4. 收集高质量信息，以便对各种方案进行比较和选择。 5. 寻找和选择优秀和/或独特的解决方案。 本文是关于管理决策过程的文章，是菲利普·德克尔教授和乔丹·米切尔教授撰写的关于自我设限型领导 力文章。 管理决策过程中的自我设限 所有领导者都需要做决策——有些决策需要复杂的分析，有些则像抛硬币一样简单。无论哪种方式，领 导者都会面临许多自身局限，这些局限会阻碍他们发挥最佳能力解决问题。 自我设限可能会损害决策的某些方面，例如： 1. 选择问题。 2. 定义问题。 3. 组建决策团队。 6. 决策的执行过程。 7. 监测决策结果。 在这些领域中的任何一个失误都可能导致糟糕的决策结果。任何人只需上网浏览各种"七步模型"，就能 成为这些流程的"专家"，但了解领导者可能采取哪些措施来阻碍这些流程，才是卓越领导力的关键。 导致（糟糕的）管理决策的因素是什么？ 决策可能基于情绪，也可能在未充分考虑其他方案或信息的情况下做出。领导者也可能因为目光短浅、 试图取悦所有人或因害怕承担责任而逃避决策，从而做出糟糕的决定。 基于个人喜好而非机构及其使命做出决策，显然会对所有相关方造成负面影响。好的决策应充分考虑个 人或团队的认知，评 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储常因过于追求共识而遭诟病，如今其利率决策可能出现一连串分歧投票。这不仅会弱化政策传达 效果，还将加剧外界对其独立性的质疑。 今年夏季以来，美联储政策制定者间的分歧逐渐显现。通胀缓解进程陷入停滞，同时就业增长势头减 弱，使得这家全球最大央行的2%通胀目标与充分就业目标直接冲突。 近期美国政府停摆让局势进一步复杂化，相关经济数据发布延迟，令美联储难以明确经济走向。这导致 在12月9日至10日的会议前，政策制定者立场固化且分歧严重：一方认为需进一步降息以扶持就业市 场，另一方则担忧通胀仍处高位，降息风险过大。 无论最终结果如何，本月会议大概率将出现多张反对票。在美联储利率制定机构——联邦公开市场委员 会（FOMC）的12位投票委员中，多达5人已对进一步降息表示反对或质疑，而理事会的3位核心成员则 支持降息。 "你可能会看到很长一段时间以来，'群体思维'最少的一次会议，"美联储理事沃勒上月表示。金融市场 预计美联储将批准又一次25个基点的降息，若果真如此，12月会议可能出现3张及以上反对票。FOMC 上一次出现3张及以上反对票还是在2019年，自1990 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with a focus on balancing inflation control and employment stability, likened to bargaining in a market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the risk of "non-linear" deterioration in the job market, suggesting that current stability could quickly change [2]. - Daly described the current state as a "low hiring, low firing" balance, which is precarious and requires preventive measures despite inflation not being fully controlled [2][12]. - The ongoing debate within the Fed about interest rate cuts reflects a deeper struggle among various economic forces [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative tools for retail investors to understand market dynamics, similar to how Daly uses data to assess economic trends [2][12]. - Historical examples of stocks that experienced prolonged consolidation before significant price movements illustrate the hidden market dynamics at play [5][12]. - The presence of "hot money" signals in stock movements can indicate potential market shifts, suggesting that investors should pay attention to underlying capital flows rather than surface price changes [12][13]. Group 3: Behavioral Finance Insights - Daly's comments on groupthink highlight the risks of consensus in market sentiment, where widespread bullishness may signal caution [8][11]. - The concept of "anchoring effect" in behavioral finance suggests that investors often misinterpret price fluctuations, overlooking the underlying capital movements [11]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to utilize tools and maintain patience in the face of uncertainty, focusing on current risks rather than future uncertainties [13]. - Monitoring the activity of both retail and institutional investors can provide insights into potential market movements, indicating when to start paying attention to emerging trends [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Anticipation of increased market volatility as the December FOMC meeting approaches, with a clear message that only those equipped with advanced tools will navigate this environment effectively [14][15]. - Understanding the real movements of capital behind stock price fluctuations is crucial for making informed investment decisions [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with some members signaling support for interest rate cuts while others advocate for maintaining current rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams has indicated support for a rate cut, which has increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with futures showing a probability rise from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, leading to a near-even split among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with five members favoring no rate change [1][2]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [2]. - The recent volatility in rate cut probabilities has disrupted market assessments of future interest rate directions, challenging the Fed's historical emphasis on consensus decision-making [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - Dissenting votes, previously rare during Powell's tenure, have notably increased this year, with no unanimous decisions since June [5]. - Research indicates that a low number of dissenting votes can convey decision-making confidence, while critics argue it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [5]. - Notably, two Fed governors voted against maintaining rates in July, marking the first time in 32 years that two governors opposed the chair's decision [5]. Group 4: Cautious Stance Among Policymakers - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing concerns similar to those of Kansas City Fed President George, with five of the 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain rates in December [7]. - Formerly dovish officials are also hinting at a preference for keeping rates unchanged, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating he would dissent if he strongly disagreed with the majority [8]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The upcoming December decision is shaping up to be one of the closest votes in years, with some economists believing Williams' recent comments have solidified the case for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain [9]. - Dallas Fed President Logan noted the inherent uncertainty in macroeconomic and monetary policy decisions, emphasizing the challenge policymakers face in understanding the current economic landscape [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with some members signaling support for interest rate cuts while others advocate for maintaining current rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams has indicated support for a rate cut, which has increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with futures showing a probability rise from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, leading to a near-even split among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with 5 members favoring no rate change [1][4]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [2]. - The recent volatility in rate cut probabilities has disrupted