1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Interest - rate bonds**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 126.37 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 85.09 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose. During November 10 - 16, 2025, the primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 39.0322 billion yuan. Most treasury bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 40.97BP to 40.36BP [1]. - **Credit bonds**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Most credit bond yields declined [2]. - **Large - scale asset weekly observation**: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, most of the three major US stock indexes rose; European three major stock indexes increased; US bond yields went up; the US dollar index weakened, and non - US currencies were differentiated; crude oil and gold prices rose [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose, and most exchange - based funds also increased [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 39.0322 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased compared to the previous period [25]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Most treasury bond and state - owned development bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spreads of both narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds were newly issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. Most of the issuances were AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 - year terms. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [43]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Most credit bond yields declined. For urban investment bonds, the 1 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 5 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most. For medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 10 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most [50]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the credit bonds of 3 enterprises defaulted [54]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose - Most of the three major US stock indexes, European three major stock indexes, and most Asia - Pacific stock indexes rose [55]. 3.3.2 US Bond Yields Rose - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, US bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed to 44.00BP [58]. 3.3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Were Differentiated - The US dollar index declined by 0.26% weekly, and non - US currencies showed different trends [60]. 3.3.4 Crude Oil and Gold Prices Rose Weekly - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, gold and crude oil prices increased [66]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The macro - economic data in October verified the economic recovery path of "downplaying the aggregate and optimizing the structure". The bond market may remain volatile. Investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of the new fund regulations on the bond market. In the short term, institutional investors may reduce their allocation of pure bond funds and turn to bond ETFs or money market funds. In the long term, the new regulations are conducive to the stability of the liability side of bond funds. It is recommended to seize the band opportunities of interest - rate bonds, focus on high - rated and short - duration credit bonds, and pay attention to the Central Economic Work Conference in December [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: Treasury bond yields declined, and the term spread widened. From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 31,360.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 17,320.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 14,040.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices declined. During October 27 - November 02, 2025, the issuance of interest rate bonds was 4,126.82 billion yuan, with a total repayment of 926.90 billion yuan for matured bonds, and a net financing of 3,199.92 billion yuan. Treasury bond yields decreased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 37.70BP to 41.28BP [1]. - Credit bonds: Credit bond yields to maturity declined. From October 27 to November 02, 2025, 827 new credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 11,042.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5,134.02 billion yuan compared to the previous period. The net financing was 1,379.86 billion yuan. The yields to maturity of urban investment bonds and medium - short - term notes decreased [2]. - Big - asset weekly observation: From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, while most European stock indexes declined. US Treasury yields increased, the US dollar index strengthened, and non - US currencies weakened. Crude oil and gold prices declined during the week [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Treasury Bond Yields Declined, and the Term Spread Widened 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Injection, Most Funding Prices Declined - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the central bank's net injection was 14,040.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices declined, with DR001 down 0.37BP to 1.3184% and DR007 up 4.41BP to 1.4551%. Most exchange - traded funds also declined [15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Net Financing Increased, and Local Bond Issuance Rose - From October 27 to November 02, 2025, the primary - market issuance of interest rate bonds was 4,126.82 billion yuan, with a net financing of 3,199.92 billion yuan. There was no treasury bond issuance, policy - based financial bonds raised 1,420.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance increased, raising 2,706.82 billion yuan [25]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Treasury Bond Yields Declined, and the Term Spread Widened - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by 8.90BP, 11.48BP, 5.12BP, 9.63BP, and 5.32BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 37.70BP to 41.28BP. The yields of China Development Bank bonds also declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 35.93BP to 33.84BP [33]. 