2025年06月03日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面偏弱，下行压力仍存 | 4 | | 工业硅：库存累库，盘面继续下行 | 6 | | 多晶硅：以逢高布空思路为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,100 | 620 | -1,510 | -1,510 | -2,620 ...

Core Viewpoint - The scale of asset-backed securities (ABS) registered by insurance asset management institutions reached 133.6 billion yuan in the first five months of this year, marking a year-on-year growth of 58.88%, the highest in recent years [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Insurance capital is accelerating its layout in strategic industries such as green energy and technology leasing through ABS, driven by a low interest rate environment and "asset scarcity" [1][4] - In May alone, two companies, Everbright Yongming and Dajia Asset, registered a total of 16 billion yuan in ABS products, reflecting the overall high growth trend for the year [3] - A total of 14 insurance asset management companies registered 31 ABS products in the first five months, with most scales in the tens of billions, covering underlying assets such as leasing claims and infrastructure revenue rights [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The strategy for insurance capital's ABS layout is shifting from single varieties to a diversified combination of "ABS + REITs + bonds," aiming to balance cash flow stability and asset appreciation potential [3] - Leading institutions like PICC Asset are focusing on holding-type real estate ABS and projects from "new productivity" leading enterprises to support industrial upgrades and major national projects [3] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite significant market expansion, the industry faces challenges such as the lack of a unified valuation standard and credit risk management [3] - The acceleration of overseas asset securitization by Chinese enterprises may present new opportunities for insurance capital's global allocation [3] - With the enhancement of green finance policies and the construction of the third pillar of the pension system, ABS is expected to unleash greater potential in areas like green transformation and inclusive consumption [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" with an expectation that stock performance will exceed market performance by more than 20% within six months [50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of the end of Q1 2025, the total RMB loans from financial institutions grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with foreign and domestic currency industrial medium and long-term loans increasing by 11.2%, indicating a sustained growth momentum [5][15]. - The issuance of government bonds and local government bonds accelerated, with April seeing a significant year-on-year increase of 35.3% and 101.6% respectively, reflecting the ongoing implementation of growth-stimulating policies [6][18]. - The release of the modern enterprise system aims to enhance high-quality development, emphasizing the need for improved corporate governance and innovation mechanisms [7][27]. Summary by Sections Loan Allocation Statistics - Corporate real estate loan growth remains low at 0.04% year-on-year, while personal loans show stable growth with a 3% increase [5][15]. - Infrastructure-related medium and long-term loans increased by 8% year-on-year, supported by fiscal policies [5][15]. Bond Market Activity - In April, the issuance of national and local government bonds reached 1.47 trillion and 693.29 billion RMB respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [6][18]. - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank bond market decreased by 7.5% year-on-year to 1.5 trillion RMB [6][18]. Modern Enterprise System - The new guidelines for the modern enterprise system include 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing corporate governance and management practices [7][27]. - The focus is on fostering innovation and improving the efficiency of resource allocation within enterprises [7][27]. Industry News - The banking sector saw a net injection of 656.6 billion RMB through open market operations, with SHIBOR rates showing mixed trends [43]. - The securities market reported an average daily trading volume of 1.35 trillion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week [46]. - The insurance sector is set to see an increase in participation from small and medium-sized insurance companies in long-term investment trials [34]. Market Performance - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the fintech index rising by 7.63% [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended," with an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 20% within six months [59]. Core Insights - The overall data indicates that as of the end of Q1 2025, the total RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with foreign and domestic medium to long-term loans for industry growing by 11.2%, which remains a significant factor supporting loan growth [5][14]. - The issuance of government bonds and local government bonds accelerated, with April seeing a total issuance of 1.47 trillion yuan and 693.29 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth rates of 35.3% and 101.6% [6][17]. - The release of the modern enterprise system aims to enhance high-quality development, emphasizing the need for improved corporate governance and innovation mechanisms [7][26]. Summary by Sections Loan Allocation Statistics - Corporate real estate loan growth remains low, while personal loans show steady growth. As of the end of Q1 2025, real estate loans increased by only 0.04% year-on-year, and personal housing loans decreased by 0.8% [5][14]. Bond Market Activity - In April, the bond market saw a total issuance of 1.47 trillion yuan in national bonds and 693.29 billion yuan in local government bonds, with significant year-on-year growth [6][17]. - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank bond market was 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year [6][17]. Modern Enterprise System - The modern enterprise system document outlines 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing corporate governance, management levels, and innovation incentives [7][26]. - The focus is on creating a collaborative and efficient innovation ecosystem, with a particular emphasis on improving the governance structure of state-owned enterprises and supporting private enterprises in optimizing their governance [7][26].

