Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Shock" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From July, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold - drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Although recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1] Group 3: Summary of Data 1. Price Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 1.40% to $16.24, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.53% to $67.84. Among domestic spot prices, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5980 yuan, Kunming sugar decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.12% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton increased by 0.33% to 15100 yuan [3] 2. Spread Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 9.52% to 46, SR05 - 09 increased by 6.78% to - 110, SR09 - 01 decreased by 15.79% to 64, CF01 - 05 increased by 33.33% to 40, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 3.51% to - 295. The basis of sugar 01 decreased by 6.63% to 183, sugar 05 decreased by 3.78% to 229, sugar 09 decreased by 0.83% to 119, cotton 01 increased by 1.19% to 1109, cotton 05 increased by 2.04% to 1149, and cotton 09 increased by 1.67% to 1404 [3] 3. Import Price and Profit Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.31% to 79.15, and the sugar import profit increased by 2.79% to 1565 [3] 4. Option Information - For options, the implied volatility of SR601C5700 is 0.0832 with a futures underlying of SR601 and a historical volatility of 6.18; the implied volatility of SR601P5700 is 0.084. The implied volatility of CF601C14200 is 0.1094 with a futures underlying of CF601 and a historical volatility of 5.61; the implied volatility of CF601P14200 is 0.1099 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16931, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [3] Group 4: Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [8]

Group 1: Sugar Core View - The fundamentals of sugar are mixed. In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume in the first half of July increased by 14.77% year-on-year, and the sugar production ratio rose to a high of 53.68, indicating significant supply pressure. However, low yields and sugar content in the sugarcane regions have led some institutions to lower their production forecasts for Brazil. In the domestic market, the concentrated arrival of imported sugar and the loosening of refined sugar prices have put pressure on the spot market. Nevertheless, the seasonal recovery of sugar consumption and improved procurement by traders have provided support. In the medium to long term, the expected bumper harvest in the Northern Hemisphere's new season remains unchanged, and the global loose supply pattern will continue to limit the upside potential [3]. Price and Spread Information - On August 13, 2025, SR01 closed at 5657 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.52%; SR03 closed at 5628 with a daily increase of 0.86% and a weekly increase of 0.52%; SR05 closed at 5606 with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly increase of 0.68%; SR07 closed at 5600 with a daily increase of 0.68% and a weekly increase of 0.7%; SR09 closed at 5722 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 0.69%; SR11 closed at 5665 with a daily increase of 0.75% and a weekly increase of 0.35%. SB closed at 16.95 with a daily increase of 2.48% and a weekly increase of 5.67%; W closed at 486.8 with a daily increase of 2.27% and a weekly increase of 5.23% [4]. - The sugar basis shows different changes. For example, on August 12, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 352, with a daily decrease of 35 and a weekly decrease of 10; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 207, with a daily decrease of 45 and a weekly decrease of 20 [11]. - The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar have increased. On August 13, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar was 4476, with a daily increase of 55 and a weekly increase of 43; the out - of - quota price was 5686, with a daily increase of 72 and a weekly increase of 56. The in - quota price of Thai sugar was 4564, with a daily increase of 55 and a weekly increase of 56; the out - of - quota price was 5801, with a daily increase of 72 and a weekly increase of 73 [14]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton provides strong support for cotton prices. However, the downstream sales have not yet recovered, so the short - term driving force for cotton prices is insufficient, and the price may remain volatile. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, the downstream's willingness to stock up is expected to improve marginally, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking situation and the adjustment of the USDA supply - demand forecast report this week [16]. Price and Spread Information - On August 13, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 14130, up 150 or 1.07%; Cotton 05 closed at 14090, up 180 or 1.29%; Cotton 09 closed at 13830, up 95 or 0.69%. Yarn 01 closed at 20165, up 185 or 0.93%; Yarn 05 closed at 20345, up 275 or 1.37%; Yarn 09 closed at 20115, up 120 or 0.6% [17]. - The cotton basis was 1197, down 284; Cotton 01 - 05 was 70, up 20; Cotton 05 - 09 was 175, up 25; Cotton 09 - 01 was - 245, down 45; the flower - yarn spread was 5985, down 30; the domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1775, down 1; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 582, down 15 [18]. Group 3: Red Dates Core View - Based on last year's bumper harvest, the output of grey dates in the new season has decreased year - on - year and may be lower than normal, but the extent of the reduction is difficult to determine, leading to significant market divergence. As the festival peak season approaches, downstream buyers will start to stock up gradually, and combined with the fermentation of the production - reduction sentiment, the short - term price trend of red dates may be strong. However, due to the high inventory of old dates and the unclear production, it is not advisable to chase the high price [21]. Group 4: Apples Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared of inventory. For the new - season apples, the paper - bag Gala apples have started to be listed, and the prices are good [26]. Price Information - On August 13, 2025, AP01 closed at 7986 with a daily increase of 0%, and a weekly increase of 1.68%; AP03 closed at 7904 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 1.4%; AP04 closed at 7952 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a weekly increase of 1.49%; AP05 closed at 7981 with a daily decrease of 0.21% and a weekly increase of 0.96%; AP10 closed at 8158 with a daily decrease of 0.24% and a weekly increase of 3.07%; AP11 closed at 7894 with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 2.31%; AP12 closed at 7926 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly increase of 1.89% [27]. - The spot prices of different apple varieties remained stable on that day. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8, with a daily and weekly increase of 0% [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Cotton: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a slightly upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [1] - Sugar: Expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - **Cotton**: Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with a high probability of a September interest rate cut and potentially three cuts this year, supporting US cotton prices. Domestically, the 09 contract's position reduction has slowed, and the position and position/warehouse receipt ratio are relatively high. The current low commercial cotton inventory (a decrease of over 600,000 tons in July) provides support for cotton prices. The 01 contract faces the pressure of expected high new - cotton yields and low opening prices, but the 2025/26 domestic cotton supply - demand pattern has no major contradictions, and the current cotton price is at a relatively low level [1] - **Sugar**: Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production has dropped below 150,000 tons, a record low in over 100 years. The spot sugar market has average transactions and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. On the international front, the raw sugar price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to buying support, and with low Brazilian inventories, there is less willingness for prices to hit new lows. In the domestic market, there is a lack of new drivers near the previous lows, so short - term narrow - range fluctuations are expected [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE US cotton rose 0.36% to 66.84 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.15% to 13,680 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 14,595 lots to 246,200 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Class 3128B was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [1] - For sugar, Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production was below 150,000 tons. The Guangxi sugar - making group's quote was 5,900 - 5,980 yuan per ton, with only Nanhua raising the price by 10 yuan per ton; the Yunnan sugar - making group's quote was 5,740 - 5,780 yuan per ton, unchanged; the processing sugar factory's mainstream quote was 6,000 - 6,500 yuan per ton, with most prices adjusting by 10 - 150 yuan per ton, up or down [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan, down 40 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,281 yuan, down 257 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 106 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main - contract basis was 397 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning spot price was 5,960 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - On August 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,172, down 80 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 282 [3] - On August 11, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 15,089 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On August 11, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.7, down 0.1; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, up 0.3; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the sugar spot prices were 5,960 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and 5,970 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,240, down 305 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4] 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented including those showing cotton and sugar's main - contract closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17] 5. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures such as urea and soda - ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "Oscillating Upward" [1] - The investment rating for sugar is "Range-Bound with an Uptrend" [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.41% to 68.84 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 2.19% to 14,250 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 19,226 lots to 587,600 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan. Globally, the new - year cotton supply - demand is relatively loose, and the U.S. cotton inventory - to - sales ratio is high. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has moved up slightly, with the main contract's open interest increasing rapidly and the 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads strengthening. Currently, low cotton inventory and short - term weather factors are driving the price, but the strong expectation of a cotton bumper harvest and limited short - term demand improvement will restrict the upside. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may still have some upside space and large volatility. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage space of the 09 contract. A strategy of selling high - priced out - of - the - money call options and buying low - priced out - of - the - money put options can be considered [1] - **Sugar**: In June 2025, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%, and the cumulative production from January to June was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups and some processing sugar factories have minor adjustments. The raw sugar price rose due to the rumor of a U.S. cola formula change, but there is no obvious short - term market driver. In the domestic market, the domestic sugar price quotes are slightly loose, the trading volume is average, the processing sugar factories' operating rate is high, and the market is highly concerned about the June import data. The market is treated as range - bound with an uptrend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is 290, up 165; the main contract basis is 1,104, down 178. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,316 yuan per ton, up 101, and the national spot price is 15,354 yuan per ton, up 82 [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 169, up 3; the main contract basis is 252, down 20. The Nanning spot price is 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 17, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,585, down 58 from the previous day, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,316 yuan per ton, Henan 15,411 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,302 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,617 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, down 0.1, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3] - **Sugar**: On July 17, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged at 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,080 yuan per ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 21,857, down 432 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of the main contracts, showing the historical data trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][14] 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. ICE US cotton rose 0.66% to 68.57 cents/pound on Tuesday, while CF509 decreased 0.36% to 13,850 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest dropped by 11,044 lots to 546,700 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang increased by 4 yuan/ton to 15,286 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B rose by 7 yuan/ton to 15,302 yuan/ton. With the US CPI data in line with expectations and core CPI lower than expected, the market anticipates two interest rate cuts this year, with the next one likely in September. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined slightly, but the night session strengthened. The previous factors supporting the cotton price increase - weather and low inventory - have limited sustainability. With strong expectations of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, the cotton price may fluctuate in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [1]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. In the second half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a 12.86% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing volume to 42.706 million tons, a decrease in ATR, an increase in the sugar - making ratio, and significant year - on - year decreases in ethanol and sugar production. Domestic sugar prices showed mixed trends, with some price adjustments. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the domestic sugar market has a large divergence between bulls and bears, with import pressure on the upside and basis and raw sugar support on the downside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton rose 0.66%, CF509 fell 0.36%. The main contract's open interest decreased. Xinjiang cotton arrival price and the China Cotton Price Index increased. US CPI data met expectations, and the market anticipates interest rate cuts. Domestically, the futures price declined slightly during the day and strengthened at night. The factors supporting the price increase have limited sustainability, and the new cotton harvest is expected to be good with weak demand [1]. - **Sugar**: In the second half of June, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume, ATR, ethanol, and sugar production decreased year - on - year, while the sugar - making ratio increased. Domestic sugar prices had different trends, with some adjustments. The Brazilian production is uncertain, and the domestic market has a large divergence between bulls and bears [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The main contract basis was 1452 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, and the national spot price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 173 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 288 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The Nanning spot price was 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Market Information - On July 15, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 91 to 9716, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - On July 15, the sugar spot prices in Nanning were unchanged, and those in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 114 to 22,602, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures. She has won multiple honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title [21].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.22% to 13,875 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 2,175 lots to 557,700 lots. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15,282 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 15,295 yuan per ton, up 29 yuan. The USDA July report increased the global cotton production forecast by 311,000 tons, mainly from China and the U.S. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to exceed consumption, and there is still room for production increase. In the domestic market, the factors supporting the cotton price increase are not sustainable. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang increased by over 8% in 2025, and the weather is suitable with a high probability of a good harvest. Although the commercial inventory is low, there is no shortage worry due to sufficient state - reserve and potential quota increase. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price may rise, but the new - year's supply - demand pattern restricts the increase, and the 09 contract may perform better than the 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: The USDA reported that the U.S. 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons, with beet sugar at 5.097 million short tons and cane sugar at 4.098 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated at 13.5%. The spot sugar prices in Guangxi and Yunnan were stable, and some processing sugar mills raised the price by 10 yuan per ton. Brazilian bi - weekly sugar production was lower than expected, but the sugar price still declined due to concerns about future supply. In the domestic market, Yunnan and processing sugar sold well, but the concern about imported sugar pressure remained. The futures price rebounded and then followed the raw sugar decline, and it should be treated with a short - term oscillatory view, with attention to June import data [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: Analyzed international and domestic market conditions, including price changes, production forecasts, and supply - demand factors, and concluded that the short - term price may rise but is restricted by the new - year's supply - demand pattern [2]. - **Sugar**: Presented U.S. production forecasts, domestic and international price information, and supply - demand concerns, and suggested a short - term oscillatory view [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was 60, down 5; the main - contract basis was 1,420, up 39; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,282, up 19, and the national spot price was 15,295, up 29 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 184, up 7; the main - contract basis was 283, down 7; the Nanning spot price was 6,060, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100, unchanged [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 43 to 9,807, with 216 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 28 to 22,716, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts of cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, were presented, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.03% to 67.76 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.69% to 13,865 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 4,373 lots to 551,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,175 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,196 yuan per ton, also up 12 yuan. The macro - level disturbance in the international market is limited, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates between 97 - 98, with no directional drive for U.S. cotton. The market is waiting for the USDA July report, and there is an expectation of an increase in global cotton production including that of the U.S. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton broke through the 13,900 yuan per ton mark, and its center of gravity is rising. Low imports and low inventories are the main supports, and positions are gradually increasing. Market sentiment is boosting the cotton price. In the future, a bumper harvest of new cotton is likely, and there is no concern about cotton shortage. The expectation of significant improvement in the demand side is weak. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may still break through upwards, but considering the future supply - demand pattern, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies can be considered at high prices [2]. - For sugar, the Philippine Sugar Regulatory Authority approved the import of 424,000 tons of reserve sugar from July to November 2025. The spot prices of sugar in some regions were adjusted upwards. Brazilian sugar maintains a high sugar - making ratio, but the output is lower year - on - year due to the quality of sugarcane, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Affected by the market sentiment rebound, sugar prices are also boosted. The short - term sugar price is seen as a rebound. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity to buy out - of - the - money put options and patiently wait for the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 55 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,331 yuan, down 23 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,175 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,196 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 175 yuan, up 11 yuan; the main contract basis is 285 yuan, down 11 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 6,050 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and in Liuzhou is 6,090 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan [3]. 2. Market Information - On July 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,882, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day, with 244 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 10, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 15,175 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,229 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,155 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,429 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On July 10, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 29.9, up 0.1; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 48.6, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 33.5, unchanged [4]. - On July 10, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,050 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,090 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan [4]. - On July 10, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 22,934, a decrease of 53 from the previous trading day, with 106 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of sugar [7][15][18]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions increasing by 3,515 to 546,800. In the international market, the overall drivers are limited recently, and the U.S. cotton planted area exceeds expectations with good growth. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton showed a V - shaped trend and closed slightly higher. Considering low imports, low inventories, and weather disturbances on the one hand, and new - cotton high - yield expectations and weak demand during the off - season on the other hand, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound, with the 09 contract likely to perform better than 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: Platts expects a 9.7% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June, and a 9.8% decrease in sugar production. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is accelerating inventory clearance. The spot price of sugar has some adjustments, and the futures price of raw sugar rebounded due to the expected decline in Brazil's bi - weekly production. The market should focus on the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market has limited drivers, with the U.S. cotton planted area exceeding expectations and good growth. The domestic market has both upward and downward drivers but with limited strength. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to range - bound, and the 09 contract may be better than 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production are expected to decline. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is clearing inventory, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 45 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,354 yuan, down 54 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,163 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 164 yuan, up 9 yuan; the main - contract basis is 296 yuan, down 37 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,040 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,075 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 9, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 39 to 9,932, and the effective forecasts were 266. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth loads and inventories also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 9, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou changed, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 105 to 22,987, with 106 effective forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. International market has limited overall drivers, with the US cotton sown area exceeding expectations and good growth conditions. In the domestic market, low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances support cotton prices, while new - cotton harvest expectations and weak demand in the off - season limit upward movement [2]. - Sugar is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. Brazilian sugar exports in the first week of July decreased by 34.63% year - on - year. The international raw sugar market lacks new drivers, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage with ample supply and weak price rebounds, but short - term basis support remains [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.84% to 67.32 cents/pound, CF509 decreased 0.07% to 13785 yuan/ton, and the main - contract positions decreased by 617 to 543,200 hands. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 677,300 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease year - on - year. The daily export volume was 169,300 tons. Domestic sugar - making groups and processing plants lowered their quotes. The international raw sugar market awaits macro guidance and northern - hemisphere yield estimates, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 25 (unchanged), the main - contract basis was 1408 (down 33), the Xinjiang spot price was 15175 yuan/ton (down 1), and the national spot price was 15193 yuan/ton (down 8) [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 155 (down 5), the main - contract basis was 333 (down 3), the Nanning spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), and the Liuzhou spot price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10) [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 8, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68 to 9971, with 282 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 51.3, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.7. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 48.7, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 33.5 [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 8, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), the Liuzhou price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10), the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 312 to 23092, and there were 106 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts for cotton and sugar are presented, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, with data from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on July 8, 2025, ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.88% to 67.86 cents per pound, and CF509 fell by 0.22% to 13,760 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2,264 lots to 543,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,176 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,201 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, with the U.S. cotton price falling after the holiday. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price is mainly range - bound with limited upward drive. The previous drivers of the upward trend were low inventory and weather disturbances, but now there is a strong expectation of a good cotton harvest, and the operating load of downstream textile enterprises is relatively low. It is expected that the commercial cotton inventory at the end of September will be relatively healthy, and the cotton price lacks continuous upward drive. Overall, the short - term cotton price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [1]. - For sugar, Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June 2025, an increase of 157,300 tons or 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased by 20 - 30 yuan per ton, and in Yunnan by 10 yuan per ton. The mainstream quotation of sugar refineries also decreased. Brazil's sugar exports remained high in June, and China is one of the important buyers. It is expected that China's sugar imports will remain high in July and August. With the arrival of imported sugar, the spot sugar price is under slight pressure. More attention should be paid to the quotation of refined sugar, which will have a greater influence in the future. The main futures contract is currently considered to be in a weak - range - bound situation, but it is not recommended to continue to short the far - month contracts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 0 (unchanged), the main contract basis is 1,441 yuan (up 21 yuan). The arrival price in Xinjiang is 15,176 yuan per ton (up 6 yuan), and the national price is 15,201 yuan per ton (up 1 yuan) [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 160 yuan (down 22 yuan), the main contract basis is 336 yuan (down 5 yuan). The spot price in Nanning is 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou is 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,039 (down 28), and the valid forecast was 260. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,176 yuan per ton, Henan 15,273 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,172 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,420 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.4 (down 0.4), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6 (up 0.6), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.8 (unchanged), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4 (up 0.1) [3]. - **Sugar**: On July 7, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou was 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan). The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 23,404 (down 20), and the valid forecast was 106 [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 9 - 1 spread, the internal - external price difference under the 1% tariff quota, the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the price index [6][9][11][14][17].