Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, focus on the verification of economic facts. After the Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US, pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export". The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising, and the "tax rate + quota" restriction model may impact global trade. For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the short term and stagflation allocation in the long term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Bureau, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations. However, exports to the US decreased by 21% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%. Labor-intensive product exports were significantly impacted. On May 20, the central bank lowered the one-year and five-year LPRs to 3% and 3.5% respectively. The one-month Hibor fell below 1% for the first time since 2022, and the Hong Kong dollar is set to record its largest monthly decline since 1983. The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US achieved substantial progress, and both sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [2] - The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising. The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction model. The impact on global trade depends on the negotiation process with other countries. The US Treasury Secretary warned that if no trade agreement is reached before the tariff suspension period expires in early July, tariff rates will return to previous levels. The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since November 2023. The Japanese 20-year bond auction demand dropped to its lowest level since 2012, and the 30-year yield reached a new high since 1999. The Bank of Japan will maintain the current Japanese government bond reduction plan after the spring of the 2026 fiscal year [2] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] To-Do News - On May 20, the central bank lowered the one-year and five-year LPRs by 10 basis points. The Hong Kong one-month Hibor fell below 1% for the first time since 2022, and the Hong Kong dollar is set to record its largest monthly decline since 1983. The Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once in 2025 and may act earlier if the tariff negotiations make progress. The BIS warned that if investors unwind positions in the $113 trillion foreign exchange swap market, it may trigger a scramble for the US dollar. The Japanese 20-year government bond auction demand dropped to its lowest level since 2012, and the 30-year yield reached a new high since 1999. The Bank of Japan will maintain the current Japanese government bond reduction plan after the spring of the 2026 fiscal year. Putin said that Russia favors a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis after a call with Trump [2][5] Macroeconomic - The report includes charts such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 large and medium-sized cities' commercial housing transaction area (weekly and daily), five listed steel consumption volumes, 10Y and 2Y China-US Treasury yield spreads, US dollar exchange rate against major currencies on a weekly basis, US dollar index trend, and interest rate corridor [6] Interest Rates - The report includes charts of the 10Y and 2Y China-US Treasury yield spreads [6][15] Foreign Exchange - The report includes charts of the US dollar exchange rate against major currencies on a weekly basis, US dollar index trend, and interest rate corridor [6][17]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline, with expectations of a small adjustment following interest rate cuts. The short-term outlook indicates a higher probability of filling the gap downwards, while the long-term view suggests that fundamental weaknesses will continue to drive the bond market to new highs [20][4]. - The A-share market is showing continued volatility, with small-cap stocks performing actively while high-position stocks are retreating. This indicates ongoing rotational increases in the market, expected to persist until trading volume effectively breaks through 1.5 trillion [24][4]. - The U.S. stock market has broken through key resistance levels, increasing the likelihood of new highs. Corporate buybacks are providing support, with the S&P 500 recovering the previously mentioned resistance level of 5700 points [29][30]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and dividends are expected to rotate upwards. The market is currently seeing a shift towards consumption and pharmaceuticals, with new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals attracting more capital [24][4]. - The commodity market is experiencing a decline, with the Wenhua Commodity Index down by 0.22%. The market does not perceive the recent interest rate cuts as significantly stimulating demand [36][4]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB against the USD at 7.2194, appreciating by 50 basis points. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 due to favorable impacts from U.S.-China trade relations [34][6]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Indicators - The May LPR (Loan Prime Rate) has been released, with both the 5-year and 1-year rates lowered by 10 basis points. The 5-year LPR is now at 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR is at 3% [40][41]. - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumption supported by policy measures [41][40]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has highlighted the need to address "involution" in competition, which distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition [41][40].

