Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have experienced a downward trend, with the latest adjustment marking the 10th decrease of the year, providing relief to consumers [1][3]. Price Adjustments - As of November 26, the expected reduction in gasoline and diesel prices has reached 90 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.07-0.08 yuan per liter [3][4]. - The total adjustments for the year have resulted in a cumulative decrease of 690 yuan per ton for gasoline and 660 yuan per ton for diesel, equating to over 0.54 yuan per liter compared to the end of last year [3][4]. Monthly Trends - Throughout the year, oil prices have predominantly shown a pattern of more declines than increases, with 6 months of price drops compared to only 4 months of increases [4]. - November saw a net increase of 55 yuan per ton, despite fluctuations, indicating a potential short-term rebound within a broader downward trend [4]. Future Expectations - The next price adjustment window is set for December 8, with expectations that it could mark the 11th decrease of the year [4][9]. - Current prices for 92 octane gasoline have entered the "6 yuan era," with prices in some regions as low as 6.85 yuan per liter [5]. International Market Influence - Recent declines in international oil prices are attributed to geopolitical factors, including a ceasefire signal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns over global energy supply surplus [7]. - As of November 26, WTI crude oil was priced at $57.95 per barrel, and Brent crude at $62.48 per barrel, both showing a daily decline of over 1.4% [5]. Consumer Impact - The anticipated price drop could lead to significant savings for consumers, with potential savings of 3.5-4 yuan for a full 50-liter tank if the expected reductions are realized [7]. - The current lowest price for 92 octane gasoline has reached 6.78 yuan per liter in some regions, indicating a trend towards new annual lows [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil retail prices are expected to experience the tenth decline of the year by November 24, driven by fluctuating oil prices and a recent unexpected decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, alongside increased gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S. [2] Price Adjustments - The average price of the referenced crude oil varieties as of November 24 is $61.68 per barrel, with a change rate of -1.21%, leading to a reduction of 70 yuan per ton for gasoline and 65 yuan per ton for diesel [2] - The price adjustments will result in a decrease of approximately 0.05 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.06 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.06 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2] - After the price adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will be approximately 6.86 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will decrease to around 7.35 yuan per liter [2] Yearly Price Trends - The year-to-date adjustments in refined oil prices show a pattern of "7 increases, 10 decreases, and 6 unchanged," with cumulative reductions of 690 yuan per ton for gasoline and 660 yuan per ton for diesel [2] Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will save consumers about 2.5 yuan [3] - For a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by approximately 4 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see a reduction of around 114 yuan in fuel costs [3] Market Outlook - Future expectations suggest that ongoing negotiations in Eastern Europe may alleviate oil supply concerns, potentially leading to a weaker oil market amid international trade disputes and overcapacity predictions [3] - Analysts predict a high probability of further price reductions in the next round of refined oil price adjustments due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts [3] - The next price adjustment window is set to open on December 8, 2025, at 24:00 [3]

Core Insights - The current expectation is for a reduction in domestic oil prices by 90 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.07-0.08 yuan per liter, with the decline potentially exceeding the threshold for price adjustments [1][4] - International oil prices have experienced a significant drop, influenced by geopolitical factors and market dynamics, with U.S. crude oil prices falling by 1.32% to $58.10 per barrel [4] Price Adjustments - The next round of oil price adjustments is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [5] - Current fuel prices in various regions are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.89, 95 gasoline at 7.33, 98 gasoline at 8.83, 0 diesel at 6.56 - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.85, 95 gasoline at 7.29, 98 gasoline at 9.19, 0 diesel at 6.50 - Other regions also show similar pricing trends [5][6] Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk premium associated with the Russia-Ukraine situation has decreased, contributing to the recent drop in international oil prices [4] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory report indicated a decrease of 1.859 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of an increase, while gasoline and diesel inventories have risen [4] - Upcoming U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data and initial jobless claims are anticipated to further influence oil prices [4]

1. Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation has eased as the US is promoting an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has drafted a peace framework. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US are about to take effect, and the proportion of Russian oil with unknown export destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. With the geopolitical risks in the market easing recently and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the report suggests a bearish approach to crude oil, recommending shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $58.80, closing at $57.98, with a high of $58.80, a low of $57.38, a decline of 1.73%, and a trading volume of 32.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $62.40, closing at $61.89, with a high of $62.47, a low of $61.26, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 41.05 million lots. SC's opening price was 449.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 447.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 449.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.13%, and a trading volume of 10.81 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds or engage in reverse arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Industry News - After US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to Brent spot prices (CIF). Most Indian refiners stopped ordering Russian crude after the sanctions, but some are now considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers due to the lower price, with only about one-fifth of the cargoes coming from non-blacklisted entities [7]. - The US is preparing a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days [7]. - The US and Ukraine issued a joint statement stating that they have improved the Russia-Ukraine peace framework [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [9][10][17][21]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have surged due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has strengthened market optimism regarding economic recovery and supported oil demand [3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On the previous day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose by 1.57%, closing at $58.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.42%, closing at $62.73 per barrel [3] - As of the latest update, WTI crude oil is reported at $58.72 per barrel, reflecting a slight decline of 0.29% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Analysts suggest that any signs of a ceasefire or agreement in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations could accelerate a price drop, while the possibility of continued conflict may keep geopolitical risk premiums supporting higher oil prices [3] - Ukrainian officials have indicated that the previous 28-point peace plan is no longer valid, and a new 19-point peace plan has been drafted, leaving the most sensitive political aspects for the presidents of both countries to decide [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, international oil prices are expected to remain volatile as the market awaits developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, with potential for price declines in the current round of oil price adjustments [4] - The next round of oil price adjustments is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [4]

Group 1 - The retail prices of gasoline and diesel have been reduced for the tenth time this year, with gasoline prices decreasing by 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per liter and diesel prices by 65 to 70 yuan per ton [1][2] - Consumers will save approximately 2.5 yuan when filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline, leading to a reduction in fuel costs for both private and commercial vehicles [1] - The oil price fluctuations have been influenced by geopolitical factors and unexpected decreases in U.S. crude oil inventories, alongside increased gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S., indicating a short-term strengthening of the oil market [1] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, domestic oil prices have undergone 22 adjustments, resulting in a total decrease of 620 yuan per ton for gasoline and 595 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2] - The upcoming price adjustment is expected to shift the pricing pattern to "seven increases, ten decreases, and six unchanged" if the current downward trend continues [2] - OPEC+ is anticipated to continue increasing production in December, while the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts, contributing to a higher likelihood of further price reductions in the next round of adjustments [2]

Group 1: Domestic Oil Price Adjustment - The domestic oil price adjustment is expected to occur on November 24, with a forecasted decrease in oil prices due to a negative change rate of -0.94% in international crude oil prices, leading to a potential drop of approximately 50 yuan per ton, or 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter for gasoline [1][2] - The current downward trend in oil prices has already met the minimum adjustment standard, indicating that gasoline prices, which recently exceeded 7 yuan per liter, are likely to revert to the "6 yuan era" [2] Group 2: International Oil Price Dynamics - The strong performance of the US dollar and changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions have exerted downward pressure on crude oil prices, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 90% to 35% [3] - Light crude oil futures for January delivery