Group 1: Core Concept of Green Finance - Green finance is becoming a key lever for sustainable development in the global response to climate change and low-carbon transition [1] - The expansion of financial tools, including ESG investment principles and green credit innovations, injects strong momentum into the green economy [1] Group 2: ESG Integration in Banking - The core of green finance is to direct financial resources towards green industries, supporting the low-carbon transition of traditional industries and the development of strategic emerging industries [2] - ESG principles are increasingly integrated into banking credit processes, aiming to incentivize companies to improve their performance in environmental protection, social responsibility, and corporate governance [2] - Several banks have established personalized ESG evaluation systems to transform green credit business processes [2] Group 3: Impact of ESG Ratings on Credit Business - ESG ratings significantly influence banks' credit operations, serving as a basis for credit entry management and exit [3] - ESG ratings are dynamic and linked to credit management, with annual updates affecting credit ratings and limits [3] - Banks implement differentiated management measures based on ESG ratings in loan checks, pricing, and economic capital allocation [3] Group 4: Innovation in Green Financial Products - Financial authorities emphasize the importance of developing diverse green financial products and services [4] - The China Development Bank has issued sustainable development-linked loans to support high-standard farmland construction, linking water-saving rates to loan interest rates [4] - In the first four months of the year, the China Development Bank issued over 250 billion yuan in green loans, focusing on green infrastructure, clean energy, ecological protection, and pollution prevention [4] Group 5: Balancing Innovation and Risk in Green Finance - The rapid development of green finance is accompanied by increased ESG risks, necessitating a balance between innovation and risk control [5] - The enhancement of green service capabilities in the banking and insurance sectors will contribute to the maturity of China's green finance system in the long term [5] Group 6: Ecological Industry Planning - A significant challenge in developing green finance is the difficulty in converting environmental benefits from ecological projects into economic returns [7] - The EOD (Ecological Environment-Oriented Development) model integrates ecological governance projects with resource and industrial development to enhance the sustainability of the environmental industry [7] - Financial institutions are innovating financing models to support the realization of ecological product values, with some projects already showing initial success [7] Group 7: Case Study of EOD Project in Dongtou District - Dongtou District is implementing the "Dongtou Zhuwan: Common Prosperity Marine Garden" EOD project, integrating ecological governance with industrial development [8] - The China Development Bank's Zhejiang branch has provided 170 million yuan in syndicate loans to support this project [8] - Ongoing projects in the district are improving environmental quality and promoting traditional aquaculture transformation, leading to increased local income [9]

Core Viewpoint - The research paper explores how carbon reduction support tools under China's "dual carbon" goals can enhance the market value of commercial banks while fulfilling their environmental responsibilities [2][5]. Group 1: Research Framework and Background - The study employs a "signal transmission - reputation accumulation - risk governance" three-dimensional analysis framework to explain how structural monetary policy tools reshape the value creation logic of commercial banks [2][4]. - Green finance is highlighted as a bridge for integrating environmental governance with economic growth, with commercial banks playing a crucial role in green credit practices [2]. Group 2: Impact of Carbon Reduction Support Tools - The introduction of carbon reduction support tools by the People's Bank of China has linked low-interest re-lending funds directly to banks' green loan performance, aiming to guide financial resources towards green low-carbon sectors [2][5]. - The research indicates that these tools effectively enhance banks' market value through three key mechanisms: signal transmission, market reputation, and risk governance [5]. Group 3: Empirical Analysis - The first part of the empirical analysis uses a difference-in-differences model with data from 42 A-share listed commercial banks between 2020 and Q1 2023, finding that carbon reduction loans significantly increase banks' market value [6]. - The second part validates the effectiveness of the three mechanisms: - The signal transmission effect is evidenced by increased stock liquidity due to reduced information asymmetry [7]. - The market reputation effect is shown through increased positive discussions and interactions on social media platforms following banks' participation in carbon reduction loans [7]. - The risk governance effect is demonstrated by improved liquidity and risk resistance in banks that participated in the carbon reduction support tools [7]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The study suggests that carbon reduction loans in energy-saving and clean energy sectors have the most significant impact on enhancing banks' market value, indicating a need for regulatory focus in future policy designs [7]. - It also notes that carbon reduction loans, supported by low-interest central bank funds, have a more pronounced effect on banks' market value compared to regular green loans, recommending an expansion of such tools' application [7].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Association is developing a new evaluation method focused on the financial "Five Major Articles" to enhance the functionality of the securities industry [1][4]. Group 1: Evaluation Method Overview - The evaluation method consists of a total score of 105 points, with 100 points as the base score and 5 points as additional items [1]. - The base score is divided into 90 points for quantitative indicators and 10 points for qualitative indicators [1][2]. - Quantitative indicators are aligned with the five major areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with technology finance receiving the highest weight of 50 points [1][4]. Group 2: Technology Finance Focus - Technology finance is emphasized as the primary area, with 50 points allocated to it, covering aspects such as equity financing, mergers and acquisitions, bond financing, equity investment, and private equity investment [4][5]. - The scoring for technology finance includes specific allocations: equity financing (16 points), mergers and acquisitions (12 points), bond financing (10 points), and other investment types (6 points each) [4]. Group 3: Scoring Details - The scoring criteria for joint projects among multiple securities firms are more lenient for mergers and acquisitions compared to equity and bond financing [5]. - The evaluation period for equity and private equity investments is set to the last three years, focusing on investments in non-listed technology companies [6][7]. - Only the top 50 firms in each scoring category will receive additional points, creating a competitive environment favoring larger firms [7]. Group 4: Bond Financing Assessment - Bond financing is a significant component of the evaluation, with up to 30 points available across various financial categories [8]. - Green finance and inclusive finance both allocate their 10 points entirely to bond financing, while pension finance and digital finance have different assessment criteria [8][9]. Group 5: Qualitative Indicators - Qualitative indicators account for 10 points, focusing on mechanism construction and sustained business resource investment, each worth 5 points [9][10]. - Mechanism construction includes integrating the financial "Five Major Articles" into business strategies and establishing specialized organizational structures [10].

