Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential for the non-surgical medical aesthetic industry in China, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in the coming years, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing markets globally [9][10]. Core Insights - The Chinese non-surgical medical aesthetic market has surpassed 150 billion RMB in 2023 and is projected to exceed 250 billion RMB by 2025, driven by rising disposable income, changing beauty standards, and technological advancements [9][10]. - The market is characterized by a significant shift towards non-surgical procedures, with injectables like hyaluronic acid and botulinum toxin leading the growth, supported by technological innovations in materials and devices [9][10]. - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards compliance and regulation, with increased scrutiny from government bodies aimed at eliminating illegal practices and ensuring consumer safety [9][10]. Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Overview of the Non-Surgical Medical Aesthetic Industry - The non-surgical medical aesthetic industry is defined as a blend of medical and cosmetic services that utilize non-invasive or minimally invasive techniques for skin care and rejuvenation [12]. - The industry has evolved through three phases: exploration (pre-2015), rapid growth (2015-2021), and regulation and integration (2022-present) [19][21]. - The macro environment analysis indicates a tightening regulatory framework, rising disposable income, and shifting societal beauty standards as key drivers of industry growth [25][27]. Chapter 2: Market Size and Consumer Insights - The market size has grown from approximately 65 billion RMB in 2018 to over 150 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR exceeding 20% [30][31]. - Non-surgical procedures are increasingly favored due to their lower risk and quicker recovery times, leading to a growing market share for these services [34][35]. - Consumer demographics show a significant trend towards younger consumers, with those born in the 1990s and 2000s becoming the primary market [39]. Chapter 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (product and equipment manufacturers), midstream (medical aesthetic service providers), and downstream (marketing and referral platforms) [45]. - Upstream manufacturers face high technical barriers and are experiencing a shift towards domestic brands replacing international ones, driven by innovation and cost advantages [46][47]. - Midstream service providers are characterized by intense competition and high customer acquisition costs, prompting a trend towards brand consolidation and chain operations [49]. Chapter 4: Competitive Landscape and Key Players - The competitive landscape shows a high concentration of international brands in the high-end market, while domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share through innovation and localized strategies [46][47]. - The report highlights key players such as Ai Meike and Huaxi Biological, which are leveraging technological advancements to challenge established foreign brands [47]. Chapter 5: Regulatory Policies and Compliance - The regulatory environment is becoming increasingly stringent, with multiple government agencies implementing measures to ensure compliance and consumer safety [24][25]. - The report outlines the impact of these regulations on market dynamics, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to a more compliant operational framework [24][25]. Chapter 6: Industry Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Trends - The industry faces challenges such as price wars and a shortage of qualified professionals, but also opportunities in market penetration and technological innovation [8][10]. - Future trends indicate a shift towards personalized and diversified consumer demands, with an emphasis on natural results and preventive care [44].

一个，是中证Reits ，今天大涨超1%，明显和大盘背离，且1个点以上的涨幅，即使在连续上涨的 二季度，也仅出现过1天； 另一个，是银行股这边 ，继续大涨，港股这边迎来下半年首个交易日，港股银行大涨超2.2%，在 所有恒生行业指数中排第一，且建行领涨接近3%，而中行在四大行里垫底，"仅"上涨1.5%左右， 这背后的逻辑，我们昨天都已经聊过，并提前做出了预测分析，应该说，还是和实际情况相符 的。 今天市场有两块值得关注的亮点。 第一个亮点，依然是"季末调表，兑现利润"的后遗症 ，我们前两天聊的，节前异常下跌的两块资 产： 今天，财联社在 《真相调查， 银行股被险资配到上限了？ 》，也引用了咱们最近的观点，我在 本文的下半部分，会借助 泰康保险大佬 的公开观点，继续阐述一下，为什么说， 很多从业者忽 视了"前所未有的低利率"、"保险资产负债倒挂的紧迫性倒逼监管政策进入宽松周期"的长期性和 重要性。 另外，这回季末，还有一个事，大家关注的比较多，那就是 A500ETF 的冲量，华泰柏瑞最猛， 直接干破了200亿，弯道超车，成为A500的扛把子，堪称花小钱、办大事，季末营销的经典案 例，而嘉实等其他几家，季末也有发力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates significant growth in its annual performance driven by advancements in AI servers, consumer electronics, and accelerated domestic substitution in emerging fields [2][3]. Group 1: Annual Performance Growth - The primary sources of growth are identified as AI servers, consumer electronics, and AIoT, with a focus on enhancing distribution, application innovation, and supply chain services [2]. - The storage business is projected to generate revenue of 20.685 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 134.32%, primarily serving consumer terminals and AI servers [3]. Group 2: Processor Product Lines - The company has long-term partnerships with well-known chip brands for its authorized processor products, including GPU, CPU, and MCU, collaborating with companies such as AMD, NXP, and NVIDIA [4]. Group 3: Inventory Management - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company's inventory stands at 7.904 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.09%, attributed to seizing opportunities in the demand for new energy vehicles and AI computing [5]. Group 4: Future Product Line Strategy - The company has a rich resource of authorized upstream product lines, representing 11 of the top 20 domestic semiconductor brands and 9 of the top 20 global semiconductor brands. In 2024, it plans to introduce product lines in smart driving, passive components, and storage, while optimizing its product lines towards higher quality offerings, particularly in AI, automotive electronics, and industrial control applications [6].

Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[3] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the relationship remains competitive[3] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[3] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the introduction of incremental reserve tools, with a dynamic calibration approach expected[3] - The emphasis is on promoting the effectiveness of existing policies, particularly concerning employment and systemic risks, while external shocks remain uncertain[3] Investment Strategy - A strategic bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks is recommended, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive stocks[3] - A "barbell" asset allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on resilient dividend assets in finance, resources, and public utilities, while technology remains a key theme[3] Company Highlights - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH) is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution and trade breakthroughs[9] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 713 million yuan, driven by cost control and increased procurement efforts[14] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with significant growth targets set for 2028[21] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Zhuoyue New Energy, risks involve policy advancement not meeting expectations and significant fluctuations in raw material prices[12]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of high-end fruits such as lychee, durian, and cherries have plummeted, with some experiencing price drops exceeding 70% over the past year, and further declines are expected in the future [1]. Price Decline of Specific Fruits - Lychee prices have drastically fallen, with some varieties like "Feizi Xiao" dropping to 2-4 yuan per kilogram from last year's peak of 24 yuan, and even e-commerce platforms offering promotions at 9.9 yuan for three kilograms [2]. - Durian prices have also seen a significant drop, with wholesale prices falling from 35 yuan per jin to 22.4 yuan within a month, a decrease of over one-third [2]. - The price of "Sunshine Rose" grapes has plummeted from 500 yuan per jin a decade ago to just 3 yuan per jin, indicating a dramatic decline in demand [3]. - Cherry prices have decreased from over 100 yuan per jin to around 10-20 yuan, marking the end of their "golden era" in the Chinese market [3]. - Blueberry prices have similarly dropped from over 100 yuan per unit to around 10 yuan per box [4]. Reasons for Price Collapse - The primary reason for the price collapse is a significant increase in production capacity, with lychee production expected to double this year to 3.45 million tons, leading to oversupply [5]. - The planting area for high-end fruits like "Sunshine Rose" grapes has expanded over 50 times in less than a decade, resulting in a surge in production [5]. - Technological advancements in agriculture have enabled local cultivation of blueberries, cherries, and durians, reducing reliance on imports and contributing to increased supply [5][6]. - The logistics sector has improved significantly, with cold chain technology reducing transportation losses from 30% to 10%, and faster shipping methods lowering costs and spoilage [7]. - Consumer behavior has shifted towards more rational spending, with younger generations prioritizing value over brand prestige, leading to increased demand for affordable fruit options [7]. Market Dynamics - E-commerce subsidies and supermarket promotions have accelerated the "de-aristocratization" of high-end fruits, making them more accessible to consumers [8]. - The ongoing trend of domestic production and technological advancements suggests that prices for these fruits may continue to decline in the future [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the effectiveness of grid trading strategies in volatile markets, allowing investors to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends [3][12] - The report identifies suitable characteristics for grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [3][12] Group 2 - The semiconductor ETF (512480.SH) is highlighted due to the increasing domestic substitution under technical sanctions and the rising demand for computing chips driven by AI applications, with a predicted 20% year-on-year growth in AI PC, tablet, and mobile phone shipments by 2025 [3][13] - The artificial intelligence ETF (159819.SZ) benefits from government policies promoting AI technology across various sectors, with 433 domestic large models registered by June 30, 2025, indicating a significant push towards industrial transformation [4][16] - The robotics ETF (159770.SZ) is supported by national policies aiming to establish a humanoid robot innovation system by 2025, showcasing advancements in technology and commercial viability [5][19] - The medical ETF (512170.SH) is driven by the aging global population and supportive policies for innovative drug development, aiming to enhance the quality and efficiency of clinical trials and drug approvals [6][20]

编号：2025-07 | 投资者关系活动类别 | 特定对象调研 ☐分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | ☐媒体采访 ☐业绩说明会 | | | ☐新闻发布会 ☐路演活动 | | | ☐现场参观 | | | ☐其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 活动参与人员 | 泰康基金 卞学清 | | 时间 | 2025年7月2日14:30-15:30 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 形式 | 线下 | | 上市公司接待人员姓名 | 董事会秘书 刘同刚 | | | 证券事务专员 邓丽婷 | | 交流内容及具体问答记录 | 公司与投资者就其关注的问题进行了交流，主要内容包括： 1、公司认为全年业绩增长的空间是什么？ | | | 目前增长主要来源为AI服务器、消费电子、AIoT等新兴领域 | | | 的技术迭代与国产替代加速。公司将聚焦分销主业，加强应用创 | | | 新及生态服务、供应链服务和产业数据服务等能力建设，把握行 | | | 业发展新机遇。 | | | 2、公司存储主要应用于哪些领域？ | | | 公司2024年授权分销业务中，存储器业务收入206.85亿元，同 | | | 比增长134.32 ...

