Report Information - Report Type: Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review [1] - Date: June 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Conditions 1.1 Futures Market - On May 30, the main contract J2509 of coking coal futures hit a new low since January 2017 for the September contract, with the decline narrowing. The main contract JM2509 of coking coal futures saw an enlarged decline, hitting a new low since July 2016 for the September contract [5]. - J2509: The previous closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, opening at 1333 yuan/ton, with a high of 1334.5 yuan/ton, a low of 1295.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1308 yuan/ton, down 2.13%. The trading volume was 31,257 lots, and the open interest was 56,074 lots, a decrease of 358 lots, with a capital outflow of 0.36 billion yuan [5]. - JM2509: The previous closing price was 759 yuan/ton, opening at 757 yuan/ton, with a high of 759.5 yuan/ton, a low of 726 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 726 yuan/ton, down 5.28%. The trading volume was 875,062 lots, and the open interest was 552,525 lots, an increase of 12,197 lots, with a capital outflow of 1.08 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On May 30, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1340 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1270 yuan/ton, also unchanged [8]. - The aggregated price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Tangshan was 1275 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze, it was 1320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Pingdingshan, it was 1460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On May 30, the daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to diverge downward. The daily MACD green bars of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to expand slightly, while those of the coking coal 2509 contract expanded further [8]. 3. Outlook 3.1 Coking Coal - In the past 5 weeks, the coking coal production of independent coking plants has slightly declined after hovering near the highest level since early August last year. The coking coal production of steel mills has also slightly declined compared to late April. In the past 6 weeks, the coking coal inventory at ports has significantly decreased, but the de - stocking speed of steel mills is slow, and the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, adding new downward pressure on coking coal prices. The profit per ton of coking coal has been in the red for 2 consecutive weeks, mainly due to two rounds of price cuts for coking coal in mid - and late May, hitting a new low in recent years [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal - From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high, and the overall loose supply pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants first increased and then decreased, and the clean coal inventory rose again to a relatively high level. In the past 6 weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, and the port inventory has also returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the steel mill inventory has increased steadily. With steel mills still having relatively sufficient inventory, if coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. 3.3 Overall - Although the weak market for coking coal and coke futures continues, and there may still be new lows in early June, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a turnaround in the market can occur around early June due to changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10]. 4. Industry News - On May 29, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on improving the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming to improve the carbon market coverage and other aspects by 2027 [11]. - The third - round and fourth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections were launched, targeting 5 provinces and 3 central enterprises [11]. - Zhang Guoqing emphasized safety production at the launch ceremony of the 2025 National "Safety Production Month" [12]. - Sansteel Minguang's production, capacity replacement, fuel procurement, and sales situation were introduced, and it believed that relevant production - restriction policies were reasonable and necessary [12]. - Shanxi Coking Coal International Energy will focus on its main business in 2025 and optimize resource allocation [12]. - Shaanxi Energy's profit decline in the first quarter was due to lower power generation and coal sales prices [12]. - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.75 million tons, showing different changes compared to the previous week, month, and year [13]. - Yitai B - share completed the tender offer for ST Xinchao's controlling stake [13]. - Tongbao Energy will manage its coal inventory according to market conditions [13]. - From January to April 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained its leading position globally, and the industry's boom cycle is expected to continue [13]. - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily suspended the ruling against Trump's tariff measures [14]. - The OECD report pointed out that planned capacity expansion may exacerbate global steel over - capacity [14]. - Clean energy accounted for an increasing proportion of US power generation in March and April [14]. - Turkey's coal imports in April 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [14]. - Bayan Resources' coal sales volume in the first quarter of this year increased significantly, but the average selling price was lower than expected [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron production, the inventory of coking coal and coke at ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coking coal, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventory of coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector index increased by 3.42%, outperforming other sectors, while the public utility sector index decreased by 0.18% [6][18] - The report highlights a significant drop in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal at 620 CNY/ton, a 61.2% decrease from its peak in October 2022 [6][28] - The report recommends companies such as Huadian International and Sheneng Co., while suggesting attention to Zhongmin Energy and Funeng Co. [6] - The report emphasizes the investment value in nuclear and hydropower, recommending Chuan Investment Energy, State Power Investment, Yangtze Power, and China National Nuclear Power [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to promote green electricity direct connection projects, requiring that the self-consumed electricity from renewable sources should not be less than 60% of total available generation by 2030 [10][15] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council released opinions on improving the market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors, aiming for a complete carbon emission rights and water rights trading system by 2027 [15][16] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.79% in 2025, while the power sector has seen a slight decrease of 0.05% [6][18] - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with solid waste management up by 4.83% and comprehensive environmental management up by 8.66% [22] Key Data Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remains at 620 CNY/ton, with significant reductions from previous highs [28] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a current level of 154.63 meters [30] - The price of LNG at the port is reported at 12.03 USD/MMBtu (4501 CNY/ton), a 70.20% decrease from its peak in December 2022 [46] Industry Key Events - The report notes significant developments in the power market, including the issuance of green certificates for renewable energy projects and the establishment of trading rules for green electricity [58] - It also highlights initiatives in the environmental market aimed at enhancing data integration and promoting green development [59]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued an opinion to enhance the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming for a comprehensive trading system for carbon emissions, water rights, and pollution rights by 2027, which will support the achievement of related environmental goals [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Trading - The opinion emphasizes the transition of the national carbon emission trading market from intensity control to total quota control, enhancing the connection between carbon emission rights trading and carbon emission control systems [2]. - The carbon emission trading market currently covers approximately 40% of national CO2 emissions from the power generation sector, and with the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum industries, this coverage will exceed 60% [3]. - The distribution system for carbon emission quotas is identified as fundamental for all trading systems, necessitating improvements in the allocation methods to ensure scientific validity [3]. Group 2: Water Rights and Pollution Rights - The opinion outlines the need for strict dual control of total water usage and intensity, promoting the integration of water rights trading and water resource management systems [2]. - A pollution rights trading system will be established based on pollution permits, which will serve as the basis for rights confirmation and regulatory oversight [2]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Data Sharing - The opinion calls for the integration of carbon emission rights, water rights, and pollution rights trading into a public resource trading platform, facilitating data sharing and enhancing market efficiency [5]. - A reserve adjustment system for resource and environmental factors will be established to manage supply and demand effectively, including mechanisms for quota management [6]. Group 4: Implementation and Evaluation - The National Development and Reform Commission will oversee the implementation of the opinion, ensuring that local and national markets are aligned and that reforms are effectively executed [6].

