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隆基绿能再度升级BC2.0产品 BC产能有望快速放量
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-04-16 11:43
Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy is advancing in the BC technology field, launching the upgraded Hi-MO 9 module equipped with BC2.0 technology, aiming to lead the photovoltaic industry towards higher efficiency, reliability, and returns [2][3]. Group 1: Technology Advancements - The Hi-MO 9 module has begun mass production, showcasing significant technological breakthroughs: conversion efficiency increased to 24.8%, bifacial rate over 80%, and power output reaching 670W, which enhances the capacity by 6.4% compared to TOPCon products [3][4]. - The company has accumulated orders of 30GW for its HPBC series modules, with a backlog exceeding 40GW, covering over 30 countries and regions [3][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Longi Green Energy initiated the "BC revolution" in 2021 and fully transitioned to BC technology in 2023, with plans for comprehensive mass production of BC second-generation products by 2025 [5][8]. - The company is expected to achieve 50GW of BC second-generation capacity by the end of the year, supported by a complete BC industrial chain from upstream equipment to downstream modules [7]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to see a significant increase in BC technology adoption, with projections indicating that by 2025, domestic BC shipments could approach 50GW, achieving a market penetration rate of 7% [7][8]. - The global BC module shipment volume is expected to exceed 160GW by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 85% from 2024 to 2027, leading to a market size exceeding 120 billion yuan [7].
实地探访|协鑫集成芜湖基地:TOPCon满产提效中,布局BC主要对标分布式市场
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-03 13:53
在探访协鑫集成芜湖基地时,公司管理层对第一财经记者介绍称,截至2025年2月,公司GPC2.0电池效 率突破27.5%;预计在今年二季度推出GPC3.0产品,效率预计超过27.8%。 4月伊始,第一财经记者实地探访了协鑫集成芜湖基地,并与相关业务负责人就公司产能爬坡情况、光 伏技术迭代和新产品后续量产计划等内容作交流。 "目前公司GPC效率爬坡速度超预期,有望提前实现规模化量产。"在实地探访协鑫集成芜湖基地时,协 鑫集成管理层对第一财经记者介绍,截至2025年2月,公司GPC2.0电池效率突破27.5%,较去年12月底 提升0.4个百分点。"公司预计在今年二季度推出GPC3.0产品,效率预计超过27.8%。" 协鑫集成为协鑫集团有限公司旗下A股上市公司,光伏组件业务贡献公司的营收主要增量。近两年,该 公司组件业务收入占比增加,系统集成业务占比降低,2023年组件业务收入占比攀升至历史新高。截至 2024年底,该公司已建成合肥、芜湖、阜宁三大生产基地,形成30GW高效组件与16GW N型TOPCon电 池的年产能规模。 记者实地探访的协鑫集成芜湖一期电池产能以TOPCon为主,同时储备有BC电池及叠层技术。20 ...
晨报|左侧布局BC设备
中信证券研究· 2025-03-14 00:15
Group 1: BC Equipment and Manufacturing Industry - BC is currently the most visible expansion direction, with leading manufacturers planning to add 40-65 GW/year of BC capacity from 2024 to 2027, alongside a significant increase from the existing 780 GW TOPCon upgrades [1] - BC technology offers significant equipment flexibility, primarily involving 2-3 laser processes and 1 coating process, with a notable increase in the use of LPCVD equipment [1] - Risks include slower-than-expected technological advancements in BC, reduced willingness to upgrade battery capacity, and potential market competition deterioration [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Debt Market - Some commercial banks have recently sold bonds from OCI and AC accounts to realize floating profits, which may amplify market impacts in a volatile debt market [2] - The current selling behavior of banks is not expected to trigger a market panic, with short-term adjustments facing less pressure compared to long-term [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - Hohhot has introduced new childbirth subsidy details, with the maximum subsidy reaching 100,000 yuan per child, indicating a potential nationwide rollout of similar policies [4] - If extrapolated nationwide, the fiscal subsidy scale is estimated to reach 901 billion, 1,363 billion, and 1,825 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, still falling short of international standards [4] Group 4: Defense and Aerospace Industry - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights deep-sea technology for the first time, indicating a focus on deep-sea development and potential investment opportunities in acoustic and titanium materials [6] - Risks include accelerated competition among countries, potential underperformance in enterprise capacity expansion, and fluctuations in raw material costs [6] Group 5: Coal Industry - The coal sector has seen improved expectations, leading to a rise in stock prices, driven by high dividend styles, stable thermal coal prices, and optimized stock structures [8] - The bottom price expectation for coal is becoming clearer, with potential price increases if demand improves and inventory decreases [8] Group 6: Property Services Sector - The historical issues facing private property service companies have dissipated, with strong dividend attractiveness and sustainable cash flow [10] - The upcoming 2024 annual reports are expected to confirm high dividends and a vision for stable long-term development [10] Group 7: Tin Industry - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo could lead to a significant reduction in global tin supply, potentially increasing tin prices above 300,000 yuan/ton [12] - The expected supply gap in 2025 may widen due to the suspension and slower-than-expected recovery of Myanmar's tin mines [12] Group 8: New Materials in Military Industry - Defense spending is projected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for military materials and potential valuation recovery for upstream companies [13] - The military industry is at a turning point, with significant demand expected to be released in 2025 [13]
机械|左侧布局BC设备,能见度与弹性兼具
中信证券研究· 2025-03-14 00:15
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth potential of Back Contact (BC) battery technology in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting its high technical barriers and economic viability, with major manufacturers planning substantial capacity expansions from 2024 to 2027 [1][2][4]. Capacity Expansion - Major manufacturers are expected to add 40-65 GW/year of BC capacity from 2024 to 2027, with existing TOPCon capacity of 780 GW undergoing upgrades for greater output [1][4]. - The planned capacity for leading domestic BC manufacturers includes Longi Green Energy at 107.5 GW, with incremental additions projected for the years 2024 to 2027 [5]. Economic Viability - The cost of mature production capacity is around 0.69 CNY/W, while BC technology offers a premium of 0.05-0.1 CNY/W, indicating a favorable economic outlook [2][4]. - The estimated market space for BC laser equipment is projected to reach 4.75 billion CNY by 2027, while the market for BC coating equipment is expected to reach 6.5 billion CNY [4]. Technological Advancements - BC technology requires significant upgrades in laser and coating equipment, with laser device value increasing from 4-20 million CNY/GW in TOPCon to 50-60 million CNY/GW in BC [6][7]. - LPCVD coating technology is anticipated to see increased adoption due to its suitability for BC applications, with its penetration rate expected to rise significantly [8]. Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that BC technology will create investment opportunities in laser and coating equipment, as leading manufacturers are likely to upgrade their capacities in a counter-cyclical manner [10].