Macro Analysis - The current market is influenced by three main macro variables: domestic demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[9] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate market risk appetite pressures, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[9] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[9] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks is advised, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive markets[10] - A-shares are expected to experience high volatility, emphasizing the need to capture structural opportunities[10] - Suggested asset allocation includes resilient dividend assets in finance, resource sectors, and public utilities, with technology remaining a key focus[10] Company Highlights - Excellence New Energy (688196.SH) is a leader in biodiesel production, with a capacity of approximately 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution[12] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.4% increase, with net profit rising by 12.49% to 713 million yuan[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with gold production projected at 85 tons[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Excellence New Energy, risks involve trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations impacting profitability[16] - For Yipuli, risks include raw material price volatility and project execution delays affecting revenue growth[21]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic GPU sector is experiencing a significant moment with the listing of AI chip companies, particularly with the IPO attempts of Moore Threads and Muxi Integration on the STAR Market, amid rising AI computing demand and U.S. chip restrictions [1][2]. Company Overview - Moore Threads is referred to as the "Chinese version of NVIDIA" due to its similar business focus on GPU development, design, and sales, including AI computing products and graphics acceleration [2]. - The company was founded during a time of increasing demand for semiconductor localization in China, coinciding with the establishment of the STAR Market's registration system, which has facilitated the listing of semiconductor companies [2]. Financial Performance - Moore Threads plans to raise 8 billion yuan through its IPO, but it has reported cumulative losses exceeding 5 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [1][7]. - The company's revenue projections for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 46.09 million yuan, 124 million yuan, and 438 million yuan, respectively, while net losses are projected at -1.84 billion yuan, -1.67 billion yuan, and -1.49 billion yuan for the same years [7]. - Research and development expenses are significantly high, with R&D costs reaching 1.116 billion yuan, 1.334 billion yuan, and 1.359 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing an R&D-to-revenue ratio of 2422.51%, 1076.31%, and 309.88% respectively [7]. Market Context - The AI chip market has seen a cooling of investment enthusiasm, with a shift towards rational investment focusing on product commercialization capabilities [4][8]. - The global GPU market is projected to reach 3.611974 trillion yuan by 2029, with China's GPU market expected to grow to 1.363578 trillion yuan, increasing its global market share from 30.8% in 2024 to 37.8% in 2029 [8]. Competitive Landscape - Moore Threads faces significant competition from established players like NVIDIA and other domestic GPU companies, particularly in training scenarios where their products currently cannot compete with NVIDIA or Huawei [8]. - The company is working on building its own ecosystem, MUSA, which aims to be compatible with NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem, although it acknowledges existing gaps in technology and market presence compared to NVIDIA [6][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - The upgrade of AI special glass fiber is accelerating, with a focus on the volume increase of high-end products [6][10] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8][9] - Recommended investment in domestic substitution chains and African chains, with existing leading companies as the main line for the year [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - In late June, the average shipping rate of national cement enterprises was 43%, down approximately 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The national average cement price decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with most regions experiencing price declines [8][26] - The national cement average price was 357.74 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 37.90 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market saw a slight improvement in transactions, but prices remained stable [9] - The total inventory of monitored provinces was 59 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.52 million weight boxes, with a decline of 2.51% [38][39] - The national average glass price was 69.17 yuan/weight box, down 0.81 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 18.17 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] Special Glass Fiber - China National Materials Technology is a leading domestic supplier of special glass fiber, benefiting from the upgrade trend [7] - The company is expected to achieve a monthly production capacity of 6 million meters by the end of 2026, with a projected performance of approximately 3.8 billion yuan in 2025-2026 [7] - The upgrade from M8 to M9 in copper-clad laminates is expected to drive the scale increase of high-end products [6] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include China National Materials Technology, Meijia Xincai, and Punaite Co., Ltd. for domestic substitution [10] - Keda Manufacturing is recommended for the African chain, benefiting from local market advantages [10] - The report also highlights the potential of Sanhe Tree and Rabbit Baby in the existing stock chain [10]