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) emphasizes its role in climate risk management and green finance, showcasing its innovative insurance products and services to enhance disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in response to climate change [1][2][3]. Group 1: Climate Risk Management - CPIC highlights the importance of insurance in disaster risk management, stating that its value extends beyond post-disaster compensation to include enhancing societal resilience through innovative products [1][2]. - The company has initiated various innovative catastrophe insurance products and established a comprehensive risk reduction management system to support economic and social resilience against climate change [3][4]. Group 2: Green Insurance Development - Since 2020, CPIC has strategically focused on green insurance, establishing a dedicated research department and collaborating with universities and international reinsurance companies to innovate in this area [2][4]. - In 2024, CPIC's green insurance premium income is projected to exceed 60 billion yuan, representing a 16.5% year-on-year growth and accounting for 30.4% of its overall business, securing the second-largest market share [2]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - CPIC has developed a comprehensive risk reduction solution covering the entire process from prevention to compensation, including the "Risk Radar" platform that provides tailored weather alerts and risk reduction services to nearly 600,000 enterprises [4][5]. - The company has formed extensive partnerships with research institutions and meteorological departments to enhance its climate risk research and improve catastrophe assessment models [5]. Group 4: Support for Western Development and Belt and Road Initiative - CPIC is committed to supporting the development of the western region of China and the Belt and Road Initiative by providing comprehensive insurance coverage for infrastructure and logistics projects [6][7]. - The company has provided over 530 billion yuan in risk coverage for cross-border rail transport and has supported more than 1,300 major projects across over 160 countries and regions [6][7]. Group 5: Future Initiatives - CPIC plans to launch more innovative cross-regional insurance products to support industrial upgrades and enhance risk management for enterprises venturing abroad [7]. - The company aims to deepen its integration of technology and insurance, utilizing satellite and security technologies to monitor overseas project operations and preemptively address disaster risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the role of Industrial Bank's Qingdao branch in empowering the cultural and tourism industry through innovative financial products and services, contributing to the city's reputation as a vibrant marine capital. Group 1: Tourism Industry Performance - During the "May Day" holiday, Qingdao's tourism group received 372,500 visitors, with a record high of 56,800 visitors on May 3, marking a 120% year-on-year increase in maritime tourism [2]. Group 2: Green Finance Initiatives - Industrial Bank's Qingdao branch has actively engaged in promoting a green and low-carbon transformation of the cultural and tourism industry, establishing a dedicated team to support the Qingdao Olympic Sailing Center's upgrade project, and providing a special loan of 1.3 billion yuan [2]. - The bank's green finance financing balance exceeded 38 billion yuan by the end of April this year, reflecting its commitment to integrating green finance with marine economy and ecological protection [2]. Group 3: Inclusive Financial Services - The bank has focused on providing warm financial services to individual merchants and citizens, creating a "cultural and creative version" of a cash wallet and enhancing merchant service efforts [3]. - A cash service guarantee mechanism has been established, with over 6,600 cash wallets distributed, totaling nearly 2 million yuan, to meet the cash needs of key industries [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bank aims to continue focusing on the full lifecycle needs of cultural and tourism enterprises, leveraging flexible financial tools and diverse products to support Qingdao's development as a vibrant marine city and an attractive destination [4].

Group 1 - The "2025 Lujiazui Forum" will be held from June 18 to 19, 2025, focusing on "Financial Openness and Cooperation in Global Economic Changes and High-Quality Development" [1] - Key speakers will include leaders from the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the Shanghai Municipal Government [1] - Over 70 domestic and foreign guests from more than 10 countries and regions will participate, including officials from financial regulatory bodies and major financial institutions [1] Group 2 - The forum will feature eight plenary sessions covering topics such as global economic changes, monetary policy coordination, capital market development, and green finance [2] - In addition to the plenary sessions, three specialized events will focus on reinsurance market development, financial law, and technology finance [2] - The People's Bank of China will host the "2025 China International Financial Exhibition" during the forum, showcasing achievements in financial reform and innovation [3] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China is accelerating policies to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, with several initiatives already announced [3] - Recent policies include enhancing cross-border financial services and supporting the establishment of a "Technology Board" in Shanghai's bond market [3] - Nearly 300 domestic and foreign institutions will participate in the financial exhibition, marking the highest number of exhibitors in history [3]