Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the necessity for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year [2][4][6]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the annual target [4][6]. - The nominal GDP growth in the second quarter was only 3.9%, with a GDP deflator index decline of 1.2%, indicating persistent supply-demand imbalances [4][6]. Policy Drivers - Economic growth was supported by proactive policies and early implementation of consumption-boosting measures, such as the "trade-in" policy, which significantly improved retail sales in various categories [6][9]. - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy showing substantial growth, such as home appliances and communication equipment [6][9]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment at 4.6% and manufacturing investment at 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [9]. - Investment in equipment and tools surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [9]. Export Performance - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [13][20]. - Diversification of exports helped mitigate the decline in U.S. exports, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [13][20]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive growth indicators, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate [15][16]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on consumer spending may weaken in the second half due to lower absolute funding compared to the first half and higher base effects from last year [16]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the second half of the year will see targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, focusing on optimizing existing budget allocations and supporting key sectors [27][28]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and address unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending [29]. Investment and Infrastructure - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key growth driver, with ongoing projects and new policy tools aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [31][32]. - The government is likely to focus on urban renewal and improving housing quality while avoiding excessive stimulus measures [34]. Monetary Policy - A slight reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates may occur, but significant monetary easing is not anticipated in the short term [36][37]. - The stability of the RMB against the USD is expected to be maintained, with potential slight depreciation against other currencies [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the need for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. It anticipates the introduction of new policies to stimulate the economy in response to various challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target. However, the GDP deflator index fell by 1.2% in the second quarter, marking nine consecutive quarters of negative growth in the index, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which significantly boosted consumption [3][4]. Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, with notable growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and communication equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%. However, real estate investment declined by 11.2%. Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to total investment growth [6][7]. Trade and Export - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand [9][10]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate. The article notes that the base effect from last year's policies may lead to weaker economic data in the second half [12][14]. - Real estate sales and prices have shown signs of decline, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half [17][18]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, with an emphasis on optimizing existing budgets and addressing specific economic challenges [20][21]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and stimulate demand, while investment strategies will likely shift towards infrastructure projects to counteract declining manufacturing and real estate investments [22][25]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments such as a small reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates, particularly in response to global economic conditions [26][27]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the main issues facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output, suggesting that a focus on domestic and international circulation and supply-demand relationships is crucial for understanding economic pressures [18][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations are somewhat restored but still weak in reality. There is an accumulation of industrial inventory, and more effective demand is needed to drive industry destocking. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 148,507 lots, down 1,651 lots. The position of the main contract is 411,638 lots, up 30,453 lots. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 1,000 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The warehouse receipts of GZEE are 9,969 lots, down 270 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,880 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 730 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 6,325 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,878 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons. The monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons. The monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%. The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 4.93 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 222,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (811 - type) in China is 144,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China is 119,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.05 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 44.32%, up 0.33%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 70,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, down 0.38%. The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.75%, down 0.04% [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 194,993 lots, up 11,479 lots. The total put position is 89,197 lots, up 5,667 lots. The put - to - call ratio of the total position is 45.74%, up 0.2267%. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.35%, up 0.0343% [2] Industry News - Guangdong and Anhui, as strong provinces in automobile manufacturing in China, will standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry, shifting from "price war" to "value war". Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH) announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 7.534 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.04%, and the net profit was 307 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.76%. The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide increased by 56.64% year - on - year, and the sales volume of power battery cathode materials increased by 20.76% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national economy showed a stable and positive trend, and the more proactive fiscal policy was effective. In the second half of the year, the fiscal policy will continue to play a leading role in promoting consumption and investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese Senate election results indicate a significant political shift, with the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito losing its majority, yet the market reacted positively, with both the yen and Nikkei futures rising [1][2]. Short-term Outlook - The LDP and Komeito coalition lost their majority in the Senate for the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955, falling short by three seats [2]. - Despite the disappointing results, the situation is not as dire as some had feared, allowing the LDP to potentially continue governing as a minority [2][5]. Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Kishida plans to remain in power, citing national crises such as tariff negotiations and high prices, despite internal calls for accountability [4]. - All major opposition parties currently refuse to form a coalition government with the LDP, indicating a challenging political landscape for the ruling party [4][6]. Future Political Developments - The likelihood of a snap election in the House of Representatives this year is low, as both the LDP and opposition parties face challenges in regaining or expanding their seats [5]. - The LDP may continue to operate as a minority government, collaborating with opposition parties on policies, although some parties may reconsider their positions over time [5][6]. Long-term Projections - There is increasing pressure on Prime Minister Kishida to resign, which could lead to a new LDP leadership election and potentially a dissolution of the House of Representatives [7]. - The election results reflect voter support for active fiscal policies and conservatism, suggesting a shift in the LDP's approach under new leadership [8]. - The political situation is expected to stabilize over the next three months, with potential implications for fiscal policy and the stock market, despite short-term risks [8].

