Core Viewpoint - The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan has decided to maintain the discount rate at 9.25% to ensure price stability and balance in currency supply amid rising inflation and economic growth [1] Economic Indicators - The cumulative inflation rate since the beginning of the year has reached 5%, with an annualized inflation rate of 9.4% [1] - Current inflation is primarily influenced by external factors such as global food price fluctuations, increased domestic demand, and seasonal changes in food prices [1] - Adjustments in electricity prices have also contributed to the rising inflation levels [1] Economic Growth - The economy of Kyrgyzstan is experiencing rapid growth, with a GDP growth rate of 11.5% for the period from January to July 2025 [1] - Key sectors driving this growth include industry, construction, and services [1] - Increased consumer demand is supported by rising household incomes, remittances, and the expansion of bank consumer credit [1] Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy aims to ensure medium to short-term price stability and maintain the purchasing power of the national currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a probability of 89.6% according to market data [2][10]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Risks - Alberto G. Musalem, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, indicated that the U.S. labor market faces increasing downside risks, particularly due to a weak real estate market [4]. - Musalem expects the labor market to gradually cool while remaining close to full employment, with recent data reinforcing his concerns about labor market risks [5]. - He anticipates that tariffs will impact the economy over the next two to three quarters, after which their effect on inflation will diminish, projecting inflation to converge towards 2% by the second half of 2026 [6]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Christopher J. Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, expressed support for a rate cut at the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts may follow depending on economic data [8]. - Waller noted that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has stabilized and emphasized that the Fed can adjust the pace of rate cuts based on incoming data [8]. - Market expectations indicate a 10.4% chance of maintaining rates in September, while cumulative cuts of 25 and 50 basis points have probabilities of 47.3% and 47.9%, respectively, for October [10]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Future Rate Cuts - There is a consensus that the Fed will likely cut rates this year, but opinions vary on the number of cuts. Some analysts predict 5 to 6 cuts, while others, like HSBC's chief economist, suggest a maximum of 3 cuts post-September [11]. - Ellen Zentner from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management stated that the Fed has opened the door for rate cuts, but the extent will depend on whether labor market weakness poses a greater risk than rising inflation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a probability of 89.6% according to market data [1][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Alberto G. Musalem, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, indicated that the U.S. labor market faces increasing downside risks, particularly due to a weak real estate market [3]. - Musalem noted that the current policy interest rate is moderately restrictive and is consistent with a fully employed labor market, being nearly one percentage point above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3]. - He anticipates a gradual cooling of the labor market while remaining close to full employment, with recent data increasing concerns about labor market downside risks [3]. - Musalem expects tariffs to impact the economy over the next two to three quarters, after which their effect on inflation will diminish, predicting inflation will converge towards 2% by the second half of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Christopher J. Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, expressed support for a rate cut at the next meeting, suggesting multiple cuts may follow depending on economic data [5]. - Waller emphasized that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized and reiterated the need for flexibility in the pace of rate cuts based on economic performance [5]. - He projected that inflation may experience slight fluctuations but will not be persistent, expecting it to approach the 2% long-term target within six months [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market consensus indicates a strong likelihood of a rate cut in September, with discussions shifting towards the number of potential cuts thereafter [9]. - HSBC's Chief Asia Economist, Fan Limin, predicts a 25 basis point cut in September but cautions that strong employment data could delay this decision [9]. - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist, Ellen Zentner, noted that the Fed is open to rate cuts, with the extent depending on whether labor market weakness poses a greater risk than rising inflation [9].

Group 1 - The UK services sector experienced its largest growth in over a year, with the S&P Global UK Services PMI rising from 51.8 in July to 54.2 in August, the highest level since April 2024 [1] - The composite PMI, which includes the revised manufacturing PMI, increased from 51.5 in July to 53.5 in August, reaching a 12-month high [1] - The increase in new business within the services sector was the largest monthly rise since March 2021, indicating stronger consumer demand and the first growth in exports since April [2] Group 2 - Despite the positive growth, businesses remain concerned about potential tax increases in the upcoming autumn budget, which could impact demand and costs [1][2] - Employment data from the PMI indicates a continuous decline for 11 months, marking the longest period of job cuts since 2008-2010, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - The rise in costs for businesses was noted as the largest increase in three months, contributing to ongoing concerns about government policy uncertainty [2]

