此次访问的过程中，苏林的表态也进一步清晰了越南的立场。他提到，中越之间的命运共同体关系不可动摇，双方的合作将会长期稳定发展。这一表态让美 西方国家感到颇为无奈，因为他们本以为已经成功吸引越南向自己靠拢，但越南显然选择保持中立，并没有加入到美国对其他国家的战略对抗中。 越南的新领导人苏林的动作开始引起了国际社会的广泛关注。然而，令美西方国家感到失望的是，苏林的第一步却是选择访问中国，进一步加深与中国的合 作。 这次苏林访华，最引人注目的无疑是在中越铁路建设方面取得的突破。可以说，越南和中国在这条铁路上的合作，向外界清晰地传递了"要想富，先修路"的 理念，表明了这一战略在国际上正逐渐得到认同。 此外，近年来，美元的信用体系正遭遇严峻挑战，越来越多的国家开始寻求使用彼此的本币进行贸易。而作为全球第二大经济体的中国，其人民币与多个国 家签署了合作协议，这次中越之间的协议也标志着越南正式加入了人民币国际化的行列，进一步推动了人民币的全球化进程。 上个月，亚太地区充满了外交活动，尤其是东南亚，仿佛各国都在使出浑身解数。特别是在越南领导人去世之后，美西方国家纷纷赶到越南展开访问，仿佛 嗅到了一丝政治机会。 然而，越南的态度 ...

Group 1: Development Opportunities in the Greater Bay Area - The Greater Bay Area is experiencing a clear trend of integration and development despite increasing external uncertainties, with Hong Kong's role as a major offshore RMB center expected to strengthen [1] - Shenzhen's financial bureau plans to enhance cooperation with Hong Kong through project-based initiatives, support listings for Shenzhen and Greater Bay Area companies in Hong Kong, and improve cross-border transaction efficiency [1] Group 2: Financial Innovation and Connectivity - Hong Kong's financial sector possesses unique advantages in financing and investment, aiming to deepen financial connectivity with the mainland through initiatives like Stock Connect and Bond Connect, while promoting RMB internationalization [2] - The Hong Kong government emphasizes the development of innovative finance, green finance, livelihood finance, and Silk Road finance, with significant achievements in innovative finance, becoming the world's second-largest biotech financing center [2] Group 3: Macau's Role and Sector Focus - Macau aims for moderate economic diversification, focusing on traditional Chinese medicine, modern finance, high-tech, and cultural sports, while enhancing connectivity with the mainland and Hong Kong in the financial sector [3] - Macau plans to facilitate cross-border capital flow and digital currency integration, leveraging its connections with Portuguese-speaking countries to promote outbound and inbound business [3] Group 4: Strategies for Addressing Challenges - The Greater Bay Area should enhance technological self-innovation, deepen institutional openness, and strengthen industrial chain resilience, with capital market development being crucial for optimizing financing structures and promoting cross-border capital flow [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators stable and others showing fluctuations. For example, GDP growth remained stable in Q1 2025, while manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in April [1]. - The commodity market has various developments, including adjustments in oil prices, potential supply - demand changes in metals, and progress in energy and agricultural sectors [2][3][6][7]. - In the financial market, there are significant changes in bond yields, exchange rates, and stock market trends, influenced by factors such as monetary policy, trade policies, and corporate events [19][24][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in April 2025 dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: Business activity in April 2025 was 50.4%, lower than 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1]. - Social financing scale increment in April 2025 was significantly lower than the previous month, at - 658 billion yuan compared to 5896.1 billion yuan in March [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to be cut by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19, 2025, the fifth decrease this year [2]. - After the mutual tariff cuts between China and the US, freight volume between the two countries has recovered and increased, and US merchants are seeking new cooperation in China [2][11]. - Anti - dumping duties will be imposed on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, the EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting from May 19, 2025 [2]. 3.2.2 Metal - The London Metal Exchange plans to set a position limit to curb excessive speculation [3]. - With the upcoming US copper and aluminum tariffs, the US is experiencing a rush to import copper, with imports surging from about 70,000 tons per month to 500,000 tons per month [3]. - Morgan Stanley believes that the global copper and aluminum markets will be in a state of supply - demand balance to oversupply in 2025 [3]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hyundai Steel will close its rebar factory in Incheon, South Korea, in April [4]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's first offshore CCUS well has been drilled in the Enping 15 - 1 platform in the South China Sea, with the potential to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [6]. - The