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突然,大跌!发生了什么?
券商中国· 2025-02-28 10:11
Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices has sparked widespread discussion, with the market experiencing a notable decline after reaching historical highs earlier in the week [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices have seen a continuous decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping over 1% and spot gold falling nearly 0.9%. As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures were down 0.83% at $2871.8 per ounce. The previous day, spot gold and COMEX futures had declines of 1.36% and 1.46%, respectively [2][4]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also fell sharply, with a notable drop of 9 yuan per gram in just three days, indicating a total decline of 18 yuan per gram [2]. Market Influences - The cumulative decline in international gold prices this week has exceeded 2%, potentially marking the first weekly drop since 2025. This decline is primarily attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar and profit-taking activities [2][4]. - The recent surge in the US dollar has diminished the appeal of gold for foreign investors, as gold is priced in dollars. This has contributed to the recent price adjustments following the historical highs reached earlier in the week [7][8]. Bull Market Status - The current bull market for gold, which began in November 2022 with prices around $1629 per ounce, saw a peak of $2956 per ounce, representing an increase of 81%. Even after recent corrections, the price remains over 75% higher than the starting point [10][11]. - There are ongoing discussions regarding whether the bull market has ended, with factors such as increasing geopolitical risks and US tariff policies influencing market sentiment [11][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while gold prices have paused their rapid ascent, several favorable factors may support a relative high-level fluctuation. These include potential downward movement in dollar interest rates and ongoing volatility in US equities, which may bolster safe-haven demand for gold [14]. - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as a hawkish stance could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a dovish approach may provide strong upward momentum for gold prices [14].