金十期货4月23日讯，沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.16%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌 0.53%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约跌0.05%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.63%。 股指期货午盘收盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view [6] Core View - The current bullish and bearish factors are domestic policy expectations and external tariff disturbances respectively. Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. The US tariff negotiations are not optimistic, with some countries taking a tough stance, while Trump shows an intention to ease tariffs on China. With overall positive news, the stock index rose generally today. Under the domestic and foreign loose expectations, the small and medium - cap stock indexes performed better and showed a unilateral upward trend. However, there are still significant external uncertainties, market sentiment is cautious, and the historical percentile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is at a low level below 5% [6] Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index which closed slightly lower, the rest of the stock indexes closed higher. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 12.6749 billion yuan. In the futures index, IH declined with increasing volume, while the other varieties rose with increasing volume [4] Important Information - The LPR quotation in April remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.10%, the same as last time; the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.60%, also the same as last time. - Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the US [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | 0.66% | - 0.08% | 1.85% | 2.27% | | Volume | 7.751 | 4.2261 | 8.7317 | 22.2169 | | Volume change compared to previous period | - 1.855 | - 0.712 | - 1.0559 | - 2.5927 | | Open interest | 247448 | 81204 | 204265 | 317103 | | Open interest change compared to previous period | 532 | 1637 | 1584 | 819 | [7] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.45 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.27 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.99 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 104.1405 | | | Trading volume change compared to previous period (billion yuan) | 12.6749 | [8]

现货白银日内涨幅达1.5%，上触及33美元/盎司，报33.01美元/盎司。 ...

股指期货午盘收盘 金十期货4月21日讯，沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约涨0.50%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌 0.06%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约涨1.38%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨1.76%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic situation shows a weak stabilization, with fiscal and monetary policies remaining loose. In the short - term, the index may rebound, and investors are advised to wait and see. There are anti - arbitrage opportunities in the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures due to the high basis rate [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: The 4 - month Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.6% and the 1 - year LPR at 3.1% [2]. - **Overseas News**: The US President pressured Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates for two consecutive days [2]. - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range oscillation last week with shrinking trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the main funds had a net outflow of 92.5 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 5.6 billion yuan. Technically, the CSI 300 index was below the 40 - day moving average, and its short - term trading volume declined. In the short - term, the index may rebound, and investors are advised to wait and see [2]. 3.2. Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price Trends**: Index futures oscillated after a rebound, and the market trading volume declined [6]. - **Basis**: The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there are anti - arbitrage opportunities in the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [6]. - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, the SSE 50 large - cap stocks have risen by 15.94%, while the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have fallen by 0.39% [6]. - **Futures Contracts**: - IF2506: Closed at 3708.8 this week, up 0.60% from last week, with a trading volume of 249,795 and an open interest of 139,841, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 1.79 [4]. - IH2506: Closed at 2633.4 this week, up 1.46% from last week, with a trading volume of 132,936 and an open interest of 44,395, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 2.99 [4]. - IC2506: Closed at 5400 this week, down 0.45% from last week, with a trading volume of 187,555 and an open interest of 100,600, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 1.86 [4]. - IM2506: Closed at 5642 this week, down 0.53% from last week, with a trading volume of 723,087 and an open interest of 168,687, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 4.29 [4]. 3.3. Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the boom - bust line; the interest rate was 1.66%, below 3%; the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7%, returning to normal [9]. - **Profit**: The year - on - year net profit of A - share companies in the first three quarters turned from a decline to an increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 increased year on year [9]. - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was 1.66%, up 2 basis points from last week [9]. 3.4. Index Fund and Valuation Changes - **Funds**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 5.6 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the main funds of A - shares had a cumulative net outflow of 92.5 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [14]. - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. For example, the rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index is 11.65, and the quantile is 36% [11][14]. 3.5. Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals**: - **Macro Environment**: In the medium - long term, the currency is loose, the interest rate is low, and the domestic economy shows a weak stabilization (bullish) [18]. - **Earnings**: The year - on - year earnings of A - shares in the first three quarters increased (bullish) [18]. - **Funding**: The margin trading funds decreased, and the main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish) [18]. - **Valuation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which provides medium - long - term support for the index (bullish) [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - long - term moving average, with a decline in trading volume, and short - term wide - range oscillation (neutral) [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 18 日） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面稳定股市的预期明确 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。沪深两市全天成交额 9995 亿，较上个交易日缩量 1124 亿。 股指成交量能低于万亿，表明目前投资者观望情绪较高。由于一 ...

