东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，金价上涨的核心驱动因素——美国政府债务问题，以 及去美元化交易的中长期逻辑依然存在，这决定了黄金将继续保持上涨格局。同时，美联储独立性问题 从长期来看仍有进一步发酵的可能，一旦与其他因素形成共振，将推动金价继续上扬。 今天上午，有色金属板块大涨，贵金属板块涨势最强，四川黄金、山东黄金涨停。 工业金属板块中，云南铜业、江西铜业等个股涨停。能源金属板块中，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等个股大 涨。稀土永磁板块中，包钢股份、北方稀土等个股大涨。 国庆假期期间，现货黄金价格持续上行，屡创历史新高。10月8日，现货黄金价格首次突破4000美元/盎 司关口，引发市场热议。 国家外汇管理局10月7日发布的数据显示，9月末我国黄金储备为7406万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为我 国央行连续第11个月增持黄金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has concluded, with President Trump set to choose from four leading candidates amid concerns over the Fed's independence and potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin completed the final round of interviews for the Federal Reserve Chair candidates, which included 11 individuals [1]. - The candidates were rigorously questioned for two hours on their views regarding interest rate policies and the exit strategy from quantitative easing [1]. - The final candidates include Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and external candidate Rick Rieder, who performed notably well in interviews [1][2]. Group 2: Focus on Federal Reserve Reforms - Mnuchin emphasized the need for candidates to address structural reforms within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding its balance sheet and the perceived overreach of its powers [2]. - Candidates were asked about their opinions on Mnuchin's recent article advocating for comprehensive reforms and criticizing quantitative easing as an experimental monetary policy [1][2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - The ongoing turmoil at the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about its independence, especially following Trump's appointment of allies and attempts to dismiss certain board members [3][4]. - Market volatility has increased due to the administration's repeated attacks on the Fed's traditional independence in setting interest rates, leading to speculation that the next chair may pursue more aggressive rate cuts [3].

英国央行警告称，全球市场“突然调整”的风险越来越大。如果投资者对AI前景或美联储独立性的信心下降，全球金融市场可能会暴跌。从某些指标来看，美国股市的股价估值与科网泡沫高峰期的估值相似。英国央行金融政策委员会也指出，美联储信誉的削弱将对美国政府债券造成影响。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England warns that a pessimistic sentiment regarding the prospects of artificial intelligence or the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to a significant downturn in global financial markets [1] - The Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England indicates that the risk of a major market correction has increased, marking the strongest warning to date regarding potential market crashes triggered by AI [1] - The committee highlights that the spillover effects of such shocks on the UK financial system could be "quite severe" [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England expresses concern that a sudden change in perception regarding the credibility of the Federal Reserve could lead to significant price adjustments in dollar assets, including U.S. sovereign debt, resulting in higher volatility and risk premiums globally [2] - The cost of borrowing for the UK government is closely tied to U.S. Treasury yields, and a decline in U.S. bond prices is likely to increase the debt servicing costs of newly issued UK public debt [2] - The recent interest rate hikes reflect concerns over the high levels of borrowing in developed economies, exacerbated by political uncertainties in France and Japan [2] Group 3 - The Bank of England notes that 30% of the valuation in the S&P 500 is contributed by the top five companies, the highest concentration in 50 years [3] - Current price valuations based on past earnings are at their highest level since the internet bubble 25 years ago, although future profit expectations make these valuations appear less alarming [3] - The concentration of funds within market indices is rising, and if expectations regarding the impact of AI become less optimistic, the market could face significant risks [3] Group 4 - The Bank of England assesses that domestic financial stability risks have not changed significantly, as households and businesses continue to cope with rising inflation, which is projected to reach 4% in September [4] - Risk managers surveyed by the Bank of England express greater confidence in the stability of the UK financial system compared to six months ago, identifying cyberattacks and geopolitical factors as the main threats [4] - The Bank of England maintains its regulatory measures for banks, keeping the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) at 2% and the minimum leverage ratio at 3.25% after an annual review [4]

Gold futures (GC=F) soared to new all-time highs above $4,000 on Tuesday as investors piled into the precious metal amid a weakening dollar and growing expectations for more Federal Reserve rate cuts. Futures for the yellow metal are up more than 50% year-to-date, marking their highest return in a calendar year since 1979. Meanwhile, a new report from the World Gold Council released Tuesday showed that global gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded their largest quarterly inflows on record during the ...

