新华财经上海10月11日电 7月以来，长端利率中枢震荡抬升，在宏观叙事变化以及监管因素冲击下，机 构行为变化带来的交易摩擦与筹码互换，使得信用债收益率走出了结构性抗跌、品种性超跌的行情。 展望四季度，信用债市场能否继续布局？ 分析人士认为，在宏观图景与政策取向尚未发生大幅超预期变化的情况下，短期信用债仍是各机构的较 优选择，尤其在经历了9月的市场回调后，其配置性价比将有所凸显。 四季度尚有参与机会 那么，展望四季度，信用债市场会否继续下跌？ "回顾史上四季度的信用债表现，除2022年政策转向引致债市收益率调整外，其他年份收益率整体走 低。"天风证券研究所固收首席分析师谭逸鸣认为，"考虑到历史上四季度信用债的一级供给整体偏弱， 则供需结构有利于后市行情的演绎。在宏观图景与政策取向尚未发生大幅超预期变化的情况下，短期信 用债仍然是当前机构最偏好的资产，尤其经历了9月份的市场回调后，其配置性价比已有所凸显。" 仍需警惕扰动因素 节后伊始，债市不改弱势震荡格局。 可以看到，三季度以来，信用债市场呈现出了结构性抗跌与品种性超跌的行情。一方面，短期信用债整 体相对抗跌，收益率上行幅度多在10BP以内，信用利差小幅收窄，且 ...

Group 1: Credit Bond Yield Strategy - The credit bond yield strategy shows advantages as credit bonds have demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics in the current adjustment market, with their adjustment pace and magnitude closely following government bonds [1][9] - The current market conditions suggest that credit bonds still possess certain yield value, warranting continued attention, although the protection space of credit spreads is insufficient [1][9] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a challenging month for the bond market, with a less than 15% probability of interest rates declining in September over the past seven years [1][16] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Fund Behavior - Credit bonds are expected to continue fluctuating weakly in September, but the adjustment magnitude is relatively controllable, as the net selling momentum of funds may weaken [2][20] - Funds significantly sold off credit bonds with maturities over five years in July and August, totaling over 370 billion yuan, leading to a noticeable reduction in long-term bond positions [2][20] - Despite the large net selling, credit bonds did not experience sustained negative feedback, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2][20] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on ordinary credit bond varieties, particularly those with good credit quality and larger outstanding amounts, such as 3Y/AAA+ and AAA bonds yielding around 1.88% and 1.90% respectively [3][23] - For urban investment bonds, the yields for bonds with maturities under 2 years have been compressed to historical low levels, suggesting a focus on high-quality issuers in favorable regions [3][23] - The report recommends prioritizing 4Y and 6Y perpetual bonds while avoiding lower-rated options, maintaining a focus on liquidity and flexibility in bond selection [3][23] Group 4: Policy Impact on Economic Growth - Recent policies aimed at boosting high-tech industries and expanding domestic demand are expected to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by rising manufacturing and service sector PMIs [4][27] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI reached 50.3%, reflecting an overall improvement in economic conditions [4][27] - The service sector is showing significant recovery, with business activity indices indicating strong growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4][28]

Group 1: Interest Rate Bonds - During the period from July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 23,438.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 21,315.00 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2,123.00 billion yuan[2] - The overall interbank funding prices increased, with DR001 rising by 6.08 basis points to 1.5174% and DR007 increasing by 14.56 basis points to 1.6523%[2] - In the primary market, the issuance of interest rate bonds totaled 9,398.05 billion yuan, with total maturing bonds amounting to 7,306.36 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of 2,091.69 billion yuan[2] - The yields on government bonds for various maturities increased: 1-year up by 3.45 basis points to 1.3835%, 3-year up by 7.34 basis points to 1.4777%, 5-year up by 7.92 basis points to 1.6048%, 7-year up by 7.31 basis points to 1.6926%, and 10-year up by 6.72 basis points to 1.7324%[2] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread widened from 31.62 basis points to 34.89 basis points[2] Group 2: Credit Bonds - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, a total of 956 credit bonds were newly issued (including interbank certificates of deposit), with an issuance scale of 12,074.