【华泰证券：降息落地后金价短期或承压，长期配置价值不变】华泰证券表示，短期来看，由于美联储 降息利好已被充分定价，黄金可能面临"卖事实"的回调压力。本次降息属于预防式降息，参考2024年9 月降息后的情况，金价可能在降息之后一定时间形成"阶段性"顶部。 华泰证券认为，中长期黄金配置 价值不变。一方面，联储在上调、通胀粘性的背景下仍延续降息路径，叠加市场对2026年鲍威尔任期结 束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期美滞胀的隐忧仍在。另一方面，在全球格局重塑的年代，去美元化趋 势、地缘政治风险以及投资组合多元化的需求，都在推动全球央行和投资者持续增配黄金。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing power struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve is impacting the economy through exchange rates, prices, and investment returns, challenging the independence of the Fed, which is a cornerstone of the modern financial system [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The detachment of the dollar from gold in 1971 led to the "stagflation" of the 1970s, with inflation peaking at 12.3%, resulting in soaring prices and unemployment [3]. - The painful experience of the 1970s highlighted the necessity of entrusting monetary policy to independent technocrats rather than short-sighted politicians [3]. Group 2: Current Dynamics - Trump's real estate background drives his instinctive pursuit of low interest rates and easy credit, conflicting with the Fed's mission to prevent a repeat of the 1970s economic nightmare [3]. - The Fed's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, exemplified by a mere 25 basis point reduction, contrasts sharply with Trump's demand for aggressive rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Implications for the Economy - If Trump succeeds, a short-term asset bubble may lead to severe inflation, diluting the purchasing power of deposits and reshuffling societal wealth [4]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its stance, the economy may endure short-term pain but lay the groundwork for long-term health [4]. Group 4: Global Impact - Fluctuations in the dollar, as a global reserve currency, can trigger capital flow effects, with Fed rate cuts potentially leading to capital inflows into emerging markets, while rate hikes could cause capital withdrawals and financial crises in other countries [6]. - Chinese investors are advised to adapt to volatility, seek quality assets that can withstand inflation, and avoid poor liabilities like consumer loans [6]. - In the current complex global environment, the stable development of the Chinese market is seen as a primary choice for attracting capital, particularly focusing on quality assets in the technology sector [6].

Group 1 - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel and a collaboration agreement to jointly develop artificial intelligence infrastructure and personal computing products [1][2] - Intel's stock surged by 22.8%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987, following Nvidia's investment announcement [2] - The collaboration includes Intel customizing x86 CPUs for Nvidia in the data center sector and producing SoCs integrated with Nvidia's RTX GPUs for personal computing [2] Group 2 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 3.6%, with the S&P 500 Technology sector increasing by 1.36% and the Nasdaq Technology sector up by 0.94% [3] - Seven out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 closed higher, with consumer staples and discretionary sectors experiencing the largest declines [4] - The Russell 2000 Index reached a closing high of 2466 points, the first since November of the previous year, benefiting from a low interest rate environment [4] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, below market expectations of 240,000, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the weak job market and hinted at potential future rate cuts [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, while the 2-year yield increased by 2.5 basis points to 3.572%, with a yield spread of 53.4 basis points [4]

美国经济迷雾重重：就业数据疑云与降息抉择悬念 刚刚过去的这一年，美国劳工部的一份意外"账单"震动了整个华尔街：高达91.1万的就业人数被悄然上调，平均每月虚增近7.6万。这一数字的 披露，无疑为过去一年来我们对美国经济的认知蒙上了一层"注水"的阴影，真相远比账面数据来得复杂。 此刻，全球投资者的目光如探照灯般聚焦在华盛顿那座庄严肃穆的灰色建筑——美联储。今夜，这里即将上演2025年度最扣人心弦的金融大 戏：一次25个基点还是50个基点的降息，将不仅左右华尔街的瞬息万变，更深刻地牵动着每一个普通人的钱袋子。 最新的8月非农就业数据，仅录得2.2万人，远逊于市场普遍预期的7.5万人。更令人担忧的是，6月份的数据甚至出现了负增长，而失业率更是 攀升至4.3%，创下近四年来的新高。这一系列疲软的数字，共同勾勒出一幅美国经济正在步入"慢车道"的图景。 与此同时，美国国债利息支出已如滚雪球般突破万亿美元大关，占到了联邦总支出的惊人17%。这意味着，政府每收取100美元的税款，就有 17美元被"吞噬"于利息偿还，可用于基础设施建设、民生福利的资金愈发捉襟见肘。 特朗普的考量则更为现实和迫切。临近明年的中期选举，经济表现的疲 ...

现在看来，美联储的这次降息是为了让经济慢慢恢复元气。问题是，降息虽然能缓解短期压力，但长期来看是否有用呢？也许下一步他们 会加大力度，但如果经济本身的问题没有根本解决，恐怕降息也只能起到拖延作用。 你有没有发现，最近美国经济不太对劲？美联储就像是在玩"过山车一会儿加息，一会儿又降息。这不，9月18日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔 宣布了降息25个基点，这是今年的第二次降息。我们先不急着庆祝，降息到底是为了什么？ 鲍威尔这次可没拐弯抹角。他直言，美国的通胀依然很高，8月份的通胀率居然还是2.7%。但与此失业率却悄悄飙升到4.3%，创下近四年 来的最高点。就连工作机会都变得稀缺了。换句话说，经济不好，百姓的日子也不好过。 说实话，美联储的这种决策就像被逼上梁山。通胀没法完全压住，但如果经济再不好，恐怕连撑下去的底气都没有了。鲍威尔自己都说， 降息是"管理风险试图缓解这种经济疲软的困局。但换句话说，就是给经济打个"预防针不让它彻底崩溃。 我有个朋友在佛罗里达开卡车，他跟我吐槽过：现在油价越来越贵，车子也越来越难保养。上个月他才跑了两趟长途，收入直接掉了不止 一截。他很无奈，说连原本的生活也跟不上了。你可以想象，这种"卡住脖 ...

