Economic Growth - Chengdu's industrial added value for the first four months of the year increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with collective enterprises growing by 24.9% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.0% [1] - Among 37 major industries, 25 reported growth, with the automotive manufacturing sector growing by 27.4%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing by 18.8%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 11.8% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Chengdu (excluding rural households) rose by 7.9% year-on-year, with private investment increasing by 10.6% [1] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 16.6%, while the secondary industry saw a significant increase of 72.8%, with industrial investment specifically rising by 74.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Chengdu reached 364.46 billion yuan, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase [1] - Urban retail sales amounted to 320.46 billion yuan, growing by 6.1%, while rural retail sales reached 44 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.4% [1] Consumption Breakdown - Restaurant revenue was 44.93 billion yuan, up by 4.5%, while commodity retail sales were 319.53 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4% [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included telecommunications equipment at 125.0%, gold and silver jewelry at 19.7%, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment at 19.1% [2] Foreign Trade - Chengdu's total foreign trade import and export volume reached 275.98 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase [2] - Exports totaled 161.08 billion yuan, growing by 11.9%, while imports were 114.9 billion yuan, increasing by 10.1% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy in April maintained resilience, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [1][3] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping, and after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate again in the short - to - medium term [3] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain [3] - The prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate horizontally on Thursday, and the short - term of treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated slightly downward in the morning session, and showed horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.57% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.26 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.02 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 0.86 BP to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 BP to 1.89% [1] - Eurozone: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49.0); the preliminary value of the service PMI in May was 48.9, the lowest level since January 2024 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1) [1] - US: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.8) [1] Market Logic - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation 4.3%, 4.2% from January to March). In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation 5.5%, 5.9% in March). In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms (market expectation 5.2%, 6.5% year - on - year in the first quarter) [1] - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market forecast 2.0%, 12.4% in March). In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (11.55% in March), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% year - on - year (9.09% in March). Due to the impact of tariffs, China's exports to the US decreased significantly in April, while exports to ASEAN accelerated, possibly due to re - export factors [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - oriented investments, conduct band operations. [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][43] Core Viewpoints - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with furniture and home appliances showing rapid growth [4][5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April reached 37,174 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 33,548 billion, growing by 5.6% [4][5] - Urban and rural retail sales in April were 32,376 billion and 4,798 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.2% and 4.7% [4][5] Summary by Category Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April was 37,174 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 33,548 billion, with a growth of 5.6% [4][5] Essential Consumption - Essential consumption showed steady growth. The retail sales of essential goods such as grain and oil increased by 14.0%, beverages by 2.9%, tobacco and alcohol by 4.0%, and daily necessities by 7.6% [16][22] Optional Consumption - In optional consumption, gold, silver, jewelry, and communication equipment saw rapid growth. Retail sales for gold and silver jewelry increased by 25.3%, and communication equipment by 19.9% [22][32] Other Consumer Goods - In other consumer categories, furniture and home appliances showed significant growth. Retail sales for furniture increased by 26.9%, and home appliances by 38.8%. Building materials grew by 9.7%, while petroleum and products decreased by 5.7% [32][33]

Economic Growth - Sichuan province's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to April, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.7% [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 928.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, also exceeding the national average by 0.6% [2] Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 35 reported growth in added value [2] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a significant increase of 22.3% year-on-year [2] - Chemical raw materials and products manufacturing grew by 20.0% [2] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector increased by 15.0% [2] - Black metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 14.9% [2] - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 10.6% [2] Industrial Product Output - Natural gas production increased by 9.4% year-on-year [2] - Power generation grew by 4.1% [2] - Smart watch production surged by 92.7% [2] - Generator sets production increased by 73.1% [2] - Lithium-ion battery output rose by 66.7% [2] - Automobile production grew by 35.6% [2] - Industrial boiler output increased by 28.3% [2] - Integrated circuit production rose by 15.7% [2] - Color television production increased by 14.9% [2] - Smartphone production grew by 12.4% [2] Investment Trends - The product sales rate for industrial enterprises above designated size was 94.6% [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.2% year-on-year [3] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 20.5% [3] - Investment in the secondary industry increased by 15.7%, with industrial investment rising by 15.9% [3] - Investment in the tertiary industry declined by 2.6% [3] Real Estate Development - Real estate development investment decreased by 6.8% year-on-year [4] - The construction area of commercial housing fell by 12.6% [4] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing declined by 7.4% [4] Consumer Spending - Restaurant revenue reached 130.32 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% year-on-year [4] - Retail sales of goods amounted to 798.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [4] - E-commerce sales from above-designated size enterprises reached 67.14 billion yuan, increasing by 27.1% [4] Hot Product Categories - Retail sales of communication equipment from above-designated size enterprises surged by 79.2% [4] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 16.4% [4] - Retail sales of grain, oil, and food increased by 13.0% [4] - Beverage retail sales rose by 12.7% [4] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies grew by 10.5% [4]

本文全文共 2605 字，阅读全文约 8 分钟 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 2025年1—4月份全国固定资产投资增长4.0% 2025年4月份规模以上工业增加值增长6.1% 2025年4月份能源生产情况 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 4月份，社会消费品零售总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额33548亿元，增长5.6% 。1—4月份，社会消费品零售总额161845亿 元，增长4.7%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额147005亿元，增长5.2% 。 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 按经营单位所在地分，4月份，城镇消费品零售额32376亿元，同比增长5.2%；乡村消费品零售额4798亿元，增长4.7%。1—4月份，城镇消费品零售额140433亿 元，增长4.7%；乡村消费品零售额21412亿元，增长4.8%。 按消费类型分，4月份，商品零售额33007亿元，同比增长5.1%；餐饮收入4167亿元，增长5.2%。1—4月份，商品零售额143651亿元，增长4.7%；餐饮收入 18194亿元，增长4.8%。 按零售业态分，1—4月份，限额以上 ...

