5月15日晚，阿里公布2025财年第四季度及全年业绩，财报显示阿里第四季度营收同比增长7%但不及预 期，净利润同比大幅增长。其中，淘天营收同比增长9%，88VIP数量持续双位数增长，阿里云季度收入 增长18%，AI收入连续七个季度三位数增长。 在随后的财报分析师电话会上，阿里表示：云业务的营收增速提升到18%，其实最主要的是还是受益于 AI相关的需求的带动 AI相关的需求就是连续七个季度有三位数的增长，那这个增长其实大量的都是，就是有很多新的企业 都在使用AI服务。 阿里进一步表示，未来几个季度阿里云的营收增速还在处于一个上升通道： 基于传统的 CPU 的计算，在转向 AI 计算，所以就我们现在看到的情况而言，我们对未来几个季度阿里 云的营收增速还在处于一个上升通道，还是抱有一个比较强的信心。 阿里指出，推理需求的爆发尚未完全体现在本次财报中： 新的客户的需求，大部分是他的推理应用或者推理场景推动的这些需求，而实际上他们的真正的大规模 的上限可能是在后面这几个月逐渐的上线。 也许是2 月份、 3 月份，甚至 4 月份、 5 月份，所以我觉得后面几个月的增速可能看上去会更接近于预 测的正常的工作情况。因为一二三 ...

Core Insights - JD.com has achieved a significant milestone with its food delivery service, surpassing 20 million daily orders within 75 days of launch, a remarkable acceleration from reaching 10 million in just 22 days [1][2] - The upcoming "618" shopping festival will see JD.com integrating national subsidies with its own 10 billion yuan subsidy for food delivery, offering consumers substantial discounts [2][5] - The competition in the food delivery and instant retail sectors is intensifying, with major players like Meituan and Taobao also launching aggressive promotional strategies [2][4] JD.com Developments - JD.com is positioning its food delivery service as a core component of its retail strategy, emphasizing high order frequency and user retention [2] - The company has introduced a "Super Delivery Day" event, allowing consumers to purchase items at significantly reduced prices [2] - JD.com is also collaborating with Xiaohongshu to enhance its marketing reach, allowing product links to redirect to JD's platform [6] Market Competition - The "618" festival is expected to be a battleground for food delivery services, with all major platforms offering substantial subsidies and promotions [2][4] - Taobao has upgraded its instant retail service to "Taobao Flash Sale," enhancing its competitive stance against Meituan [3] - The overall participation of merchants in the "618" festival may be lower than expected due to concerns over early promotions leading to consumer fatigue [5] Consumer Engagement - JD.com plans to provide daily subsidies exceeding 1,000 yuan per person during the "618" festival, aiming to boost consumer engagement [1][2] - The integration of national subsidies with JD's promotions is anticipated to drive higher sales volumes, particularly in electronics and home appliances [5] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a push for higher consumer participation, despite some merchants expressing concerns about the timing and intensity of promotions [5]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is launching its 618 shopping festival on May 31, featuring a variety of promotions and discounts through its instant retail platform, JD Fresh, aimed at enhancing consumer shopping experiences and meeting diverse needs [1][9]. Group 1: Promotions and Discounts - JD Fresh will offer a "buy one get one free" promotion and a discount of 20 yuan on purchases over 99 yuan for a thousand products [1][9]. - The platform has selected over 50 products with significantly reduced prices, such as 26.9 yuan/kg for 180-day slow-raised fresh pork leg and 29.9 yuan for a box of high-protein organic milk [7]. - Collaborations with brands like Pepsi and New Hope Group will provide various promotional activities across categories including daily necessities, personal care, and beverages [11]. Group 2: Product Offerings - JD Fresh is introducing a range of self-owned brand products, including popular items like coconut water and new pre-mixed cocktails, priced affordably at 5.8 yuan per bottle [3]. - The platform is also launching innovative products appealing to younger consumers, such as a co-branded series with the century-old brand "Longhu," featuring unique items like ice cream and flavored candies [5]. - Seasonal promotions will include themed events like "Beef Festival" and "Shrimp Festival," offering high-quality imported beef and various shrimp products at discounted prices [9]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement - The shopping experience is enhanced with fast delivery options, allowing consumers to receive orders in as little as 30 minutes through various online channels [1]. - New users can benefit from a 77 yuan coupon package, with additional discounts on their first orders, while JD Plus members enjoy free shipping [11]. - The festival will cater to different shopping scenarios, including special selections for Children's Day, Dragon Boat Festival, and Father's Day [11].

