交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，5月进口大 豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支撑期货盘面底 部，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2990（华东），基差76，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨，上周8.21万吨，环比增加23.26%，去年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2509 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. Influenced by factors such as the US - China tariff negotiation progress, US soybean planting weather, South American soybean harvest, and domestic soybean imports, it maintains a generally weak and oscillatory pattern [9][10]. - **A2507 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4140 and 4240. Affected by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic soybean cost - performance, it is also subject to the impact of the US - China tariff negotiation and South American soybean harvest [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The US - China tariff negotiation has achieved significant progress, and the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on the tariff war and planting weather [15]. - In May, the arrival of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean meal market is in a weak and oscillatory pattern [15]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a weak and oscillatory state [15]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Short - term lower - than - expected arrival of imported soybeans in China, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [16]. - **Bearish**: Increased arrival of imported soybeans in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [16]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: The strong oscillation of US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - **Bearish**: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the planned increase in domestic purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [17]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 3000 (East China), basis is 92, showing a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills is 10.12 tons, a 23.26% increase from last week and an 81.9% decrease from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4160, basis is - 16, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 534.91 tons, a 12.7% increase from last week and a 27.79% increase from the same period last year [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [13]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [34]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans also showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [35]. 3.7 Planting and Harvesting Progress of Major Soybean - Producing Areas - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing a relatively stable development trend [36]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and there are some differences in different stages [37][38][39][40]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the overall progress is relatively smooth [41][42]. - **Argentina (2024/25)**: The planting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and it is advancing steadily [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports (Recent Half - Year) - From October 2024 to April 2025, the harvest area, single - yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans have changed to some extent, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also been adjusted [44]. 3.9 Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory has returned to a low level [47]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have continued to increase, and the stocking demand has increased [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread has narrowed slightly [53]. - The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The prices of pigs and piglets have fluctuated slightly [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [59]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased slightly [61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for innovative thinking and an open attitude to embrace changes in the context of China's economic transformation, driven by business and consumption [3] - The lecture by Song Xiangqing discusses the impact of the China-US tariff war and the necessary adjustments in the global economic landscape, highlighting the inevitability of business transformation and consumption upgrades [4] - Five key paths for breaking through business transformation are identified: innovation in consumption scenarios, green transformation, restructuring of the industrial chain, elevation of brand value, and collaborative innovation between globalization and localization [4] Group 2 - The importance of universities in nurturing innovative forces for the new business era and the responsibility of contemporary college students to contribute to national development is emphasized [4] - The digital economy is portrayed as an inevitable trend driven by historical choices, technological progress, and national aspirations, urging young students to actively embrace this new era [4] - The atmosphere during the lecture was described as lively and engaging, with attendees appreciating the thematic clarity and rich content of the presentation [5]

5月13日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价跌下千元大关，目前这个金价大概和4月中旬那会差不多。周六福等金店金价今 日跌了16元/克，最新标价992元/克，还是最高价金店。上海中国黄金下跌24元/克，报价969元/克，再次成为最低价金店。 今日金店黄金价差23元/克，价差稍稍扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年5月13日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 987 | 元/克 | 13 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 時 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 联 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | ま | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 時 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 995 | 元/克 | 7 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 跌 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 991 | 元/克 | 16 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the recent easing of tensions in the US-China trade war, with both countries agreeing to a 91% reduction in tariffs and establishing a consultation mechanism for future economic discussions [1][5] - On May 12, the same day as the joint statement, Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison Holdings issued a statement emphasizing that port transactions would not occur under any illegal or non-compliant circumstances [3][5] - CK Hutchison's statement reflects a strategic alignment with national interests, indicating a shift in approach following the US's concessions in the trade war, suggesting a potential urgency to adapt to changing circumstances [5][7] Group 2 - The company's decision to clarify its stance on port transactions may be influenced by the recognition of China's economic resilience and the shifting dynamics in US-China relations [7][9] - There are concerns that CK Hutchison's previous plans to split port transactions to avoid antitrust scrutiny may have prompted a change in strategy, as the company seeks to align with regulatory expectations [5][7] - The article suggests that if CK Hutchison does not fully commit to national interests, it risks becoming a "sacrificial pawn" in the broader geopolitical landscape [9]

特朗普（资料图） 据环球时报报道，7日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有外媒记者提问，今天早些时候，商务部和外交部都宣布了中方高层将赴瑞士和美方进行会 谈。中方对此次会谈有何期待？林剑对此表示，美方近期不断的表示，希望同中方进行谈判。这次的会谈是应美方的请求举行的。林剑称，中方坚决反对美 国滥施关税这一立场没有任何变化。同时我们也多次说过，中方对对话持开放态度，但任何对话都必须建立在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上。任何形式的施 压、胁迫对中国都是行不通的。 特朗普（资料图） 美国总统特朗普上台后不久，就重点炒作对华关税问题，并推动实施所谓的"对等关税"。要知道，特朗普此举的目的就是通过经济手段迫使中国在贸易、科 技等领域对美让步，同时减少美国对华贸易逆差、推动制造业回流美国本土。然而，特朗普大概没料到，这一政策在实施过程中暴露出一个严重的问题，那 就是美方的目标和实际效果产生了明显的矛盾。简单来说，就是关税政策不仅没能减少贸易逆差，也没有刺激制造业回流，反而进一步对美国经济造成重 创。 不过最近，特朗普其关税政策和对待美联储的强硬态度严重打击信心后，美国总统特朗普似乎终于认清现实，软化了关税立场，并否认将解雇美联 ...

【导读】军工股持续走强，小米集团盘中跳水 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！一起来关注上午的市场行情和最新资讯。 5月12日上午，A股市场盘中冲高，午前略有回落。截至午间收盘，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.06%，创业板指涨1.72%。 | | 序号 代码 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | _ | 000001 上证指数 | 3354.53 12.53 | | 0.37% | | വ | 399001 深证成指 | 10234.09 107.27 | | 1.06% | | 3 | 899050 北证50 | 1410.60 31.29 | | 2.27% | | 4 | 881001 万得全A | 5109.72 | 38.61 | 0.76% | | 5 | 000688 科创50 -- | 1006.18 | -0.14 | -0.01% | | 6 | 399006 创业板指 | 2046.39 | 34.63 | 1.72% | | 7 | 000300 沪深300 | 3869.78 | 23.63 | 0.61% | | 8 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 节后淡季，豆粕弱势震荡 （豆粕周报5.6-5.9） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡偏强，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强，中 | | | 谈判展开第一步 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期正常，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量低位回升 | | 计维持继续回升 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求预期良好，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报5.6-5.9） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡收涨，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2480，基差-71，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.45万吨，上周0.97万吨，周环比增加49.48%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比 减少44.23%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-12 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2880至2940区间震荡。 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，中美接触性谈判和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，5月进口 大豆到港增多但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支撑期货盘面，进口巴西大豆到港增多 和中美关税战预期交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货3100（华东），基差201，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存8.21万吨，上周7.48万吨，环比增加9.76%，去年同期52.51万吨，同 比减少84.36%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...