Market Overview - Gold experienced significant volatility, initially breaking down but then rebounding sharply by $80, returning to $4100 before adjusting again, indicating ongoing competition between bulls and bears [1][4] - The market is expected to continue a sideways trend next week, with adjustments anticipated within the range of $4040 to $4110, and potential resistance at $4110 and $4142 [4][5] Economic Factors - A large-scale stimulus plan from Japan has significantly impacted the market, leading to a strong dollar and intervention from the Bank of Japan, while geopolitical tensions related to Russia and Ukraine have contributed to gold's downward movement [6] - In the U.S., manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence indices have both declined to new lows, alongside a record high in white-collar unemployment, suggesting a weakening economy and increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which is favorable for gold [7] Upcoming Data - Key economic data is expected next week, including U.S. retail sales for September, which may reflect the strength of the U.S. economy and could impact stock and bond markets [8] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will also be released, providing insights into economic conditions as the market anticipates discussions around potential rate cuts in December [8] Investment Strategy - The current market conditions necessitate careful judgment of direction and trends, with a focus on entry and exit points for investments in gold [8] - A well-established trading team claims to achieve a high accuracy rate of 85% or more, emphasizing the importance of risk management and maximizing profit opportunities [8]

来源：中国黄金网 如果60天线支持有效，反弹目标为4040~4050美元/盎司、4100~4140美元/盎司区间：如果60日均线能守住，国际金价短期可能先反弹到过去区间 4040~4050美元/盎司；要是能站稳这个区间，再往上就会冲击日云区顶4100~4140美元/盎司区间，但这个位置压力不小，能不能突破还要看后续信号。 对于刚接触黄金投资的朋友来说，近期国际金价的走势可能让人摸不着头脑——10月前一路狂奔，10月中旬以后则一路回调，11月虽有反弹但力度很弱， 后续还会不会跌、什么时候能涨，成了大家最关心的问题。其实只要理清核心逻辑，就能看懂国际金价的后续走向。 当前国际金价的核心现状：反弹无力，短期仍有下跌压力。 10月中旬开始，国际金价进入回调通道，主要是因为市场的避险情绪降温了。虽然11月有过一次技术性反弹，但没能突破10月跌浪菲波61.8％关键阻力 位，还很快回落至菲波38.2％下方，这说明反弹缺乏足够的资金和信心支撑，下跌趋势暂时没有被打破。 从技术层面看，有3个信号值得注意。一是多个周期的指数平滑异同移动平均线指标（MACD）指标呈现"死亡交叉"，这是偏向下跌的信号；二是国际金 价已经跌破了5日、 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its gold price target for mid-2026 from $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of over 12% from current levels [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing asset classes in 2025, with an increase of nearly 60% year-to-date, stabilizing above $4,000 per ounce [3]. - In October, gold prices reached a historical high of nearly $4,400 per ounce before retreating below $4,000 [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - Key factors supporting the rise in gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and declining real yields, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and changes in the U.S. domestic policy environment, particularly related to upcoming midterm elections and increasing fiscal risks, are also significant supports for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Changes in Demand Structure - The demand structure for gold is evolving, with increased participation from institutional investors and notable purchases by central banks [7]. - UBS estimates that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 900 tons in 2026, significantly higher than the annual average of 450 to 500 tons from 2010 to 2021 [7]. Group 4: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Multiple Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are optimistic about gold prices, with Goldman predicting a price of $4,900 by the end of 2026 and JPMorgan projecting a range of $4,975 to $5,062 per ounce [12][13]. Group 5: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - UBS recommends that ordinary investors allocate around 5% of their total assets to gold to enhance portfolio diversification and provide a buffer against systemic risks [16]. - The firm suggests a strategy of buying on dips, indicating that investor allocation to gold remains insufficient [16]. Group 6: Future Price Predictions - UBS anticipates that gold prices may consolidate around $4,300 after the U.S. midterm elections in 2026, with potential to reach $4,900 if political and financial risks escalate [18]. - The trend of central banks and investors purchasing gold is likely to continue, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global economic and political uncertainties [18].

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Recent global market turmoil is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on interest rate cuts, leading to increased volatility across asset classes [3][4][5] - Concerns over AI sector sustainability and geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the decline in various asset prices, particularly in the tech sector [4][5][6] Group 2: A-shares and H-shares Outlook - The current adjustments in A-shares and H-shares are seen as emotional disturbances rather than fundamental changes, with expectations for policy support and foreign capital inflow remaining positive [6][7] - Analysts maintain a long-term optimistic view on A-shares and H-shares, anticipating a healthy recovery despite potential short-term volatility [6][7][8] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The outlook for gold remains positive due to anticipated global monetary expansion, although its risk-return profile may decline as economic conditions stabilize [9][10] - Analysts highlight that gold serves as a hedge against rising debt levels and geopolitical risks, reinforcing its long-term investment appeal [10][11] Group 4: Oil Market Projections - The oil market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with prices projected between $60 and $70 per barrel due to weak demand and OPEC's production strategies [14][15] - Geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics will continue to influence oil prices, with a cautious outlook for significant price increases [15][16] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - A-shares are viewed as having superior investment value, with a focus on sectors like technology and high-end manufacturing, while also considering defensive positions in high-dividend stocks [16][17] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment favors a diversified approach, balancing risk and return across various asset classes [17][18] Group 6: Risks to Monitor - Key risks include potential economic data surprises from the U.S. and geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment and liquidity [18][19] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has not alleviated concerns over liquidity, and ongoing uncertainties in economic performance may affect global asset markets [19][20]