Core Insights - The recent competition in the food delivery market has intensified with Ele.me and JD.com entering the fray, aiming to capture market share and consumer attention during the May Day holiday [3][4][5] - The battle is not just about food delivery but is part of a larger strategy involving instant retail and the reconfiguration of the "new retail" concept by Alibaba [4][10] - The competition highlights the importance of logistics infrastructure and delivery efficiency, with Meituan currently holding a significant advantage over its rivals [8][18] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Ele.me's entry into the market coincided with a surge in consumer demand, with over 39 cities reporting record-breaking order volumes during the May Day holiday [5] - The competition is characterized by aggressive subsidies, with both Ele.me and JD.com using these tactics to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [9][14] - The market is witnessing a shift towards "mind share" rather than just user acquisition, as companies aim to establish their brands in the minds of consumers [9][22] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Meituan leads the market with a daily order volume of approximately 60 million, while Ele.me's orders range between 20 to 30 million, indicating a significant gap [7][8] - Meituan's logistics capabilities, including a large fleet of delivery personnel and advanced algorithmic dispatch systems, provide it with a competitive edge [8][18] - Both Alibaba and JD.com are focusing on integrating their services to enhance operational efficiency and consumer experience, with a particular emphasis on instant retail [10][21] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The competition is seen as a critical move for JD.com, which has recently fallen behind in e-commerce rankings, necessitating a strong push into instant retail [10][11] - Alibaba's strategy involves leveraging Ele.me's infrastructure to support its broader ecosystem, aiming to create a seamless consumer experience across various platforms [15][17] - The ongoing battle is expected to evolve into a "mind war," where the focus will be on establishing consumer habits and preferences rather than just competing for market share [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the retail industry in China, particularly focusing on the competition between major players like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan in the instant retail and food delivery sectors. It highlights how Alibaba's Taobao is re-entering the market with a new strategy to leverage its massive user base and traffic to compete effectively in the instant retail space [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition between JD.com and Meituan has escalated into a full-scale war in the instant retail sector, prompting Alibaba to respond strategically [3][4]. - Alibaba's Ele.me announced a significant subsidy initiative, while Taobao launched its "Flash Purchase" service, indicating a shift in focus towards instant retail [4][10]. - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, and potentially 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [12][13]. Group 2: Strategic Responses - Alibaba's approach to integrating its instant retail services into Taobao's main interface reflects a strategic pivot to enhance visibility and user engagement [4][11]. - The article notes that the historical context of Alibaba's previous attempts at entering the food delivery market, such as the launch of "Taodidian" in 2013, has shaped its current strategy [7][10]. - The competitive landscape has forced Alibaba to elevate its instant retail services from a secondary to a primary focus within its platform, indicating a significant shift in its operational strategy [11][12]. Group 3: User Behavior and Market Trends - The growth of instant retail is attributed to changing consumer habits, with a notable increase in online consumption driven by community group buying and fresh food delivery services [11][12]. - The article emphasizes that the efficiency gap between online and offline retail has narrowed, making it essential for companies to adapt to the evolving market dynamics [11][12]. - As younger consumers mature and urbanization progresses, the demand for local services is expected to rise, further solidifying the market foundation for instant retail [12][13].

作 者丨陶力 编 辑丨巫燕玲 在监管部门出手后，轰轰烈烈的外卖"价格战"或告一段落。 5月1 3日，据央视新闻报道，近日，市场监管总局会同中央社会工作部、中央网信办、人力资 源社会保障部、商务部，针对当前外卖行业竞争中存在的突出问题，约谈京东、美团、饿了 么等平台企业。 市场监管总局要求，相关平台企业应严格遵守法律法规规定，严格落实主体责任，主动履行 社会责任，加强内部管理，合法规范经营，公平有序竞争，共同营造良好市场环境，切实维 护消费者、平台内经营者和外卖骑手的合法权益，促进平台经济规范健康有序发展。 针对此次约谈，京东、美团、饿了么三家平台尚无回应。 这也意味着，过去两个月来高举高 打的外卖行业价格战，烈度或降低。 有平台和商家私下说，"目前也不能说补贴完全停下来， 还是要看情况，只能走一步看一步。 但过去几个月这种激烈的平台战，估计是不能持续了。 " 在线下商家日渐依赖线上渠道的环境下，京东希望低价引流，加大补贴，争取订单量向竞争 对手美团看齐。但是，行业需要互利互惠，平台、用户、商家、骑手等各方都需要平衡。 平台如果只是用"外卖"引流，也就不会真正关心行业的发展。餐饮食品的价格眼下已经是"极 限中求 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 陶力 上海报道 在监管部门出手后，轰轰烈烈的外卖"价格战"或告一段落。 5月13日，据央视新闻报道，近日，市场监管总局会同中央社会工作部、中央网信办、人力资源社会保 障部、商务部，针对当前外卖行业竞争中存在的突出问题，约谈京东、美团、饿了么等平台企业。 市场监管总局要求，相关平台企业应严格遵守法律法规规定，严格落实主体责任，主动履行社会责任， 加强内部管理，合法规范经营，公平有序竞争，共同营造良好市场环境，切实维护消费者、平台内经营 者和外卖骑手的合法权益，促进平台经济规范健康有序发展。 针对此次约谈，京东、美团、饿了么三家平台尚无回应。这也意味着，过去两个月来高举高打的外卖行 业价格战，烈度或降低。有平台和商家私下说，"目前也不能说补贴完全停下来，还是要看情况，只能 走一步看一步。但过去几个月这种激烈的平台战，估计是不能持续了。" 在线下商家日渐依赖线上渠道的环境下，京东希望低价引流，加大补贴，争取订单量向竞争对手美团看 齐。但是，行业需要互利互惠，平台、用户、商家、骑手等各方都需要平衡。 平台如果只是用"外卖"引流，也就不会真正关心行业的发展。餐饮食品的价格眼下已经是"极限中求生 存 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of 42.10 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant acceleration in revenue growth for the company, with a 1Q25 total revenue of 16.