证 券 研 究 报 告 战略引领，挖掘区域投资弹性 2025年建筑装饰中期投资策略 证券分析师：袁豪 A0230520120001 唐猛 A0230523080003 研究支持： 唐猛 A0230523080003 联系人： 唐猛 A0230523080003 2025.6.4 要点：战略引领，挖掘区域投资弹性 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 年初至今固定资产投资增速放缓，制造业、地产均呈现压力，总量偏弱背景下，基建投资保 持相对稳定，公用事业、水利形成支撑。 ◼ 区域投资有望随国家战略布局而获得弹性。2025年作为"十四五"收官、"十五五"谋划 之年，承上启下作用凸显，结合当前市场经济环境，中西部产业转移、西部大开发、城市更 新、低空经济、"一带一路"倡议等均有望在"十五五"期间迈入新的发展阶段。 ◼ 低估值破净央国企估值修复。建筑企业资产主要为应收账款类，长期现金流和资产可变现能 力遭遇质疑，市场估值折价，近两年国资委强调央企资产质量考核，聚焦价值创造能力，企 业端收入、利润承压背景下依旧保持分红政策稳定。展望未来，随着证监会市值管理办法、 公募新规等政策出台，同时企业经营受 ...

Domestic News - The central government plans to support 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, with over 20 billion yuan for urban renewal actions, aiming to establish a sustainable urban renewal mechanism and address infrastructure shortcomings [2] - In the first four months of this year, 5,679 old urban residential areas were renovated nationwide, with six regions, including Hebei and Chongqing, having a renovation rate exceeding 50% [2] - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 1.24 million units in May, a year-on-year increase of 38% and a month-on-month increase of 9%, with cumulative sales from January to May expected to be 5.22 million units, up 41% year-on-year [2] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced that it will conduct pilot programs for the integration of human resources services and manufacturing in about 30 cities to promote high-quality employment [2] International News - The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth and a 1.3% year-on-year growth for the first quarter of 2025 [3] - The U.S. White House announced an increase in import tariffs on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50% to address national security threats and enhance domestic industry competitiveness [3] - Thailand's manufacturing sector saw its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rise from 49.5 in April to 51.2 in May, indicating a return to expansion after two months of contraction [3]

Core Insights - The "Huayanli" stone gate building complex in Zhangyuan, Shanghai, is set to be repositioned this Saturday, marking a significant development in the ongoing renovation of the area [3] - The underground space development in Zhangyuan will commence after the repositioning of "Huayanli," which will include commercial, cultural, and parking facilities, as well as connections to multiple subway lines [3][4] Group 1 - Zhangyuan, known for its historical significance, is the largest and most well-preserved stone gate building complex in Shanghai, with over 140 years of history [4] - The repositioning of "Huayanli" involves the use of 432 small walking robots, allowing the buildings to move at an average speed of 10 meters per day since May 19 [3][5] - The construction challenges in Zhangyuan are notable due to the narrow alleys and the need to protect historical buildings while conducting renovations [4] Group 2 - The construction team plans to introduce over 10 types of construction robots to address the difficulties of large equipment operation in the city center during the underground development phase [4] - A mini pile driver has been developed to facilitate construction in tight spaces, allowing for the installation of engineering piles within the buildings [4] - Custom-built small excavation robots have been designed to navigate the narrow alleys, utilizing advanced technology for intelligent obstacle avoidance and path planning [5]

