Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.17% [1] - In the U.S. market, the Nasdaq fell by 0.67%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.24%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.04% [1] - Major European indices mostly declined, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.22% and the DAX 30 down by 0.60%. The UK FTSE 100, however, rose by 1.08% [1] Commodity Market - International crude oil futures saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil up by 1.38% to $63.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 1.60% to $66.84 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.99% to $3,391.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.49% to $37.89 per ounce [2] Economic Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated that most members believe inflation risks outweigh employment risks, with concerns about high tariffs potentially impacting long-term inflation [4] - The Federal Reserve Board member Cook stated that he will not resign due to external pressures related to past mortgage applications, emphasizing the importance of addressing legitimate inquiries [5] Trade Relations - The American Soybean Association urged the U.S. government to reach an agreement with China to alleviate financial pressures on soybean farmers, highlighting that 28% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China before 2018 [5] - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister mentioned the potential for exporting liquefied natural gas to India, indicating a growing trade relationship between the two countries [8][9] Technology Developments - Google launched the Pixel 10 series smartphones, showcasing advancements in artificial intelligence, with prices ranging from $799 to $1,799 [9] - OpenAI reported a milestone of $1 billion in monthly revenue, while facing ongoing challenges related to computing power shortages [9]

此次货币政策会议上，尽管美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中除1人缺席外，9人投票支持 维持利率不变，但美联储负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒均投票支持 降息25个基点。这是30多年来首次出现2名美联储理事同时在有关利率决策的投票中表达不同意见的情 况。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约8月20日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会20日公布的7月底货币政策会议纪要显示， 美联储官员总体预期通胀在短期将升高，大多美联储官员认为通胀上行风险大于就业市场下行风险，但 对关税对物价影响的大小和通胀的持续性存在分歧。 会议纪要说，很多美联储货币政策会议的参会者注意到整体通胀依然一定程度上高于2%的长期通胀目 标，关税影响在数据中正变得更加明显。几个参与者指出关税影响在掩盖通胀的基本趋势，抛开关税的 影响，通胀已接近美联储目标水平。 参会者整体上预期通胀会在短期升高，并认为今年关税上调影响的时间、大小和持续性存在显著不确定 性。 很多参会者注意到关税上涨对消费品和服务的充分影响可能需要一些时间才能感受到，导致这一滞后的 因素包括提前囤货、向终端产品和服务转嫁成本的缓慢、合同价格的逐 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's July 29-30 meeting minutes reveal increasing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, particularly concerning tariff impacts, inflation risks, and employment market conditions [1][2] - The decision to maintain interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range was made with a vote of 9 to 2, marking the first time since 1993 that two Fed governors disagreed with the majority [1] - Officials expressed differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some advocating for more time to assess trade policy effects, while others argued that waiting for clearer signals is impractical [1] Group 2 - In the employment market, some officials noted low unemployment rates and near "maximum employment," while others pointed to slowing wage growth and reduced job creation, indicating a potential cooling in labor demand [2] - The minutes highlighted concerns about economic activity growth remaining subdued in the second half of the year, with actual income growth slowing potentially suppressing household consumption [2] - The upcoming employment report, which revised down non-farm payrolls by 258,000 for May and June, may exacerbate the Fed's internal concerns about economic slowdown [2] Group 3 - External political pressures complicate the Fed's internal divisions, with President Trump repeatedly calling for significant rate cuts and criticizing Fed Chair Powell's leadership [3] - Both Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump, are viewed as potential successors, with Waller advocating for gradual rate cuts of up to 150 basis points [3] - Powell acknowledged the strong and logical viewpoints of Bowman and Waller, emphasizing that the meeting discussions were thorough [3]

会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次美联储货币政策会议上，联储决策者对通胀、就业、特朗普政府的关 税政策影响均未有一致看法，主流观点是，相比就业，通胀的风险更让人担心。从这个角度看，本次纪 要偏鹰派。 截至7月30日的会上，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC再次决定按兵不动，但会后决议显示，两名理事 ——被传为下任美联储主席热门人选的沃勒和"特朗普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼因主张立即降 息投了反对票。这是三十多年首次出现如此多的联储理事对利率决议持异议。 美东时间8月20日周三公布的会议纪要也显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反 对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认 为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 经济方面，一些人预计美国经济活动将保持稳健，还有些人预计下半年将延续上半年的低增长。 此外，美联储官员普遍认为需要监控一些金融市场存在的脆弱性，一些人表达了对美国国债市场脆弱性 的担忧，还有人指出银行和外汇掉期方面的担忧。多人讨论了最近出台稳定币法案后此类数字资产的影 响，与会者认为，应高度关注其 ...

