Group 1 - London copper prices increased due to concerns over recent supply tightness, with three-month copper rising by $62 to $9,440 per ton [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $31.50 to $2,465.50 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw increases of $16 and $10 respectively [2] - Nickel and tin prices, however, decreased, with nickel falling by $65 to $15,550 per ton and tin down by $102 to $31,919 per ton [2] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventories increased by 40% this month amid investigations into potential new copper import tariffs by Washington, with a significant premium of $1,443 per ton over LME copper [3] - The global copper market is expected to see a surplus increase from 138,000 tons last year to 289,000 tons this year, with continued oversupply projected for next year [3] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $162 billion in March, indicating a significant drag on first-quarter GDP growth, estimated to be as much as 1.9 percentage points [3]

智通财经APP获悉，美国劳工部统计局周二公布的数据显示，3月份美国职位空缺数量降至719万个，为 去年9月以来的最低水平，远低于2月份修正后的748万个，亦低于外媒调查中所有经济学家的预期。这 一数字接近2020年新冠疫情爆发初期的水平，反映出在经济不确定性加剧背景下，企业招聘意愿明显降 温。 数据显示，劳动力市场需求正在减弱，企业普遍暂停支出计划，等待对特朗普总统政策方向获得更明确 的认知。目前，特朗普政府持续推进大规模关税政策，许多经济学家警告称，这可能抑制经济增长并提 高美国陷入衰退的风险。 尽管整体职位空缺下降，但报告中仍有部分积极信号。例如，3月份裁员人数降至去年6月以来最低水 平，招聘总数保持稳定。此外，"辞职率"指标小幅上升，创下自去年7月以来新高。辞职率反映了员工 对劳动力市场的信心，通常被视为劳动力市场健康的重要信号。 特朗普政府在缩减联邦政府规模方面的举措已开始对劳动力市场产生明显影响。据人力资源咨询公司 Challenger, Gray & Christmas数据显示，3月份美国裁员公告数量同比激增三倍，主要由"政府效率部"相 关政策所推动。4月份裁员计划的汇总数据预计将于本周四公布。 ...

| United States | South | Singapore | Malaysia | | | Mexico | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本对美出口占比最高 | Korea 1 0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | | | | Germany | | | Canada | | | | | 2.6% | | | | | | | Hong ... | India | 1.7% | 1796 | 17% | 15% | | | | 2.6% | France | | | | | China | 5.4% | Vietnam | | | | | | | Thailand | 2.6% | | | | | | 9% | | Australia | 1 4 3 3 13 9 | | | | | | 4.0% | 2.4% | 088% | | | | | | Countriae Continante | | | | | | ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 本周五20:30，美国劳工部劳动统计局将公布4月非 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index rising by 4.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite, driven by tech stocks, climbing 6.6% [1] - Major indices have recovered losses incurred since the April 2 tariff announcement, with a busy week ahead for economic data and corporate earnings reports [1] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Key economic indicators to watch include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and first-quarter inflation data, with particular focus on GDP growth [1][10] - 180 S&P 500 companies are set to release quarterly earnings, with major attention on giants like Apple, Amazon, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Meta, Microsoft, and Chevron [1] Policy Signals and Market Sentiment - Trump's recent comments alleviated concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and hinted at a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which positively impacted market sentiment [4] - The S&P 500 achieved its first four-day consecutive gain since January, although strategists caution that tariff concerns remain [4] Inflation Indicators - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to show a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for March, down from 2.8%, with a month-over-month growth expected at 0.1% [7] Labor Market Resilience - Despite signs of economic slowdown, the labor market remains robust, with expectations of 133,000 new non-farm jobs in April and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [10] - The labor market's stability is noted, although employers may be adopting a wait-and-see approach due to recent trade policy changes [10] Technology Sector Performance - Tech stocks have led the recent market rally, with Tesla's stock rising approximately 18% amid positive sentiment regarding CEO Elon Musk's reduced government role and new autonomous driving regulations [14] - The "Big Seven" tech companies, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta, saw stock increases of about 9%, while Google's positive earnings report boosted its stock by 7% [14] - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech firms will be critical in assessing the impact of tariff changes and competition in the AI sector on their growth prospects [14]

美联储理事库格勒：劳动力市场稳健，整体保持平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The labor market has effectively reached full employment according to the Federal Reserve's Bostic [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a strong labor market, suggesting potential stability in economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly emphasizes that hard data should not be misinterpreted regarding robust growth and the labor market [1] Group 1 - Daly suggests that the current economic indicators reflect a stable growth trajectory, countering any misconceptions about economic weakness [1] - The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment rates supporting the overall economic outlook [1] - Daly's comments indicate confidence in the resilience of the economy despite potential external challenges [1]

Employment Data - In March, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 228,000, exceeding the expected 135,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March, up from 4.1% in the previous month[1] - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, while the government sector contributed 19,000 jobs[3] Job Market Trends - By March 2025, the average monthly recruitment plan is expected to decrease to 10,000, down from 24,000 in February and 127,000 in 2021[2] - The number of job vacancies in the non-government sector fell to 6.667 million, down from over 10 million in 2022[2] - All ethnic groups saw an increase in employment rates in March[3][47] Wage Growth and Economic Indicators - The average weekly wage growth for non-farm employment was revised down to 3.2% in March, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from February[4] - The overall wage growth remains above the inflation rate, indicating real income growth despite a slowdown in wage increase momentum[4] - The service production index rose by 4.5% in March, with education and health sectors growing by 1.9%[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, indicates that there is no immediate need to lower interest rates despite uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies. The current economic conditions remain stable, and the Fed will adopt a patient approach while awaiting clearer signals regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Powell emphasizes that the U.S. economy is currently in good shape, with a balanced and robust job market. The Fed's focus is on distinguishing genuine signals from market noise amid economic changes [1][4]. - The February non-farm payroll report showed a job growth of 151,000, slightly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest since November of the previous year [3]. Trade Policy Impact - The uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's trade policies is acknowledged as a significant factor affecting economic conditions. The Fed is assessing the impact of these trade policy changes, which have heightened economic uncertainty [1][4]. - Powell notes that the rise in tariffs is pushing up prices for certain goods, which could affect inflation expectations. However, long-term inflation expectations remain stable and aligned with the Fed's targets [5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer and business inflation expectations, as these can become self-fulfilling. If long-term inflation expectations rise, the Fed may reconsider its stance on interest rate cuts [5]. - Powell suggests that if the tariff impacts are deemed temporary, the Fed may choose to ignore them in its monetary policy decisions [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices initially dropped but later rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising over 0.9%. Treasury yields also experienced fluctuations, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's communication [7].