中美经贸高层会谈10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。12日，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 来自美国多个行业的人士对此表示欢迎。他们认为，这表明世界上最大的两个经济体正通过平等对话协 商解决分歧、寻求互利共赢，符合两国最佳利益。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva resulted in a constructive agreement, with both sides committing to establish a consultation mechanism and significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels [1][2][3]. Tariff Adjustments - The US will modify tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 24% tariff that will be suspended for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff. Additionally, tariffs imposed under two other executive orders will be canceled. In response, China will similarly suspend a 24% tariff on US goods for 90 days and cancel other tariffs [2]. Pragmatic Approach - The report indicates that both countries are returning to a pragmatic approach in trade negotiations, with the US showing signs of easing trade protection policies due to internal economic pressures, including a significant debt maturity in June 2025 [3][4]. Future Negotiation Progress - Both parties will establish a mechanism for ongoing negotiations regarding economic and trade relations, with representatives from both sides set to engage in further discussions. Historical context suggests that multiple rounds of negotiations may be necessary to resolve outstanding issues [4]. Export Market Diversification - Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that China's exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 7.2% year-on-year in Q1, while exports to the US decreased by approximately 21% in April. This reflects a declining dependency on the US market and a shift towards a more diversified export strategy [5].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods in Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025. 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for the initial 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. The additional tariffs under Executive Orders 14259 of April 8, 2025, and 14266 of April 9, 2025, will be cancelled [2]. - From January to April this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history, reaching 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8% [2]. - The recent Sino - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs [2]. - One month ago, the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates stable in the first half of this year was only one - fifth in the futures market. Now, the probability that there will be no interest rate cut before the end of June is about 90% [3]. 2. Key Commodities to Watch - Key commodities to watch include crude oil, fuel oil, glass, coking coal, and iron ore [4]. 3. Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.64% increase, precious metals 30.70%, oilseeds and fats 11.60%, soft commodities 2.71%, non - ferrous metals 19.44%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 13.06%, energy 2.57%, chemicals 12.81%, grains 1.76%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.71% [7]. 4. Asset Performance - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.82%, a monthly increase of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.52%. Other indices such as the Nikkei 225, UK FTSE 100, and various domestic and international indices also had their respective performance data [8][9][10]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative performance in terms of daily, monthly, and year - to - date changes [9]. - **Commodities**: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and other commodities had different performance in daily, monthly, and year - to - date terms [9]. - **Other**: The US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had their respective performance data [9]. 5. Stock Market Risk Preference - Data on the risk premium of the Wande All - A (excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemicals), Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 were presented [16][17].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The Sino-US friendly negotiation injects short - term benefits, the US dollar rebounds, and the follow - up situation needs further attention. The fundamentals continue the pattern of tight supply, and the downstream demand is expected to slow down. However, the hawkish stance of the US suppresses the upside space. It is expected that the copper price will be mainly volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high, fluctuated lower, and closed up. The Sino - US friendly negotiation raised the risk preference and the US dollar rebounded, suppressing the copper price. As of May 9, the smelter processing fees continued to expand negative values, and the supply shortage of copper mines intensified. The US copper inventory increased significantly, and the domestic exchange's explicit inventory continued to decline but at a slower rate. There are maintenance plans in May and concentrated plans from July to September. In April, the cable enterprise's start - up rate reached 86.3%, and the orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated lower, and closed up, at 78090 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 4809 to 120750 hands, and the short positions decreased by 2404 to 112949 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 25 yuan/ton, and in South China was 45 yuan/ton. On May 12, 2025, the LME official price was 9546 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 44 dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 2.92 tons, an increase of 9073 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 8.58 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 18.97 tons, a slight decrease of 1100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 16.35 short tons, an increase of 3208 short tons from the previous period [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade agreement has exceeded expectations, leading to a significant reduction in tariffs and a positive impact on global markets, with both US and Chinese currencies strengthening and a notable decline in risk aversion indicators [2][5]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China have agreed to significantly lower tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs by 91% and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [5][6]. - The effective tariff rate (ETR) for the US has decreased from 22.8% to 13.1%, marking the lowest level since 1941 [5][6]. - The reduction in tariffs is expected to restore normal trade activities between the two countries, with a target tariff rate of 30% deemed feasible for both exporters and consumers [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, US stock markets experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 2.81% and the S&P 500 increasing by 3.26% [2][3]. - European markets also saw positive movements, with the STOXX 600 index rising by 1.2% and notable gains in logistics and shipping companies [3]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, fell by 15.98% to 18.40, indicating reduced market fear [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US Treasury reported a budget surplus of $258.4 billion for April, with customs duties reaching a record high of $16.3 billion, a 130% increase year-on-year [7]. - The total customs revenue for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $63.3 billion, reflecting an 18% increase compared to the previous year [7].

