地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 5 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 3 月 5 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，烧碱触及涨停，SC ...

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地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 商品表现 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 25 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。沪锡、铂涨超 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on February 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Shanghai Silver rose over 12%, Lithium Carbonate rose over 10%, Container Shipping European Line and SC Crude Oil rose over 6%, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Platinum rose over 5%, and Palladium and Butadiene Rubber rose over 4%. On the downside, Polysilicon fell over 4%, and Coke and Live Pigs fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [4][5]. 2. Core Views - The overall futures market showed a pattern of more rises than falls, and different varieties were affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, with different short-term trends [4][5]. 3. Variety Analysis Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved high, with a slight increase. The US customs policy changed, and the supply and demand of copper showed a marginal improvement expectation. With the downstream recovery, copper demand is expected to increase, and the short-term copper price is mainly volatile and strong [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and moved high, with a significant increase. Affected by seasonal and holiday factors, the supply was tight in the short term. The policy window period and positive price predictions stimulated the market, and the short-term trend was strong [8][9]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ members will maintain the production plan, US oil inventories decreased, and the winter storm may stimulate demand. The Iran - US negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short-term crude oil price is expected to be strong and volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply and demand were weak, and the开工 rate and production were at a low level. The Venezuelan crude oil supply was restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to take a reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, the企业开工率 was at a low - to - neutral level, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The cost increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. It is recommended to continue to narrow the L - PP spread [13][14]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, the downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The new production capacity was put into operation, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. Continue to narrow the L - PP spread [15]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price decreased, the PVC开工率 was at a neutral level, the inventory was high, and the real - time demand was weak. However, there are policy and maintenance expectations, and the price is expected to be volatile [16][17]. Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved low, with a decline. The import coal supply recovered, the domestic mine开工率 was low, and the downstream demand lacked incremental support. The short - term price is under pressure [18]. Urea - The urea futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price rose. The Indian tender supported the market sentiment. With the upcoming spring plowing season, the price is expected to be stable and strong, but the increase may be limited [19][20].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the close on February 9, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some metals rising significantly and some falling. The prices of various futures varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and seasonal patterns [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 9, platinum rose nearly 11%, silver futures rose over 8%, palladium rose over 7%, tin futures rose over 6%, lithium carbonate and gold futures rose over 3%, caustic soda rose over 2%, and international copper and copper futures rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, styrene (EB) fell over 2%, and log, ferrosilicon, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), manganese silicon, coke, asphalt, and apple fell over 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, lithium carbonate 2605, and rebar 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and ten - year treasury bonds 2603 had capital outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper Futures - On February 9, copper futures opened high and moved higher. The output in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%. The demand showed an increase in December 2025, but downstream procurement decreased during the holiday. The market is affected by factors such as changes in the Fed's expectations, the proposed improvement of the copper resource reserve system, and the traditional consumption off - season. In the short - term, it will be mainly in a narrow - range shock, and the long - term outlook for copper prices is optimistic [9][10] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. The average price increased slightly. The supply in February will decrease due to maintenance. The export from Chile in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand decreased during the holiday in February, but is expected to increase in March. The inventory is gradually shifting to the downstream. The price has stopped falling and stabilized, but it is difficult to rise sharply in the short - term, and the market is mainly in a consolidation phase [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected due to winter storms, but the global floating storage is high, and the supply is still in an oversupply situation. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asia. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have ended "temporarily", and the Iranian geopolitical risk is uncertain. The US - India trade and the Russia - Ukraine situation also affect the oil market. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate within a range in the near future [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased last week, and the expected output in February will decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it has increased. Some refineries have resumed production, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also decreased. The proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 9, the plastic start - up rate remained stable at a relatively high level. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the order volume decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate increased slightly, while the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export order volume decreased after the price increase. The social inventory increased, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend. The supply of coking coal has shrunk significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will also be restricted during the Spring Festival. The downstream winter storage is coming to an end, and the inventory is shifting to the downstream. The downstream steel trading volume is poor. The coking coal is expected to be in a weak consolidation state [21][22] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and moved high, showing a strong trend. The order - receiving situation before the Spring Festival is acceptable, and the price is stable. The gas - based devices have basically resumed production, and the production will be normal during the Spring Festival. The agricultural demand is good, and the industrial demand is weakening. The factory inventory is slightly digested. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected that the spot price is unlikely to drop before the festival, and the futures will fluctuate in a narrow range [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 25, 2025, the domestic futures market showed mixed performance. Some commodities like polysilicon and platinum had significant gains, while palladium and others declined. Different commodities had their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and the market trends varied. For example, copper was affected by potential strikes and production changes; lithium carbonate was influenced by downstream demand and inventory; and crude oil was affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand balance [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 25, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon and platinum rose over 4%, while palladium fell over 7%. Among stock index futures, IM rose 1.16%, and among bond futures, TL fell 0.24%. In terms of capital flow, platinum 2606 had an inflow of 526 million, while silver 2602 had an outflow of 4.354 billion [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: Opened high and closed low with an intraday increase. Potential strikes in Chile, rising processing fees, and increased production affected the market. Copper foil remained prosperous, but downstream demand was weak, and caution was needed for potential corrections [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened low and closed high. High production capacity utilization, increased production, and strong downstream demand supported the price. However, the end of the peak season and potential supply increases required caution [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ planned to suspend production increase. Demand season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine issue influenced the market, and a supply - surplus situation persisted. It was recommended to wait and see [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased, and demand varied by region. Concerns about Venezuelan heavy - oil exports affected the market. It was expected to fluctuate, and the Venezuelan situation should be monitored [15]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 was low, production capacity increased, and demand was weak. The supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, and the upward space was limited. The L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17]. - **Plastic**:开工率 was neutral, downstream demand declined, and new production capacity was added. The upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][20]. - **PVC**: Supply decreased slightly, downstream demand was weak, inventory was high, and new production capacity was added. The upward space was limited during the traditional off - season [21]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and closed flat. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. The market was under pressure [22][23]. - **Urea**: Opened flat and closed up. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was stable, and inventory decreased. It was expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 23, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum hit the daily limit, lithium carbonate and palladium rose over 5%, and silver futures rose over 4%. On the other hand, ethylene glycol (EG) dropped over 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), logs, and red dates fell over 1%. Different futures varieties have different trends and influencing factors, and investors are advised to make decisions carefully [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Performance - **Futures Market Overview**: As of the close on December 23, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Platinum hit the daily limit, lithium carbonate and palladium rose over 5%, and silver futures rose over 4%. In terms of declines, ethylene glycol (EG) dropped over 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), logs, and red dates fell over 1%. Index futures and treasury bond futures also showed different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [5][6]. - **Futures Index Performance**: The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.12%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.22%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 0.04%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 0.15%. The main contract of 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS) rose 0.07%, the main contract of 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF) rose 0.17%, the main contract of 10 - year treasury bond futures (T) rose 0.26%, and the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.89% [6]. - **Capital Flow**: As of 15:21 on December 23, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 2.004 billion yuan, lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 876 million yuan, and platinum 2606 had an inflow of 835 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 2603 had an outflow of 633 million yuan, Shanghai copper 2602 had an outflow of 568 million yuan, and Shanghai aluminum 2602 had an outflow of 256 million yuan [6]. Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: On the day, Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong trend during the day. In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.76%). SMM predicts that the electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (an increase of 5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper foil maintains a high - growth level, but copper products are affected by various factors, and the market is mainly characterized by a relatively strong and volatile trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate opened flat and moved high, rising nearly 6% during the day. This week, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 83.52%, significantly higher year - on - year. The downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, and lithium iron phosphate has a price - increase expectation, which supports the price increase of lithium carbonate at the raw - material end. However, the end - of - season demand and the uncertainty of mine resumption need to be further observed, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production of the organization in 2026. Eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. The global crude - oil market is still in a pattern of oversupply, but the geopolitical situation in Venezuela has heated up, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side shows that the asphalt start - up rate has declined, and the expected production volume in December has decreased. The downstream start - up rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The market is concerned about the export of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil and its impact on domestic asphalt production. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [13]. - **PP**: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased. The enterprise start - up rate is at a neutral - to - low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15]. - **Plastic**: On December 23, the start - up rate of plastic increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that plastic will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][17]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped. The PVC start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has also declined. The export situation is not good, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and it is expected that the upward space for PVC in the near future is limited [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened high and moved high, rising nearly 2% during the day. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the sentiment has recovered and rebounded, the upward height is limited, and investors should beware of sentiment cooling [19][20]. - **Urea**: The futures price opened high and moved high during the day. The spot price is stable, and the supply pressure is not alleviated. The demand is mainly supported by the winter - storage production of compound fertilizers. The inventory is mainly concentrated in the winter - storage areas, and it is expected that the inventory - reduction amplitude will narrow. The market has limited positive factors, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback [21].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 12, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department 1. Market Performance Summary - As of the close on December 12, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shanghai Tin rose over 4%, Shanghai Silver rose over 3%, polysilicon, Shanghai Zinc, and International Copper rose over 2%, while Shanghai Copper and Platinum rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, Liquefied Gas and Coking Coal dropped over 4%, Red Dates and Coke dropped over 3%, and Glass, Eggs, and PVC dropped over 2% [6]. - Among stock - index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Stock - Index Futures (IF) rose 0.68%, the main contract of SSE 50 Stock - Index Futures (IH) rose 0.71%, the main contract of CSI 500 Stock - Index Futures (IC) rose 1.27%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Stock - Index Futures (IM) rose 0.68%. Among treasury - bond futures, the main contract of 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) dropped 0.01%, the main contract of 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) dropped 0.08%, the main contract of 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) dropped 0.13%, and the main contract of 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) dropped 0.70% [7]. 2. Individual Commodity Analysis 2.1 Copper - Shanghai Copper opened and closed higher, rising nearly 2% on the day. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which will be reflected in January's data. December production is expected to increase due to previous restarts. The production of copper strips in sample enterprises was 1.49 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production rhythm slowed down due to rising costs, and enterprises were cautious. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor shipments and inventory accumulation. After the price increase, downstream demand was weak, and inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, the copper price rose due to the Fed's potential rate cut and positive signals from a macro - economic meeting, but downstream buying interest was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance is expected to be tight and the price is expected to be strong [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high but closed lower. In November, production continued to grow, and although the growth rate slowed down with the arrival of the off - season for salt - lake lithium extraction, production is expected to increase by about 3% in December due to frequent upstream capacity expansion news. This week, the capacity utilization rate was 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year, supported by price increases and high downstream demand. The potential supply increase has not materialized as CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased in November. Although downstream production continued to grow, the growth rate slowed down. The incremental demand for energy storage needs further verification. From January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively year - on - year, and the peak season is coming to an end. Overall, the growth of energy - storage demand and new - energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and lithium carbonate inventory is expected to increase. In the short term, supply and demand remain strong, but caution is advised as the downstream peak season nears its end [10][11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2024. The peak demand season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventory was less than expected, while the increase in refined - oil inventory exceeded expectations. US crude oil production slightly increased and is near the historical high. The Trump administration is promoting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US has been falling. The US and Russia have not reached an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine issue, and the US is still pressuring Ukraine. G7 and the EU are considering banning Russian oil - export shipping services. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela. Geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continues to fall. The Fed's December meeting has ended, and the market is still worried about crude oil demand. The number of US oil - drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and Middle - East exports have increased. The global floating storage of crude oil has increased, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's No. 3 SPM is expected to resume operation around the 15th. Iraq has resumed production at the West Qurna 2 oilfield. Overall, the crude - oil market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. 