Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pushing for the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could allow him to gain a majority on the seven-member board and increase White House influence over the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Political Influence and Control - Trump's call for Cook's resignation follows accusations of mortgage fraud against her, highlighting the administration's willingness to exert control over the Fed [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that this move reflects the administration's broader strategy to increase its influence over the Federal Reserve, which has traditionally operated independently from political pressure [2][3]. Group 2: Potential Changes in the Federal Reserve Board - If Cook is removed, Trump could appoint four members to the Fed's board, potentially giving him a majority [3][4]. - Trump's previous appointments have already included two current members, and he has nominated Stephen Miran to fill a recently vacated position [3]. Group 3: Challenges to Implementing Policy Changes - Even with a majority on the board, it does not guarantee that Trump's agenda will be realized, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for rate decisions and requires broader support [4][6]. - Current board members, including those appointed by Trump, may not necessarily align with the administration's monetary policy goals, as evidenced by past dissenting votes [9]. Group 4: Implications for Future Leadership - The future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is uncertain, as his term ends in May 2024, and Trump's ability to appoint a successor will depend on Powell's decision to remain on the board [4][10]. - If Cook were to leave, it might pressure Powell to stay on as a board member to counteract political interference [10].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of E.J. Anthony as the new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by President Trump is seen as a move to ensure the accuracy and integrity of employment data amidst recent controversies regarding data manipulation and significant downward revisions of non-farm payroll figures [1][3][4]. Group 1: Appointment and Background - E.J. Anthony, an economist and chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, has been nominated to replace the recently dismissed Erica McEntyre as the BLS director [1][3]. - Trump's decision to fire McEntyre was based on dissatisfaction with weak non-farm payroll data, which he accused her of manipulating for political reasons without providing evidence [3][4]. - The BLS has a reputation for producing data that is considered the "gold standard" globally, and there are concerns that this reputation may be at risk following the recent leadership change [3][4]. Group 2: Data Revisions and Economic Implications - Recent revisions to employment data showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June, marking the largest downward revision since the COVID-19 pandemic began [3]. - The average job growth over the past three months has been only 35,000, shifting perceptions of the labor market from "robust" to "nearly stagnant" [3]. - These new data have raised questions about the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, especially given Trump's previous pressure to lower borrowing costs [3]. Group 3: E.J. Anthony's Views and Future Actions - Anthony has been critical of the BLS's methods for collecting employment data and has called for a comprehensive review of the agency's data collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination practices [5]. - He advocates for increased transparency by suggesting that the BLS should publish more information on its website [5]. - The position of BLS director is appointed by the president and requires Senate confirmation, typically spanning across different administrations [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expanding the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, considering several current and former officials, with a decision expected in the fall [2][3]. Candidate Background - The potential candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, James Bullard, and Marc Sumerlin [4]. - Michelle Bowman was appointed to the Federal Reserve by Trump in 2018 and currently serves as Vice Chair for Supervision. She has advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut [5]. - Philip Jefferson, nominated by Biden, has received bipartisan support and would be the first Black Federal Reserve Chair if selected. He has supported maintaining current interest rates [5]. - Lorie Logan, appointed as Dallas Fed President in 2022, has also supported keeping rates unchanged and emphasized the need to guard against tariff-driven inflation [5]. Candidate Discussions - Kevin Hassett has discussed the Federal Reserve Chair position with Trump, while Kevin Warsh was previously considered for the role in 2017 [6]. - James Bullard recently stepped down as St. Louis Fed President and has expressed interest in the Chair position [6]. - Marc Sumerlin, who has no prior Federal Reserve experience, has been involved in economic consulting and has connections with Scott Bessent [6]. Federal Reserve Vacancies - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of seven Federal Reserve governors, the New York Fed President, and four rotating members from the other 11 regional Fed banks [7]. - Trump has nominated Stephen Miran for a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board, which will expire at the end of January next year [7]. Appointment Process - The Trump team is not in a rush to finalize the Federal Reserve Chair selection, as Miran's nomination is pending Senate confirmation [8]. - Trump has criticized the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and the next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17 [9].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend on August 8, with Shanghai gold futures priced at 788.04 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.59%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9264.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.68% [1] - International precious metal prices were mixed, with COMEX gold priced at 3497.10 USD per ounce, up by 0.41%, while COMEX silver was at 38.51 USD per ounce, down by 0.05% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver futures were 784.18 CNY and 9275.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 788.36 CNY and 9318.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as lacking logic, while Fed official Bostic indicated that dissenting opinions at future meetings would not be surprising given the current complexities [3] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 7.