12月11日，在第三季度全球经济活动强劲的背景下，各国央行的黄金采购热情延续至11月。ZFX山海证 券认为，尽管金价在10月达到历史高位后出现一定回落，但央行依然积极增持黄金以增强储备稳定性和 抗风险能力。根据世界黄金协会EMEA高级分析师Krishan Gopaul社交媒体发布的数据，波兰和巴西在 11月的黄金购买中位列前茅，这显示出中小经济体央行在全球金融波动中对黄金的战略依赖性增强。 数据显示，不同地区央行的黄金增持策略存在明显差异。ZFX山海证券表示，一些主要市场的增持相对 低迷，例如该地区主要央行上月仅增持1吨，但这并未改变整体央行对黄金的长期配置趋势。波兰央行 11月购入14吨黄金，总持有量达到544吨，占外汇储备的27，显示其对黄金作为避险资产的持续依赖。 巴西连续第三个月增加黄金储备，本月增持11吨，年内累计增持43吨，总储备升至172吨，反映出新兴 经济体央行在提升资产多元化方面的坚定策略。 中亚和东欧部分国家同样活跃。乌兹别克斯坦央行11月增持10吨黄金，使年末持有量达到380吨，仅比 年初低2吨，显示该国在储备稳定性上的高度重视。捷克国家银行增持1.6吨，今年累计增持20吨，较年 初几乎 ...

黄金危机爆发。1935年1月，联邦造币厂厂长内莉·戴维斯·罗斯向财政部长亨利·摩根索求助。自从6102号总统令生效以来，已经收缴了超过1400吨黄金，造 币厂的仓库快要满了。而且，费城金库也发生了多起盗窃事件，黄金的安全问题令人担忧。 1933年4月，美国总统罗斯福签署了6102号总统令，禁止在美国国内个人私藏金币、金条以及金券等黄金制品。如果任何个人拥有超过100美元的黄金财物， 将被视为违法行为，面临最高可达1万美元罚款，或长达十年的监禁，甚至两者并罚。这项政策立刻引起了全美国的广泛关注和强烈反响，但罗斯福总统并 未因此改变决定。1929年全球经济大萧条爆发后，各国人民深刻认识到纸币的不稳定性。当时，德国出现了纸币一车才能买到一块面包的情况，这让民众对 纸币失去了信任。而黄金，在那时的极端困境下依然被视为最可靠的财富储存方式。大萧条期间，全球民众疯狂囤积黄金，各国的黄金储备迅速消耗。作为 世界经济中心的美国，面临着更加严重的局面。随着黄金储备的急剧下降，美元的信用也受到了严重威胁。 民间黄金储备过多也对美元构成了威胁。黄金作为真正的硬通货，标准统一、交易便利、价值稳定。如果民间拥有过多黄金，老百姓可能会转 ...

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to trade sideways as analysts anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut already priced in. Silver, however, shows a positive bias, nearing all-time highs driven by industrial demand and tightening inventories. Investors are closely watching the Fed meeting for potential volatility, while China continues to boost its gold reserves. ...

曾经，中国是美债最大海外持有者，一度超过一万三千亿美元。 如今，这个数字已经连续多年下滑，节奏虽缓，方向明确。 这不是孤立动作。 连美国最铁的盟友日本——高市早苗政府下的财务省——也在加速抛售美债。 大家都看到了同一个问题：美国债务雪球越滚越大，财政纪律形同虚设，政治极化让债务上限谈判变成人质游戏。 持有越多，风险敞口越大。 中国的选择，不是立刻清仓美元资产，而是一边有序减持美债，一边稳步增持黄金。 这是一场精密的资产置换，不是情绪化脱钩。 美债仍是流动性最好的安全资产之一，彻底抛弃不现实。 但过度依赖，等于把国家金融命脉绑在别人的信用绳索上。 中国央行在十一月七日公布的黄金储备数据，一下子把全球金融圈的注意力拽了过来。 七千四百一十二万盎司，比上个月又多了三万盎司。 这已经是连续第十三个月增持了。 从二〇二四年十一月起，每个月都买，风雨无阻。 数字本身不算爆炸，但公布的时间点，像一根针扎进了敏感神经。 几乎就在同一天，特朗普放出口风，打算在二〇二五年四月正式访华。 一个还没动身，一个先亮出底牌。 这场面，怎么看都不是巧合。 黄金储备的变动，向来不是简单的资产配置问题。 尤其当它出现在中美关系再度绷紧的节骨眼 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $33,464 billion by the end of November 2025, marking a rise of $3 billion or 0.09% from the end of October [1] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 7.412 million ounces at the end of November, with an increase of 30,000 ounces [1] - Analysts attribute the rise in reserves to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a slight depreciation of the US dollar, which positively impacted the valuation of non-dollar assets in China's reserves [1][2] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index [2] - The reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, the highest level since December 2015, with a significant increase of $144 billion compared to the end of the previous year [2] - Factors contributing to this stability include a significant depreciation of the dollar, a decline in US Treasury yields, and rising global stock indices [2] Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces in November, continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation [4] - The price of gold rose from $4,000 per ounce at the end of October to above $4,200 in November, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a depreciating dollar [4] - The current gold reserve proportion in China's international reserves is 8.0%, significantly below the global average of around 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation of gold [5] Economic Context - The US economic data released in November showed weakness, contributing to an increased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut to over 80% [3] - The reduction of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US by 10% is expected to stabilize China's export scale to the US [3] - China's capital market is being progressively opened to foreign investors, enhancing the attractiveness for overseas investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's recent increase in gold reserves, reaching 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, signals a strategic shift in its financial positioning amidst rising U.S. debt and concerns over dollar credibility [1][3][28] Group 1: Gold Reserves and Strategic Implications - China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves for thirteen consecutive months, which is not just a routine update but a significant political signal [1][3] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a move to enhance financial resilience and reduce reliance on U.S. debt, especially as global financial risks rise [13][20] - The psychological and credit implications of holding substantial gold reserves influence global perceptions of a country's currency and financial stability [9][11] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Global Financial Dynamics - The perception of U.S. Treasury bonds as the "safest asset" is being challenged as concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and rising debt levels grow [15][17] - China's strategic reduction of U.S. debt holdings reflects a broader trend among countries reassessing their exposure to U.S. financial instruments [18][20] - The shift from U.S. debt to gold and other non-dollar assets indicates a diminishing structural dependency on the dollar, potentially altering the global financial landscape [30][32] Group 3: Geopolitical Context and Future Outlook - The announcement of increased gold reserves serves as a warning to the U.S. that China will not continue to support U.S. fiscal irresponsibility [28][32] - As more countries diversify away from U.S. debt, the foundations of U.S. monetary hegemony are showing signs of irreversible weakening [24][30] - The current geopolitical climate suggests that nations with substantial hard assets will have greater influence in future financial order restructuring [32]

