摘要今日周四(12月4日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于950元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报953.20元/ 克，涨幅0.02%，最高触及958.52元/克，最低下探949.20元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向震荡走势。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 国内上海黄金t+d的关键支撑位处于950-980元/克，一旦该支撑位被有效跌破，后续价格或将下探至940 元/克。与此同时，其阻力位位于950-999元/克，只有价格成功站稳这一区间，才有可能缓解短期内的下 行压力。 当地时间周三，美国总统特朗普称，俄罗斯总统普京与美国特使维特科夫及特朗普顾问兼女婿库什纳在 克里姆林宫的会谈"相当不错""非常好"。两人逗留数小时后于凌晨离开，但未就结束俄乌冲突取得具体 突破，克宫高级官员会后表示"尚未找到妥协方案"。 特朗普援引特使电话汇报称，普京传递出"想结束战争、回归正常生活"的意愿，更倾向与美国贸易而非 持续损兵，且"非常想达成协议"。但他强调未来走向不明，称"跳探戈需两人"，并透露与乌克兰已 有"相当完善的方案"。 乌克兰官员表示，维特科夫周三与乌国家安全顾问乌梅罗夫通话通报会谈情况。白宫官员透露，维特科 夫和库什纳 ...

新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 黄金行情走势分析： 12月3日，黄金昨日开盘即承压回修调整，欧盘时段回撤4180附近后出现回弹，但晚盘时段在4230附近 再受阻，而随后一波快速下跌至4163附近，后半夜行情略有回弹，日线最终收得一带有下影线的阴线。 日线结构上来看，在周一高位十字星后，原本预期昨日行情有延续回修调整，行情实际走势也验证了调 整预期，下方刺破5日线，说明短线还是有技术上的调整需要的，但未触及10日线，且最终又收回到5日 线之上，这反映出当前市场情绪依然还是倾向于多头的，主要也还是受市场对美联储降息预期的影响。 预期短期内技术上的调整需求也还是在的，而基本面可能会继续激发多头热情，所以短期黄金走势可能 会呈现震荡状态，日内上方可关注昨日高点4230附近压力，下方则还是关注10日线4165附近争夺情况， 技术上不破10日线最好，但修整的时间过程一定还是得要有的。 结合小时图走势，隔夜下跌后拉升反弹，目前亚盘时段有延续，上方着重关注4220附近再 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to continue being a core asset with safe-haven and anti-inflation properties, influenced by complex factors including global monetary policy and asset flow dynamics, potentially driving prices to new highs in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Conditions - The global economy may face "high debt and low growth" pressures in 2026, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in global growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and U.S. growth dropping to 2.0% [1][3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with a fiscal deficit exceeding 6% of GDP, raising concerns about debt sustainability, which supports gold's value as a "no credit risk asset" [1][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be a key variable for gold prices in 2026, with expectations of a shift towards easing despite a projected increase in the median federal funds rate from 3.4% to 3.6% [3][4]. - The potential for a global liquidity resonance due to the Fed's easing cycle may lead to a shift of funds from low-yield assets to gold, reducing the holding costs of gold as a non-yielding asset [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to a restructuring of global order, with "de-dollarization" becoming a strategic choice for many central banks, increasing gold allocations [6][7]. - The rise of non-dollar currencies in global trade settlements may enhance gold's status as a sovereign currency and a safe-haven asset [6]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The structural imbalance between rigid demand growth and insufficient supply elasticity is expected to support gold prices in the long term, with central bank demand for gold remaining high [7][11]. - Central banks' gold holdings have increased from 16% to 24% of their foreign exchange reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue increasing their gold reserves [7][11]. Group 5: Market Sensitivity and Volatility - Gold prices are highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with potential price increases if the Fed's easing leads to overall market liquidity [12]. - Speculative trading can cause short-term volatility in gold prices, as seen in October 2025 when speculative positions led to a significant price drop [12]. Group 6: Price Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for gold prices in 2026 suggests a potential for "high-level fluctuations" with targets above $4,900 per ounce, and possibly challenging $6,100 per ounce under certain risk scenarios [15]. - Silver is expected to follow gold's performance, with a target of $65 per ounce, but with greater volatility due to its dual industrial and financial attributes [15].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures market is experiencing mixed results, with COMEX gold futures declining by 0.3% and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.41, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and varying industrial demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in gold prices indicates a weakening trust in the U.S. government and institutions [1]. - Martin Siegert from Baden-Württemberg Bank anticipates that the current gold trend will continue, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs as a key supporting factor [1]. - The World Gold Council reported a 6% increase in global gold ETF assets from $472 billion in September to $503 billion in October, with a significant monthly inflow of $82 billion in October, surpassing the average monthly inflow of $71 billion for the year [2]. Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs has identified gold as the most recommended commodity to go long on, with expectations that gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by late next year, driven by central bank purchases and declining interest rates [2].

来源：老黄说交易 今天黄金怎么看？ 老规矩先给各位老表，汇报一下目前的实时金价，国际黄金4153，沪金（2602）964.4，黄金（T+D)941.4,离岸人民币汇率7.0737。 原因是小时级别突破前高来到4173后，有明显背离。 加上昨天美国公布的当周初请失业金人数，好于预期，利空黄金，黄金乘势回落4136附近。 美盘开始后，强势止跌，快速拉回，看动能4173突破的概率高，但是昨晚却没有突破，形成小时级别双顶。 昨天早盘黄金表现强势，欧盘小幅回落，美盘宽幅震荡。 昨天看好黄金中阳上涨，完美验证。 不过，我们提到的加速上涨并没有到来。 那么今天4173想要突破难度就很大了，4173破不了，今天出阴的概率大。 -另外今天是感恩节，周四周五晚上3：30会提前休市。 -暂时先看黄金在4110-4173区域延续震荡。 今日思路 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联 系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 黄金昨天小幅上涨，日线收短阳，形成两阳夹一阴的多方炮，MACD金叉，黄金etf增持4.57T，今天能上破站稳4173，有望 ...

