Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the promotion of high-quality development in the real estate sector [1] - The establishment of a new model for real estate development is highlighted, focusing on improving the foundational systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales [1] - There is a call to optimize the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban working groups and various disadvantaged families [1] Group 2 - The strategy includes implementing city-specific policies to increase the supply of improved housing [1] - The construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses" is prioritized, along with the execution of housing quality enhancement projects and property service quality improvement actions [1] - A comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is to be established [1]

Core Viewpoint - The forum focused on the theme of building "good houses" and providing "good services" to enhance the quality of life, emphasizing collaboration among government, enterprises, and research institutions to innovate in housing development [1][4][8]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Shenzhen government is committed to high-quality urban development, aiming to create a modern, resilient, and intelligent city while promoting a new model for real estate development [4][8]. - The Guangdong Provincial Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department is implementing various local standards to support the construction of "good houses" and is promoting the transformation of the construction industry towards green, industrialized, and intelligent practices [4][5]. Group 2: Housing Quality and Standards - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is pushing for the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses," focusing on enhancing the entire lifecycle of housing design, construction, and maintenance [5][9]. - The concept of "good houses" includes improving supply quality, reducing environmental impact, and fostering a modernized residential industry [9][10]. Group 3: Community and Service Enhancements - The importance of property services in supporting "good houses" is highlighted, with initiatives aimed at improving service quality and integrating property management into community governance [6][12]. - The forum discussed the need for a comprehensive service support system to address residents' needs and enhance community living standards [12][18]. Group 4: Financial Support and Innovation - Financial institutions, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, are actively providing customized loan products to support the "four good" construction initiatives, ensuring adequate funding for housing projects [9][17]. - The Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Management Center is enhancing digital services to better assist residents in addressing housing issues, focusing on optimizing service capabilities [7][13]. Group 5: Technological Integration - The integration of technology in housing development is emphasized, with companies exploring smart home solutions and digital services to improve living experiences [15][14]. - Innovations in property services, such as AI applications, are being implemented to enhance efficiency and service quality in the housing sector [14][15]. Group 6: Practical Examples and Case Studies - The forum included practical examples of successful housing projects, such as the Shenzhen Deep Rail Qianhai Times Respectful Project, showcasing the integration of green building practices and smart operations [19]. - Participants visited various projects to observe the implementation of "good houses" and community services, reinforcing the collaborative efforts in housing development [19].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The weak trend of housing prices continued in September 2025, with a 0.4% month - on - month decline in the prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 cities and a 0.6% decline in second - hand housing prices. [1] - In September, real - estate sales showed resilience through "trading price for volume", with a 48.5% month - on - month increase in the sales area of new homes and a 47.2% increase in sales volume. [1] - After the National Day, second - hand housing transactions in 15 cities increased for two consecutive weeks, indicating strong market resilience, while the recovery momentum of the new - home market weakened. [2] - The industry is accelerating towards "high - quality development", with policy signals indicating a shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" and from "incremental development" to "stock operation". [4] 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Transaction Data - **Second - hand housing**: In the week of October 17 - 23, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.33 million square meters, a 7% week - on - week increase, reaching 79% of the annual high. Although it decreased by 14% year - on - year due to the high base last year, it still had a 11% positive growth compared to the same period in 2023. [2] - **New homes**: In the week of October 17 - 23, the transaction area of new homes in 38 cities was 2.82 million square meters, a 3% week - on - week increase, but a 19% year - on - year decline. From October 1 - 23, the year - on - year decline widened to 24%. [2] 3.2 City - Level Analysis - **Second - hand housing**: First - tier cities' weekly transactions declined for two consecutive weeks, with a 2% decline this week. Second - and third - tier cities performed well, with a 14% and 12% week - on - week increase in transaction areas respectively. [3] - **New homes**: The new - home market showed "first - tier cities rebounding, second - and third - tier cities weakening". First - tier cities' transactions rebounded by 15% week - on - week, and third - tier cities increased by 12%, while second - tier cities decreased by 7%. [3] 3.3 Key City Observations - **First - tier cities**: From October 17 - 23, the second - hand housing transaction area in first - tier cities decreased by 2% week - on - week and 21% year - on - year. The new - home transaction area increased by 15% week - on - week and decreased by 19% year - on - year. [29] - **Other key cities**: In Hangzhou, the second - hand and new - home transaction areas decreased by 4% and 38% respectively compared to the previous week. In Chengdu, they increased by 12% and 2% respectively. [30] 3.4 Housing Price Observations - **Second - hand housing**: In September 2025, the second - hand housing price index in first - tier cities continued to decline, with a 1.0% month - on - month decline and a 3.2% year - on - year decline. [55] - **New homes**: In September 2025, the price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. [55]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector as a key strategy for improving people's livelihoods and achieving common prosperity [2][4]. Group 1: High-Quality Development Framework - The new framework integrates "promoting high-quality development" of real estate into the broader context of improving people's livelihoods, marking a shift from viewing real estate merely as a tool for economic stimulus to a critical component of national strategies [4]. - The concept of "high-quality development" is multi-dimensional and systematic, focusing on urban development and renewal, and aims to create a robust supply system, rational resource allocation, and sound regulatory frameworks [6]. Group 2: Key Components of New Development Model - The new model includes four main aspects: 1. Improving the housing supply system to ensure clear roles for both affordable and market-based housing, while fostering a professional rental market [6]. 