Group 1 - Emphasis on the importance of high-level innovation talent for achieving technological self-reliance and strength in China [2] - The ongoing development of the private economy shows steady improvement and increased market vitality in the first four months of the year [5] - The software and information technology service industry in China has seen a double-digit growth in revenue and profit in the first four months, with software business revenue reaching 42,582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [13] Group 2 - The U.S. Court of Appeals has reinstated the Trump administration's tariff policies, leading to increased uncertainty in the global economy [20] - A study indicates that U.S. tariff policies have caused over $34 billion in losses for numerous global corporations, impacting sales and increasing costs [21] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter, with corporate profits declining by $118.1 billion, the largest drop since Q4 2020, attributed to tariff-related uncertainties [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued an opinion to deepen the market-oriented allocation reform of resource and environmental factors, aiming for a more active trading market and improved pricing mechanisms by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Resource and Environmental Factor Allocation - The opinion outlines the need to improve the allocation system for resource and environmental factors, emphasizing the integration of carbon emission rights trading with dual control systems for carbon emissions [1]. - It aims to enhance the trading market for resource and environmental factors to support the development of new productive forces while promoting carbon reduction, pollution reduction, greening, and economic growth [1]. Group 2: Optimization of Trading Scope - The opinion proposes to gradually expand the coverage of the national carbon emission rights trading market, considering the needs for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, as well as the carbon reduction potential of various industries [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of avoiding overlapping benefits for trading entities between green certificates and voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading markets [2]. Group 3: Trading System Improvement - The opinion suggests a systematic inclusion of carbon emission rights, water rights, and pollution rights into public resource trading platforms based on the progress of market-oriented allocation reforms [2]. - It calls for the strengthening of guidance and supervision over local carbon emission rights trading markets while accelerating the establishment of a unified national water rights trading market [2]. Group 4: Capacity Building for Trading - The opinion encourages financial institutions to participate in the construction of resource and environmental factor trading markets, promoting the development of green financial products such as green credit, green insurance, and green bonds [3]. - It also highlights the need for standardized disclosure of information related to green finance by financial institutions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued an opinion to enhance the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming for a comprehensive trading system for carbon emissions, water rights, and pollution discharge by 2027 [1][5]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Trading - The opinion emphasizes the need to strengthen the connection between carbon emission trading and dual control systems, transitioning from intensity control to total quota control [2]. - The carbon emission trading market currently covers approximately 40% of national CO2 emissions from the power generation sector, and with the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum industries, this coverage will exceed 60% [3]. - The distribution system for carbon emission quotas will be optimized, gradually increasing the proportion of paid distribution [3]. Group 2: Water Rights and Pollution Discharge - The opinion outlines the establishment of a trading system for water rights and pollution discharge, integrating various management systems such as water resource scheduling and pollution permits [2]. - The aim is to create a unified national water rights trading market while avoiding the establishment of new local or regional carbon trading markets [5]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Investment - The establishment of market-based trading systems for carbon emissions, water rights, and pollution discharge is crucial for achieving China's dual carbon goals and improving ecological environments [4]. - The investment required for these initiatives is substantial, and market mechanisms will help identify cost-effective solutions while mobilizing societal participation [4]. Group 4: Implementation and Evaluation - The government will focus on task implementation, ensuring that local departments align with the main objectives and reform measures [6]. - Continuous assessment and analysis of the progress in resource and environmental factor marketization will be conducted to adapt to new challenges [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming to enhance the efficiency of resource utilization and support green transformation by 2027 [1][3]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The initiative is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to create a clear, efficient, and collaborative market system for resource and environmental factors, promoting carbon reduction, pollution control, and green growth [4]. - By 2027, the trading systems for carbon emissions rights, water rights, and pollution rights are expected to be fundamentally improved, with a more active trading market and a sounder price