Core Insights - Yunnan Province's retail sales of consumer goods reached 953.769 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Urban areas achieved retail sales of 788.952 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% [1] - Rural areas reported retail sales of 164.816 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5%, outpacing urban growth by 0.8 percentage points [1] Group 2: Consumption Types - Total commodity retail sales amounted to 814.332 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.5% [1] - Dining revenue reached 139.437 billion yuan, showing a growth of 5.6% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the improvement in economic activity this week is primarily observed in the midstream manufacturing and information technology sectors [1] - In the upstream resource sector, prices of industrial metals have mostly increased [1] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, prices in the new energy supply chain have generally risen, with major companies in construction machinery showing a year-on-year improvement in sales for September [1] Group 2 - In the information technology sector, prices of memory chips continue to rise, and the revenue of Taiwanese stocks has generally improved in September, with a significant year-on-year increase in integrated circuit production [1] - In the consumer services sector, the year-on-year decline in rolling retail sales for home appliances has narrowed for air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and color TVs [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in September has narrowed, potentially due to a high base effect and diminishing returns from policy measures [1] Group 3 - Recommended sectors with high or improving economic activity include automotive, batteries, construction machinery, specialized equipment, memory chips, IC manufacturing, PCB, and beauty care [1]

Group 1: Overall Economic Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in September narrowed further, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and diminishing effects of consumption expansion policies [2][20] - In the first nine months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down by 0.1 percentage points [12] - The retail sales growth in first-tier cities remains a major drag, with a year-on-year decline of 3.9% in August, continuing a nine-month negative trend [12][20] Group 2: Consumer Demand Insights - Essential consumption categories generally improved, with staple food demand remaining stable, clothing and textile products showing increased growth, and alcoholic beverages turning positive [20][21] - The new product cycle has started, leading to an increase in the year-on-year growth of communication equipment, while the "trade-in" policy effects are diminishing, causing a slowdown in home appliances and furniture [20][21] - Online retail sales growth outpaced overall retail sales, indicating strong new consumer demand, particularly in cosmetics and traditional Chinese medicine categories [20][21] Group 3: Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index all showed upward trends this week [6] - The price of DDR5 DRAM memory increased month-on-month, while the production of integrated circuits saw a year-on-year growth expansion [6][7] - The revenue of Taiwanese LED chip manufacturers saw a larger year-on-year decline, while MLCC manufacturers experienced a year-on-year revenue increase [6][7] Group 4: Midstream Manufacturing Sector - Prices in the new energy supply chain generally increased, and major companies in engineering machinery saw improved year-on-year sales in September [6][7] - The production of industrial robots showed a rolling three-month year-on-year growth decline, while the production of metal cutting machine tools increased [6][7] - The nationwide solar cell production saw a rolling three-month year-on-year growth decline [6][7] Group 5: Resource Products Tracking - The transaction volume of construction steel showed a ten-day average decline, while rebar prices decreased [8] - The price of coal at Qinhuangdao and the main coking coal at Jingtang Port increased, with coking coal inventory rising at Tianjin Port [8] - The Brent crude oil price decreased, while the prices of most chemical products declined [8]

Economic Growth - Shanghai's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 40,721.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, surpassing the national average by 0.3 percentage points [1][2] - The primary industry added value was 64.26 billion yuan, growing by 0.9%; the secondary industry added value was 8,448.67 billion yuan, growing by 3.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 32,208.24 billion yuan, growing by 5.9% [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value in Shanghai increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the total output value of above-scale industries growing by 5.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The three leading industries in manufacturing saw an output value growth of 8.5%, outpacing the overall growth of above-scale industrial output value by 2.8 percentage points [1] Tertiary Sector Insights - The tertiary sector's added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the information transmission, software, and IT services sector, which saw a 15.5% increase in added value [1] - The financial sector's added value reached 6,965.27 billion yuan, growing by 9.8%, while transportation, storage, and postal services increased by 5.2% [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Shanghai increased by 6.0% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 12,302.77 billion yuan, growing by 4.3%, with an acceleration of 2.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - The average urban survey unemployment rate in Shanghai was 4.2% [2] Financial Market and Budget - The transaction volume in major financial markets in Shanghai grew by 12.7% year-on-year [2] - Local general public budget revenue was 6,555.68 billion yuan, a 1.0% increase, while expenditures rose by 8.0% to 6,876.39 billion yuan [2]

Core Insights - Beijing's total market consumption increased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1] - Retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry surged by 33.5% within the wholesale and retail sector [1] Economic Performance - The service consumption sector showed robust performance, with a growth of 4.8% driven by information, transportation, and cultural entertainment [1] - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 980.31 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.1% [1] Sector Analysis - Within the total retail sales, commodity retail accounted for 879.31 billion yuan, down by 5.3%, while catering revenue was 101 billion yuan, decreasing by 3.7% [1] - Sales of upgraded goods remained strong, with basic living and fashion goods performing well; retail sales for grain and oil food, daily necessities, gold and silver jewelry, and cosmetics grew by 8.2%, 3.7%, 33.5%, and 8.1% respectively [1] - Conversely, retail sales for automobiles and communication equipment fell by 18.3% and 24.2% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][47] Core Viewpoints - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, reaching 41,971 billion yuan. Excluding automobiles, the total retail sales amounted to 37,260 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [5][6] - The growth rate of furniture retail sales is notably high, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2% for furniture, while other categories such as household appliances and building materials showed varied performance [33][6] - Essential consumer goods like daily necessities and food saw significant growth, with food retail sales increasing by 6.3% and daily necessities by 6.8% year-on-year [18][24] - In the optional consumption category, communication equipment and gold and silver jewelry experienced strong growth, with retail sales increasing by 16.2% and 9.7% respectively [23][31] Summary by Sections Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 41,971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%. Urban and rural retail sales were 35,783 billion yuan and 6,188 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% and 4.0% respectively [5][6] Retail Sales by Type - The retail sales of limited enterprises in September were 17,776 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The breakdown shows that retail sales of goods and catering revenue totaled 16,429 billion yuan and 1,347 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% and declining by 1.6% respectively [12][6] Essential Consumption - In essential consumption, the retail sales of food increased by 6.3%, daily necessities by 6.8%, while beverages saw a decline of 0.8% [18][24] Optional Consumption - In optional consumption, the retail sales of communication equipment grew by 16.2%, cosmetics by 8.6%, and clothing by 4.7% [23][31] Other Consumer Categories - The retail sales of furniture showed a significant increase of 16.2%, while household appliances grew by 3.3%. However, building materials and petroleum products experienced declines of 0.1% and 7.1% respectively [33][36]