2. Credit Bonds: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Declined 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Issuance Volume Decreased Month - on - Month - From October 27 to November 02, 2025, 827 new credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 11,042.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5,134.02 billion yuan compared to the previous period. The net financing was 1,379.86 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. Newly issued bonds were mainly AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly in the 5 - 10 - year term. The construction industry had the largest number of issuances [42]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Declined - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the yields to maturity of urban investment bonds and medium - short - term notes declined. The 3 - year AA + and AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest decline of 10.44BP, and the 5 - year AAA and AA - rated medium - short - term notes had the largest decline of 12.56BP [49]. 2.3 One - Week Credit Default Event Review - From October 27 to November 02, 2025, one enterprise's credit bond defaulted. Rongqiao Group Co., Ltd.'s bond "H0 Rongqiao F1" defaulted on October 31, 2025, with a remaining bond balance of 2.00 billion yuan [53]. 3. Big - Asset Weekly Observation 3.1 Differentiation of European and American Stock Indexes - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, with the Dow up 0.75%, the S&P 500 up 0.71%, and the Nasdaq up 2.24%. Most European stock indexes declined, with the German DAX down 1.16%, the French CAC40 down 1.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.74%. Most Asian - Pacific stock indexes rose [54]. 3.2 US Treasury Yields Increased - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased by 12.00BP, 11.00BP, 10.00BP, 10.00BP, and 9.00BP respectively [57]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Strengthened, and Non - US Currencies Weakened - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.80%. The British pound against the US dollar fell 1.22%, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.78%, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.74%, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.07% [59]. 3.4 Crude Oil and Gold Prices Declined During the Week - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices fell 2.64%, London spot gold prices fell 2.26%, WTI crude oil prices fell 0.85%, and Brent crude oil prices fell 1.32% [65]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Recently, the bond market has strengthened slightly driven by loose policies and risk - aversion sentiment. The central bank's resumption of open - market treasury bond trading on October 27 may stabilize market expectations, supplement liquidity, and optimize the yield curve, which may also catalyze the bullish sentiment in the bond market. With the implementation of new fund sales regulations, the short - term bond market volatility may intensify. It is recommended that investors conduct volatility operations on interest rate bonds to increase returns, the short - duration sinking strategy for urban investment bonds is still cost - effective, and convertible bonds investors can focus on high - elasticity individual bonds and low - premium - rate varieties [67].

Core Viewpoint - Since July, long-end interest rates have been fluctuating upwards, leading to structural resilience in credit bond yields and significant declines in certain varieties, particularly under the influence of macroeconomic narratives and regulatory factors [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The credit bond market has shown structural resilience and significant declines in specific varieties since the third quarter, with short-term credit bonds experiencing minimal yield increases, generally within 10 basis points [2] - Long-end credit bonds, particularly perpetual bonds, have seen yield increases of over 30 to 50 basis points, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to ordinary credit bonds [2] - Historical data suggests that credit bonds typically perform better in the fourth quarter, with overall yields generally declining, except for 2022 when policy shifts caused adjustments [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend focusing on short-term credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of 2 to 3 years, as they have shown better performance during market adjustments [5] - For 4 to 5-year bank perpetual bonds, the current yield spread has exceeded the annual high, indicating a favorable entry point for institutions [5] - The current credit spreads for ultra-long credit bonds are nearing two-year highs, and there is an increasing interest from market participants, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6]

Group 1: Credit Bond Yield Strategy - The credit bond yield strategy shows advantages as credit bonds have demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics in the current adjustment market, with their adjustment pace and magnitude closely following government bonds [1][9] - The current market conditions suggest that credit bonds still possess certain yield value, warranting continued attention, although the protection space of credit spreads is insufficient [1][9] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for the bond market, with a less than 15% probability of interest rates declining in September over the past seven years [1][16] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Fund Behavior - Credit bonds are expected to continue fluctuating weakly in September, but the adjustment magnitude is relatively controllable, as the net selling momentum of funds may weaken [2][20] - Funds significantly sold off credit bonds with maturities over five years in July and August, totaling over 370 billion yuan, leading to a noticeable reduction in long-term bond positions [2][20] - Despite the large net selling, credit bonds did not experience sustained negative feedback, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2][20] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on