分析师表示，黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头，尽管金价会维持 在高位，但需要极端事件才会突破4月份的记录。 BMI的分析师写道，鉴于贸易不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美元走软以及央行购买量不断增加，黄金仍处 于高位。然而，要想金价突破4月份创下的3500美元每盎司的历史新高，要么是中东地区爆发战争，要么是美联 储大幅降息。该机构维持其对2025年黄金年平均价格的预测为3100美元每盎司。 在2025年4月，现货黄金达到历史高点3500美元每盎司。随后即使中东局势扰动，金价再也没有突破这一记录。 在BMI发布报告看空黄金之前，花旗是首家看空金价走势的机构。 6月中旬，花旗报告称，黄金的需求将下降，金价预计在未来几个季度将跌破3000美元每盎司，在花旗集团的基 本预测中（概率为60%），金价预计将在下一季度巩固在每盎司3000美元上方，然后走低。该行表示，"到2026 年下半年，黄金将回到每盎司约2500-2700美元水平"。 BMI预计，2025年第二季度和第三季度，黄金价格将在3000-3400美元每盎司之间震荡。 7月1日，花旗重申看空黄金未来走势的观点，称随着中 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，惠誉旗下BMI的分析师表示，黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头。他们写道，鉴于贸 易不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美元走软以及央行购买量不断增加，黄金仍处于高位。 然而， 要想金价突破4月份创下的3500美元/盎司的历史新高，要么是中东地区爆发战争，要么是美联储大幅降 息。BMI维持其对2025年黄金年平均价格的预测为每盎司3100美元。 惠誉旗下BMI：黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头 ...

3. 市场供需：黄金市场呈现分裂景象，美国市场金条和金币供过于求，投资者抛售；而亚太地区对金条 和金币需求强势增长，中国市场同比增长12%。全球央行对黄金增持意愿依然强劲，超90%受访央行认 为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。 走势点评 1. 地缘政治局势：俄乌、以伊为引导的全球地缘政治变革仍是金价偏强基础。全球地缘政治冲突不断、 经济形势复杂多变，黄金作为"避险资产"和"硬通货"，价值受广泛关注。中国、越南、印度等新兴市场 国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 2. 美元走势：美元走弱和避险需求持续，推动黄金期货价格连续第二天走高。不过目前美元已处于严重 超卖状态，若后续出现反弹，一方面将提高以美元计价的大宗商品购买成本，另一方面美元本身也可能 成为黄金的替代避险选择。 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为777.1元/克，上涨0.84%。 黄金价格短期受美元走势、地缘政治和市场供需等因素影响，波动较为频繁。近期因美元走弱、避险需 求增加而上涨，但需警惕美元反弹风险。从长期来看，全球地缘政治冲突不断、经济形势复杂，以及各 国央行持续购金，为黄金价格提供支撑，上涨趋势未改。银河证券等机构认 ...

周二(7月1日)国际黄金维持日内涨势，目前金价位于3340.27美元/盎司，涨幅1.14%，日内上涨37美元。 FXStreet高级分析师Dhwani Mehta指出，黄金交易员目前正等待美联储主席鲍威尔关于美联储降息方面 的新线索。 摘要周二(7月1日)国际黄金维持日内涨势，目前金价位于3340.27美元/盎司，涨幅1.14%，日内上涨37美 元。FXStreet高级分析师DhwaniMehta指出，黄金交易员目前正等待美联储主席鲍威尔关于美联储降息 方面的新线索。 2025年欧洲央行中央银行论坛于6月30日至7月2日在葡萄牙辛特拉举行，投资者关注全球主要央行行长 的讲话。 北京时间周二22:00，美国劳工统计局将公布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)。经济学家预计，美国 5月JOLTs职位空缺为730万人，此前4月为739.1万人。 JOLTS职位空缺报告是是美联储高度关注的劳动力市场数据。 如果金价周二收盘位于50日移动均线3320美元/盎司上方，那么金价反弹可能会聚集力量，并升向21日 移动均线3350美元/盎司。再往上看，上述升势的23.6%斐波那契水平3377美元/盎司将再次受到挑战。 北京时 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a sudden increase, with London spot gold rising over 1% to nearly $3340 per ounce and COMEX gold futures up 1.3% to above $3350 per ounce as of July 1 [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, gold prices surged significantly, with London spot gold increasing by 25.84%, marking the best half-year performance in nearly 18 years [4] - The highest recorded price for spot gold was over $3500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [4] Group 2 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets saw a boom in the gold and jewelry sector, with all 14 commodity gold ETFs in the A-share market rising over 23% [6] - Notable stock performances included companies like潮宏基 and 莱绅通灵, which saw their stock prices double, while others like 老铺黄金 experienced a staggering increase of 321.53% [6] Group 3 - A case study of a 75-year-old woman from Hangzhou illustrates the risks of gold investment, as she purchased gold bars at a high price only to face a decline in value shortly after [7][9] - Despite recent fluctuations, experts believe the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact, with potential targets reaching $3700 per ounce [10] - Factors influencing gold prices include trade negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and economic data affecting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [10][11]