1. Index Trends - On April 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.15%, closing at 3267.66 points with a trading volume of 456.33 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27%, closing at 9858.1 points with a trading volume of 620.861 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.41% with a trading volume of 225.752 billion yuan, opening at 5938.57, closing at 5914.03, with a daily high of 5949.86 and a low of 5872.29 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell by 0.44% with a trading volume of 161.901 billion yuan, opening at 5625.0, closing at 5602.53, with a daily high of 5626.68 and a low of 5567.03 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.24% with a trading volume of 72.435 billion yuan, opening at 2624.2, closing at 2634.59, with a daily high of 2637.75 and a low of 2615.37 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 24.5 points from the previous close. Sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, and Electronics significantly dragged the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 24.61 points from the previous close. Sectors like Electronics, Computer, and National Defense and Military Industry had a significant downward pull on the index [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 2.09 points from the previous close. Sectors such as Banking, Household Appliances, and Food and Beverage pulled the index up, while Computer, Basic Chemicals, and Electronics dragged it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 6.38 points from the previous close. Sectors including Banking, Food and Beverage, and Non - Banking Finance pushed the index up, while Pharmaceutical Biology, Basic Chemicals, and Electronics pulled it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 30.23, IM01 of - 124.59, IM02 of - 232.38, and IM03 of - 403.73 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 25.94, IC01 of - 99.32, IC02 of - 183.93, and IC03 of - 315.12 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 12.95, IF01 of - 32.35, IF02 of - 64.15, and IF03 of - 115.64 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 4.31, IH01 of - 11.15, IH02 of - 21.94, and IH03 of - 54.49 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides 15 - minute average data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts [23][25][27].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The current market has basically priced in the negative impact of overseas tariff policies and the positive impact of domestic policies, and the impact of tariff policies on the A-share market has diminished. With a relatively quiet news background, the trading volume of the two markets has continued to shrink, approaching 1 trillion yuan. Today, the large-cap stock index was relatively resilient, and the dividend index led the gains. Market sentiment was cautious. The historical quantiles of the volume-weighted average basis of IF, IC, and IM were all below 5%, at historical lows. The market is waiting for a new round of drivers, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [6] Group 3: Market Review - Today, the stock index showed mixed performance, with the large-cap index closing higher and the small and medium-cap index closing lower. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.028 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IM declined with decreasing volume [4] Group 4: Important Information - US Treasury bonds were sold off, and the US dollar index declined, which was interpreted by the market as a significant decline in global investors' confidence in US dollar assets. US Treasury Secretary Bezant tried to downplay the impact of the recent heavy selling of US Treasury bonds, refuting the market speculation that foreign investment institutions had significantly sold off US Treasury bonds, and stating that the US Treasury Department has a "policy toolbox" to deal with abnormal turbulence and market imbalances in the Treasury bond market, including increasing the Treasury Department's repurchase of Treasury bond assets [5] - Major cities have successively released their 2025 land supply plans or annual housing development plans. Under the policy orientation of strictly controlling new supply, the supply of residential land in most cities has significantly decreased this year [5] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Group 6: Futures Index Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -0.12%, 0.08%, -0.09%, and -0.22% respectively [7] - The trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 93,397, 45,782, 92,479, and 225,722 respectively [7] - The trading volume changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 0.0759, -0.2514, 0.6933, and -0.8173 respectively [7] - The open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 266,683, 93,043, 213,688, and 332,317 respectively [7] - The open interest changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 3,409, -456, 2,548, and -1,397 respectively [7] Group 7: Spot Market Observation - The percentage change of the Shanghai Composite Index was 0.15% [8] - The percentage change of the Shenzhen Component Index was -0.27% [8] - The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 0.86 [8] - The trading volume of the two markets was 107.7194 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.028 billion yuan compared to the previous period [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面稳定股市的预期明确 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅反弹。股市全市场成交额 13127 亿元，较上日缩量 780 亿元。随 着股指触底反弹，关 ...

沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.11%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌0.22%，中证500股指期 货（IC）主力合约跌0.04%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.06%。 股指期货早盘开盘 ...