2. Establishing a mechanism linking "people, housing, land, and finance" to balance supply and demand based on population changes [7]. 3. Reforming real estate development, financing, and sales systems to ensure compliance and protect investors [7]. 4. Promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, enhancing standards and operational management throughout the housing lifecycle [7][10]. Group 3: Future Policy Adjustments - Future policy adjustments will reflect three core changes: 1. A comprehensive push for high-quality development that encompasses supply, demand, and operation, shifting focus from new development to optimizing existing resources [12]. 2. Accelerating the formation of a coordinated urban and rural development pattern, enhancing housing demand through urbanization and rural revitalization [13]. 3. Balancing the attributes of public welfare and market functions, ensuring that housing policies remain focused on people's needs while maintaining market vitality [14][15]. Group 4: Significance of High-Quality Development - High-quality development in real estate is crucial for economic growth, enhancing living standards, and ensuring sustainable industry development, transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement [17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and prices, driven by policy adjustments and seasonal demand [1][2]. Group 1: Sales and Price Trends - In September, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 85.31 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 48.5% [1]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing in September was 802.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 47.3% [1]. - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 11.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. - The sales revenue of commercial housing fell by 7.9% year-on-year, narrowing by 14.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - In September, the year-on-year decline in new residential prices in first-tier cities was 0.7%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year price declines of 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively, both narrowing by 0.3 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Funding - The inventory of commercial housing decreased by 2.41 million square meters at the end of September compared to the end of August, marking seven consecutive months of reduction [2]. - From January to September, the funds available to real estate developers decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, a narrowing of 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: Future Development Strategies - A new model for real estate development is needed, focusing on a clear supply system for basic and diverse housing needs [3]. - Establishing a mechanism for the interaction of "people, housing, land, and finance" is essential for balancing supply and demand in the real estate market [3]. - Reforming the real estate development, financing, and sales systems is crucial to prevent risks and ensure project delivery [3]. - The goal is to develop safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing, enhancing standards and operational levels in the housing sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and prices, driven by policy adjustments and seasonal demand [1][2]. Group 1: Sales and Price Trends - In September, new residential property sales area reached 85.31 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 48.5% [1]. - New residential property sales value in September was 802.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 47.3% [1]. - From January to September, the sales area of new residential properties decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 11.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. - The sales value of residential properties fell by 7.9% year-on-year, narrowing by 14.8 percentage points compared to last year [1]. - In September, the year-on-year decline in new residential property prices in first-tier cities was 0.7%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year price declines of 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively, both narrowing by 0.3 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Funding - The inventory of residential properties decreased by 2.41 million square meters at the end of September compared to the end of August, marking seven consecutive months of decline [2]. - From January to September, funding for real estate development enterprises fell by 8.4% year-on-year, but the decline was 11.6 percentage points less than the previous year [2]. Group 3: Future Development Strategies - A new model for real estate development is needed, focusing on a clear and complementary supply structure for basic and diverse housing needs [3]. - Establishing a mechanism for the interaction of "people, housing, land, and finance" is essential for balancing supply and demand in the real estate market [3]. - Reforming real estate development, financing, and sales systems is crucial to prevent risks and ensure project delivery [3]. - The goal is to develop safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing, improving standards and operational levels across the housing sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in sales and prices, indicating progress towards stabilization and inventory reduction [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 11.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The sales revenue of commercial housing fell by 7.9% year-on-year, with a decline reduction of 14.8 percentage points compared to last year [2] - In September, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 85.31 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 48.5% [1] - The sales revenue for new commercial housing in September was 802.