Industrial Capacity Utilization - The national industrial capacity utilization rate for Q3 2025 is 74.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from Q2, but a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - By sector, mining industry capacity utilization is at 72.5%, manufacturing at 74.8%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply at 74.3% [3] Industrial Value Added - In September 2025, the industrial value added for large-scale industries grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.64% [10] - For the first nine months of 2025, the industrial value added increased by 6.2% year-on-year [10] - The mining sector saw a 6.4% increase, manufacturing grew by 7.3%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector grew by 0.6% in September [10] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to September 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 371,535 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [15] - The investment in the primary industry increased by 4.6%, while the secondary industry saw a growth of 6.3%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 4.3% [15] - Industrial investment in the secondary industry grew by 6.4%, with mining investment up by 3.7% and manufacturing investment up by 4.0% [15] Retail Sales - In September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,971 billion yuan, growing by 3.0% year-on-year [5][8] - For the first nine months, retail sales totaled 365,877 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% [5] - Online retail sales for the first nine months reached 112,830 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - On October 20, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.5%, IH by 0.3%, IC by 0.73%, and IM by 0.47%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on this trading day, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603 rose, while IF2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 57144 lots, and the total positions decreased by 8343 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IF2512 having a multi - order net change of - 8401 and a short - order net change of - 7350 [2][3][6] - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, IH2606 rose. The total trading volume decreased by 36593 lots, and the total positions decreased by 8030 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IH2512 having a multi - order net change of - 6902 and a short - order net change of - 6989 [2][3][6] - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603 rose, while IC2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 37567 lots, and the total positions decreased by 3371 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IC2512 having a multi - order net change of - 7960 and a short - order net change of - 8101 [2][3][6] - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603 rose, while IM2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 62630 lots, and the total positions decreased by 9885 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IM2512 having a multi - order net change of - 15080 and a short - order net change of - 16587 [2][3][6] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] 3. Important Drivers - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started in Beijing on the morning of October 20. Sino - US negotiations are about to resume. The GDP in the first three quarters of China increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. A - share trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan, the lowest since August 8 [9]

Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China from January to September 2025 increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a growth of 3% in September [1][2] - The growth rates for tobacco and alcohol consumption from 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 2.3%, 10.6%, and 5.5% respectively [2] - Urban retail sales in September reached 35,783 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 6,188 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0% [2] Retail Performance - In the first nine months, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 316,838 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4% for urban areas and 49,039 billion yuan for rural areas, with a growth of 4.6% [2] - In September, the retail sales of goods were 37,462 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the catering revenue was 4,509 billion yuan, growing by 0.9% [2] Retail Formats - From January to September, the retail sales growth rates for various retail formats were as follows: convenience stores at 6.4%, supermarkets at 4.4%, department stores at 0.9%, specialty stores at 4.8%, and brand exclusive stores at 1.5% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, a series of important economic data were released. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Although there are favorable conditions to achieve the annual target, there are also short - board issues such as slowdown in consumer spending growth, continued decline in real estate prices and volume, and further expansion of the decline in fixed - asset investment. It is expected that the possibility of introducing specific stimulus policies in 2025 is relatively small [6]. - For pure benzene, the fundamental drive is still downward, but the valuation is low. Short - term sanctions affect supply in central China, but overall supply is rising. Port inventories are decreasing smoothly in October, but the actual inventory is moderately high. The downstream demand for styrene is in a negative feedback channel, and short - term short positions should pay attention to taking profits [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - GDP: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters [6]. - Consumption: In September, China's social consumer goods retail sales grew 3% year - on - year, and the catering revenue of above - quota units declined 1.6%. The quarterly growth rate of residents' consumption expenditure slowed down significantly [6]. - Industry: In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% year - on - year, with better growth in equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing [6]. - Investment: From January to September, China's national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Continues to hit new highs, with a trend strength of 1 [11][17]. - Silver: The spot contradiction is alleviated, and the price rises and then falls, with a trend strength of - 1 [11][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: The reduction in warehouse receipts and inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 1 [11][21]. - Zinc: Shows a slight rebound, with a trend strength of 0 [11][24]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [11][26]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend strength of 0 [11][31]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina continues to be in surplus, with a trend strength of - 1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [11][33]. 3.2.3 Energy Metals - Nickel: Narrowly fluctuates in the short - term, and contradictions are still accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, and cost limits the downward space, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Carbonate lithium: The spot is in short supply, and the strong - side oscillation is expected to continue, with a trend strength of 1 [11][40]. 3.2.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are removed in the short - term, with a trend strength of 1 [11][44]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment declines, with a trend strength of 0 [11][44]. 3.2.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][48]. - Rebar: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. 3.2.6 Energy Chemicals - Coke: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. - Coking coal: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. 3.2.7 Others - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [14][64]. - Pure benzene: Fluctuates mainly in the short - term [14][63].