2.4 Asphalt - The weekly asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, lower than the same period last year. In December, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year. Most downstream industries' operating rates declined, and the operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to funding and weather constraints. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% to 25.34 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased and is near the lowest level in recent years. The recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil have led to a weakening of the crude - oil price. The US's sanctions on Venezuela have raised concerns about the export of heavy - crude oil and its impact on domestic asphalt production. Next week, Hebei Xinhai will switch production, reducing the supply of low - price products. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction is coming to an end, and overall demand is weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has stabilized, and the basis is at a moderate level. The winter - storage policies of some Shandong refineries are unclear, and the market is cautious. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [14]. 2.5 PP - As of the week of December 12, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99%, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic - braiding industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders were slightly lower than last year. On December 12, some maintenance facilities of Zhong'an United restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 85%, at a moderate level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring PP increased to about 28%. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of PP decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance facilities has decreased. The downstream peak season is ending, orders for plastic - braiding and other products are decreasing, and the price of BOPP film has dropped again. There is no large - scale centralized procurement, and the market is lackluster. Traders are offering discounts to stimulate sales. The supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and the PP price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [15][16]. 2.6 Plastic - On December 12, the number of maintenance facilities for plastics changed little, and the operating rate remained at about 90%, at a moderate level. As of the week of December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00%. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the raw - material inventory of agricultural films has decreased again. Orders for packaging films also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of plastics decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 500,000 tons/year from ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE was put into operation in October, and 700,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in November. The operating rate of plastics has increased slightly. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the peak - season performance is disappointing. The temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and demand in the north has decreased. The price of agricultural films has stabilized after a decline. Downstream enterprises are mainly making just - in - time purchases, and the trading atmosphere is light. The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The plastic price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [17]. 2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region remained stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics' price cuts in December, export orders decreased, and social inventory increased slightly and remains high. From January to October 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased, at the lowest level in recent years, and the real - estate market needs time to recover. New capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua has been put into operation. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali production has decreased, and some enterprises' operating rates are expected to decline, but the production decline is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, and December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand. Coupled with the decline in coking - coal prices, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened and closed lower, dropping over 4% on the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 922 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. At the supply end, a large amount of imported coal is entering the domestic market at the end of the year, and Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase in December. Some domestic factories are expected to reduce production after completing their annual production tasks. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking - coal mines was 85.31%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. Although mine production has declined, downstream demand is weak, and mine inventory continues to increase. The total coking - coal inventory increased by 43.78 tons month - on - month, and the supply remains abundant. The second - round price cut for coke is expected to be implemented soon. Last week, the pig - iron production decreased by 0.93% week - on - week to 232.3 tons. Steel mills are entering the seasonal off - season, and their operating rates are expected to decline. Snowy weather over the weekend has affected transportation, and whether the price will stop falling depends on the restocking situation after the snow stops [20]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high but closed lower, dropping over 1% on the day. The spot price remained stable with minor fluctuations, and downstream buyers were观望. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1630 to 1680 yuan/ton, with lower prices in Henan and few high - price transactions. Fundamentally, after the resumption of some production facilities, daily production has increased to about 19.5 tons, but some gas - based facilities are still under maintenance, and production is expected to decline in the second half of December. Downstream buyers are mainly dealers and compound - fertilizer manufacturers. Due to the rising raw - material prices, the price of compound fertilizers is high, and end - users are reluctant to buy. Fertilizer factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the operating rate increased by 0.09% month - on - month but is still 2.97% lower year - on - year. The recovery of production is limited due to high raw - material prices and weak end - user demand. Snowy weather in North China over the weekend has affected transportation and postponed the restocking process. Inventory decreased by 4.36% month - on - month. Overall, the weather has affected market demand, weekend orders are expected to decline, the price's resistance to decline is weakening, and there is little chance of a significant short - term rebound [21][22].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]