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,330.33 billion yuan compared to the previous period[3] - The total repayment of credit bonds was 14,553.08 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -2,478.24 billion yuan[3] - Among the newly issued bonds, the AAA-rated bonds accounted for 5,334.28 billion yuan, representing 77.67% of the total issuance[3] - The yields on city investment bonds increased overall, with the 3-year AA-rated bonds experiencing the largest rise of 12.27 basis points[3] - The yields on medium-term notes also increased, with the 10-year AAA-rated bonds rising by 11.99 basis points[3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices and inflation expectations, leading to significant adjustments in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, especially for secondary perpetual bonds [3]. - It's too early to talk about negative feedback, with a very low probability. The market's ability to respond has improved, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent negative feedback [4][6]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and is intensifying. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but not continuous and significant ones. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Market Review: Sharp Correction, Widening Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 1.1 Market Performance - The credit bond market had a sharp correction this week, with credit spreads widening. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Yields of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds rose more than 10bp, with a 14.5bp decline in 10Y secondary perpetual bonds. Credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds widened more, while those of some medium - and long - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds slightly narrowed [25]. 1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell Massively - Insurance companies continued to strongly allocate credit bonds, with a net purchase of 125.63 billion yuan this week, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net purchase of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with a similar increase compared to the previous week [40]. - Funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, reaching 22.578 billion yuan. The net sales of bonds within 5Y were 12.738 billion yuan, and those over 5Y were 7.474 billion yuan [40]. 1.3 Low - Rating Transaction Proportion Declines - The proportion of transactions with a remaining maturity of over 3 years for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, remaining at a high level. The proportion of low - rating transactions decreased, with a 1 - percentage - point decline in urban investment bonds with AA(2) and below, a 1 - percentage - point decline in industrial bonds with AA and below, and a 3 - percentage - point decline in secondary perpetual bonds with AA and below [49][53]. 2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - The market adjusted due to the impact of anti - involution policies on commodity prices and inflation expectations. Indicators such as the term structure of interest rate swaps showed a change in inflation expectations [57][61]. - There is no need to worry about negative feedback because the market's response ability has improved, and bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent it. The asset shortage pattern persists, and interest rates are unlikely to have continuous and significant adjustments. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [4][7]. 2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing - In July, non - financial credit bond financing was good, with a net financing of 347.9 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of July in the previous two years [93]. 3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.1 Focus on High - Grade Secondary Perpetual Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - For short - term secondary perpetual bonds, the price - to - value ratio is positive, while for medium - and long - term ones, it is negative. It is recommended that high - grade trading strategies focus on secondary perpetual bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies focus on urban investment bonds. The price - to - value ratio of short - term AAA secondary capital bonds to medium - term notes remains positive, and that of long - term ones fluctuates around 0 [100]. - The price - to - value ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes is positive, and that of long - term low - grade ones has rebounded rapidly, reaching the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have an advantage in terms of bond selection scope [102]. 3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon bond selection, general credit has a wider bond selection space [106]. 3.3 First - Level Issuance Statistics - No specific content provided in the output for further summary 3.4 Second - Level Valuation Change Details - No specific content provided in the output for further summary

Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market currently shows a pattern of short - end repair and long - end differentiation. Short - term high - grade credit bonds are performing well, while long - term low - grade credit bonds still have room for spread repair. [2][6][15] - The liability - side stability of the wealth management market provides support for credit bond allocation. The net - loss ratio is low, and the scale fluctuation is narrowing. [7] - After the cross - month point, the capital market sentiment has eased, and the selling pressure on credit bonds has weakened. Different institutional behaviors have reshaped the market structure. [8] - It is recommended to adopt a progressive allocation strategy from short to long along the yield curve. [9][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Short Credit Repair, Long - Duration Waiting for Progressive Layout - From March 10th to 14th, short - term credit bonds showed relative advantages. The 1 - year - below AAA credit bond index rose by 0.05%, while the 10 - year - above treasury bond full - price index adjusted by - 1.12%. [16] - The short - end repair is in progress, but the long - end low - grade credit bond yield curve and spread repair are still lagging. As of the latest point, the yield of AA - rated 5 - year bonds has increased by about 10 basis points compared with the end of September last year, and the 5 - year AA - credit spread has widened by about 31 basis points. [17] 3.2 Wealth Management Net - Loss Ratio Shows Structural Differentiation and Seasonal Repair Characteristics - The current net - loss ratio of wealth management products is generally controllable. The net - loss ratios of state - owned and joint - stock wealth management subsidiaries are around 3%, and those of city and rural commercial banks are around 3.5% and 5% respectively. [19] - The scale of joint - stock wealth management subsidiaries has been gently expanding. The actual redemption pressure is controllable as the average redemption yield is higher than the lower limit of the performance benchmark. [21] 3.3 Capital Sentiment Eases, Credit Bond Selling Pressure Alleviates - After the cross - month point, the capital market sentiment index gradually declined. The selling pressure on credit bonds in the second half - week of March 10th - 14th decreased significantly, with the GVN of credit bonds dropping from 9156 on March 11th to 6322. [27][29] 3.4 Short - End Repair Momentum Strengthens and Long - End Spread Structure Adjusts in Parallel - The short - end pricing pressure of the bond market has been significantly relieved. For example, the yield of 1 - month commercial bank secondary capital bonds has decreased by 9 basis points from March 7th to 14th, and the yield of 1 - month urban investment bonds has decreased by 8 basis points. [34] - The medium - and long - term note market shows a term - differentiation feature. The yield of 3 - year varieties has decreased by 1 basis point, but the spread of 10 - year varieties has widened by 10 basis points. [34] 3.5 Medium - and Long - Duration Credit Bond Allocation Momentum Increases Structurally - Wealth management products show a characteristic of extending duration. From March 10th to 14th, the net purchase of 3 - year and 5 - year credit bonds was 340 million yuan and 260 million yuan respectively, and the purchase of 5 - year bonds increased by 150 million yuan compared with the previous week. [43] - Insurance institutions have increased their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds, with the net purchase of 10 - year credit bonds remaining at around 3 billion yuan. [43] - There is a game pattern of "insurance extending duration, funds shortening duration" among institutions. [45] 3.6 Progressive Allocation Strategy to Deal with Market Disagreements - Short - term high - grade credit bonds can provide an operation space for trading - type funds. Medium - term 3 - 5 - year varieties are suitable for allocation - type funds for bottom - position layout. Long - term oversold bonds need to select urban investment bonds in regions with strong fiscal strength. [9] - It is recommended to maintain a neutral portfolio duration and keep a dynamic balance between treasury bonds and credit bonds. [9]

文 ｜ 明明 李晗 徐烨烽 俞柯帆 来正杰 近期债市波动明显加大，债券发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债以避免市场波动的影响，由 此信用债的取消发行规模也明显抬升。与2 0 2 2年以来历轮债券取消发行所对比，我们认为本轮取 消发行是多方因素共振的结果，其一是发债主体主动进行融资成本管理，其二是发债主体保护自身 对于未来市场的"定价权"，避免因高融资成本释放"负面印象"，其三是后续地方债供给放量引起市 场偏谨慎。往后看，若后续负债端赎回压力可控，预计本轮信用债取消发行潮高峰并不会持续过 久。从配置角度看，在当前基准利率波动时期，信用债票息性价比会更加显著，年初更应把握短端 收益率反弹的机会。 ▍ 受债市波动影响，近期信用债推迟或取消发行规模明显抬升。 受资金面偏紧影响，近期债券市场波动加剧，且为避免市场波动对债券发行定价的不利影响，近 期发行人更多的选择推迟或取消发行信用债。根据企业预警通数据，2 0 2 5年2月1 7日至2月2 3 日，累计公告信用债取消或推迟发行共2 8只，合计1 4 8 . 8 0亿元，为近一年第二高单周取消发行规 模。具体来看，今年以来取消发行的信用债主体集中在中高等级的国企，且主 ...