ordinary credit bond varieties, particularly those with good credit quality and larger outstanding amounts, such as 3Y/AAA+ and AAA bonds yielding around 1.88% and 1.90% respectively [3][23] - For urban investment bonds, the yields for bonds with maturities under 2 years have been compressed to historical low levels, suggesting a focus on high-quality issuers in favorable regions [3][23] - The report recommends prioritizing 4Y and 6Y perpetual bonds while avoiding lower-rated options, maintaining a focus on liquidity and flexibility in bond selection [3][23] Group 4: Policy Impact on Economic Growth - Recent policies aimed at boosting high-tech industries and expanding domestic demand are expected to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by rising manufacturing and service sector PMIs [4][27] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI reached 50.3%, reflecting an overall improvement in economic conditions [4][27] - The service sector is showing significant recovery, with business activity indices indicating strong growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4][28]

Group 1: Interest Rate Bonds - During the period from July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 23,438.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 21,315.00 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2,123.00 billion yuan[2] - The overall interbank funding prices increased, with DR001 rising by 6.08 basis points to 1.5174% and DR007 increasing by 14.56 basis points to 1.6523%[2] - In the primary market, the issuance of interest rate bonds totaled 9,398.05 billion yuan, with total maturing bonds amounting to 7,306.36 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of 2,091.69 billion yuan[2] - The yields on government bonds for various maturities increased: 1-year up by 3.45 basis points to 1.3835%, 3-year up by 7.34 basis points to 1.4777%, 5-year up by 7.92 basis points to 1.6048%, 7-year up by 7.31 basis points to 1.6926%, and 10-year up by 6.72 basis points to 1.7324%[2] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread widened from 31.62 basis points to 34.89 basis points[2] Group 2: Credit Bonds - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, a total of 956 credit bonds were newly issued (including interbank certificates of deposit), with an issuance scale of 12,074.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,330.33 billion yuan compared to the previous period[3] - The total repayment of credit bonds was 14,553.08 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -2,478.24 billion yuan[3] - Among the newly issued bonds, the AAA-rated bonds accounted for 5,334.28 billion yuan, representing 77.67% of the total issuance[3] - The yields on city investment bonds increased overall, with the 3-year AA-rated bonds experiencing the largest rise of 12.27 basis points[3] - The yields on medium-term notes also increased, with the 10-year AAA-rated bonds rising by 11.99 basis points[3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices and inflation expectations, leading to significant adjustments in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, especially for secondary perpetual bonds [3]. - It's too early to talk about negative feedback, with a very low probability. The market's ability to respond has improved, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent negative feedback [4][6]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and is intensifying. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but not continuous and significant ones. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Market Review: Sharp Correction, Widening Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 1.1 Market Performance - The credit bond market had a sharp correction this week, with credit spreads widening. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Yields of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds rose more than 10bp, with a 14.5bp decline in 10Y secondary perpetual bonds. Credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds widened more, while those of some medium - and long - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds slightly narrowed [25]. 1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell Massively - Insurance companies continued to strongly allocate credit bonds, with a net purchase of 125.63 billion yuan this week, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net purchase of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with a similar increase compared to the previous week [40]. - Funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, reaching 22.578 billion yuan. The net sales of bonds within 5Y were 12.738 billion yuan, and those over 5Y were 7.474 billion yuan [40]. 1.3 Low - Rating Transaction Proportion Declines - The proportion of transactions with a remaining maturity of over 3 years for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, remaining at a high level. The proportion of low - rating transactions decreased, with a 1 - percentage - point decline in urban investment bonds with AA(2) and below, a 1 - percentage - point decline in industrial bonds with AA and below, and a 3 - percentage - point decline in secondary perpetual bonds with AA and below [49][53]. 2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - The market adjusted due to the impact of anti - involution policies on commodity prices and inflation expectations. Indicators such as the term structure of interest rate swaps showed a change in inflation expectations [57][61]. - There is no need to worry about negative feedback because the market's response ability has improved, and bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent it. The asset shortage pattern persists, and interest rates are unlikely to have continuous and significant adjustments. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [4][7]. 2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing - In July, non - financial credit bond financing was good, with a net financing of 347.9 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of July in the previous two years [93]. 