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, a 92.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 2.5% chance of holding rates steady in October, with cumulative probabilities for cuts of 25 and 50 basis points at 36.1% and 61.5%, respectively [3] - On August 7, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.44% to 3482.70 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.26% to 785.44 CNY per gram, driven by market expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and October [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing political polarization in the United States since Trump's presidency, highlighting his aggressive actions against the Democratic Party and the resulting tensions across the country [1][3][9] - Trump's administration has been characterized by the removal of over 80 regulations from the previous administration and the revocation of security clearances for key Democratic figures, which has intensified the political conflict [3][5] - The article notes that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated due to Trump's trade policies, leading him to pressure the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, which has been repeatedly denied by Chairman Powell [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is growing, as he has successfully appointed members who favor interest rate cuts, potentially increasing his power over monetary policy [5][7] - The Democratic Party is actively opposing Trump through legal challenges and public protests, indicating a significant mobilization against his administration's policies [7][9] - The article concludes that the ongoing political strife is overshadowing the concerns of ordinary Americans, with both parties entrenched in a battle for power [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Board member, Kuger, announced his resignation effective August 8, 2023, and will return to Georgetown University as a professor [2][3] - President Trump reiterated his call for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign, criticizing Powell's decisions on interest rates [5] - The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with 9 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [5][7] Group 2 - Kuger was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board in September 2023, with a term originally set to last until January 31, 2024, but his early departure allows President Trump to make new appointments sooner [3] - This marks the first time in over 30 years that two Federal Reserve Board members expressed differing opinions in a vote regarding interest rate decisions [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump has accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica McEntyre, of artificially inflating employment data ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections and has called for her dismissal [1][2] - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Notably, the employment data for May and June was revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The BLS reported that the revisions were based on subsequent reports from businesses and government agencies, as well as seasonal adjustments [2] Group 2 - Trump claimed that the employment report was compiled by officials appointed by Biden and alleged that McEntyre and the BLS had "falsified" employment data before the last election, suggesting that the job growth for 2023 was overestimated by approximately 818,000 jobs [2] - Following the release of the employment data, Labor Secretary Laura Chavez-Dremer announced that Deputy BLS Director William Wiatrowski would serve as acting director until a successor is found [2][3] - Trump has also criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed's actions, including interest rate decisions, are politically motivated to influence the upcoming elections [4]

Core Viewpoint - The employment data released today is significant but will not alter the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates this week, with expectations for one rate cut later this year [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The employment market is showing signs of slowing down from previously strong levels, as indicated by the substantial revisions in today's employment data [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to further assess the trends in hiring before making any decisions [1] Group 2: Inflation Risks - The greater risk this week lies in inflation rates, which currently face dual risks of either continuing to decline or potentially accelerating again [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - If tariff policies have an impact, the Federal Reserve cannot ignore their effects, and businesses will require time to adjust prices in response to tariff increases [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔在当天举行的记者会上说，"我们有两位反对者"，他们表达了自己的立场。关于 降息，每个人都有其想法和论点。不过，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数成员认为目前的通胀水平略高于 目标，而当前的利率则处于适度限制水平。鲍威尔表示，"仍有很多不确定因素"，如果降息过早，可能 无法完全解决通胀问题。 声明称，在考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以 及风险平衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒两位美联储理事投票反对继续维持利率不变。他们主张 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。此外，阿德里安娜·库格勒理事缺席未投票。 《华尔街日报》报道说，这是自1993年以来首次出现多位美联储理事在联邦基金利率决策过程中投 反对票的情况。美联储利率决策由12名成员组成的联邦公开市场委员会投票决定，其中7人是美联储理 事。 中新社纽约7月30日电 (记者 王帆)美国联邦储备委员会30日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。这是美联储今年连续第五次"按兵不动"。此次决策过程中，有两位理事 罕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, amid significant political pressure for a rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions and inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations and reflects the Fed's careful consideration of the economic impact of tariffs on inflation and employment [1][2]. - The policy statement showed little change, signaling no immediate intention to lower rates, despite two officials dissenting and calling for a 25 basis point cut [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, but a slowdown in private sector and consumer demand from 1.9% to 1.2% [4]. - Concerns about inflation persist, as tariffs may push prices higher, potentially keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the fifth consecutive year [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Diverging Opinions - The Fed faces internal divisions regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation, with some officials arguing that current rates are too high for the economic situation [6]. - The potential for a rate cut in September hinges on the influence of tariffs on inflation and signs of weakness in the labor market, with investors estimating a two-thirds probability of a cut [5][6].