Core Insights - Shenzhen's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 494.868 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] Consumption Breakdown - Retail sales of goods increased by 3.6%, while catering revenue grew by 1.7% [1] - Basic living goods showed strong growth, with retail sales of daily necessities and grain and food categories increasing by 10.7% and 9.1% respectively [1] Policy Impact - The "old for new" consumption policy continued to show effectiveness, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 55.7%, 32.9%, and 6.0% respectively [1] E-commerce Growth - Online retail sales continued to grow, with retail sales through the internet for above-limit units increasing by 19.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou's consumer market shows resilience in the first half of the year, driven by policy support and new business models, achieving a retail sales total of 561.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, which is 2.4 percentage points higher than the first quarter [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7.1%, while communication equipment saw a rise of 15.0% [1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment experienced a significant growth of 27.6%, and furniture sales surged by 3.3 times due to strong demand in subsidized categories [1] - Sports and entertainment goods grew by 33.0%, and cultural and office supplies increased by 50.7%, with electronic publications and audio-visual products doubling in sales [1] Group 2: Online Shopping Trends - Online retail sales of physical goods in the wholesale and retail sector rose by 16.4%, while accommodation and catering businesses saw a 10.9% increase in revenue through public networks [1] Group 3: Quality Goods Sales - Sales of quality goods such as gold, silver, jewelry, and cosmetics remained stable, with retail sales increasing by 16.3% and 3.7% respectively [1]

Group 1: Current Characteristics of Social Retail Growth - Social group consumption is slowly recovering, but resident consumption remains dominant, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to 2.5% for social group consumption in Q2 2025[5] - The gap in growth rates between resident and social group consumption has narrowed from 4.2 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points in the first half of the year[5] - Social retail growth is primarily driven by commodity consumption, with commodity retail growth rising from 4.6% to 5.1% in Q2 2025, while catering retail has declined[7] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Policy Impact - Consumer sentiment is recovering, supported by stable employment, with the urban unemployment rate decreasing from 5.2% to 5.0% in Q2 2025[11] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a positive impact on consumer willingness across various categories[12] - The remaining central funds for the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year are estimated to generate 1.4 trillion yuan in sales, comparable to last year's 1.3 trillion yuan[18] Group 3: Outlook and Risks - The growth rate of social retail may slow in the second half of the year, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the resilience of resident consumption against stricter regulations on social group dining[17] - The central government's funding for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be distributed evenly, with 1,620 billion yuan allocated in the first half and 1,380 billion yuan planned for the second half[17] - Risks include slow recovery of consumer confidence and potential delays in policy implementation[24]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, Jilin Province's GDP reached 682.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The industrial sector showed steady progress, with the added value of above-scale industries growing by 7.8%, surpassing the national average by 1.4 percentage points [1] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors saw an overall growth, with an added value of 37.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Specific growth rates for major agricultural products included 7.0% for crops, 10.2% for forestry, 3.6% for animal husbandry, and 9.6% for fisheries [1] Industrial Sector - The equipment manufacturing industry experienced a significant increase, with an added value growth of 19.5%, accounting for 10.9% of the province's above-scale industrial output [2] - Key industries such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, and electricity production achieved double-digit growth rates of 21.5%, 16.8%, and 10.3% respectively [1] Service Sector - The service sector's added value grew by 5.6%, contributing 63.8% to the province's GDP, with a contribution rate increase of 11.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors saw a growth of 7.2%, while scientific research and technical services grew by 13.0% [2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.0%, with the second industry investment rising by 8.8% and the third industry by 1.9% [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 211.72 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with significant increases in furniture and home appliances retail sales [3]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Huizhou reached 291.006 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 13.262 billion yuan, growing by 4.1%; the secondary industry added value was 153.687 billion yuan, growing by 7.7%; and the tertiary industry added value was 124.057 billion yuan, growing by 2.3% [2] Agricultural Sector - Agricultural production showed stable growth, with the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 23.