Group 1: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a historic high, driven by Nvidia's stock surge [1][2] - Nvidia's stock price increased by 4% after the U.S. government allowed the export of H20 AI accelerators to China, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [6][8] - The impact of tariffs is evident, with clothing prices up by 0.4%, furniture prices rising by 1%, and household appliances increasing by 1.9% [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for an immediate rate cut, while others express concerns over inflation [8][10] - The probability of a rate cut in July is only 2.6%, while the likelihood for September has risen to 51.7% [12]

金十数据7月24日讯，高盛集团指出，南非温和的通胀水平为央行在今年剩余三次政策会议上连续降息 创造了条件。周三数据显示，6月年化通胀率从5月的2.8%微升至3%，低于经济学家预测的3.1%。高盛 预计，若通胀目标维持不变，到年底前南非央行可能累计降息75个基点至6.5%。 高盛：南非2025年或迎三次降息空间 ...

特朗普发帖称，由于鲍威尔拒绝降低利率，住房市场出现了滞后。家庭因为利率太高而受到伤害，甚至我们国 家本身也因此不得不支付比应有水平更高的利率。我们的利率本应比现在低三个百分点，这样一来，每年就能 为整个国家节省1万亿美元。鲍威尔这个固执的家伙就是不明白，从来没有，也永远不会明白。理事会应该采 取行动，但他们没有勇气这么做！ 行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（7月23日）冲回落大幅收跌，开盘价3426.49美元/盎司，最高价3438.88美元/盎司，最低价 3398.11美元/盎司，收盘价3398.16美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国6月成屋销售总数年化录得393万户，低于市场预期400万户，前值为403万户。 美国房产经纪协会NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示，"抵押贷款利率高企导致房屋销售仍停留在周期性低 点。如果平均抵押贷款利率下降到6%，我们的情景分析表明，将有额外的16万租房者成为首次购房者，现有 房主的销售活动也会增加。" 美国财长贝森特：今年可能会出现1到2次降息。几乎每周都与美联储主席鲍威尔共进早餐。在美联储主席提名 问题上，我们不急于求成。特朗普已经说了，他不会解雇鲍威尔。 贸易局势： 据了解 ...

智通财经7月24日电，新西兰央行首席经济学家康韦表示，如果通胀持续温和，预计将有进一步降息空 间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated that there is room for further interest rate cuts if inflation continues to ease [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is closely monitoring inflation trends and is prepared to adjust monetary policy accordingly [1] - A continued decline in inflation could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The central bank's focus remains on achieving its inflation targets while supporting economic growth [1]

特朗普频繁喊话降息，反常举动能否推升黄金？日内交易留意这几处关键位信号！V助理团实时分析市 场走势，点击获取当天智囊团私人服务，领取黄金分析>> 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened due to Trump's ongoing criticism of Chairman Powell, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [1][4] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [1][2] - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are above the Federal Reserve's target, with June's CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2 - The absolute value and proportion of U.S. federal government interest expenditures are at historically high levels, with interest spending reaching $278.58 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for 15.6% of regular expenditures [3] - The implementation of tariff policies has created downward pressure on the U.S. economy, with GDP growth slowing to 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the lowest since Q1 2023 [3] - The trade deficit remains significant and unstable, with a trade gap of $60.257 billion in April 2025, which widened again to $71.517 billion in May [3] Group 3 - If Powell were to be removed, it could exacerbate the dollar's credit crisis, as market fears of presidential interference in monetary policy could lead to panic [4] - There are internal divisions among Senate Republicans regarding Powell's potential removal, suggesting that the likelihood of such an action is low and could incur high costs [4] - The divergence between the 5-year forward inflation swap rates and the 2-year overnight index swap rates reflects market fears of a loss of confidence in the dollar rather than just concerns over the Fed's independence [4]

智通财经7月24日电，美国财长贝森特表示，今年可能会出现1到2次降息；几乎每个星期都会与美联储 主席鲍威尔共进早餐。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Turkey is preparing to cut interest rates for the first time since the political crisis began in March [1] Group 1 - The anticipated interest rate cut marks a significant shift in Turkey's monetary policy [1] - This decision may impact the overall economic stability and investor confidence in Turkey [1]

Market Outlook - Bank of America Merrill Lynch CIO's capital market outlook suggests fiscal stimulus offsetting tariff impacts [1] - The report views AI from a historical perspective, comparing it to the advent of calculators [1] - Fixed income opportunities are present before potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1]