截至2024年底，咸阳市常住人口城镇化率达61.55%，连续两年增幅居全省地市第一。 一条条背街小巷干净整洁，一个个老旧小区旧貌换新颜，改造后的乡村新房鳞次栉比……近年来， 咸阳市抢抓新型城镇化和城乡融合发展新机遇，不断推进县城和小城镇建设，实现公共服务设施提标扩 面、环境基础设施提级扩能。 如今，经过改造，曾经破旧的河岸道路焕然一新。城隍庙景区背后269米的土路变身平坦的水泥 路，路旁建起了古色古香的文化走廊。李明德在家门口也种上了牡丹，闲暇时就在家门口散步。"现 在，这条背街上的游人不比城隍庙少。我家像是有了个美丽的花园。"李明德说。 老旧小区换上美丽"新装" 咸阳市秦都区恬梦园小区，建于本世纪初，因年久失修，存在屋面漏水、外墙开裂、楼道内墙皮脱 落、弱电通信线路凌乱等现象，严重影响了小区居民生活，被列为今年秦都区老旧小区重点改造项目之 一。 "这次改造的重点是屋面，要给屋面整体铺贴防水卷材，避免渗水漏水。每道工序将采取'举牌验 收'制度，通过多部门联合检查确保质量。"负责小区改造的中能建西北城市建设有限公司项目经理蔡金 锁说。 背街小巷里的"诗意栖居" 5月23日，记者走进三原县城隍庙，只见飞檐斗拱、雕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidelines issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council emphasize the importance of urban renewal while preserving historical and cultural heritage, particularly in cities like Xi'an, which is rich in history and culture [1][2]. Group 1: Urban Renewal and Cultural Preservation - Xi'an is actively exploring ways to protect and inherit its historical culture amidst rapid urban development, as highlighted by the new policies aimed at creating livable, resilient, and smart cities [1]. - The Xi'an City Wall, recognized as the largest and best-preserved ancient city wall in China, is being managed under the principle of "protection first," utilizing technology and innovative activities for the creative transformation of cultural heritage [2]. - The Xi'an City Wall's digital management platform integrates data from various aspects such as cultural relic protection, tourism operation, flood control, and emergency response, employing advanced technologies like big data analysis and AI [2]. Group 2: Historical Sites and Community Engagement - The Daming Palace National Heritage Park, a significant historical site, is part of Xi'an's efforts to protect and showcase its rich history, with a focus on scientific planning and design to present the palace ruins [3][4]. - Xi'an has developed innovative methods for utilizing historical sites, exemplified by the Daming Palace National Heritage Park and the Tang West Market Museum, which represent different investment models for heritage protection [4]. - The city has established comprehensive protection plans for various historical sites, ensuring a balance between modern urban life and the preservation of cultural heritage [4].

Core Viewpoint - Urban renewal is being actively explored across various regions, focusing on enhancing urban functions and quality while preserving historical memories and balancing commercial interests with cultural protection [1][4]. Group 1: Urban Renewal Projects - In Guizhou, the urban renewal initiative has been a key driver for high-quality new urbanization, with significant achievements including the completion of 4,316 old community renovations benefiting over 679,300 households, and the construction of 465,500 units in shantytown renovations [1]. - Beijing's urban renewal projects include over 2,000 planned initiatives aimed at improving living environments and enhancing urban construction levels, with a focus on key areas and commercial districts [2]. - The Jiangxi province has recognized the Hongdu Night Alley cultural commercial street improvement project as an exemplary case of old street renovation, investing 67.5 million yuan to enhance local culture and create over 1,000 jobs [3]. Group 2: Cultural Preservation - Beijing's new regulatory framework emphasizes the importance of historical and cultural preservation in urban planning, aiming to harmonize traditional culture with modern civilization [4]. - Jiangxi province prioritizes historical culture protection as a prerequisite for urban renewal, avoiding large-scale demolitions and focusing on organic updates that maintain the city's cultural lineage [5][6]. - The integration of cultural elements into urban renewal projects in Guizhou has resulted in improved living conditions while preserving the city's historical essence [5]. Group 3: Economic and Social Impact - Urban renewal is seen as a systematic approach to reconstructing urban functions and enhancing residents' well-being, with projects in Guizhou and Jiangxi demonstrating significant economic revitalization and cultural engagement [7]. - The transformation of the Taiping Road area in Guiyang into a trendy consumer district illustrates the potential for urban renewal to enhance economic vitality while restoring cultural memories [7]. - Jiangxi's focus on cultural innovation and heritage protection has led to the establishment of research centers and immersive cultural experiences, contributing to both cultural preservation and urban quality enhancement [7].