Core Insights - The current spot gold price is reported at $4152.88 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.56% [2] - COMEX gold is trading at $4188.00 per ounce, also reflecting a daily rise of 0.55% [2] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, holds 1040.86 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] Price Analysis - Domestic gold jewelry brands have set the following prices: - Chow Tai Fook: 1312 CNY/g for gold, 624 CNY/g for platinum [6] - Lao Feng Xiang: 1315 CNY/g for gold, 600 CNY/g for platinum [6] - Chow Sang Sang: 1316 CNY/g for gold, 624 CNY/g for platinum [6] - Luk Fook: 1310 CNY/g for gold, 624 CNY/g for platinum [6] - Lao Miao: 1315 CNY/g for gold, 600 CNY/g for platinum [6] - Jin Zun: 1310 CNY/g for gold, 624 CNY/g for platinum [7] - Cai Bai: 1280 CNY/g for gold, 540 CNY/g for platinum [7] Technical Analysis - The 15-minute MACD, KDJ, and RSI indicators for spot gold are showing bearish signals [3] - The 1-hour MACD indicates a bullish signal, while KDJ and RSI are still bearish [3] Inventory Data - COMEX gold inventory stands at 1137.49 tons, down by 0.08 tons from the previous day [5]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have surged, with overall prices surpassing 1300 yuan per gram, marking a significant increase in the market [1] - The highest price among major brands is from Zhou Sheng Sheng, which increased by 22 yuan per gram to 1315 yuan per gram, tied with Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has widened to 93 yuan per gram, indicating a growing disparity in pricing among brands [1] Group 2: Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery price has increased by 16.8 yuan per gram, reflecting a rising trend in the market [2] - Different brands show significant variation in recovery prices, with the highest recovery price at 933 yuan per gram [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - International spot gold prices have seen a substantial rise, reaching a peak of 4139.75 USD per ounce, with a closing price of 4134.63 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.72% increase [4] - The current spot gold price is reported at 4145.45 USD per ounce, with a further increase of 0.29% [4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, which have heightened market expectations for a rate cut in December, now at 80.9% [4] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, continue to support gold prices, as recent airstrikes have escalated concerns [4]

Group 1 - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.33% at $4133.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.49% at $51.155 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that some Federal Reserve officials support a rate cut in December, which enhances market expectations for policy easing and supports gold prices [1] - The spot gold price fluctuated between $4000 and $4130 last week, experiencing sharp declines after multiple failed attempts to rise, indicating a significant cooling of expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, emphasizes that market focus is on interest rate trends, stating that "everything depends on rates" and that market volatility follows Federal Reserve officials' comments [4] - Grady believes the upward trend for gold is not over, noting that the S&P has risen 12% this year, gold has increased by 50%, and gold stocks have surged by 125%, predicting higher gold prices in the future [4] - According to the latest Kitco gold survey, among 13 analysts, only two expect gold prices to rise this week, four anticipate a decline, and seven predict prices will remain stable [4] Group 3 - Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, holds a neutral view, suggesting that gold prices may need more time to initiate a sustained rise, but the Federal Reserve's decision next month could bring changes [4] - Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco, believes that the next target for gold futures bulls is above $4250, but if gold falls below the critical support level of $4000, it could trigger larger technical sell-offs [4] - Bank of America forecasts that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026, asserting that the driving forces behind the recent surge in gold prices will persist [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices are weakening and are expected to record a weekly decline due to a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in December [1] - As of the report, spot gold has decreased by 0.3% to $4,059.86 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of approximately 1% for the week [1] - The mixed U.S. employment report has diminished hopes for a rate cut in December, leading gold to continue its downward trend [1] Group 2 - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is still a possibility of a rate cut "in the near term," which has significantly raised market expectations for a December rate cut [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4%, but remains within the Federal Reserve's expected range [3] Group 3 - The latest analysis suggests that gold prices are attempting to regain momentum, with traders needing to push prices above the $4,100 mark for a potential rally [4] - If gold surpasses $4,100, the next target will be $4,150, followed by testing the previous cycle high of $4,245 set on November 13 [4] - Should gold fail to hold above $4,100, it may decline to $4,050 and subsequently test the support level at the 50-day simple moving average of $3,981 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of economic data and Federal Reserve policies in determining future trends in the gold market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of the end of the week, spot gold closed at $4,064.90 per ounce, down $12.41 or 0.31% for the day and down $20.21 or 0.49% for the week [1]. - Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure, with a strong support level at $4,000 per ounce and initial resistance at $4,100 [1][2]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with gold prices showing a "roller coaster" pattern, briefly dipping below $4,000 before rebounding [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policies - The market perceives a greater than 70% chance of a rate cut next month, but economists suggest a more uncertain outlook [2]. - Recent employment data indicates a trend of job cuts, with an average of 2,500 employees laid off weekly in the private sector [2]. - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes suggest a preference for maintaining current interest rates, with concerns that further cuts could risk inflation [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a phase of adjustment after reaching a historical high of $4,381, with a potential for further declines if key support levels are breached [3][5]. - The upcoming week is expected to see gold prices oscillating between $4,000 and $4,100, influenced by Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - Strategies for trading gold include short positions around $4,100 and long positions near $4,000, with specific stop-loss measures recommended [5].