Economic Overview - The province's economy showed overall stability in the first half of the year, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - General public budget revenue reached 166.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while expenditure was 331.3 billion, up 3.9% [1] - The province's fiscal revenue completed 55.1% of the annual budget, exceeding the scheduled progress by 5.1 percentage points [1] Fiscal Policy and Investment - The province's fiscal policy has been proactive, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue by 1.1 percentage points, and exceeding the national average by 1.3 percentage points [2] - Significant investments were made in various sectors, including 180.4 billion for "two heavy" projects and 50 billion for consumer upgrades, contributing to a 6.3% increase in retail sales and a 15.9% rise in manufacturing investment [3] Social Welfare and Public Spending - The province has increased spending on social welfare, with 77.6% of the general public budget allocated to this area, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Notable increases in social security and employment spending were reported, with a 19% rise compared to last year [4] - The government has implemented measures to protect the rights of new employment forms, such as couriers and ride-hailing drivers, enhancing their social security [4] Future Outlook - The fiscal department plans to adapt to changing conditions and implement national policies to support economic and social development in the second half of the year [5]

Domestic News - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially commenced on July 19 in Nyingchi, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five tiered power stations primarily for power transmission and local consumption [2] - The Ministry of Finance's Deputy Minister Liao Min announced at the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting that China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year and expand high-level opening-up [2] Industry News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) released the list of A-level enterprises for the 2024 annual performance assessment, including major companies such as State Grid Corporation of China and China National Petroleum Corporation [3] - The Lixun Robot Headquarters project broke ground in Changshu with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, expected to achieve an annual output value of 10 billion yuan upon completion [4] - FAW Qiji New Power Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of FAW Group, held its inaugural conference in Changchun, focusing on developing leading technologies in new energy powertrains [4]

Core Viewpoint - The G20 meeting in Durban emphasized the importance of respecting economic development laws, maintaining multilateralism and free trade, and promoting inclusive economic globalization to stabilize the complex global economic system and support global economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Stability - China's economic development is showing a steady progress, contributing stability to global economic growth [1] - The internal and external balance of the Chinese economy is in good condition, with domestic consumption accounting for an increasing proportion of GDP [1] - The trade surplus in China's current account is around 2%, which is recognized as a balanced level internationally [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation - In the second half of the year, China plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and expand high-level opening-up [1]

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, the actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 was 3.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from Q1[3] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial added value in the first half was 6.4%[40] Industrial Performance - In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 5.5%[11] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 7.0% in the first half, while high-tech industries saw a 9.5% increase[11] - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing rose by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half, while infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%[27] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from May[17] - Cumulative retail sales for the first half increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with service consumption rising by 5.3%[40] - The average per capita disposable income in the first half was 21,840 yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year[36] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half was 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous period[24] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with new housing starts down 20.0%[28] - The decline in real estate sales area was 3.5%, and sales revenue decreased by 5.5%[30] Policy Implications - Strengthening fiscal policy is crucial for stabilizing economic growth in the second half of 2025[40] - The uncertainty of external demand, particularly due to U.S. tariff policies, poses risks to economic stability[41] - Monitoring the outcomes of the July Politburo meeting will be essential for understanding future economic strategies[41]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization and improvement in the first half of 2025, supported by declining funding costs and effective financial policies [1][3]. Financial Performance - The weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending decreased from 1.86% in January to 1.46% in June, while the repo rate fell from 2.16% to 1.5% during the same period, indicating lower funding costs that support the real economy [3]. - Key financial indicators showed positive trends: social financing stock increased by 8.9% year-on-year, broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3%, and RMB loans rose by 7.1% [3][5]. Market Recovery - The capital market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 3500 points since September 24, 2024, reflecting improved market confidence and expectations [4]. - The introduction of two new structural policy tools by the central bank on September 24, 2024, aimed at supporting the capital market, has significantly boosted market confidence despite their limited actual usage [4]. Policy Impact - The combined effect of monetary and fiscal policies is becoming increasingly evident, with government bond financing rising significantly. In the first half of 2025, social financing increased by 22.83 trillion RMB, with government bond net financing reaching 7.66 trillion RMB, indicating a stronger fiscal policy [5][6]. - Despite positive developments, challenges remain, particularly in the disparity between broad money (M2) and narrow money (M1) growth rates, suggesting room for improvement in monetary vitality [5][6].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - Social financing stock increased by 8.9% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Loan stock grew by 7.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month[5] - M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, rising 2.3 percentage points from the previous month[5] - M2 grew by 8.3% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[5] Group 2: Contributing Factors - Government bond financing contributed 0.1 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of social financing stock, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year[5] - Foreign currency loans contributed 0.03 percentage points to social financing stock growth, reflecting increased support for foreign trade enterprises[5] - Short-term loans to enterprises contributed 0.18 percentage points to loan stock growth, offsetting declines from other financing categories[5] - Corporate deposits increased by 1.77 trillion yuan, up 3.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting the recovery of money supply growth[5] Group 3: Policy and Economic Context - The proactive fiscal policy has been implemented early, enhancing the financial system's support[5] - Structural policy tools have achieved full coverage across various sectors, with loans in technology, green finance, and other areas growing significantly[5] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[4][13]