Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation and retail sales data [2][3] - Silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8110 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and trading ranged from a low of 8052 yuan to a high of 8165 yuan [1] - International gold prices rose by 1.99% to 3239.66 USD per ounce, while silver increased by 1.26% to 32.616 USD per ounce, indicating a recovery after initial declines [2] Group 2 - The U.S. April PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below expectations, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are causing uncertainty in the market, leading to a cautious outlook on silver futures, with industrial demand being a key factor to monitor [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **豆粕**: The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2860 and 2920. Despite technical support and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war and US soybean - growing weather, the overall pattern is weakly oscillating due to factors like increased imports of Brazilian soybeans and South American soybean harvest expectations [8][9]. - **大豆**: The A2507 contract is likely to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. Influenced by the US soybean market and import volumes, the domestic soybean market is also in a state of weak oscillation, with the price supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans but suppressed by import volumes and production expectations [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No specific daily hints are provided in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation has made significant progress. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on planting and the tariff war [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean market has returned to an oscillating pattern, showing a situation of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly oscillating pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic soybean meal at oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war have caused the soybean meal market to return to an oscillating state, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the China - US tariff war [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish for Soybean Meal**: Lower - than - expected short - term imports of soybeans in China, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the US soybean - growing weather [14]. - **Bearish for Soybean Meal**: The volume of imported soybeans in China rebounded to a high in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues [14]. - **Bullish for Soybeans**: The strong oscillation of US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [15]. - **Bearish for Soybeans**: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2960, with a basis of 37, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 10.12 tons, a 23.26% increase from last week and an 81.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 12, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 534.91 tons, a 12.7% increase from last week and a 27.79% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main players have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main players have increased, and the capital has flowed in [11]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, production, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, production, and import volume increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 3.7 Planting and Harvesting Progress - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2023/24 is presented, with the sowing progress gradually increasing from December 2023 to January 2024 and the harvesting progress increasing from April to June 2024 [34]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US in 2024 are provided, including the sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and harvesting rate at different times [35][36][37][38]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil in 2024/25 is shown, with the planting rate increasing from November 2024 to January 2025 and the harvesting rate increasing from February to May 2025 [39][40]. - **Argentina (2024/25)**: The planting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2024/25 is presented, with the planting rate increasing from November 2024 to January 2025 [41]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from October 2024 to April 2025 show that the US soybean harvest area, yield, production, and other indicators have changed slightly, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also been adjusted [42]. 3.9 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [43]. - The soybean inventory at oil mills rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory dropped to a low level [45]. - The unfulfilled contracts at oil mills continued to increase, indicating an increase in stocking demand [47]. - The soybean crushing volume at oil mills rebounded from a low level, and the soybean meal production in April decreased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread narrowed slightly [51]. - The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [53]. - The prices of pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [57]. - The domestic pig - farming profit decreased slightly [59].

Core Viewpoint - The sale of 43 global port assets by CK Hutchison Holdings to BlackRock for $22.8 billion has raised significant concerns regarding national security and trade stability, particularly given the strategic importance of the Panama Canal ports involved in the transaction [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - CK Hutchison Holdings announced the sale of global port assets, including the crucial Balboa and Cristobal ports, for $22.8 billion [1]. - These ports handle approximately 6% of global trade and are vital for trade between China and the Americas, with Chinese vessels transporting goods worth $2.3 trillion annually through these routes [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The transaction faced immediate scrutiny from the State Administration for Market Regulation, which initiated an antitrust review, emphasizing that such significant transactions must undergo legal scrutiny [3][5]. - CK Hutchison attempted to split the transaction into two parts to evade regulatory oversight, which was met with a firm warning from regulatory authorities that such actions would still require full disclosure and approval [5]. Group 3: Corporate Leadership and Strategy - Li Ka-shing, the 97-year-old figurehead of CK Hutchison, maintained a low profile during the controversy, avoiding public comments on the port sale [6][8]. - Despite his silence, internal board decisions indicated a continued push for the transaction, reflecting a complex internal dynamic regarding the deal [8]. Group 4: Impact of International Relations - A significant shift occurred on May 12, when the U.S. and China reached a consensus to reduce tariffs, which influenced CK Hutchison's stance on the port sale [10]. - Following this diplomatic development, CK Hutchison publicly stated that the transaction would need to meet regulatory approval and other conditions, signaling a retreat from their previous hardline position [10][11]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The incident highlights the intricate relationship between commercial interests and national security, emphasizing that businesses cannot operate independently of state interests [11][13]. - The event serves as a reminder for companies to prioritize national interests over profit, as failure to do so can lead to severe reputational damage and regulatory repercussions [13][15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，5月进口大 豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支撑期货盘面底 部，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2990（华东），基差76，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨，上周8.21万吨，环比增加23.26%，去年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2509 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. Influenced by factors such as the US - China tariff negotiation progress, US soybean planting weather, South American soybean harvest, and domestic soybean imports, it maintains a generally weak and oscillatory pattern [9][10]. - **A2507 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4140 and 4240. Affected by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic soybean cost - performance, it is also subject to the impact of the US - China tariff negotiation and South American soybean harvest [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The US - China tariff negotiation has achieved significant progress, and the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on the tariff war and planting weather [15]. - In May, the arrival of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean meal market is in a weak and oscillatory pattern [15]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a weak and oscillatory state [15]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Short - term lower - than - expected arrival of imported soybeans in China, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [16]. - **Bearish**: Increased arrival of imported soybeans in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [16]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: The strong oscillation of US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - **Bearish**: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the planned increase in domestic purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [17]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 3000 (East China), basis is 92, showing a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills is 10.12 tons, a 23.26% increase from last week and an 81.9% decrease from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4160, basis is - 16, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 534.91 tons, a 12.7% increase from last week and a 27.79% increase from the same period last year [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [13]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [34]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans also showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [35]. 3.7 Planting and Harvesting Progress of Major Soybean - Producing Areas - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing a relatively stable development trend [36]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and there are some differences in different stages [37][38][39][40]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the overall progress is relatively smooth [41][42]. - **Argentina (2024/25)**: The planting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and it is advancing steadily [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports (Recent Half - Year) - From October 2024 to April 2025, the harvest area, single - yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans have changed to some extent, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also been adjusted [44]. 3.9 Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory has returned to a low level [47]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have continued to increase, and the stocking demand has increased [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread has narrowed slightly [53]. - The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The prices of pigs and piglets have fluctuated slightly [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [59]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased slightly [61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for innovative thinking and an open attitude to embrace changes in the context of China's economic transformation, driven by business and consumption [3] - The lecture by Song Xiangqing discusses the impact of the China-US tariff war and the necessary adjustments in the global economic landscape, highlighting the inevitability of business transformation and consumption upgrades [4] - Five key paths for breaking through business transformation are identified: innovation in consumption scenarios, green transformation, restructuring of the industrial chain, elevation of brand value, and collaborative innovation between globalization and localization [4] Group 2 - The importance of universities in nurturing innovative forces for the new business era and the responsibility of contemporary college students to contribute to national development is emphasized [4] - The digital economy is portrayed as an inevitable trend driven by historical choices, technological progress, and national aspirations, urging young students to actively embrace this new era [4] - The atmosphere during the lecture was described as lively and engaging, with attendees appreciating the thematic clarity and rich content of the presentation [5]