12月8日资讯分享 美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率意外回落至2.8%，创三个月低位，市场预期为连续第三个月录得2.9%。 白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储是时候审慎地降息。未与川普讨论美联储主席人选问题。美财长： 美国到今年年底将实现3%的GDP增长。 上周五，现货黄金盘中短线拉升，一度逼近4260关口，但随后高位回落，回吐日内全部涨幅，收于4200 整数关口下方，最终收跌0.27%，报4197.13美元/盎司；现货白银历史性地站上59关口，连续第二日创 纪录新高，最终收涨2.03%，报58.3美元/盎司。 市场判断俄乌和谈短期难以促成制裁放松，WTI原油最终收涨0.7%，报60.13美元/桶；布伦特原油最终 收涨0.8%，报63.87美元/桶。 据悉G7和欧盟考虑禁止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。 俄媒：俄罗斯11月黄金储备首破3000亿美元，创其现代历史纪录。 ...

12月7日公布的官方数据显示，我国11月末黄金储备报7412万盎司。这一数据环比增加3万盎司，系连续第13个月增持。现货金价目前在4200美元附近维持震 荡态势。美元指数近期出现小幅反弹，对金价上行形成限制。市场整体呈现出区间波动的特征。 外汇储备规模受估值影响回升 国家外汇管理局统计显示，11月末外汇储备规模为33464亿美元。该数值较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。汇率折算与资产价格变化共同推动了规模 回升。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，11月"美元指数小幅下跌0.3%"，带动非美资产升值。美联储降息预期升温导致美债收益率下行。美债价格走高也 增加了外储月末估值。 央行购金策略显现优化迹象 央行增持黄金的节奏在近期呈现放缓态势。11月增持量与上月持平，均为3万盎司。这一增持规模处于2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。中银证券全球 首席经济学家管涛曾测算认为，中国在增持过程中更加注意"逢低买入而不是追高"。 对于官方储备结构的调整逻辑，王青分析称，央行持续小幅增持"释放了优化国际储备的信号"。目前黄金储备占比为8.0%，仍低于全球平均水平。国家金融 与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟认为，央行在 ...

12月8日周一早盘，黄金、白银高开高走。 现货黄金站稳4200美元关口上方，现货白银涨幅为0.43%，报58.544美元/盎司。 | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4209.090 | | 昨结 | 4198.230 | 总量 | | 0 | | +10.860 | +0.26% | 开盘 | 4198.230 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4210.370 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4192.760 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | 围K | 目K | 車名 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 4210.870 | | | | | 0.29% 卖一 4209.630 | | | | | | | | दौर- 4209.090 | | | | | | | | 8:47 4209.360 | 0 | | | ...

| W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 4209.090 | | 昨结 | | 4198.230 | 总量 | | | 0 | | +10.860 | +0.26% | 开盘 | | 4198.230 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4210.370 | 持 | | 0 | 外 | 물 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4192.760 | 撸 | | O | 内 | 智 | | O | | 关时 | モ日 | 目K | | 周Ｋ | 月K | | 童求 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 4210.870 | | | | | | 0.29% 卖一 4209.630 | | | | | | | | | | देर- | 4209.090 | | | | | | | | | 8:47 | 4209.360 | 0 | | | | | | | | 8:47 ...