Group 1: Industrial Growth - Sichuan's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to April, with state-owned enterprises growing by 8.1% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.4% [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 experienced growth, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.3%), chemical raw materials and products (20.0%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (15.0%) [1] - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (9.4%), electricity generation (4.1%), and significant growth in smartwatches (92.7%), generators (73.1%), and lithium-ion batteries (66.7%) [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Sichuan grew by 3.2% year-on-year from January to April, with the primary industry seeing a 20.5% increase and the secondary industry growing by 15.7% [1] - Industrial investment specifically rose by 15.9% during the same period [1] Group 3: Consumer Retail - Sichuan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 928.59 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% year-on-year increase [2] - Urban retail sales accounted for 753.51 billion yuan (5.2% growth), while rural retail sales were 175.07 billion yuan (5.9% growth) [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included communication equipment (79.2%), household appliances (16.4%), and food products (13.0%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Macro and Financial - Treasury Bonds: Bullish (Slightly) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On May 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics released April's major macro - economic data. Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable, with fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks on May 12th, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. The 90 - day window period brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain. On Monday, treasury bond futures rose overall, and the news that state - owned banks will cut deposit rates is favorable for the bulls. Treasury bond futures may be bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2506 rose 0.37%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2506 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 43 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 92 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.54% (1.63% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average was 1.60% (1.64% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 1.04 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year fell 0.98 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year rose 1.00 BP to 1.69%, and the 30 - year fell 1.70 BP to 1.86% [1] - **Housing Market**: In April, the month - on - month price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% (from a 0.2% increase last month). Among them, Shanghai rose 0.1%, Guangzhou remained flat, and Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Second - and third - tier cities' second - hand residential property prices decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared to last month [1] - **Investment Data**: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation: 4.26%, 4.2% from January to March). General infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% (market expectation: 10.0%, 11.5% from January to March, 9.19% in 2024). Narrow infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% (5.8% from January to March, 4.4% in 2024). Manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% (market expectation: 9.1%, 9.1% from January to March, 9.2% in 2024). Real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% (9.9% from January to March, 10.6% in 2024) [1] - **Sales Data**: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year (3.0% from January to March), and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% (2.1% from January to March) [2] - **Industrial Data**: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.2%, 6.5% in the first quarter, 5.8% in 2024). Manufacturing added value increased by 6.6% (7.1% in the first quarter, 6.1% in 2024). High - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% (slightly lower than 10.7% in March, higher than 8.9% in 2024) [2] - **Consumption and Employment Data**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, 5.9% in March). The national service production index increased by 6.0% (6.3% in March). The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [2] - **Interest Rate Adjustment**: It is reported that many state - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks will lower the listed RMB deposit interest rates again starting from May 20th [2] 3.3 Market Logic - Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable. Fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the 90 - day window period brought short - term relief, but long - term uncertainties remain. The release of April's macro - economic data on Monday led to an overall rise in treasury bond futures, and the news of the deposit rate cut is favorable for the bulls, making treasury bond futures likely to be bullish in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - In April, China's national economy showed stable growth in production and demand, with a generally stable employment situation and the emergence of new growth drivers, indicating a resilient economic performance under pressure [1][2] - The industrial production saw a rapid increase, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 6.1% year-on-year in April. Notably, the equipment manufacturing sector and high-tech manufacturing sector grew by 9.8% and 10.0% respectively [1] - The production of specific products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 51.5%, and 38.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - Market sales experienced stable growth, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown positive effects [1] - The retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, and 26.9% respectively [1] - Fixed asset investment continued to expand, with a total of 147,024 billion yuan in investment (excluding rural households) in the first four months, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate was 8.0% [1] Group 3 - The total value of goods import and export reached 38,391 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Exports alone amounted to 22,645 billion yuan, growing by 9.3% [1] - In the first four months, the total value of goods import and export was 141,389 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 社零数据点评 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1172.3 | 1.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1076.2 | 1.4 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.1 | 28.9 | 27.5 | | 相对表现 | 10.2 | 31.3 | 21.5 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《商贸社服行业周报—京东外卖 上线百亿补贴，京东盒马等企业助力 出口转内销》2025-04-14 4 月社零同比+5.1%，国补品类保持增速领先 消费品/商业 2025 年 4 月社会消费品零售总额为 37174 亿元，当月同比+5.1%；实物商品网 上零售额当月为 9317 亿元，当月同比+6.1%。4 月社零及电商大盘维持相对稳 健增长，国补品类增速保持领先。当前内需有望发力，若刺激消费政策出台消 费互联网龙头将显著受 ...

大陆消费月报： 社会零售维持较快增长 群益上海 顾向君 2025.5.19 0 一、宏观消费运行概述 ➢社会消费品零售总额：5月零售保持较快增长 ➢出行情况：出行热情持续高涨 二、消费行业运行概述 ➢票房：五一票房惨淡，市场观望后续行情 ➢CPI：食品价格反弹冲销燃油价格下跌影响 ➢生产资料价格走势：生产资料价格低迷，关税影响消除 ➢期间板块涨跌情况：板块偏强运行 ➢行业观点：五月假日效应及电商大促共振，零售增速有望保持高位 1 社零保持较快增长 图1：社会消费品零售总额单月变动 单位：亿元，% 图2：零售分项单月同比变动 单位：% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000 75,000 85,000 95,000 2024 年1-2月 2024 年3月 2024 年 4 月 2024 年5月 2024 年6月 2024 年7月 2024 年8月 2024 年9月 2024 年10 月 2024 年11 月 2024 年12 月 2025 年1-2月 2025 年3月 2025 ...