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [2] - Key agricultural products saw stable production, with vegetable and edible fungus output increasing by 4.0%, fruit output by 10.1%, and tea output by 7.3% [2] - Pork and poultry production declined, with pork output at 57,200 tons (down 5.5%) and poultry output at 41,800 tons (down 4.4%) [2] Industrial Sector - Industrial production experienced rapid growth, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 11.2% [3] - The electronics industry grew by 15.7%, while the petrochemical, energy, and new materials sectors grew by 5.4% [3] - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing added value increased by 11.2% and 15.3%, respectively, accounting for 61.8% and 42.5% of the total industrial added value [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 17.9% in the first half of the year, with manufacturing down 9.3% and real estate development down 26.9% [3] - Investment in cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors surged by 87.8%, while information transmission and software services grew by 11% [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 103.865 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [4] - Urban retail sales increased by 5.7%, while rural retail sales grew by 4.7% [4] - Online retail sales surged by 49.0%, indicating strong potential in e-commerce [4] Foreign Trade - The total import and export volume reached 197.988 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [4] - Exports totaled 111.109 billion yuan (up 6.8%), while imports reached 86.879 billion yuan (up 6.9%) [4] Fiscal and Financial Sector - The general public budget revenue was 25.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [5] - The balance of financial institutions' deposits was 981.079 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% [5] - The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.7%, indicating stable consumer prices [5] Income Trends - Per capita disposable income reached 26,731 yuan, growing by 4.8% [5] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income was 30,042 yuan (up 4.4%), while rural residents' was 17,503 yuan (up 6.2%) [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, but they declined in the morning and accelerated the decline in the afternoon, closing at a low level. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, with a decline in the morning and an accelerated decline in the afternoon. The 30 - year (TL2509), 10 - year (T2509), 5 - year (TF2509), and 2 - year (TS2509) treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [1] - Capital market: The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] Market Logic - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Zhaoqing City reached 135.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 17.5 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%; the secondary industry added value was 53.6 billion yuan, growing by 4.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 64.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% [2] Agricultural Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors achieved a total output value of 30.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - Specific growth rates included planting (4.2%), forestry (6.5%), animal husbandry (4.8%), fishery (6.4%), and auxiliary activities (10.9%) [2] - Vegetable production reached 1.446 million tons, increasing by 3.1%; live pig output was 1.746 million heads, up by 7.1%; and total aquatic products amounted to 270,400 tons, growing by 4.4% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.5% year-on-year [3] - Manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries both grew by 4.6%, while mining decreased by 19.0% [3] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included electrical machinery (21.8%), automotive (20.2%), and computer and electronic equipment (15.6%) [3] - Newly established industrial enterprises showed remarkable performance with a 116.9% increase in added value, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall industrial growth [3] - Advanced manufacturing increased by 17.6%, accounting for 39.0% of the industrial added value [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 60.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [4] - Retail sales of goods were 57.3 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, while catering revenue was 3.52 billion yuan, increasing by 2.0% [4] - Urban retail sales were 48.0 billion yuan, up by 2.8%, and rural retail sales were 12.8 billion yuan, also growing by 2.8% [4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, with increases of 152.6% and 77.3% respectively [4] - Online retail sales through public networks reached 12.3 billion yuan, growing by 10.9% [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 8.8% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment, however, grew by 10.0%, while construction and industrial investments fell by 1.2% and 11.8% respectively [4] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 39.2%, with commercial housing sales area dropping by 37.9% [5] Financial Sector - By the end of June, the total balance of deposits was 411.4 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the total balance of loans was 361.6 billion yuan, growing by 7.6% [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with food prices down by 0.5% and non-food prices down by 0.8% [5]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's consumer market remains the second largest globally, with the total retail sales of consumer goods expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] Group 1: Economic Contribution - Consumption contributes approximately 60% to economic growth on average annually, indicating a significant role in supporting high-quality economic development in China [1]

Economic Performance - The GDP of Hunan Province reached 26,166.50 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points faster than the first quarter [1] - The primary industry added value was 1,759.68 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% [1] - The secondary industry added value was 9,307.50 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 15,099.32 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [1] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the province amounted to 10,391.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, which is 0.6 percentage points faster than the first quarter [1] - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 2.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to increase from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1] Group 1 - In comparison to the United States, China's total retail sales last year were approximately 80% of the U.S. figure in absolute terms [1] - When adjusted for purchasing power parity, China's retail sales are equivalent to 1.6 times that of the United States, based on data and calculations provided by the World Bank [1]