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可转债周报:财报披露进入加速期,如何识别风险?-20250422
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-22 05:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak expectation of the 2024 annual report performance may gradually materialize, with negative category performance forecasts significantly increasing compared to the previous two years. However, the sentiment in 2025 may be relatively controllable, and the over - selling of low - and medium - rated convertible bonds during the performance disclosure period is not significant [9][10]. - The new "Nine - Point Plan" has tightened the requirements for dividends. The performance disclosure in April will determine whether some underlying stocks of convertible bonds will face ST/*ST [10]. - The divergence between convertible bonds and underlying stocks may indicate the pressure of inventory liquidation. Attention should be paid to the annual report performance of underlying stocks, especially those with poor subsequent hematopoietic ability, and the potential disturbances caused by institutional inventory liquidation [18][19]. - Last week, the convertible bond market declined, and the conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales were compressed [22][30]. - Last week, Huisheng and Daowen convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Shouhua convertible bonds proposed a downward revision. The approval situation of the China Securities Regulatory Commission for convertible bonds is fair, with a pending issuance scale of about 15.6 billion yuan [48][51]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. How to Identify Risks as the Financial Report Disclosure Enters the Acceleration Phase - *ST Puli will enter the delisting consolidation period on April 28, 2025, and Puli convertible bonds will become the fifth convertible bonds to delist with the underlying stock [1][9]. - As of January 31, among the 254 convertible bond issuers that disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts, the proportion of negative category performance forecasts increased by nearly 10 pcts to 66.93% compared to the previous two years, with the frequency and probability of first - losses and continued losses increasing [9]. - As of April 18, 2025, among the 177 underlying stocks of convertible bonds that announced their 2024 annual performance, 96 achieved a year - on - year positive increase in net profit attributable to the parent, while 79 had a decrease/turn - negative/expanded loss. Low - and medium - rated convertible bonds did not experience significant over - selling during the performance disclosure period [10]. - The "New Nine - Point Plan" has tightened the requirements for dividends. Currently, no disclosed underlying stocks of convertible bonds meet the delisting risk warning criteria. *ST Puli and *ST Tianchuang are under delisting warning, and ST Zhongzhuang and ST Dongshi are under other risk warnings [15][16]. - To avoid inventory liquidation risks or spread losses, forward - looking indicators such as the price trends of stocks and convertible bonds, and negative public opinion events should be considered. Stocks with characteristics such as net profit losses, significant net profit decreases, weak solvency, and private enterprises should be focused on [18][19]. 3.2. Market Review: Weekly Decline and Valuation Compression of Convertible Bonds 3.2.1. Weekly Market Conditions - Last week, the major stock indices showed differentiation, and the convertible bond market declined. There are 481 issued but unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 700.761 billion yuan. Qingyuan, Anji, Weice, and Dinglong convertible bonds have not been listed for trading, and there are no convertible bonds to be issued [22]. - In the equity market, sectors such as banking, real estate, and media led the gains, while machinery, automobiles, and computers led the losses. In the convertible bond market, sectors such as building materials and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while communication, power equipment, and agriculture led the losses [24]. - Among popular concepts, radio frequency and antennas, first - tier real estate developers, etc. led the gains, while optical chips, consumer electronics OEM, etc. led the losses [24]. 3.2.2. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 116.33 yuan, a 0.65% decrease from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds all decreased [30]. - The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales was compressed. The AAA - rated convertible bonds decreased by 3.81 pcts, and the convertible bonds with a scale of over 5 billion yuan decreased by 3.75 pcts. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a par value below 80 yuan (inclusive) increased by 4.72 pcts [30]. 3.3. Terms and Supply: Huisheng and Daowen Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and the Approval of the CSRC for Convertible Bonds is Fair 3.3.1. Terms - As of April 18, Huisheng and Daowen convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Nuotai convertible bonds announced redemption arrangements. Zhongqi, Tianlu, and Fuxin convertible bonds announced no early redemptions. No convertible bonds announced expected fulfillment of redemption conditions [48]. - As of April 18, Shouhua convertible bonds' board of directors proposed a downward revision, and Bohui convertible bonds announced the result of the downward revision, which was basically at the bottom. Thirteen convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 41 convertible bonds announced expected triggers for downward revisions [48]. 3.3.2. Primary Market - Last week, Taineng convertible bonds were newly listed with a scale of 2.95 billion yuan, and there were no new issuances of convertible bonds [50]. - Last week, there were no new board proposals, 5 new shareholder meeting approvals, no new approvals from the issuance review committee, and no new approvals from the CSRC. As of April 18, 6 listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuances with a proposed issuance scale of 12.966 billion yuan, and 4 companies passed the issuance review committee with a total scale of 2.632 billion yuan [51][55].