| 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后,中美关税调整 圆 美国对中国关税变化 | | 中国对美国关税变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保留 | 10%基准关税 | 10%基准关税 | 儒醫 | | 初始90天内暂停实施 | 24% "对等关税" | 24%反制关税 | 初始90天内暂停实施 | | 取消 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后,中美关税调整 | 91%加征关税 | 91%反制关税 | 取消 Canlina 1 | 对于这样的会谈结果，商务部发言人指出，这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益 和世界共同利益。 中美谈判取得重要成果，背后的三个看点不容忽视。 5月12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。根据声明内容，本次中美经贸高层会谈取 得实质性进展，双方大幅降低双边关税水平。 面对美方多轮加征关税的施压，中方始终保持战略定力，秉持理性态度，采取反制措施坚决维护自身利 益。 本次中美经贸会谈处处体现出对等原则。如，会谈前地点选择在第三国，规避主场外交。 在谈判结果上，对等原则也体现得尤为明显。一是在关税减让幅度上，双方均取消91%的关税。二是在 有争 ...

在全球化深度交融的背景下，中美作为全球经济的关键力量，其经贸关系备受关注。 据新华社报道，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年1月17 日中美元首通话重要共识进行了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识。当 地时间5月12日上午9时，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"《联合声明》"）。 商务部新闻发言人表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平。这一举措符 合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。 长久以来，中美经贸关系，给两国乃至世界经济都带来了诸多不确定性。而此次会谈，双方以平等对 话、协商的姿态，勇敢地迈出了解决分歧的关键步伐。 "这种积极的态度和行动，犹如春风化雨，为进一步消除双方之间的分歧、深化彼此合作，奠定了坚如 磐石的基础。它向世界宣告，即使面对复杂棘手的经贸矛盾，中美两国依然有意愿、有能力通过和平、 理性的方式来解决，为两国经贸关系的回暖注入了强大的动力。"杨宜勇指出。 据《联合声明》，美方取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to significant reductions in bilateral tariffs, which is expected to positively impact both economies and financial markets [2][6][10]. Group 1: Bilateral Tariffs - The U.S. has reduced additional tariffs on Chinese goods to 10% and plans to suspend 24% of tariffs for 90 days after the "liberation day," resulting in an average tariff reduction from 125% to 10% [2]. - China will cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, retaining only 10% and suspending 24% of its countermeasures for 90 days [2][7]. - The average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods is expected to decrease from 42.7% to 22.7% as cooperation on the fentanyl issue progresses [2][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The reduction in tariffs is projected to significantly lessen the negative impact on U.S.-China trade, with an estimated 16% decline in China's exports to the U.S. from May to December 2025 [8]. - The overall export growth for China to the U.S. is expected to decline by 11.7% for the year, with potential losses in export value ranging from $200 billion to $300 billion [8]. - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to reduce the adverse effects on domestic demand, manufacturing investment, and employment, although certain sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. may still face challenges [8][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The adjustment in tariff policies has improved market sentiment, leading to a recovery in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with expectations of a more stable market environment [10]. - The bond market has reacted to the positive news, with long-term interest rates rising, while short-term rates remain strong, indicating a potential opportunity for bond market positioning [11]. - U.S. stock markets are likely to experience a positive trend due to reduced trade tensions, although concerns over lingering tariff risks and high interest rates may limit upward movement [12]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The decline in tariffs is expected to bolster market risk appetite, leading to a potential appreciation of the RMB in the short term, while the USD may face mixed pressures depending on future tariff developments [13]. - Gold prices may experience short-term volatility due to increased risk appetite, but long-term uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy could support a rebound in gold prices [13].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...