包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的两位美联储官员暗示，鉴于尚不明朗的经济前景，政策制定者可能在 9月前不准备降低利率。 威廉姆斯周一在抵押贷款银行家协会组织的一次会议上表示："我们不可能在6月或7月就弄清楚发生了 什么。这将是一个收集数据、更清晰地了解情况并观察事态发展的过程。" 美联储最近的三次会议将分别在6月、7月和9月举行。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一在接受采访时也表达了类似的观点，暗示在近期内不愿调整利率。 博斯蒂克则对通胀以及公众对未来物价上涨的预期表示特别担忧。他说："考虑到我们的两项使命，我 非常担心通胀方面，主要是因为我们看到预期出现了令人担忧的变化。" 博斯蒂克表示，如果特朗普政府正在进行的贸易谈判拖延下去，"那将把（明确形势的时间）进一步推 迟到夏季，在这种情况下，我们在之后的几个月内实际上都无法知道真正的影响会是什么。" 周一早些时候，博斯蒂克指出，政策制定者需要等待"三到六个月"才能看到事情如何解决。他说，贸易 谈判仍有可能更快地取得进展，关税降幅可能超过预期。 他说："在那种情况下，我们或许能够提前采取一些行动，因为在控制物价水平方面，我们可能不需要 做那么多工作。" 威廉姆斯也继续强 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.4%，降息25个基点的概率为8.6%。美联储7 月维持利率不变的概率为66.9%。 公告解读 5月20日，中国央行开展3570亿元7天逆回购操作，投标量3570亿元，中标量3570亿元，操作利率为 1.40%，与此前持平。 周二(5月20日)，离岸人民币香港银行同业拆息(CNH HIBOR)显示：主要期限利率多数下跌；其中隔夜 HIBOR回落19个基点至1.43212%。一周期的HIBOR小跌至1.61091%，两周期HIBOR跌至1.61000%，一 年期HIBOR小跌至1.97606%。 继今年2月降息后，澳洲联储周二降息25个基点，符合普遍预期，利率水平降至3.85%，为两年来首次 跌至"3"字头。 5月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布的新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示，1 年期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。与上个月相比，1年 和5年期LPR各下降10个基点。 LPR数据一览 | 历年LPR调整一览表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | ...

5月20日，工商银行、中国银行、建设银行、农业银行、邮储银行、交通银行六大国有行下调人民币存 款利率。其中，活期存款下调0.05个百分点至0.05%，各期限定期存款挂牌利率下调0.15-0.25个百分 点，一年期存款利率均跌破1%。 同日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期和5年期以上LPR双双下降0.1个百分点至3%、 3.5%。市场对本轮LPR与存款利率下调已有预期，此前在国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功 胜宣布，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点； 同时，潘功胜表示，央行也将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 建设银行最新存款利率。（数据来源：建设银行网站） 5月20日，工商银行、中国银行、建设银行、农业银行、邮储银行、交通银行六大国有行宣布下调人民 币存款利率；其中，活期存款下调0.05个百分点至0.05%，各期限定期存款挂牌利率下调0.15-0.25个百 分点，一年期存款利率均跌破1%。 以建设银行为例，活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%；定期整存整取三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期 均下调15个基点，分别为0.65% ...

商 品 研 究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 贵金属基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、特朗普分别与俄乌元首通话，普京称愿与乌方共同起草和平备忘录；泽连斯基称愿与俄签署和平 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 5 月 20 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 754.14 | 0.58% | 758.02 | 0.97% | | | 黄金T+D | 754.09 | 0.95% | 753.05 | 0.34% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3220.90 | 0.56% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3 ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary expressing skepticism towards Moody's, labeling it as a "lagging indicator" [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that tariff discussions are focused on 18 key partnerships, warning that tariffs could revert to levels seen on April 2 if negotiations are not sincere [1] - Exports from the EU to the U.S. surged by 59% ahead of Trump's "liberation day," resulting in a record trade surplus [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's president reported constructive discussions with the U.S. regarding foreign exchange issues, asserting that Switzerland is not a currency manipulator [1] - ECB Governing Council member Villeroy hinted at the possibility of lowering interest rates below 2%, indicating no reason for a further 50 basis point cut in the foreseeable future [1] - ECB Chief Economist Lane announced that an updated strategy will be released in the second half of the year, incorporating U.S. tariff uncertainties into June's forecasts [1] Group 3 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ueda Shinichi, indicated that if the economy and prices improve as predicted, further interest rate hikes will continue [1] - Canadian Finance Minister noted that most tariffs on the U.S. remain in place [1]