各国央行作为黄金市场的重要参与者，他们的一举一动，都会给市场带来很大的影响。其中，美联储（美国央行）的政策举措 尤为关键，其干预手段主要包括利率调整、货币政策、市场预期管理、公开市场操作及流动性工具管理。 6月金价再度冲高受阻就是例证。美联储维持利率不变并释放鹰派信号，导致金价应声回落。随后两三周进入美联储官员密集发 声期，预计将引发市场剧烈波动。 未来两月利率决议的预期 近期美联储主要官员表态显示，鲍威尔称当前政策处于有利位置，可等待更多数据再考虑调整，其措辞较之前更显积极，暗示 秋季可能降息。对于7月降息，理事沃勒和鲍曼持开放态度，而鲍威尔、威廉姆斯等六位决策者则态度谨慎。 据"美联储观察"数据，6月20日市场预计7月降息概率仅8.3%，9月概率为63.9%。到6月27日，7月降息概率升至20.7%，9月概率 则飙升至94%。目前焦点仍聚集于9月，但需留意7月降息概率的抬升。美联储通过官员密集发声引导预期，是典型的市场预期 管理手段。 【重要声明：上述内容及观点由第三方合作平台智昇提供，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。】 本文出自百利好，转载请注明。 美联储干预市场的其他手段 公开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach 1000 yuan per gram in the second half of 2025, analyzing current market dynamics, core driving factors, and risks involved [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Continued demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which maintain gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - Global central banks are accelerating "de-dollarization," with 95% planning to increase gold reserves by 2025, driving up demand for gold [1]. - Expectations of monetary policy easing, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, which would weaken the dollar and benefit gold [2]. - Resilience of inflation, where persistent global inflation would highlight gold's anti-inflation properties [3]. - Supply-demand imbalance, with limited gold reserves that can be mined for about 16 years and a slow increase in mined gold, while investment demand surged, with a 29% increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024 and a 24.54% year-on-year increase in domestic gold bar consumption [4]. Group 2: Risks Pressuring Gold Price Increase - Short-term correction pressure due to technical adjustments, as evidenced by a drop of over 160 USD in international gold prices in June 2025, leading to a nearly 50 yuan per gram decline in domestic gold jewelry prices [5]. - Market sentiment reversal could occur if geopolitical tensions ease or if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking [6]. - Policy expectations may not materialize; if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [7]. - Weak physical consumption, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to decline by 24.69% year-on-year in 2024, as high gold prices suppress demand [8]. Group 3: Feasibility Analysis for 1000 yuan/gram Target - Historical reference indicates a medium probability (50%) for gold prices to exceed 1000 yuan per gram if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, geopolitical tensions escalate, and central bank purchases exceed expectations [9]. - A high probability (40%) scenario suggests gold prices will fluctuate between 780-950 yuan per gram, driven by policy and sentiment [9]. - A low probability (10%) scenario indicates a deep correction if global risks diminish and the dollar strengthens [9]. Group 4: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Conservative households should allocate 5%-10% of their assets to gold, equating to 5,000 to 10,000 yuan for a 1 million yuan asset base [12]. - Avoid chasing high prices, as current gold prices are at historical highs, presenting greater risks than rewards [13]. - Suggested investment tools include physical gold bars for long-term inflation protection, gold ETFs for swing trading, and paper gold for short-term leveraged operations, each with associated risks [14]. - Recommended operational discipline includes staggered buying if gold prices drop below 750 yuan per gram and setting stop-loss orders at a 10% decline while locking in profits at every 10% increase [15]. Conclusion - A breakthrough to 1000 yuan per gram requires multiple favorable conditions to align, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a temporary touch of this price point but unlikely to sustain [16]. - A more neutral outlook indicates a likely range of 800-950 yuan per gram with volatility exceeding 25% warranting caution [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are on an upward trend, recently surpassing the $3,320 mark, with potential targets at $3,350 and $3,400 if key resistance levels are broken [1][5] - The US dollar continues to decline due to concerns over increasing government deficits and uncertainties regarding trade agreements, reaching a near four-year low against the euro [3][4] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed down nearly 0.5% at 96.77, amidst internal disagreements within the Republican Party regarding President Trump's proposed tax and spending plan, which is projected to increase national debt by $3.3 trillion [4] Group 2 - Recent trading patterns show that gold has rebounded after touching support levels in its upward trend channel, indicating strengthened bullish momentum and a potential target of $3,400 [5] - The daily chart suggests that gold prices have returned above the 60-day moving average, reinforcing bullish prospects, while the weekly chart indicates that the market remains in a tug-of-war phase with significant retracement demand [4][5] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on a range-bound approach, with key support levels at $3,306 and $3,290, and resistance levels at $3,330 and $3,345 [5]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, influenced by President Trump's pressure on the Fed [1][2] - Gold prices have shown a positive trend, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.83% to $3315.00 per ounce, and gold ETFs seeing significant inflows [1] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with expectations of a potential rate cut later this year and three cuts anticipated next year [1][2] Group 2 - Upcoming negotiations on tariffs between the U.S. and other countries are expected to create volatility in market sentiment, impacting economic conditions [2] - The Fed is concerned that increased tariffs could lead to rising inflation, while Trump is advocating for rapid interest rate cuts, raising questions about the Fed's independence [2] - The complexity of macroeconomic and political factors may lead to potential missteps in the Fed's monetary policy, posing risks to the U.S. economy and inflation control [2]

智通财经7月1日电，花旗表示，由于中东地缘政治局势缓和以及全球经济增长前景改善，预计黄金价格 在第三季度将在3100美元至3500美元/盎附近盘整。 ...