5月13日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价跌下千元大关，目前这个金价大概和4月中旬那会差不多。周六福等金店金价今 日跌了16元/克，最新标价992元/克，还是最高价金店。上海中国黄金下跌24元/克，报价969元/克，再次成为最低价金店。 今日金店黄金价差23元/克，价差稍稍扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年5月13日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 987 | 元/克 | 13 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 時 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 联 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | ま | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 時 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 995 | 元/克 | 7 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 992 | 元/克 | 16 | 跌 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 991 | 元/克 | 16 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the recent easing of tensions in the US-China trade war, with both countries agreeing to a 91% reduction in tariffs and establishing a consultation mechanism for future economic discussions [1][5] - On May 12, the same day as the joint statement, Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison Holdings issued a statement emphasizing that port transactions would not occur under any illegal or non-compliant circumstances [3][5] - CK Hutchison's statement reflects a strategic alignment with national interests, indicating a shift in approach following the US's concessions in the trade war, suggesting a potential urgency to adapt to changing circumstances [5][7] Group 2 - The company's decision to clarify its stance on port transactions may be influenced by the recognition of China's economic resilience and the shifting dynamics in US-China relations [7][9] - There are concerns that CK Hutchison's previous plans to split port transactions to avoid antitrust scrutiny may have prompted a change in strategy, as the company seeks to align with regulatory expectations [5][7] - The article suggests that if CK Hutchison does not fully commit to national interests, it risks becoming a "sacrificial pawn" in the broader geopolitical landscape [9]

特朗普（资料图） 据环球时报报道，7日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有外媒记者提问，今天早些时候，商务部和外交部都宣布了中方高层将赴瑞士和美方进行会 谈。中方对此次会谈有何期待？林剑对此表示，美方近期不断的表示，希望同中方进行谈判。这次的会谈是应美方的请求举行的。林剑称，中方坚决反对美 国滥施关税这一立场没有任何变化。同时我们也多次说过，中方对对话持开放态度，但任何对话都必须建立在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上。任何形式的施 压、胁迫对中国都是行不通的。 特朗普（资料图） 美国总统特朗普上台后不久，就重点炒作对华关税问题，并推动实施所谓的"对等关税"。要知道，特朗普此举的目的就是通过经济手段迫使中国在贸易、科 技等领域对美让步，同时减少美国对华贸易逆差、推动制造业回流美国本土。然而，特朗普大概没料到，这一政策在实施过程中暴露出一个严重的问题，那 就是美方的目标和实际效果产生了明显的矛盾。简单来说，就是关税政策不仅没能减少贸易逆差，也没有刺激制造业回流，反而进一步对美国经济造成重 创。 不过最近，特朗普其关税政策和对待美联储的强硬态度严重打击信心后，美国总统特朗普似乎终于认清现实，软化了关税立场，并否认将解雇美联 ...

【导读】军工股持续走强，小米集团盘中跳水 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！一起来关注上午的市场行情和最新资讯。 5月12日上午，A股市场盘中冲高，午前略有回落。截至午间收盘，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.06%，创业板指涨1.72%。 | | 序号 代码 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | _ | 000001 上证指数 | 3354.53 12.53 | | 0.37% | | വ | 399001 深证成指 | 10234.09 107.27 | | 1.06% | | 3 | 899050 北证50 | 1410.60 31.29 | | 2.27% | | 4 | 881001 万得全A | 5109.72 | 38.61 | 0.76% | | 5 | 000688 科创50 -- | 1006.18 | -0.14 | -0.01% | | 6 | 399006 创业板指 | 2046.39 | 34.63 | 1.72% | | 7 | 000300 沪深300 | 3869.78 | 23.63 | 0.61% | | 8 ...