Core Insights - Gold futures reached $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by investors seeking safe havens amid global volatility [1] - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year, influenced by President Donald Trump's impact on the global trade system and the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - Strong demand from central banks and retail investors has contributed to the rally in gold prices [1]

自从9月18日美联储宣布降息25个基点后，特朗普对鲍威尔的公开指责奇迹般地安静了。 但表面的风平浪静之下，真正的风暴正在转向更直接的通道。 当前美国政府处于"停摆"状态，特朗普政府却借机推进第二轮大规模联邦雇员裁减计划。 这意味着美联储失去了判断经济状况的核心风向标。 这种"数据荒"来得正是时候。 上周发布的ADP就业数据也大幅低于市场预期。 美联储降息通常依赖两大关键数据：就业市场和通胀水平。 分析人士警告，数据荒持续时间越长，经济增长可能越受拖累，美联储面临的降息压力就越大。 通胀方面同样棘手。 美国CPI已从4月低点2.3%攀升至8月的2.9%，核心PCE提升至2.88%，均高于美联储2%的目标。 关税政策推高的进口成本正逐步传导至 消费端，但与此同时，房地产市场低迷又压制了整体通胀表现。 美联储陷入了典型的双向风险困境，通胀上行风险与就业下行风险并存。 特朗普对美联储的改造远不止于外部环境。 他通过人事任命悄然改变了美联储内部的权力平衡。 特朗普没有再施压美联储？ 错！ 10月降息概率已飙升至96.2%，这背后不是美联储的独立决策，而是一系列精妙的"幕后操作"，政府停摆、大规模裁员、关键经济数据"被消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve raises concerns about the independence of the central bank, as he advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts aligned with Trump's economic policies [1][3][9]. Group 1: Appointment and Background - Stephen Milan, previously the chairman of Trump's economic advisory council, began his role at the Federal Reserve while still on unpaid leave from the White House, indicating a potential conflict of interest [3][5]. - His confirmation was contentious, passing the Senate by a narrow margin of 48 to 47 votes, highlighting the significant controversy surrounding his appointment [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Views - Milan is known for his alignment with Trump's economic strategies, including advocating for tariffs and a weaker dollar to boost exports, which he believes necessitates lower interest rates [7][11]. - He publicly challenged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the need for more substantial rate cuts, suggesting rates should drop below 3% by year-end [7][11]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Milan's dual role poses a threat to the long-standing principle of Federal Reserve independence, as he suggests that the central bank should be more responsive to presidential influence [9][11]. - The potential shift in policy could lead to increased inflation risks, as traditional economic theories warn against aggressive rate cuts in the face of rising tariffs [11][13]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing debate about the Federal Reserve's independence could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy, potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates and volatility in financial markets [13][15]. - The situation reflects a broader struggle over economic governance, questioning whether decisions should be made by data-driven professionals or politically motivated leaders [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously justifying President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complex stance within the Trump administration regarding the Fed's independence and its implications for future monetary policy direction [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan bias in the Fed's composition [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that the Federal Reserve began significantly raising interest rates once it recognized that its monetary policy was off track, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The Fed announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, prior to Biden's reappointment of Powell, suggesting that the decision to tighten policy was not solely dependent on the timing of Powell's nomination [4]. Group 3: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third claim is that the Fed unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, a viewpoint that Hassett did not express at the time and later defended as a wise decision based on available data [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously justifying President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complexities within the Trump administration regarding this sensitive topic [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan bias in the appointments [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that once the Federal Reserve recognized its monetary policy was off track, it began to raise interest rates significantly, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The first significant rate hike of 75 basis points occurred in June 2022, with subsequent hikes also supported by the newly appointed governors [3]. Group 3: Timing of Policy Tightening - Hassett's second claim is that the Federal Reserve only began tightening monetary policy after Biden nominated Powell for a second term, which was announced on November 22, 2021 [4]. - Timiraos counters that the Fed had already announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, indicating that the decision to tighten was not solely dependent on Biden's nomination [4]. Group 4: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third accusation is that the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid Democratic candidate Kamala Harris [5]. - Timiraos highlights that Hassett did not express this view at the time and had previously defended the rate cut as a wise decision based on available data [5]. Group 5: Historical Perspective on Decisions - Hassett acknowledged in a later interview that while the rate cut might be viewed as a mistake in hindsight, it is essential to consider the context in which policymakers made their decisions [6].