陈吉宁会见香港恒隆集团荣誉董事长陈启宗、董事长陈文博 今天下午，市委书记陈吉宁会见了香港恒隆集团荣誉董事长陈启宗、董事长陈文博。 陈启宗介绍了恒隆集团在沪业务发展及行业领域发展态势。他表示，上海作为国际化大都市，营商环境 优质、市场空间广阔，在沪投资营运项目业已成为标志性的合作典范。对在沪发展充满信心，将更好把 握机遇、长期深耕上海，持续加大在沪投资力度，围绕城市更新改造、重点产业发展等深化务实合作， 更好助力上海国际消费中心城市建设。 陈吉宁介绍了上海经济社会发展相关情况。他说，当前，上海正深化建设国际经济、金融、贸易、航运 和科技创新中心，以高质量发展不断提升人民群众的生活品质。恒隆集团在上海深耕发展，双方合作基 础深厚。欢迎把握城市更新、产业转型机遇，顺应消费市场和结构变化调整等趋势，更好发挥自身专业 优势，持续加大在沪投资和业务布局，积极参与城市更新改造和商办楼宇提质升级，不断拓展消费场 景、创新消费模式，推动更多首发首展首店落在上海，为上海国际消费中心建设作出更大贡献。上海将 大力营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，深化服务对接、加强政策供给，助力企业在沪实现更 大更好发展。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the real estate industry [5] Core Views - In May 2025, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 2.9% month-on-month, but the cumulative year-on-year sales from January to May decreased by 8.4% [1][2] - The report highlights that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing due to the implementation of a series of supportive policies, with regional and city-level differentiation becoming more pronounced [4][61] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2025, the total sales amount for the top 10 real estate companies was 157.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.5% [1][8] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was 1.4113 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.4% [2][33] Key Company Performances - Among the top 50 companies, 46 reported a median year-on-year sales change of -9.0% in May 2025, while the cumulative year-on-year change from January to May was +0.2% [3][40] - Notable performers in May included China State Construction (sales up 455% year-on-year) and Sunac China (sales up 128% year-on-year) [3][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive development capabilities and those actively participating in urban renewal, recommending firms like China Overseas Development and China Jinmao [4][61] - It also highlights the potential of commercial public REITs and the long-term growth prospects of the property service industry, recommending companies such as China Resources Land and China Vanke [4][62]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of preserving historical cultural heritage during urban renewal projects, exemplified by the successful transformation of the Zhonghai Dajixiang project in Beijing, which integrates traditional architecture with modern commercial elements, attracting significant foot traffic. Group 1: Project Overview - Zhonghai Dajixiang is located in the core area of Beijing and preserves numerous historical buildings from the Ming and Qing dynasties, including significant cultural heritage sites [3] - The project faced challenges in restoring historical buildings, leading to the implementation of tailored renovation plans for each structure, utilizing digital methods for precise evaluation and restoration [3] - Traditional craftsmanship was employed throughout the restoration process, adhering to principles of authenticity in rebuilding historical architecture [3] Group 2: Cultural Engagement - The project includes six cultural heritage courtyards functioning as free museums, showcasing themes like Silk Road civilization and calligraphy, allowing citizens to engage with history [5] Group 3: Space Utilization - The project creatively addresses space limitations by developing underground commercial and recreational areas, aligning with recent urban renewal policies that encourage the use of underground space [9] - The design incorporates feedback from local residents, resulting in the addition of green spaces and recreational facilities, enhancing community engagement [11] Group 4: Economic Impact - After nine years of development, Zhonghai Dajixiang fills a commercial gap in southern Beijing, with a focus on integrating urban renewal with consumer demand [13] - The project boasts a commercial leasing rate exceeding 96% and an opening rate of 91%, with over 150 premium brands, including a 50% ratio of flagship and customized stores [15] - The commercial area of 80,000 square meters features diverse offerings, blending traditional cultural elements with modern lifestyle needs [15]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions," aiming for a comprehensive urban renewal roadmap by 2030, focusing on improving living conditions, enhancing service efficiency, and protecting cultural heritage [1] Group 1: Urban Renewal Objectives - The urban renewal process is a shift from extensive expansion to qualitative improvement, addressing urban issues such as aging infrastructure and inadequate public spaces [1] - Key areas for urban renewal include dangerous housing, old neighborhoods, and urban villages, with specific strategies for each category [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Management - Emphasis on a holistic management approach to enhance urban resilience, including infrastructure upgrades and the application of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technology [3] - The document stresses the importance of balancing hardware improvements with software enhancements to enrich urban life and preserve historical culture [3] Group 3: Community and Investment - The vision includes creating safe, well-managed communities and a convenient living circle, with a focus on embedded community services [4] - Urban renewal projects require significant investment, with encouragement for public-private partnerships and the establishment of urban renewal funds [4] Group 4: Economic Impact - Urban renewal can stimulate economic growth by optimizing the use of existing assets and facilitating the transition from secondary to tertiary industries [5] - The process is expected to foster innovation in green, low-carbon, and smart technologies, enhancing the city's economic growth potential [6]