特朗普团队非常兴奋的表示，美联储将在18日凌晨两点降息25个基点，恐怕远在英国访问的特朗普也高兴得手舞足蹈。 不过呢，之前特朗普与鲍威尔大吵 了几次，甚至要换掉他，但是，特朗普没有如愿以偿，毕竟，特朗普说了不算。 特朗普曾经说过，美国要降300个基点才算得上合理，不过，此次如果降息 25个基点，与特朗普预期降了十倍，但我认为，特朗普应该很开心了，因为美联储能降息，已经是给特朗普面子了。 美联储不可能一次性降300个基点，温 水煮青蛙的方式是美国资本家最擅长玩的，如今实现了年内首降，也是特朗普上任来第一次降息，是个好的开端，特朗普略胜一筹，不过，特朗普没有把鲍 威尔赶下台，心头大患。 如果美联储再不降息，美国的银行入不敷出，将一个接一个的倒闭。 ...

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. saw a significant decline last week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years, which contrasts with the previous week's unusual spike and aligns with lower layoff levels in the economy [1] - The total number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits remains above the critical threshold of 1.9 million, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market despite the recent decline in initial claims [1] Group 1 - Initial jobless claims decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 for the week ending September 13, which is consistent with levels seen earlier this year and close to pre-pandemic trends [1] - The previous week's surge in initial claims was attributed to volatility around Labor Day and was particularly pronounced in Texas, where officials linked it to fraudulent attempts [1] - The overall decline in initial claims suggests that companies are still retaining employees despite an uncertain economic environment, although signs of labor market weakness persist [1] Group 2 - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims remained relatively stable at 240,000, indicating minimal change in the underlying trend [2] - The unadjusted initial jobless claims also fell by over 10,000 last week, with Texas accounting for about half of this decline, alongside significant decreases in Connecticut and Michigan [2] - The report challenges theories regarding a sudden surge in layoffs and diminishes calls for more aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2]

01月30日03:00 美联储第一次暂停降息 1. 特朗普评：鲍威尔和美联储没能阻止他们制造的通胀问题，而 我将做到这一点。 03月20日02:00 美联储第二次暂停降息 1. 特朗普评：随着美国关税（逐步！）开始 影响经济，美联储下调利率会好得多。要做正确的事。 05月08日02:00 美联储第三次暂停降息 1. 特朗 普一评："太迟（先生）"鲍威尔是个傻瓜，他毫无头绪。除此之外，我非常喜欢他！美国几乎没有通 胀。 2. 特朗普二评：与鲍威尔的对话就像"对牛弹琴"，他总是"太迟"，他可能并不喜欢我！ 06月19日 02:00 美联储第四次暂停降息 1. 特朗普一评："太迟先生"鲍威尔是最差劲的，他真是个蠢货，正让美国 损失数十亿美元！他要么降息要么辞职。 2. 特朗普二评："太迟先生"鲍威尔是美国的耻辱！他让美国 损失了数千亿美元！鲍威尔应该降息250个基点！ 07月31日02:00 美联储第五次暂停降息 1. 特朗普一 评：（决议前十分钟）鲍威尔今天可能不会降息，他总是行动太晚，即使他今天"做出行动"，也太慢 了。 2. 特朗普二评：鲍威尔又不降息，他行动太迟了，而且实际上，他太愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化 了 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England decided to maintain the interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations, amid growing concerns over inflation rebound [1] - The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7 to 2 to keep rates unchanged, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Bank of England announced a slowdown in quantitative tightening to £700 billion, which also met market expectations [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England's stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve, which recently cut rates and is expected to continue doing so [1] - Following the interest rate announcement, traders maintained their bets on a further 6 basis point cut this year [1] - The Bank of England warned that future rate cuts will be "gradual and cautious," depending on the persistence of potential inflationary pressures [1] Group 3 - Recent official data showed that the August inflation rate was nearly double the Bank of England's 2% target, with signs of stabilization in the labor market [2] - There is a deep division within the Bank of England regarding how to respond to the new wave of inflation driven by energy and food costs [2] - Rising household inflation expectations are concerning some officials, as they fear it may lead to increased wage demands and further price hikes, creating a feedback loop [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2][10]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, international gold prices dropped over 0.8%, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3694.6 per ounce, down 0.82% [3]. - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) to 46018.32, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22261.33 [6]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 2.8%, with notable gains in Chinese tech stocks such as Baidu, which rose over 11% [7]. Economic Insights - The Fed's decision reflects a desire to manage economic risks, with Chairman Powell indicating that the current economic landscape is markedly different due to a cooling labor market [10]. - The Fed's updated dot plot suggests two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year and an additional cut next year [10]. - Analysts view the Fed's stance as dovish, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid signs of labor market weakness and rising inflation expectations [11].