construction of the 2 - gigawatt CNGD Delingha solar - thermal storage integrated project in Qinghai is in full swing [6]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's non - fossil energy power generation capacity reached 2 billion kilowatts for the first time, accounting for 58.8% of the total power generation capacity [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The spring sowing of grain in China has covered over 35 million mu, with progress similar to last year. Early rice seedlings are over half - grown, and nearly 10% has been transplanted [7]. - In 2024, the global coffee price soared by 38.8%, and Brazil's domestic coffee price increased by nearly 40%, affecting the cooperation model between international buyers and Brazilian exporters [7]. - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the number of pigs and piglets in the US is 74.512 million [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank net - withdrew 475.1 billion yuan from the open market last week, and 486 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature this week [9]. - On May 16, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 2.95 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release April economic data on Monday, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the economic situation [10]. - Financial regulators have expressed support for Beijing's development in the financial sector, including promoting technology finance and strengthening the function of the national financial management center [10]. - The pilot of spot - housing sales is being promoted, but the timing for full implementation is not yet mature [10][11]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and most bond yields increased. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates for deposit - taking institutions rose significantly [19]. - The issuance of two batches of technological innovation bonds by New Hope Group and Tongwei Co., Ltd. was successful, with issuance scales of 500 million yuan each [14]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2037 on May 16, up 95 points from the previous trading day, and rose 424 points last week [24]. - The US dollar index rose 0.15% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies declined [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that after the Sino - US Geneva talks, bilateral tariff cuts will reduce the risk of a US economic recession and make the Fed more concerned about inflation [26]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income argues that credit demand is still bottoming out in April, and the loose monetary policy environment may continue [26]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market has been performing well this year, and a major new energy company will list on the HKEX on May 20, making Hong Kong the world's leading IPO market in terms of fundraising [29]. - Since May, the A - share market has seen increasing institutional research, with a focus on high - end manufacturing, semiconductors, and healthcare [29]. - CITIC Construction Investment maintains a range - bound view of the A - share market but raises the oscillation center to near the half - year line [30].

Group 1: China-Latin America Cooperation - The fourth ministerial meeting of the China-Latin America and Caribbean Community Forum was held in Beijing, where President Xi Jinping announced the launch of five major projects to promote development and build a community of shared future between China and Latin America [1] - The establishment of a comprehensive cooperative partnership between China and Latin America is significant and has far-reaching implications, enhancing practical cooperation in trade, investment, finance, technology, and infrastructure [1] - China's financial sector has actively supported cooperation with Latin America, contributing to the deepening of South-South cooperation and adding new dimensions to the comprehensive partnership [1] Group 2: Financial Cooperation and Initiatives - Brazilian President Lula's recent visit to China resulted in multiple cooperation agreements aimed at deepening economic and trade cooperation between China and Brazil, with Bank of Communications actively supporting this financial collaboration [2] - Bank of Communications established its Brazilian subsidiary in 2016, which now holds a full banking license and provides various financial services to over 60 Chinese enterprises in Brazil [2] - The China Development Bank has financed significant infrastructure projects in Argentina and Peru, enhancing transportation and energy supply capabilities, thereby improving local competitiveness and service