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. This is an improvement compared to the revenue growth rates of 14.8% and 11.3% in 3Q24 and 4Q24 respectively, primarily driven by increased demand for medications due to a flu season shift and a recovery in consumption of health and medical devices [1][2]. - The non-IFRS net profit for 1Q25 reached 1.77 billion RMB, with a non-IFRS net profit margin of 10.6%, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest quarterly figure in the past two years. This improvement is attributed to the recovery in high-margin health product sales and the scaling benefits of self-operated businesses [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its O2O delivery experience by increasing investments in self-operated front warehouses in 2025, which is expected to provide ammunition for future business investments [1][2]. Revenue Growth and Business Development - The company estimates that its three main product categories—medications, health products, and medical devices—achieved year-on-year growth rates of over 30%, 20%, and high single digits respectively in 1Q25. The surge in medication sales is particularly notable due to the flu season shift [2]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a mid-double-digit revenue growth trend in 2Q25, even after the flu season impact subsides, supported by ongoing improvements in instant retail business capabilities and consumer sentiment [2]. - The parent company, JD Group, is actively developing instant retail and delivery services, which is expected to enhance user traffic on the main JD platform, benefiting the company through increased sales opportunities and improved profit margins [2]. AI and Healthcare Applications - The company is advancing the application of AI technology in its healthcare services, including specialized disease treatment and health management. The launch of the "AI Jingyi" product system in January 2025 aims to provide intelligent diagnostic assistance and research support to doctors [3]. - The "Jingyi Qianxun" medical model was launched in February 2025, becoming the first fully open-source vertical model in the domestic healthcare industry. Over 80% of doctor consultations in the company's internet hospital utilize AI services, with a satisfaction rate of 91% for AI nutritionist services [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 4.41 billion, 4.69 billion, and 4.97 billion RMB respectively. The target non-IFRS PE valuation for 2025 is set at 28 times, with a target price adjustment to 42.1 HKD due to currency fluctuations [4][14]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are kept unchanged at 66.2 billion, 71.9 billion, and 77.6 billion RMB respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of 13.8% in 2025 [12][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][8] Core Views - The report highlights that JD's revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 15.8% year-on-year to 301.1 billion RMB, exceeding both consensus expectations and Huatai's forecasts [1][2] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 43.4%, driven by better-than-expected operating profit in the retail segment [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new business segments, particularly food delivery, and their potential impact on overall growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - JD's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 263.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.3% year-on-year increase, with operating profit at 12.8 billion RMB, up 37.8% [2][11] - The retail segment's active buyer count grew over 20% year-on-year, marking six consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [2][3] New Business Focus - The food delivery business has seen rapid growth, with daily order volume approaching 20 million, and management is focusing on optimizing user experience and ROI [3][4] - The synergy between instant retail and traditional e-commerce is noted as a significant opportunity for enhancing user engagement and conversion rates [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report adjusts the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 22.0%, 14.5%, and 10.6% to 40.2 billion, 49.8 billion, and 58.0 billion RMB respectively, due to higher-than-expected investments in new businesses [4][19] - The target price is set at 51.24 USD per ADS and 199.61 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting an increase based on improved valuations of the company and its investments [4][22]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the "certainty" of JD's electronic products and the "potential" of instant retail have been underestimated [1][2] - JD's Q1 2025 financial report indicates a strategic shift in the e-commerce giant's approach, showcasing strong revenue growth and profitability [1][3] Financial Performance - JD reported total revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly three years [1][12] - Adjusted net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 43.4% [1] - The retail segment generated revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [12] Business Segments - Revenue from the 3C home appliance category grew by 17.1%, also a three-year high, contributing significantly to overall revenue [2][12] - New business initiatives, including instant retail, drove a 14.9% year-on-year growth in the supermarket segment [2] GMV Insights - Internal estimates suggest JD's actual GMV for 2024 is close to 4.5 trillion yuan, positioning it firmly within the top three e-commerce platforms [2][4] - The article discusses the controversy surrounding GMV rankings, with JD previously reported as fourth but internally believed to be third [4][6] Strategic Positioning - JD's business model of "self-operated + self-built logistics" has created significant barriers to entry and competitive advantages in the market [15][16] - The company has established a strong brand presence and user loyalty through its efficient delivery services and customer-centric policies [16][17] New Business Developments - The new business segment, including the food delivery service, generated 5.75 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year increase [19] - Despite increased losses in the new business segment, the overall impact on JD's profitability remains manageable, with strategic investments aimed at enhancing core business performance [20][22] Competitive Landscape - The article concludes that the competitive dynamics among the top three e-commerce platforms remain stable, with each platform carving out its niche [24][25] - Future competition will focus on JD's instant retail capabilities, Alibaba's AI initiatives, and Pinduoduo's overseas expansion efforts [25]