market assessments of future interest rate directions, challenging the Fed's historical emphasis on consensus decision-making [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - The number of dissenting votes has notably increased this year, with no unanimous decisions since June, contrasting with the previously rare occurrence of dissent during Powell's tenure [3]. - Critics argue that a low number of dissenting votes can indicate decision-making confidence, while others warn it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [3]. - Recent dissenting votes include two Fed governors opposing the decision to maintain rates, marking a significant shift in the voting landscape [3]. Group 4: Cautious Stance Among Policymakers - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing caution regarding monetary policy, with 5 out of 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain rates in December [4]. - Formerly dovish officials, like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, have suggested they may dissent if their views diverge significantly from the majority, indicating a healthy debate within the committee [5]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The upcoming December decision is shaping up to be one of the closest votes in years, with some economists believing Williams' recent comments have solidified expectations for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain [5][6]. - The general sentiment among policymakers is that uncertainty is a common characteristic of macroeconomic and monetary policy decision-making, complicating the ability to gauge the current economic landscape [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with differing opinions among voting committee members regarding interest rate decisions, leading to increased market speculation about potential rate cuts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams signaled support for a rate cut, which has raised expectations in the market, with the probability of a rate cut increasing from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, while five out of twelve voting members have expressed a preference to keep rates unchanged, indicating a nearly even split [1][6]. - The increase in dissenting votes this year is notable, as no policy decision has received unanimous approval since June [6][12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Investors are shifting focus from the overall consensus of the Federal Reserve to the individual voting tendencies of policymakers, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the December decision is heightened, with some analysts suggesting it could be a "coin toss" situation due to the lack of clarity in economic conditions [15]. Group 3: Perspectives from Economists - Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, noted that Powell's silence allows committee members to express their views, which is beneficial for healthy debate [5]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has not voted dissentingly in three years, indicated he would not hesitate to do so if he strongly disagrees with the majority [14]. - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized the inherent uncertainty in macroeconomic and monetary policy decisions, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with members showing differing stances on interest rate decisions, particularly regarding potential rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams signaled support for a rate cut, which increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with the probability rising from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, while 5 out of 12 voting members have expressed a preference to keep rates unchanged, indicating a nearly even split among policymakers [1]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting the recent volatility in rate cut expectations [2]. - The traditional consensus decision-making model of the Fed, which has been a hallmark since Powell took over in 2018, is now being tested [2]. - Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, noted that Powell's silence allows each committee member to express their views, which is beneficial for healthy debate [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - The number of dissenting votes has significantly increased this year, breaking records during Powell's tenure, with no unanimous decisions since June [3]. - Research indicates that low dissent levels can convey decision-making confidence, while critics argue that it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [3]. - Fed Governor Waller acknowledged the increase in dissenting votes as a sign of reduced groupthink, emphasizing the importance of diverse opinions in decision-making [3]. Group 4: Cautious Stance from Doves - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing caution, with 5 out of 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain current rates next month [4]. - Fed Governor Barr stated the need for careful consideration of monetary policy, reflecting a shift among previously dovish members [4]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has not voted dissentingly in three years, indicated he would do so if necessary, highlighting a willingness to diverge from consensus [4][5]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The decision for December is becoming one of the closest votes in years, with uncertainty prevailing in macroeconomic and monetary policy contexts [6]. - Some economists believe Williams' recent comments have solidified expectations for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain, suggesting a 50-50 chance for the outcome [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent statements made by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, emphasizing the need for another interest rate cut in December due to a weak labor market and its impact on middle and low-income consumers [5][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, citing clear signs of labor market weakness and the current core inflation being close to the FOMC target [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in the previous month, reflecting ongoing concerns about the labor market [6][7]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from nearly 100% to about 40% due to hawkish comments from other Fed officials [6]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Waller highlights the negative impact of high mortgage and auto loan rates on households, indicating that optimism around AI-driven stock price increases has not translated into job growth [5][6]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for September, delayed due to the federal government shutdown, is expected to provide further insights into the labor market [5]. Group 3: Divergence Among Policymakers - There is a growing divide among Federal Reserve policymakers, with some warning about persistent inflation risks while others focus on employment risks [6][8]. - Waller's comments reflect a departure from groupthink within the FOMC, emphasizing the importance of diverse viewpoints in policy discussions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran has emerged as a distinctive voice in economic policy, challenging traditional economic theories and practices, particularly in monetary policy, through his roles at the Federal Reserve and the White House Council of Economic Advisers [1][3]. Group 1: Career Background - Miran's unconventional career path includes a transition from biochemistry at Boston University to deep economic thought, reflecting a unique mindset [3]. - He served as a senior advisor at the Treasury during the Trump administration, contributing to significant economic policies like the CARES Act [3]. - After leaving the corporate sector, he joined the Manhattan Institute, focusing on topics such as the return of U.S. manufacturing and global trade restructuring, becoming a key advisor in Trump's economic policy [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - At the September 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, Miran proposed a 50 basis point interest rate cut, contrasting with the 25 basis point cut supported by other members [4]. - He argues that the current tight monetary policy is hindering economic recovery, advocating for a federal funds rate closer to 2% instead of the current level [4]. - Miran's stance reflects a deep understanding of the U.S. economic situation, emphasizing that high interest rates are suppressing economic growth and credit market activity [4]. Group 3: Industrial Policy - Miran advocates for gradually increasing tariffs and lowering the dollar's exchange rate to promote the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and reduce trade deficits [4]. - He believes that the U.S. has a unique advantage in the global trade system, and tariff policies can effectively adjust trade structures and optimize economic layouts [4]. - Despite criticism from some economists, this approach has gained traction as a mainstream economic policy under the Trump administration [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Reform - Miran's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve challenge existing governance structures, which he believes are too closed and lead to "groupthink" [4]. - Suggested reforms include allowing the President to dismiss the Fed Chair and board members at any time, shortening board terms, and increasing legislative oversight of the Fed's budget [4]. - While some scholars criticize these proposals for potentially undermining the Fed's independence, they reflect Miran's desire for a more flexible and responsive decision-making process to address complex economic challenges [4]. Group 5: Controversy and Criticism - Miran's views have not been universally accepted, facing strong opposition from economists like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who critiques his tariff and monetary policies [5]. - Krugman argues that Miran's policy framework is controversial and may not succeed in practice [5]. - Nonetheless, Miran's perspectives provide a new lens on U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding the balance between globalization and domestic economic interests, challenging traditional free trade notions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a more thoughtful selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair, focusing on improving the Fed's overall performance and accountability rather than short-term market considerations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Challenges - President Trump has called for significant cuts to the federal funds rate to stimulate economic activity, which could lead to excessive inflationary monetary policy and increase borrowing costs for the government, households, and businesses [1]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence in setting monetary policy may undermine confidence in U.S. financial markets and further depress the dollar's value [1]. - The Fed has made mistakes under Powell's leadership, resulting in high inflation and unclear monetary policy strategies [1][2]. Group 2: Key Policy Issues for the Next Chair - The dual mandate of the Fed—ensuring price stability and full employment—has been criticized, particularly regarding the Fed's inflation bias in 2021 and 2022, raising questions about the appropriate weighting of inflation and employment [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet has expanded significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, leading to questions about the necessary size and composition of the balance sheet for effective monetary policy [2]. - Financial regulation reforms are needed to avoid costly pressures in the U.S. Treasury market, and the Fed must distinguish its regulatory activities from monetary policy to maintain independence [2][3]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - The Fed should embrace diverse economic viewpoints to better address the evolving economic landscape and avoid groupthink tendencies that can lead to policy errors [3]. - The selection process for Fed officials should prioritize knowledge and experience diversity rather than political motivations, ensuring a broader range of perspectives [3]. - The next Fed Chair should possess knowledge of monetary policy and financial regulation, independent judgment, and an openness to new ideas that can enhance institutional performance and accountability [3].