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 47.3% [1] Group 2: Price Trends - In September, the year-on-year decline in new residential prices in first-tier cities was 0.7%, a narrowing of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Second and third-tier cities saw new residential prices decrease by 2.1% and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively, with both declines narrowing by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The year-on-year decline in second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities was 3.2%, also narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 3: Inventory and Funding - By the end of September, the inventory of commercial housing decreased by 2.41 million square meters compared to the end of August, marking a continuous reduction for seven months [2] - The funds available to real estate developers decreased by 8.4% year-on-year from January to September, but the decline was 11.6 percentage points less than the same period last year [2] Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The industry aims to enhance the housing supply system to better meet the basic and diverse housing needs of the population [3] - A new model for real estate development is proposed, focusing on a clear and complementary supply structure between guaranteed and market-based housing [3] - The establishment of a "people, housing, land, and money" linkage mechanism is suggested to balance supply and demand in the real estate market [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Dezhou has made significant progress in housing and urban construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development that prioritizes people's well-being and urban renewal [3][4][5]. Group 1: Focus on People's Livelihood - The city has emphasized improving living conditions, transitioning from "housing for all" to "quality housing for all," ensuring that development outcomes benefit all citizens [3][4]. - Housing security has been enhanced, with 88,000 units for relocation and 176,000 units of affordable housing constructed, benefiting 105,000 households [4]. - Initiatives such as the "micro-renovation" project have improved 845 old communities, adding 100,000 electric vehicle charging ports and installing 861 elevators in existing residential buildings [4]. Group 2: Urban Quality Enhancement - Urban renewal has been a key strategy, with 78 comprehensive area renovations and an investment of 87 billion yuan in 526 urban construction projects [5]. - Infrastructure improvements include the establishment of 238 square kilometers of sponge city, with water supply, gas, and sewage treatment rates exceeding 98% [5]. - The construction of 300 prefabricated rural houses and the renovation of 3,490 dangerous houses have been completed, enhancing rural living conditions [5]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Innovation - The construction industry has seen a significant increase in output, growing from 34.41 billion yuan in 2020 to 46.08 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 7% [6]. - The city has introduced policies to promote residential quality upgrades, with five projects recognized as national high-quality housing [6]. - A new model for real estate development has been explored, with the city approved as a pilot for nationwide pre-sale housing [6]. Group 4: Safety and Quality Assurance - Safety remains a top priority, with extensive actions taken to improve gas safety, including the renovation of 598.9 kilometers of gas pipelines [7]. - Quality control measures have been strengthened, leading to national awards for engineering quality and safety [7].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown signs of improvement with a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes. New home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the inventory of new homes decreased [5][16] - A new housing provident fund policy in Chengdu broadens eligibility for converting commercial loans to provident fund loans, potentially stimulating demand [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, new home transaction volume in 40 cities reached 26,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 168.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%. The transaction area was 2.702 million square meters, up 170.6% month-on-month and down 22.9% year-on-year [17][24] - Transaction volumes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of 130.8%, 220.2%, and 122.2% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -35.3%, 0.01%, and -34.9% [17][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transactions totaled 20,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 193.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. The transaction area was 183,300 square meters, up 188.9% month-on-month and down 30.9% year-on-year [45][50] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities saw month-on-month transaction growth rates of 241.6%, 184.7%, and 163.8% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -27.5%, -30.7%, and -33.9% [45][51] 3. Inventory and Depletion Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 14.1 million units, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.05% and a year-on-year decline of 13.7%. The depletion cycle for new home inventory was 20.9 months, down 0.8 months month-on-month and up 0.4 months year-on-year [27][39] - The depletion cycle for new homes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities was 21.0, 17.8, and 88.6 months respectively, with month-on-month declines of 0.6, 0.9, and 5.2 months [39][43] 4. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 8.157 million square meters, down 28.4% month-on-month and down 59.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 20.16 billion yuan, down 51.1% month-on-month and down 57.9% year-on-year [60][63] - The average land price was 2,471.3 yuan per square meter, down 31.7% month-on-month but up 4.1% year-on-year. The land premium rate was 2.2%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [60][64] 5. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced reforms focusing on housing supply systems and urban construction, aiming to establish a new mechanism for real estate development [97]

Monetary Policy Overview - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) held its 2025 Q3 monetary policy committee meeting on September 23, emphasizing the need for appropriate monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4][5] - The meeting highlighted the effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, which have improved the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and kept social financing costs at historically low levels [4][5] Economic Analysis - The committee analyzed both domestic and international economic conditions, noting a more complex external environment with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers [4][6] - Despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, China's economy is showing steady progress, with rising social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development [4][6] Banking Sector Focus - The meeting called for large banks to enhance their role in serving the real economy while encouraging small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [5][6] - It emphasized the importance of implementing structural monetary policy tools effectively and supporting key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [5][6] Real Estate Development - The article discusses the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development, which is crucial for addressing the significant changes in supply and demand dynamics in the real estate market [8][10] - The central government has prioritized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting a new development model, as indicated in recent political meetings [8][14] Challenges and Recommendations - The real estate sector faces challenges such as high debt levels among developers and insufficient supply of affordable housing, necessitating a shift towards a new development model that balances market forces with guarantees [9][10] - Experts suggest that reforms should focus on housing, land, fiscal, and financial systems to achieve a stable and sustainable real estate market [13][14]