levels [4][5] Group 3: RMB Internationalization - The demand for cross-border use of the RMB is increasing as the Belt and Road Initiative progresses, with Chinese banks providing comprehensive financial services to Latin American enterprises [6] - China Bank has facilitated RMB settlement services for major companies in Chile, enhancing the financial support for Chinese enterprises operating in Latin America [6] - Bank of Communications has introduced an innovative cross-border RMB loan model, providing a full range of financing, settlement, and currency risk management services [7]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.07% [1] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities suggests that market indices may maintain strong resilience due to the unexpected suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," which enhances short-term risk appetite. Structural divergences remain, and the space for long-term tariff reductions is limited. The current market environment shows a strengthening of total policy determination, improvement in core city real estate, and high historical levels of margin trading, which, combined with policies emphasizing indices, may support continued resilience in market indices [2] - Investment funds are expected to rotate around sectors with high first-quarter report performance and mid-term industry trends, including public utilities, AI upstream and leading technology firms, gold, nuclear power equipment, military industry, and consumer sectors related to younger demographics such as pets and beauty products. Investors are advised to accumulate positions in these sectors on dips and to focus on high-quality leaders in the CSI 300 with significantly lower institutional allocation compared to index component ratios [2] New Market Dynamics - Minsheng Securities notes that a new order and narrative are emerging as investors begin to price in the marginal easing of trade shocks. However, structural shocks will persist, and the return to fundamental pricing characteristics will gradually become evident. Future declines in total demand and the fluctuating path of trade easing may disrupt market tranquility. The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for technology breakthroughs influencing market risk appetite, while the current phase is characterized by a rotation in investor styles towards technology themes, which may lack sustainability [3] - The gradual establishment of a long-term mechanism for domestic consumption is expected to yield three sources of returns: net profit growth, dividend payments, and valuation increases, with recommendations for sectors such as home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, trendy toys, tourism, gaming, and online retail [3] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system is likely to gradually reveal the value of capacities in advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing, while resource products with significant supply constraints (copper, aluminum, gold) may also see new opportunities [3] - As the economic transition progresses and real estate stabilizes, the de-financialization process in China is nearing its end. The current investment and financing environment for Chinese enterprises is improving, which may drive new expansions in the financial sector, particularly as the new domestic growth paradigm and the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process unfold [3]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 人民币国际化的进程、前景与机遇 ——全球货币体系重构与人民币国际化系列之一 金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 2025年以来，为了解决美国面临的双赤字问题，特朗普上台后一系列政策极大增加了全球经 济、贸易、金融市场的不确定性。与此同时，全球投资者持有美元资产的意愿下降，特别是以 安全属性为主的美债被抛售，黄金受到青睐。对于全球投资者而言，无论是官方还是私人部 门，资产多元化将是趋势。另一方面，当前中国在全球经贸当中的参与权重，意味着人民币国 际化将不断深化。自2022年以来的人民币国际化展现出多维度深化、结构性优化与机制性建设 协同推进的鲜明特征，尽管在资本项目有序开放、金融市场体系建设等方面挑战犹存，但人民 币在全球货币体系中的实际地位和影响力无疑已迈上新台阶，正为中国建设金融强国的战略目 标提供日益重要的支撑。 从发展历程来看，人民币国际化经历了政策出击市场需求扩张高水平开放金融市场的三个阶 段：1）政策驱动 ：2009年我国开放人民币跨境贸易和直接投资的结算试点，2011年推广至全 国，人民 ...

5月19日（周一） 中国4月规模以上工业增加值、固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额等经济数据 欧元区4月调和CPI 欧元区4月核心调和CPI 国家统计局公布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告 国新办就国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会 5月20日（周二） 澳大利亚截至5月18日当周ANZ消费者信心指数 中国5月一年期、五年期贷款市场报价利率LPR 本周（5月19日—5月25日），国内方面，5月19日，国家统计局公布4月规模以上工业增加值、固定资产 投资、社会消费品零售总额等经济数据，同时，5月LPR将公布；海外方面，多国和地区将发布4月CPI 年率、核心CPI年率，美国将于5月22日竞拍10年期通胀保值国债(TIPS) 。本周A股市场无新股申购，超 186亿元市值限售股解禁。 5月21日（周三） 日本4月商品贸易帐 英国4月CPI年率 英国4月核心CPI年率 英国4月零售物价指数 5月22日（周四） 欧元区5月SPGI制造业PMI初值 德国5月IFO商业景气指数 澳大利亚5月现金利率 加拿大4月核心CPI 欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值 英国5月SPGI服务业PMI初值 英国5月SPGI制造业PMI初值 英国5月CB ...