formation mechanism [4]. Group 2: Improving Allocation Systems - The article outlines the need to strengthen the connection between carbon emissions trading and dual control systems, ensuring a transition from intensity control to total quota control [5]. - It suggests optimizing the distribution of carbon emission quotas and implementing a combination of free and paid allocation methods, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations [5]. Group 3: Optimizing Trading Scope - The carbon market's coverage will be expanded to include more industries and trading entities, enhancing the variety of trading products and methods [6]. - The article advocates for the development of a market for water rights, particularly in key river basins, and encourages the participation of social capital in water-saving projects [7]. Group 4: Establishing Trading Systems - The article proposes integrating carbon emissions rights, water rights, and pollution rights into a public resource trading platform, facilitating data sharing and improving market oversight [8]. - It emphasizes the need for robust trading rules, including the establishment of systems for rights confirmation, registration, and transaction management [9]. Group 5: Strengthening Trading Capacity - The article highlights the importance of enhancing legal standards and monitoring capabilities for carbon emissions, water usage, and pollution discharge [10]. - It calls for the development of a financial support system to encourage financial institutions to participate in the resource and environmental factor trading market [10][11]. Group 6: Implementation and Organization - The article stresses the need for coordinated efforts among various departments to implement the proposed reforms effectively, with regular evaluations of progress and challenges [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Market-oriented Allocation System for Resource and Environmental Factors" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, aiming to deepen the reform of market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors, with specific goals set for 2027 [1][4]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The overall goal is to establish a market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, enhancing efficiency and supporting green transformation in economic and social development [5]. - By 2027, the trading systems for carbon emissions rights, water rights, and pollution discharge rights are expected to be fundamentally improved, with a more active trading market and a sounder price formation mechanism [5]. Group 2: Improvement of Allocation System - The opinions emphasize the need to strengthen the connection between carbon emissions trading and dual control systems, transitioning from intensity control to total quota control for carbon emissions [6]. - It also highlights the importance of strict dual control over total water usage and intensity, promoting the integration of various water management systems [6][7]. Group 3: Optimization of Trading Scope - The article outlines plans to gradually expand the coverage of the national carbon emissions trading market, including increasing the variety of trading subjects and methods [8]. - It encourages the exploration of water rights trading in key river basins and supports social capital participation in water-saving projects [9]. Group 4: Establishment of Trading Systems - The opinions call for the integration of carbon emissions rights, water rights, and pollution discharge rights into public resource trading platforms, ensuring data sharing and management [10]. - It stresses the need for robust trading rules, including the establishment of systems for rights confirmation, registration, and transaction management [11]. Group 5: Strengthening Basic Capabilities - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing monitoring and accounting capabilities for carbon emissions, water usage, and pollutant discharge [13]. - It also highlights the need for a sound financial support system to facilitate the development of green financial products related to resource and environmental factors [14].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the Chinese government's efforts to strengthen the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, emphasizing strict control over water usage and pollution discharge [1] Group 1: Water Resource Management - The government is implementing strict dual controls on total water usage and water usage intensity, promoting the integration of water rights trading, river water allocation, water resource scheduling, water extraction licensing management, planned water management, and water extraction supervision [1] Group 2: Pollution Control - There is a focus on enhancing the connection between pollution discharge rights and pollution discharge permits, aiming to establish a pollution discharge rights trading system based on pollution discharge permits as the proof of rights and regulatory vehicle [1] Group 3: Carbon Emission Management - The document emphasizes the need to strengthen the connection between carbon emission rights trading and the dual control system of carbon emissions, promoting a gradual shift of the national carbon emission trading market from intensity control to total quota control [1]

21世纪经济报道记者雷椰 实习生刘宇博 北京报道 保护生态环境需要依靠制度、依靠法治。如何切实在法治轨道上全面推进美丽中国建设？ 5月27日，在生态环境部5月例行新闻发布会上，生态环境部法规与标准司司长赵柯表示，生态环境部在立法方面取得重大突破，开启了生态环 境法治的新阶段。全国人大常委会第十五次会议已经初步审议生态环境法典草案。《碳排放权交易管理暂行条例》成为我国应对气候变化领域 的第一部行政法规。同时生态环境部正在推进出台生态环境监测条例。 生态环境法典正在编织制度网络，与此同时，中央生态环保督察利剑直指政企责任落实痛点。生态环境部新闻发言人裴晓菲在生态环境部例行 新闻发布会上介绍，第三轮第四批督察同步覆盖山西、内蒙古、山东、陕西、宁夏5省（区）区与中国华能集团有限公司、中国大唐集团有限 公司、国家电力投资集团有限公司3家央企。 （图源：生态环境部官微） 生态环境法治建设进入新阶段 生态环境保护是社会治理的重要领域，需要发挥好法治的规范和保障作用。 赵柯表示，生态环境领域的立法工作取得了非常显著的成效，相关法律30多部，占现行法律总数的1/10。行政法规100多件，地方性法规1000 多件。这一生态环境法 ...