如何看待转债资金回流?
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-20 05:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The darkest moment at the bottom may have passed, and the inflection point of the convertible bond market's repair is approaching. With the easing of the tariff storm, the convertible bond market has seen capital inflows, and the approval of convertible bond plans has accelerated, optimizing the supply - demand pattern [1][15]. - In April, it is recommended to focus on high - rating and stable convertible bonds, reduce the export risk exposure in the convertible bond portfolio, and pay attention to infrastructure, domestic economic ballast - type cyclical industries, and hedging and strategic resource industries. Starting from May, technology - independent growth industries are expected to regain market attention [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1 How to View the Return of Convertible Bond Funds - With the easing of the tariff storm, the market has gradually recovered, and convertible bond ETFs have been repurchased. Since April 17, the A - share market has stopped falling and rebounded, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 0.19% on that day. The Bosera Convertible Bond ETF had a net increase of 0.59 billion shares this week, with a circulation scale increase of 495 million yuan [1][10]. - The convertible bond market's bottom may have passed, and the allocation cost - effectiveness is prominent, which is the main reason for the return of funds. The approval of convertible bond plans has accelerated, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to optimize [15]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the three major A - share indexes showed differentiation, with precious metals and cyclical sectors oscillating strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.54% and 0.64% respectively [20][21]. - The current A - share market valuation has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level in the long - term. The risk - return ratio shows good allocation cost - effectiveness. The convertible bond issuance pressure is expected to be low, but attention should be paid to the valuation callback risk. Also, continue to pay attention to the downward - revision game space and be vigilant against the forced - redemption risk [21]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic - demand directions, central state - owned enterprises under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [22]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Market Differentiation, Defensive Industries such as Banks Strengthen - This week, the equity market had mixed performance. The Wind All - A Index rose 0.39%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19%, and the market style was more inclined to large - cap growth. Among the Shenwan industry indexes, 23 industries rose and 8 industries fell, with banks, real estate, and the comprehensive industry leading the gains [25][27]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market Declined, Hundred - Yuan Premium Rate Slightly Decreased - The convertible bond market declined this week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.58%, and the average daily trading volume decreased significantly. The average daily trading volume was 52.703 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.389 billion yuan from last week [30]. - In the convertible bond industry, 5 industries rose and 24 industries fell. The corresponding underlying stocks also showed mixed performance, with 13 industries rising and 16 industries falling [33]. - Most individual convertible bonds fell. The top five weekly gainers and losers are listed, as well as the top five in terms of weekly trading volume [36]. - The number of low - price convertible bonds increased, and the median price of convertible bonds decreased. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [39][44]. 3.2.3 High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds - **Market Index Performance**: All convertible bonds with different parities declined this week. High - parity convertible bonds are more elastic. Among the stock - bond classification, the stock - oriented convertible bonds rose, while the balanced and bond - oriented convertible bonds fell. Historically, stock - oriented convertible bonds are more elastic, and balanced convertible bonds are more resistant to decline. Among different ratings, AAA and A - and below rated convertible bonds rose, and other ratings fell. All convertible bonds in different size segments declined this week [47][49]. - **Classification Valuation Changes**: The valuations of stock - oriented and balanced convertible bonds declined this week. The valuations of convertible bonds with parities below 80 yuan and between 100 - 110 yuan increased, while most others decreased. The valuations of convertible bonds with different ratings and sizes all declined [53]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1 This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - One new convertible bond was listed this week, and four are pending listing. The primary approval number was 14. Since the beginning of 2023 to April 18, 2025, there have been 89 planned convertible bonds, with a total scale of 149.534 billion yuan [64][65]. 3.3.2 Downward - Revision and Redemption Clauses - **Downward - Revision Clauses**: 42 convertible bonds announced the expected trigger of downward - revision, 13 announced no downward - revision, 1 proposed downward - revision, and 2 actually carried out downward - revision [5][69]. - **Redemption Clauses**: 4 convertible bonds announced the expected trigger of redemption, 3 announced no early redemption, and 2 announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, 2 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 21 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [5][78].
