Core Viewpoint - The overall sensitivity of deposit scale to the reduction in deposit interest rates is low under the trend of low interest rates [1] Group 1: Deposit Scale and Interest Rate Sensitivity - The deposit scale is not sensitive to the reduction in non-interbank deposit rates, primarily due to the manual interest compensation rectification in April 2024, which caused a short-term outflow of deposits to asset management products [2] - Despite several rounds of deposit rate cuts since 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of personal and corporate deposits has aligned with the growth rate of broad money supply, with the proportion of deposits in broad money supply rising from around 48% to a peak of 52% by March 2024 [2][3] - The proportion of deposits in low-risk preference funds has shown a slight decline from a peak of 79.3% in March 2023, indicating manageable outflow pressure [2] Group 2: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts - The disturbances caused by deposit rate cuts on fund outflows were not significant before 2024, but became more pronounced afterward due to increased price comparison willingness in a low-interest environment [3] - Following the deposit rate cuts in July and October 2024, there was a noticeable decline in the year-on-year growth of large bank deposits, indicating a shift towards asset management products [3][4] - The current round of deposit rate cuts is not expected to lead to a significant tightening of the funding environment, as the year-on-year growth of deposits has remained stable despite the cuts [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The attractiveness of asset management products relative to deposits is expected to decrease due to the ongoing adjustments in performance benchmarks and the gradual implementation of net value rectification [4] - The company anticipates that the ticket interest strategy will continue to prevail, with high-grade short-duration credit bonds likely to benefit from some funds flowing from deposits to asset management products [4]

Core Insights - The overall sensitivity of deposit scale to the reduction of deposit rates is low, indicating a strong willingness among individuals and businesses to allocate funds to bank deposits despite rate cuts [1][10] - The shift of deposits from the banking system to asset management products is primarily attributed to the manual interest compensation rectification in April 2024, which had a short-term impact but began to stabilize by July of the same year [1][10] - The proportion of personal and corporate deposits in the broad money supply has increased from approximately 48% to 52% by March 2024, reflecting a robust demand for bank deposits [1][10] Deposit Rate Adjustments - The reduction in deposit rates in July and October 2024 led to a noticeable decline in the year-on-year growth of large bank deposits, dropping from 5.8 trillion yuan to 5.2 trillion yuan and from 5.0 trillion yuan to 4.8 trillion yuan respectively [3] - The asset management product scale saw a rebound, with a shift from a year-on-year decrease of 629.5 billion yuan in August 2024 to a slight increase of 10 billion yuan, and a similar trend was observed in November 2024 [3] Deposit Growth Trends - Large banks' personal and corporate deposit year-on-year growth fluctuated, with notable increases and decreases observed in various months, indicating a dynamic response to interest rate changes [5] - The year-on-year growth of deposits in small and medium-sized banks also showed variability, with a peak growth of 81.56 billion yuan followed by a decrease of 25.29 billion yuan [5] Market Reactions - The bond market typically reacts in advance to expectations of deposit rate cuts, with rates generally declining before the official announcement, although the actual impact on market trends remains limited [10] - Following the last three deposit rate cuts, the yields on various bonds, including government bonds and credit bonds, generally trended downward over the subsequent trading days [10] Future Outlook - The current round of deposit rate cuts is expected to have a limited impact on the outflow of funds, with the probability of a return to a tight liquidity situation similar to the first quarter of the year being low [10] - The attractiveness of asset management products is anticipated to decrease due to ongoing adjustments in performance benchmarks, which may lead to a shift of funds back to deposits [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in monetary policy, highlighting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts while emphasizing the use of structural tools to support economic growth and liquidity in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank has adopted a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a recent 10 basis point (bp) cut being less than market expectations, indicating a focus on stabilizing growth and guiding long-term bond rates [1]. - The average cost of open market operations (OMO), medium-term lending facility (MLF), and reverse repos has decreased by 52 bp, with the average cost at 1.79% as of April [1]. - The central bank is enhancing the use of structural tools, lowering interest rates on these tools and increasing the quotas for various relending programs to directly support the real economy [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The bond market is expected to remain resilient due to liquidity support, with a shift in focus from speculative rate cuts to the reality of declining funding rates, which may provide a safety net for the bond market [1][2]. - The probability of continuous rate cuts in the short term is low, with expectations for a total reduction of around 30 bp for the entire year of 2025, indicating a more stable approach to monetary policy [2]. - The trend of declining short-term funding and certificate of deposit rates is expected to continue, with the 7-day OMO rate recently lowered to 1.4%, suggesting a downward movement towards 1.6% for the one-year AAA certificate of deposit yields [2].

文 ｜ 明明 李晗 徐烨烽 俞柯帆 来正杰 近期债市波动明显加大，债券发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债以避免市场波动的影响，由 此信用债的取消发行规模也明显抬升。与2 0 2 2年以来历轮债券取消发行所对比，我们认为本轮取 消发行是多方因素共振的结果，其一是发债主体主动进行融资成本管理，其二是发债主体保护自身 对于未来市场的"定价权"，避免因高融资成本释放"负面印象"，其三是后续地方债供给放量引起市 场偏谨慎。往后看，若后续负债端赎回压力可控，预计本轮信用债取消发行潮高峰并不会持续过 久。从配置角度看，在当前基准利率波动时期，信用债票息性价比会更加显著，年初更应把握短端 收益率反弹的机会。 ▍ 受债市波动影响，近期信用债推迟或取消发行规模明显抬升。 受资金面偏紧影响，近期债券市场波动加剧，且为避免市场波动对债券发行定价的不利影响，近 期发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债。根据企业预警通数据，2 0 2 5年2月1 7日至2月2 3 日，累计公告信用债取消或推迟发行共2 8只，合计1 4 8 . 8 0亿元，为近一年第二高单周取消发行规 模。具体来看，今年以来取消发行的信用债主体集中在中高等级的国企，且主 ...