低波动加大，测试MA60阻力，预计锡价区间震荡走强。操作上，建议短线逢回调多头思路，关注26.1-26.8 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 265770 | 3700 6月-7月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 160 | 140 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32721 | 147 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 31510 | 801 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 1799 | 1288 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2790 | 0 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 8719 | -190 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 420 | -25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 8179 | -60 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 265000 | 2900 长江有色市场1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties have different trend judgments, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, different futures varieties are judged as short - biased, oscillating, or long - biased [5]. - For various futures varieties, corresponding trading strategies and trend analyses are provided, such as maintaining a long - term mindset for stock index futures, considering a steeper yield curve for bond futures, etc. [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - US trade relations have eased. The State Council Tariff Commission has adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods from the US. International investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China and the outlook for the Chinese stock market [7][8]. - The US 4 - month CPI was lower than expected, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders are betting on Fed rate cuts in September and October [7]. - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the US and Saudi Arabia have reached a large - scale commercial agreement [8]. - The US House of Representatives is promoting a tax bill, and the US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU [9]. Futures Varieties Analysis Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to possible style drifts. The market has digested the impact of the China - US joint statement, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [11]. Bond Futures - It may be better to consider a steeper yield curve for bonds, and it is advisable to remain moderately cautious. The inter - bank funds are loose, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [12]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The focus of the market game is on whether the spot price will further decline and whether shipping companies will announce and implement price increases in June. The contract trend in the second half of the year is highly uncertain [13]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are under pressure to rebound at a low level. The actual orders and demand outlook are worrying, and the USDA supply - demand report is negative [13][14][15]. Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating. There is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The expected increase in supply restricts the upward space of sugar prices [16][17][18]. Oils and Oilseeds - Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short term, and soybean meal is also expected to be weak [19][20]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The sitting - fruit situation varies by region, and the inventory is at a low level in the past 6 years [20]. Jujubes - Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may oscillate at the bottom [20][21]. Pigs - The futures price is at a discount, and the long - short situation is stalemated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand may decline [21]. Crude Oil - In the long - term, the oil price is expected to decline. In the short term, the rebound space is limited due to the easing of the trade war [22]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, and it is necessary to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the increase in production [22]. Plastics - L and PP are expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment and increased export demand for downstream products [23]. Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the digestion of macro and emotional factors [23]. Methanol - Adopt a short - term small - scale rebound strategy, but be cautious as the supply pressure is large [23]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate under the influence of the macro market, and the spot price is showing signs of loosening [23]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is expected to have limited downward space in the short term, and glass is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the inventory is stable with price support [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to the possible postponement of maintenance when the price rises continuously [26]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The futures price may rebound after offsetting the short - term tariff impact, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Pulp - The fundamentals are short - term oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [29]. Logs - The short - term is expected to oscillate. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long - term [30]. Urea - The UR2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a short - term short strategy can be adopted if it rises significantly [30]. Synthetic Rubber - The raw materials and finished products are oscillating strongly. Take profit when the price rises and buy again after the callback [31]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy at low prices. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - term short strategy. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upward space, and the 07 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [32]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, but the medium - and long - term is still weak. Pay attention to the cost support level [33][34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price fluctuates with macro policies, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The price is in a downward channel [35][36][37]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a range - trading strategy without a clear trend [38].

4. 波兰央行官员Litwiniuk：秋季可能是推动利率"稳健调整"的好时机。今年利率的总变动可能达到125 个基点。 5. 中美会谈联合声明公布，美指刷新日高至101.93，为一个月来新高；非美货币普遍走低，美元/日元 日内涨近2%，欧元/美元跌超1%，英镑/美元跌近1%。 6. 欧洲央行——管委西姆库斯：美国关税拖累欧元区经济增长，需要进一步降息；执委施纳贝尔：中期 通胀风险可能偏上行。欧洲央行将保持稳健，将利率维持在当前水平附近。 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（5月12日） 3. 乌克兰的欧元现金储备大幅增加，其以欧元计价的国际资产所占比例仍然很低，在5月初达到10%。 7. 美联储——威廉姆斯：不确定性将继续成为货币政策格局的决定性特征；博斯蒂克：在不确定性增加 的情况下，调整政策并不明智；穆萨莱姆：在关税对通胀的影响变得明显之前不应承诺降息。 8. 英国央行——货币政策委员格林：工资和通胀指标正朝着正确的方向发展，但仍然偏高；首席经济学 家皮尔：不应忽视薪资对通胀的长期上行压力；可能需要调整利率步伐；副行长隆巴尔代利：政策受到 英国的通胀回落进程推动。 1. 匈牙利央行行长瓦尔加：需要采取 ...