研选 | 光大研究每周重点报告 20250405-20250411
光大证券研究· 2025-04-11 09:02
Group 1: Market Overview - The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market in Q1 2025, continuing a trend of declining outstanding scale since Q4 2023 [2] - During the 2018-2019 US-China tariff friction, the convertible bond market significantly outperformed the equity market, with the convertible bond index rising nearly 25%, while the CSI 300 index only saw a slight increase [2] - The current market environment emphasizes the need for defensive strategies before making further allocations [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - Bozhong Precision - Bozhong Precision is a leading player in the 3C automation equipment sector, with capabilities covering the FATP segment [4] - In 2023, the company successfully delivered over 40 flexible modular production lines to clients [4] - As a key supplier of flexible automation production line equipment for top consumer electronics companies, Bozhong is expected to benefit from product innovation and increased automation rates, with long-term growth potential in its 3C business [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Dashijia - Dashijia is the exclusive franchisee of Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau [4] - Since 2023, the company has accelerated its market expansion, reaching 1,008 stores in mainland China by December 2024 [4] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with a management team possessing extensive industry and management experience, supported by a well-structured compensation incentive system [4]
一季度A股股权融资市场发行节奏平稳 中信证券位居券商总承销金额榜首
智通财经网· 2025-04-01 03:28
Overview of Equity Financing Market - In Q1 2025, the A-share equity financing market maintained a steady issuance rhythm, with a total of 57 financing events, a decrease of 21 events compared to the same period last year, raising a total of 92.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.82% [1][2] - The number of IPOs was 25, down by 6 from the previous year, with a fundraising scale of 15.82 billion yuan, a decline of 41.39% [1][2][16] - The number of private placements was 24, down by 14, raising a total of 62.755 billion yuan, an increase of 24.08% year-on-year [1][2] Financing Method Distribution - In Q1 2025, the distribution of financing methods showed that IPOs accounted for 17.15% of the total, with 25 events raising 15.82 billion yuan; private placements accounted for 68.02%, with 24 events raising 62.755 billion yuan; and convertible bonds accounted for 14.83%, with 8 events raising 13.68 billion yuan [5][8] Industry Distribution of Financing Entities - The hardware equipment industry led the fundraising with 21.3 billion yuan, followed by non-bank financials and public utilities with 12 billion yuan and 11.9 billion yuan, respectively [9] Regional Distribution of Financing Entities - Shanghai ranked first in fundraising with 18.018 billion yuan from 6 projects, primarily due to Guotai Junan's private placement project. Shaanxi followed with 17.439 billion yuan from 1 project, and Guangdong raised 15.891 billion yuan from 9 projects [12][15] IPO Distribution by Board - The innovation and entrepreneurship board led the fundraising with a total of 59.17% of the total IPO amount. The Shanghai main board had 5 IPOs raising 3.507 billion yuan (22.17%), while the Shenzhen main board had 3 IPOs raising 1.656 billion yuan (10.46%) [18][21] Top 10 IPO Financing Amounts - The highest IPO financing in Q1 2025 was from Kaifa Technology, raising 1.169 billion yuan, followed by Xingfu Electronics and Hanshu Technology with 1.168 billion yuan and 1.162 billion yuan, respectively [28][29] Trends in Private Placement Financing - In Q1 2025, the overall financing scale of private placements slightly exceeded the same period last year, with 24 events raising 62.755 billion yuan, an increase of 24.08% year-on-year [30] Top 10 Underwriters by Total Amount - CITIC Securities topped the underwriting amount with 30.352 billion yuan, followed by AVIC Securities with 8.720 billion yuan and Dongfang Securities with 7.141 billion yuan [45][46]
盘点四种不同策略的“固收+”基金
雪球· 2025-03-13 04:54
以下文章来源于二鸟说 ,作者二鸟说 二鸟说 . 专注于基金投资,秉承长期投资,价值投资,稳健投资的原则,合理进行大类资产配置,科学的择基, 适当择时,实现资产长期稳健增值。 长按即可免费加入哦 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:二鸟说 来源:雪球 2024年以来债市维持强势 , 权益类资产整体震荡 、 局部不乏行情 , 部分 " 固收+ " 产品在较为 复杂的市场环境中 , 依然把 " + " 这一部分做的比较出彩 。 这些基金采用的策略有较大的差别 , 具有各自独特的风险收益特征 , 给了投资者丰富的可选项 。 经过深入研究 , 我们选取了四只采用不同策略的产品 , 供大家参考 。 其中 , 华安强化收益债 券是 " 固收+可转债 " , 华泰柏瑞鼎利灵活配置混合是 " 固收+周期股 ( 主要是黄金股 ) " , 易 方达瑞锦混合是 " 固收+红利 " , 招商安阳债券是 " 固收+量化选股 " 策略 。 下面来为大家详细 介绍一下 。 一 、 华安强化收益债券 郑伟山自2022年9月16日开始管理华安强化收益债券 , 过去1年收益为11.41% , ...