3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.1 Focus on High - Grade Secondary Perpetual Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - For short - term secondary perpetual bonds, the price - to - value ratio is positive, while for medium - and long - term ones, it is negative. It is recommended that high - grade trading strategies focus on secondary perpetual bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies focus on urban investment bonds. The price - to - value ratio of short - term AAA secondary capital bonds to medium - term notes remains positive, and that of long - term ones fluctuates around 0 [100]. - The price - to - value ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes is positive, and that of long - term low - grade ones has rebounded rapidly, reaching the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have an advantage in terms of bond selection scope [102]. 3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon bond selection, general credit has a wider bond selection space [106]. 3.3 First - Level Issuance Statistics - No specific content provided in the output for further summary 3.4 Second - Level Valuation Change Details - No specific content provided in the output for further summary

Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market currently shows a pattern of short - end repair and long - end differentiation. Short - term high - grade credit bonds are performing well, while long - term low - grade credit bonds still have room for spread repair. [2][6][15] - The liability - side stability of the wealth management market provides support for credit bond allocation. The net - loss ratio is low, and the scale fluctuation is narrowing. [7] - After the cross - month point, the capital market sentiment has eased, and the selling pressure on credit bonds has weakened. Different institutional behaviors have reshaped the market structure. [8] - It is recommended to adopt a progressive allocation strategy from short to long along the yield curve. [9][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Short Credit Repair, Long - Duration Waiting for Progressive Layout - From March 10th to 14th, short - term credit bonds showed relative advantages. The 1 - year - below AAA credit bond index rose by 0.05%, while the 10 - year - above treasury bond full - price index adjusted by - 1.12%. [16] - The short - end repair is in progress, but the long - end low - grade credit bond yield curve and spread repair are still lagging. As of the latest point, the yield of AA - rated 5 - year bonds has increased by about 10 basis points compared with the end of September last year, and the 5 - year AA - credit spread has widened by about 31 basis points. [17] 3.2 Wealth Management Net - Loss Ratio Shows Structural Differentiation and Seasonal Repair Characteristics - The current net - loss ratio of wealth management products is generally controllable. The net - loss ratios of state - owned and joint - stock wealth management subsidiaries are around 3%, and those of city and rural commercial banks are around 3.5% and 5% respectively. [19] - The scale of joint - stock wealth management subsidiaries has been gently expanding. The actual redemption pressure is controllable as the average redemption yield is higher than the lower limit of the performance benchmark. [21] 3.3 Capital Sentiment Eases, Credit Bond Selling Pressure Alleviates - After the cross - month point, the capital market sentiment index gradually declined. The selling pressure on credit bonds in the second half - week of March 10th - 14th decreased significantly, with the GVN of credit bonds dropping from 9156 on March 11th to 6322. [27][29] 3.4 Short - End Repair Momentum Strengthens and Long - End Spread Structure Adjusts in Parallel - The short - end pricing pressure of the bond market has been significantly relieved. For example, the yield of 1 - month commercial bank secondary capital bonds has decreased by 9 basis points from March 7th to 14th, and the yield of 1 - month urban investment bonds has decreased by 8 basis points. [34] - The medium - and long - term note market shows a term - differentiation feature. The yield of 3 - year varieties has decreased by 1 basis point, but the spread of 10 - year varieties has widened by 10 basis points. [34] 3.5 Medium - and Long - Duration Credit Bond Allocation Momentum Increases Structurally - Wealth management products show a characteristic of extending duration. From March 10th to 14th, the net purchase of 3 - year and 5 - year credit bonds was 340 million yuan and 260 million yuan respectively, and the purchase of 5 - year bonds increased by 150 million yuan compared with the previous week. [43] - Insurance institutions have increased their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds, with the net purchase of 10 - year credit bonds remaining at around 3 billion yuan. [43] - There is a game pattern of "insurance extending duration, funds shortening duration" among institutions. [45] 3.6 Progressive Allocation Strategy to Deal with Market Disagreements - Short - term high - grade credit bonds can provide an operation space for trading - type funds. Medium - term 3 - 5 - year varieties are suitable for allocation - type funds for bottom - position layout. Long - term oversold bonds need to select urban investment bonds in regions with strong fiscal strength. [9] - It is recommended to maintain a neutral portfolio duration and keep a dynamic balance between treasury bonds and credit bonds. [9]

文 ｜ 明明 李晗 徐烨烽 俞柯帆 来正杰 近期债市波动明显加大，债券发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债以避免市场波动的影响，由 此信用债的取消发行规模也明显抬升。与2 0 2 2年以来历轮债券取消发行所对比，我们认为本轮取 消发行是多方因素共振的结果，其一是发债主体主动进行融资成本管理，其二是发债主体保护自身 对于未来市场的"定价权"，避免因高融资成本释放"负面印象"，其三是后续地方债供给放量引起市 场偏谨慎。往后看，若后续负债端赎回压力可控，预计本轮信用债取消发行潮高峰并不会持续过 久。从配置角度看，在当前基准利率波动时期，信用债票息性价比会更加显著，年初更应把握短端 收益率反弹的机会。 ▍ 受债市波动影响，近期信用债推迟或取消发行规模明显抬升。 受资金面偏紧影响，近期债券市场波动加剧，且为避免市场波动对债券发行定价的不利影响，近 期发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债。根据企业预警通数据，2 0 2 5年2月1 7日至2月2 3 日，累计公告信用债取消或推迟发行共2 8只，合计1 4 8 . 8 0亿元，为近一年第二高单周取消发行规 模。具体来看，今年以来取消发行的信用债主体集中在中高等级的国企，且主 ...