Core Insights - Eurozone inflation rate for August is reported at 2.1%, up from 2.0% in July, indicating a return above the European Central Bank's medium-term target level [1] - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.2%, service prices rose by 3.1%, while non-energy industrial goods prices saw a 0.8% increase, and energy prices decreased by 1.9% [1] - Core inflation, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remained stable at 2.3% compared to July [1] Country-Specific Data - Inflation rates for major EU economies in August are as follows: Germany at 2.1%, France at 0.8%, Italy at 1.7%, and Spain at 2.7% [1] Economic Outlook - The chief economist of ING, Bert Colijn, highlights that global economic risks remain significant, and inflation volatility risks persist; however, current data suggests inflation will stay near the ECB's 2% target [1] - The European Central Bank announced on July 24 that it would maintain the three key interest rates for the Eurozone, marking the first pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year [1]

Core Insights - Eurozone inflation rate for August is reported at 2.1%, up from 2.0% in July, indicating a return above the European Central Bank's medium-term target level [1] - Core inflation, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remains steady at 2.3% for August, unchanged from July [1] Inflation Details - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.2% year-on-year in August - Service prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year - Non-energy industrial goods prices saw a rise of 0.8% - Energy prices decreased by 1.9% [1] Country-Specific Inflation Rates - Germany's inflation rate stands at 2.1% - France's inflation rate is at 0.8% - Italy's inflation rate is recorded at 1.7% - Spain's inflation rate is at 2.7% [1] Economic Outlook - Chief economist at ING, Bert Colijn, highlights that global economic risks remain significant, and inflation volatility risks persist - Current data suggests inflation will remain close to the European Central Bank's 2% target level [1] Central Bank Policy - The European Central Bank announced on July 24 to maintain the three key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in interest rate cuts since June of the previous year [1]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has seen a slight decline, currently trading around 1.16, with a drop of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1706 [1] - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazaks indicated that the ECB has entered a new phase of monetary policy, shifting focus from active economic intervention to continuous monitoring of economic dynamics [1] - Kazaks noted that the current inflation rate is close to the 2% target, and recent economic data does not show significant deviation from the June quarterly forecast, suggesting no need for further rate cuts at this time [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the euro against the US dollar has shown limited progress, with the weekly chart indicating that buyers are looking for entry points on dips [2] - The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at 1.1520, providing support for buying, despite losing upward momentum [2] - Momentum indicators have shown a shift but remain in positive territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, indicating no clear directional guidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD is facing downward pressure, hovering around the 1.3470 area, amid a mild recovery in dollar buying interest, with the July PCE inflation data aligning with market expectations, opening the door for a potential Fed rate cut in September [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is slightly below 50, indicating a weakening bullish momentum as GBP/USD falls below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 1.3490 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3460-1.3440 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 100-day and 200-day moving averages) and 1.3400-1.3390 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) [3]. - Resistance levels are seen at 1.3490-1.3500 (100-day moving average, static level), 1.3540 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), and 1.3600 (static level, round number) [3]. Economic Overview - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the Q2 GDP annualized growth rate to 3.3%, lower than the initial estimate of 3% and market expectations of 3.1% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased from 234,000 to 229,000, slightly better than the market expectation of 230,000 [5]. - The upcoming PCE price index data for July is anticipated to show an overall annual inflation rate stabilizing at 2.6%, with core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5].

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from Mingpai Jewelry remains unchanged at 1009 yuan per gram as of August 29, 2025, compared to the previous trading day [1] - The platinum price is not provided in the report, indicating a focus solely on gold pricing [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's Waller indicates that the underlying inflation rate is close to 2% when excluding temporary tariff impacts [2] - The policy interest rate is considered "moderately restrictive," expected to be 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above the neutral rate [2] - There is no expectation for a significant rate cut in September unless the August employment report shows substantial economic weakness while inflation remains well-controlled [2] - Waller expresses a stronger inclination towards a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3-6 months [2] - There is a noted weakening in labor demand, which poses risks to the labor market [2]

Core Insights - Wholesale electricity prices in Ireland fell by 10% in July, marking a 74% decrease since the peak in August 2022 [1] - The inflation rate in Ireland has decreased faster than expected, primarily due to falling energy prices, with the overall inflation rate at 1.7% in July, below the European Central Bank's target of 2% [1] - Ireland ranks as the third highest in the EU for electricity, gas, and fuel prices, exceeding the average by over 17% [1] Energy Prices - The peak wholesale electricity price reached nearly €400 per megawatt-hour in August 2022, a 195% increase from August 2021, while the average price in 2020 was approximately €38 per megawatt-hour [1] - Approximately half of Ireland's energy demand relies on imported natural gas, contributing to high energy prices [1] Producer Prices - As of July 2025, domestic producer prices for manufactured goods increased by 1% year-on-year, while export producer prices decreased by 3.9% [1] - Food producer prices rose by 4%, with the food, beverage, and tobacco index increasing by 2.9% [1] - Grocery price inflation surged to nearly 5%, almost three times the overall inflation rate, putting pressure on households [1]