Group 1 - The recent global market turmoil is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on interest rate cuts, concerns over AI sector sustainability, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [4][5][6]. - A-shares and H-shares are viewed as having long-term strategic opportunities despite recent adjustments, with expectations for policy support and foreign capital inflow remaining intact [8][9]. - The outlook for A-shares and H-shares is positive, with analysts suggesting that the current market environment presents a window for investment [8][9][10]. Group 2 - Gold is expected to remain a strong asset in the medium to long term, supported by global monetary expansion and increasing central bank purchases [11][12][13]. - Analysts predict that the global stock market will continue to trend upwards, driven by liquidity and risk appetite, although caution is advised regarding inflation and geopolitical risks [14][15][16]. - The oil market is anticipated to experience a range-bound trading pattern, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [17][18][19]. Group 3 - A-shares are considered to have superior investment value, with a focus on high-growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, while also incorporating defensive strategies [20][21]. - The investment landscape for 2026 is expected to favor A-shares, H-shares, gold, and short-term U.S. Treasuries, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [21][22]. - Attention should be paid to liquidity and geopolitical risks, particularly in light of potential economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [23][24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The gold price is oscillating around the $4,000 mark, lacking the momentum to break through and rise. When it falls, it attracts bottom - fishing funds, but overall, it has not escaped the range - bound pattern. The employment market in the US is cooling, and the Fed's monetary policy is short - term bearish for gold. Also, some countries may sell gold due to fiscal pressure, increasing its volatility. Short - term gold prices may face a callback risk [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 18.4% week - on - week to - 4.26 yuan/gram. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) dropped by 108.8% to - 1.82 yuan/gram. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.65%. The SPDR ETF holdings decreased by 0.33% to 1040.57 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 10.3%. The US Treasury yield decreased by 1.9% to 4.06%, and the US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 100.15 [12] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.91%. Oil prices fell by 2.2%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.25%. The US dollar index rose by 0.89%, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.06%. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.95%, and the VIX index rose to 23.4. The real interest rate oscillated and closed at 1.83%, and the gold price fell by 0.5%. The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index rose by 0.89% [18][20][21] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed and developing country stock markets fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.95% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.9%. US and German bonds declined, with a US - German spread of 1.38%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.56%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.778%. The euro depreciated by 0.94%, the pound by 0.55%, the yen by 1.2%, and the Swiss franc by 1.8%. The US dollar index rose by 0.89% to 100.2, and most non - US currencies depreciated [23][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position data resumed publication, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly decreased to 1040 tons. The RMB slightly depreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold and silver prices fell, and the gold - silver ratio rose to 83 [35][38] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index, and November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders, new home sales, and November Chicago PMI. Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index, Fed's Beige Book, and ECB October interest rate meeting minutes. Friday: France and Germany's October CPI [39]

澳新 银行表示， 黄金价格已从近期4380美元的峰值回落，目前交投于4000美元附近。尽管如此，市场 基本面依然稳固，投资需求旺盛且央行购金势头强劲。当前美国劳动力市场、通胀与消费者支出领域的 风险平衡态势，预示着美联储下月有望降息25个基点。经济增长放缓、股市估值过高、地缘政治不确定 性以及全球资金从美国资产转向多元化配置等因素，预计将持续支撑稳健的投资需求与央行购金趋势。 白银表现继续优于黄金，黄金白银价格比率已降至80。十月零售投资增长令现货市场供应趋紧，进一步 助推了白银强势。（格隆汇） ...

来源：中国商报 美联储降息预期突变。随着近日市场调整对美联储降息的预期，美元上涨，黄金价格震荡。高盛认为， 支撑黄金的因素直至明年都将继续提供支撑，尤其是考虑到各国央行仍是大买家。 美联储降息升温 据最新消息，美国劳工统计局取消了其10月CPI报告的发布，该部门称鉴于美国政府此前"停摆"，无法 追溯收集部分数据。 美国劳工统计局表示，它可以获取当月的部分价格数据，并将在11月的报告中"尽可能"发布10月的数 据。11月的CPI报告将于12月18日（美联储年内最后一次议息会议之后）发布。 另外，由于10月的数据缺失，11月发布的数据将不包括该月的月度百分比变化。 需要注意的是，美联储12月议息会议结果公布是在当月11日。此前，11月非农就业报告改期至12月16日 发布，这意味着，美联储官员在议息会议前无法获得关键的11月CPI报告及非农就业报告。 美国纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场的降温，美联储在近期仍有进一步降息的空 间，以将政策立场调整至更接近中性水平。 作为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有永久投票权的副主席，威廉姆斯的表态被视为政策前瞻指引的 重要信号。分析人士认为，美联储官员的"鸽派" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed a rebound in job creation, exceeding expectations, despite an increase in the unemployment rate [1] - The Federal Reserve's reliance on data is decreasing, which lowers the probability of interest rate cuts in December, although there remains an optimistic outlook for future rate cuts due to negative impacts from the government shutdown [1] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold prices is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating in future pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to focus on direct investments in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Group 1 - UBS raised its mid-2026 gold price target from $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and strong demand from central banks and ETF investors [1][2] - The firm also increased its upside target for gold to $4,900 per ounce due to potential spikes in political and financial risks, while maintaining a downside target of $3,700 per ounce [1] - Analysts expect strong demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2026, but caution that a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and the risk of central banks selling gold remain significant challenges [1] Group 2 - Gold ETF inflows reached 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, indicating an increase in investor appetite [2] - UBS analysts believe that jewelry demand is not as weak as previously feared and recommend investors to buy on dips, suggesting a moderate single-digit percentage allocation to gold in investment portfolios [2] - UBS's global wealth management strategists emphasize that gold remains a crucial component of resilient investment strategies [2]