fell by $0.94 to $58.06 per barrel, a decrease of 1.59%, while Brent crude oil futures also declined by $0.82 to $62.56 per barrel, down 1.29% [3] Group 3: Regional Gasoline Prices - Gasoline prices vary across regions, with notable prices including: - Northeast: Liaoning 8.19 yuan/liter, Jilin 8.12 yuan/liter, Heilongjiang 8.43 yuan/liter [3] - North China: Beijing 8.89 yuan/liter, Tianjin 8.82 yuan/liter, Hebei 8.14 yuan/liter [4] - East China: Shanghai 9.25 yuan/liter, Jiangsu 9.41 yuan/liter, Zhejiang 9.36 yuan/liter [5] - Central China: Henan 8.67 yuan/liter, Hubei 9.44 yuan/liter, Hunan 8.33 yuan/liter [6] - South China: Guangdong 9.54 yuan/liter, Guangxi 8.82 yuan/liter, Hainan 9.55 yuan/liter [7] - Southwest: Chongqing 8.35 yuan/liter, Sichuan 8.52 yuan/liter, Yunnan 8.29 yuan/liter [8] - Northwest: Shaanxi 9.48 yuan/liter, Gansu 7.97 yuan/liter, Xinjiang 8.05 yuan/liter [9] Group 4: Diesel Prices by Region - Diesel prices also show regional variation, with prices such as: - Northeast: Liaoning 6.49 yuan/liter, Jilin 6.50 yuan/liter, Heilongjiang 6.43 yuan/liter [11] - North China: Beijing 6.62 yuan/liter, Tianjin 6.58 yuan/liter, Hebei 6.58 yuan/liter [11] - East China: Shanghai 6.56 yuan/liter, Jiangsu 6.55 yuan/liter, Zhejiang 6.57 yuan/liter [11] - Central China: Henan 6.56 yuan/liter, Hubei 6.57 yuan/liter, Hunan 6.64 yuan/liter [11] - South China: Guangdong 6.59 yuan/liter, Guangxi 6.64 yuan/liter, Hainan 6.67 yuan/liter [11] - Southwest: Chongqing 6.65 yuan/liter, Sichuan 6.64 yuan/liter, Yunnan 6.66 yuan/liter [11] - Northwest: Shaanxi 6.48 yuan/liter, Gansu 6.49 yuan/liter, Xinjiang 6.36 yuan/liter [11]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment of refined oil prices in China will take effect on November 24, with minor reductions in gasoline and diesel prices due to recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1][4]. Price Adjustment Details - Gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 70 yuan and 65 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to a decrease of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.06 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.06 yuan for 0-octane diesel [1]. - The current retail prices in Jiangsu province are 6.92 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.36 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 6.55 yuan for 0-octane diesel [1]. Market Context - The adjustment reflects a direct correlation with international oil prices, which have recently shown a downward trend due to supply-demand dynamics and negative market sentiment [1][4]. - The current market phase is characterized by a "supply-demand game" with a prevailing bearish outlook [1]. Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for December 8, 2025, with expectations of further price reductions based on current international oil price levels [3]. - Geopolitical tensions may ease, and OPEC+ is likely to continue its production increase, contributing to a higher probability of price reductions in the next adjustment [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that a new round of fuel price adjustments is imminent, with a predicted decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 50 yuan per ton, translating to a drop of approximately 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter [2] - As of now, there have been 22 rounds of price adjustments this year, categorized as "seven increases, nine decreases, and six unchanged." If the upcoming adjustment occurs as expected, the adjustment pattern will shift to "seven increases, ten decreases, and six unchanged" [4] - The current prices of gasoline and diesel have decreased by 620 yuan per ton and 595 yuan per ton, respectively, compared to the end of last year [4] Group 2 - Tips for fuel efficiency include regular vehicle maintenance, which significantly impacts fuel consumption. Ensuring that air filters, spark plugs, and engine conditions are optimal is crucial for achieving satisfactory fuel efficiency [5] - The best times to refuel are early morning or late evening to minimize fuel evaporation caused by high temperatures during the day [6] - It is advised to limit the warm-up time of modern vehicles to under one minute, as prolonged warm-up can lead to unnecessary fuel consumption [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that domestic refined oil retail prices are expected to decrease for the tenth time this year, with predictions of a reduction in gasoline and diesel prices by 70 and 65 yuan per ton respectively [1][2] - As of November 21, the reference crude oil change rate was at -1.50%, reflecting a downward trend in oil prices during the current pricing cycle [1] - The decrease in oil prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a surprising drop in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.4 million barrels and an increase in gasoline and distillate demand, which provides short-term support for oil prices [1] Group 2 - The domestic oil price adjustments this year have seen a total of 22 rounds, with the current trend being "seven increases, nine decreases, and six unchanged" [2] - If the anticipated price reduction occurs, the adjustment pattern will shift to "seven increases, ten decreases, and six unchanged," indicating a significant impact on consumer costs [2] - The expectation of potential peace talks in Eastern Europe may alleviate concerns over oil supply, suggesting that the oil market could face weak performance in the near future [2]