"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发表文章称，本周的美联储会议可能会有两位理事持不同意见，这是30多 年来（或者说连续259次政策会议）从未出现过的情况。 鲍威尔和他的部分同事已经表示倾向于在本周的会议上保持观望态度，而潜在的反对者——美联储理事 沃勒和鲍曼——恰好是特朗普总统任命的两名人选。两人都表示支持降息，特朗普也公开要求降息。 值得注意的是，二人均为特朗普任命的官员，而特朗普近期频繁施压美联储，不仅突访总部、公开批评 鲍威尔领导力，更在鲍威尔明年5月任期结束前引发继任者角逐。 历史数据显示，美联储理事集体异议极为罕见，上一次出现还要追溯至1993年，此后的259次会议均未 再现这一场景。 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布利率决议，02:30鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。外界普遍预计，在 7月29日至30日的会议结束时，政策制定者将连续第五次维持利率不变。然而，几乎铁定将再度"按兵不 动"的美联储，却可能遭遇三十多年来最为嘹亮的"反对声"。 除沃勒和鲍曼外，其他成员均未表露出在本次会议上降息的倾向。6月会议纪要显示，部分官员甚至主 张今年不降息。本次会议上，理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adrian ...

Core Viewpoint - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. is recognized as the largest private gold producer in China, with a strong focus on gold mining and sales globally, and has been given a "Buy" rating in a recent research report [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates four precious metal mines domestically, with the Five Dragon Mine and Jilong Shanzizi Mine being the core contributors to its gold output, maintaining stable annual production and significant exploration results [1] - Internationally, the company manages two precious metal mines, with the Saipan Mine being a key player in gold production and the Vasa Mine acquired in 2022 expected to be a major source of future gold increments [1][2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and outstanding cost control capabilities, with its domestic mines being high-grade deposits that are rare in the domestic gold market, leading to top-tier profitability [2] - The company has a strategic focus on cost control, which has significantly improved its profitability and debt management, laying a solid foundation for future resource expansion and mergers [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices may face pressure, but the downside potential is limited, with expected upward momentum in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's policy shift [3] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. debt burden exacerbated by the "Big and Beautiful Act" could provide potential opportunities for gold prices to trend upward [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 12.205 billion yuan, 14.104 billion yuan, and 15.279 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.692 billion yuan, 4.311 billion yuan, and 4.886 billion yuan for the same years [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 13.76, 11.78, and 10.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating based on future growth prospects [4] Group 5: Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, eight institutions have rated the stock, with seven "Buy" ratings and one "Hold" rating, and the average target price among institutions is 40.09 yuan [8]

从7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，最低触及3300美元/盎司，28日收报 3310.0美元/盎司。 周生生足金饰品标价994元/克，较7月23日1029元/克的价格下跌35元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价995元/ 克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌28元/克；周大福足金饰品标价998元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌 25元/克。 编辑：孙懿辞 初审：梁爽 复审：曹光宇 终审：臧立 与此同时，现货黄金也从7月22日的3431高点后连续4个交易日下跌，7月28日收盘报3314.440美元/盎 司，6天跌超110美元/盎司。 7月29日，国内金饰价格跟跌，多品牌金饰价格均跌破千元。 金价短期下行，受到多重因素影响。专家提醒，未来黄金价格走势充满不确定性，投资者需谨慎。 ◆来源：中国经济网、国是直通车、中新经纬 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international gold prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a favorable US-EU trade agreement and a strong US dollar, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price - As of 8:30 AM, the domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 770.84 CNY per gram, down 0.31% [1]. Group 2: International Gold Price - The international gold price is reported at 3307.4 USD per ounce, down 0.08% [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - The US and EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, alleviating fears of a larger trade war and enhancing market optimism, which reduces the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The strong performance of the US dollar, which rose 1% to a one-week high, makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers, further decreasing its attractiveness [4]. - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to provide limited breakthroughs, maintaining some uncertainty in the market, which may offer slight support for gold prices despite the downward pressures from the US-EU agreement and the strong dollar [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by developments in US-EU trade agreements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term while maintaining a strong long-term perspective on gold prices due to central bank purchases. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - US-EU Trade Agreement Progress: The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and EU has reduced market risk aversion, causing spot gold to open significantly lower by $18, reaching a near one-month low [3]. - Federal Reserve Dynamics: The July meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve suggest a potential rate cut of only 25 basis points in September, which is below the market's expectation of 50 basis points, leading to a strengthening of the dollar and a decrease in gold demand [3]. - Geopolitical Situations: A temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical premiums, with a $15 drop in gold prices. Ongoing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to affect market sentiment [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term Outlook: Gold prices are expected to remain weak with support levels at $3300 - $3315 and resistance levels at $3350 - $3370. A break below key support could lead to further declines, while a breakout above resistance may allow for a rebound [4]. - Long-term Perspective: The logic supporting gold prices remains robust due to ongoing purchases by global central banks, although attention must be paid to changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, trade dynamics, and geopolitical risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a return to a range-bound trading environment, with significant resistance and support levels to monitor for potential price movements [1][3]. Price Movements - After a steady increase earlier in the week, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling below key support levels, which disrupted the overall market rhythm [1]. - The price tested the 3386-3353 range, with a notable drop to the 3353 level, indicating a potential downward shift if this support is breached [1][3]. Key Levels to Watch - The critical support level to observe is 3353-3351; a failure to hold this range could lead to a further decline of approximately $20 [1][3]. - Conversely, if prices break above the early morning high of 3373-3374, there could be an upward shift of $20 [1]. Technical Indicators - The daily chart shows a pattern of consecutive gains followed by losses, with the life line at 3346 being pivotal for determining future price movements [3]. - The four-hour chart indicates a downward pressure, with the life line at 3390-3392 acting as a key dividing line between bullish and bearish trends [3]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a state of indecision, with the price oscillating around the 3353 level, suggesting a potential buildup of momentum for either direction [3]. - The purple channel's mid-point serves as a critical switching point, with the lower boundary facing its fourth test, indicating a heightened risk of a breakdown [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is experiencing significant resistance at the $3360 level, which may limit short-term rebound potential [1] - There is a substantial amount of short orders at $3360, suggesting downward pressure on gold prices, with the strongest resistance level identified at $3363.45 [1] - Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, there is a slight increase in bullish sentiment after consecutive days of decline, which may help to limit further downside, with a key support level at $3345.69 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the spot gold price has broken below the range of $3359-62, leading to the formation of a new short accumulation zone, which is currently a major resistance level [1]. Group 2 - The real-time tracking of the latest long and short transaction changes is emphasized, suggesting a dynamic market environment for spot gold [1].

Core Insights - China's gold production in the first half of 2025 was 179.083 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%, while gold consumption was 505.205 tons, down 3.54% year-on-year [4][5] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures in the U.S., with the London spot gold price rising by 24.31% since the beginning of the year [4][5] - Despite high gold prices suppressing jewelry consumption, demand for gold bars and coins has surged, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards investment [5][6] Gold Production and Consumption - In the first half of 2025, gold production included 139.413 tons from mining and 39.670 tons from by-products, with total production reaching 252.761 tons, a slight increase of 0.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The decline in gold consumption is primarily due to a 26% drop in jewelry demand, while gold bars and coins saw a 23.69% increase [5][6] Market Trends and Investment - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of gold ETFs and related funds reached 260.337 billion yuan, marking a 49.73% increase quarter-on-quarter [6][7] - The average return for gold funds in the first half of 2025 was 23.01%, with the highest return recorded at 24.14% [7] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to support long-term price increases, despite short-term uncertainties due to tariff policies [8]