美东时间周三（20日），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指涨0.04%，标普500指数跌0.24%，纳指跌 0.67%。 | スロー | 175.400 -0.14% 2.14亿股 | | --- | --- | | NVDA | | | 特斯拉 | 323.900 -1.64% 7728万股 | | TSLA | | | 微软 | 505.720 -0.79% 2769万股 | | MSFT | | | 超威半导体 | 165.200 -0.81% 5994万股 | | AMD | | | 苹果 | 226.010 -1.97% 4218万股 | | AAPL | | | | Meta Platforms In... 747.720 - -0.50% 1187万股 | | META | | | 亚马逊 | 223.810 -1.84% 3653万股 | | AMZN | | | 博通 | 291.170 -1.27% 2357万股 | | AVGO | | | 谷歌-A | 199.320 -1.12% 2891万股 | | GOOGL | | | 联合健康 | 299.840 -1.45% 1662 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with a majority of decision-makers believing that inflation risks outweigh employment risks, while some view the risks as balanced, and a couple emphasize employment risks more prominently [1][4][6]. Economic Outlook - Some participants expect the U.S. economic activity to remain robust, while others predict a continuation of low growth in the second half of the year [3]. Inflation and Employment Risks - A majority of participants express concern over inflation risks compared to employment risks, with discussions indicating that the uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high [6][4]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is still slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, with many participants noting that the effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [7][10]. Tariff Impact on Inflation - Many participants believe that the full impact of tariffs may take time to manifest in consumer prices, with some indicating that domestic companies and consumers bear most of the tariff costs [8][9]. - There is a divergence of opinions regarding whether tariff increases will lead to a one-time price spike or sustained inflation, with some emphasizing the importance of maintaining stable long-term inflation expectations [10][11]. Financial Market Vulnerabilities - Participants express concerns about vulnerabilities in the financial markets, particularly regarding the U.S. Treasury market and the potential impact of stablecoins on the financial system and monetary policy [5][14]. - The discussion includes worries about high asset valuations and the ability of market makers to act as intermediaries, as well as risks associated with foreign exchange swaps [14][15]. Stablecoins and Monetary Policy - The recent developments in stablecoin legislation are expected to increase their usage, potentially enhancing payment system efficiency and raising demand for supporting assets like U.S. Treasuries [15]. - Participants emphasize the need for close monitoring of the implications of stablecoins on the banking system and overall financial stability [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate a shift among some rate setters towards potentially lowering borrowing costs, despite ongoing concerns about inflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy - Some Federal Reserve officials are moving away from hesitance regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that decisions may need to be made before fully understanding the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - The July meeting marked the first instance of voting disagreement, with Governors Waller and Bowman supporting a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, highlighting a divergence from the Fed Chair's stance [1] Leadership Implications - Waller and Bowman are noted as potential candidates for the Treasury Department following Powell's term ending in May 2026, indicating their influence within the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on May 8, 2025, signaling a potential future rate cut despite a 0.9% month-on-month increase in the PPI for July, which exceeded market expectations [1][3] - The July PPI reached its highest level since June 2022, indicating ongoing supply chain cost pressures, while non-farm employment growth was only 73,000, suggesting signs of a cooling labor market [3] - The dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a rebound in global stock markets, but a weakening dollar may exacerbate capital flow pressures in emerging markets [3] Group 2: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - On August 19, 2025, Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it harms the housing industry, and called for his resignation while suggesting a replacement [7] - Trump advocated for significant rate cuts, proposing a reduction of 300 basis points to stimulate the real estate market and economic growth, contrasting with the Fed's cautious approach to inflation [7] - Trump's scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's budget, particularly the renovation costs exceeding $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, has raised questions about its management transparency [7] Group 3: European Central Bank Warnings - ECB President Lagarde indicated that U.S. tariffs on European goods could reduce Eurozone GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the first year, with potential retaliatory measures from the EU increasing the impact to 0.5 percentage points [10][12] - The tariffs are expected to directly affect Eurozone manufacturing exports and temporarily raise inflation by about 0.5 percentage points, while long-term growth may be suppressed [12] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 is only 0.9%, with core inflation remaining low at 0.9%, limiting the ability to respond to imported inflation through interest rate hikes [12] Group 4: Interconnections and Global Impact - The conflict between Trump's rate cut demands and the Fed's data-dependent strategy increases policy uncertainty, affecting global confidence in dollar assets [15] - U.S. tariff policies are dragging down Eurozone growth through trade channels, creating a "lose-lose" situation as retaliatory measures raise import costs [15] - Emerging markets are compelled to raise interest rates to combat imported inflation, while the Eurozone faces a "low growth-low inflation" trap, limiting monetary policy options [15]

当地时间8月20日，美股科技股全线重挫，纳指一度大跌近2%，跌破21000点，为8月7日以来首次；芯片股集体跳水，费城半导体指数一度暴跌超3%，英 伟达一度大跌近4%；其他大型科技股亦全线下挫。另外，华尔街"恐慌指数"VIX一度飙升超10%。 截至发稿，道琼斯指数跌0.11%，标普500指数跌0.55%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.08%。 据券商中国，当前，华尔街的期权交易员对美股科技股暴跌的担忧日益加剧，正在大举抢购看跌期权对冲风险。 大型科技股普跌，截至发稿，苹果跌1.54%，特斯拉跌2.68%，亚马逊跌1.97%，脸书跌1.24%，谷歌跌1.16%，英伟达跌1.54%，微软跌0.77%。 | IF | 现价 | 涨跌幅▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 微软(MICROSOFT) US MSFT | 505.840 | -0.77% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-A | | | | US GOOGL | 199.230 | -1.16% | | 脸书(META PLATFC | 742.163 | -1.24% | | US META | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 172. ...

Group 1 - The inflation rate in the UK rose to 3.8% in July, up from 3.6% in June, making the UK the highest among the G7 countries [3][4] - The service sector inflation rate increased from 4.7% to 5.0%, exceeding economists' expectations [3] - The main drivers of inflation include rising transportation costs, particularly airfares, and a 4.9% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices [7] Group 2 - The UK economy showed weak growth of only 0.3% in the second quarter, despite a slight strengthening of the pound [4] - The Bank of England has indicated a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns [6][7] - Analysts expect inflation to remain high, potentially reaching 4% in September before declining [8]