Group 1: Global Trade and Investment - The ongoing US tariff policies are reshaping the global trade landscape, with experts suggesting that China should play a more significant role in international trade [1] - Former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka highlighted that the biggest challenges facing the world are imbalance and instability, particularly due to the US's chronic trade deficit stemming from domestic economic imbalances [1] - Michael Spence emphasized that trade wars are mutually damaging and called for the establishment of a multilateral system supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging economies [1] Group 2: China's Market Attractiveness - Despite increasing pressures from US-China trade frictions, the attractiveness of the Chinese market remains strong, with low valuations for Chinese companies and a robust economic foundation [2] - The presence of a large, high-quality population and the world's largest pool of engineers provides China with unique advantages for foreign investment [2] - Continuous opening of economic and financial systems in China is expected to enhance its appeal to foreign investors, a trend that will not change due to US-China tariff disputes [2] Group 3: Global Monetary System - Experts at the forum noted a gradual decline in the dominance of the US dollar in the global monetary system, indicating a trend towards diversification [2] - Hu Xiaolian, former chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, stated that the future international monetary system will be more diverse and inclusive, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks [2] Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi is gaining attention, with the need for a strong international financial center to support it, emphasizing the importance of opening domestic financial markets [3] - The release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025" analyzed the challenges and opportunities facing China's financial development, including external complexities and the restructuring of international trade orders [3] - The report also addressed issues in financial security and regulation, highlighting the impact of regulatory reforms in various countries, particularly the US, on global financial stability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for continuous deepening of financial system reforms and the construction of a financial system with Chinese characteristics, while analyzing the challenges and opportunities facing China's financial development [1][3]. Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities - The report identifies three main challenges and opportunities for China's financial development: 1. The current financial reform is at a critical juncture due to severe external conditions, increased global economic volatility, restructuring of international trade order, and rising geopolitical risks [3]. 2. Financial security and regulatory challenges are present, including the impact of regulatory reforms in various countries, particularly in the U.S., on global financial stability, as well as challenges posed by advancements in digital currencies [3]. 3. The ongoing technological revolution is reshaping the competitive landscape of finance, with widespread applications of AI technology leading to a period of technological updates in the global financial system [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Financial System Reform - The report proposes five key recommendations for deepening financial system reforms: 1. Optimize the allocation of financial resources, with a focus on maintaining a stable financial environment [3]. 2. Accelerate the improvement of the central bank system to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [3]. 3. Strengthen financial stability guarantees by enhancing regulation, promoting a regulatory safety net, and ensuring all financial activities are subject to oversight [3]. 4. Adhere to the essence of finance to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services [3]. 5. Promote high-level financial openness and accelerate the construction of a strong financial nation, emphasizing the internationalization of the Renminbi and the development of international financial centers [3].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil signed a bilateral currency swap agreement, with a scale of 190 billion RMB / 157 billion Brazilian Real, valid for five years [1] - The initial currency swap agreement between China and Brazil was signed in 2013, with the same scale of 190 billion RMB, reflecting the growing economic ties between the two countries [1] - China has been Brazil's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, and Brazil is China's largest trading partner in Latin America [1] Group 2 - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the People's Bank of China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 42 countries and regions, with 32 active agreements totaling 4.3 trillion RMB [2] - Bilateral currency swap agreements facilitate trade and investment by allowing direct settlement in local currencies, reducing exchange rate risks and costs [2] - The recent renewal of the China-Brazil currency swap agreement sends a positive signal of cooperation, enhancing market confidence and contributing to regional and global financial stability [2] Group 3 - The currency swap agreements also support offshore market liquidity, as seen in the upgrade of the agreement with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in July 2022 [3] - The implementation of these agreements accelerates the internationalization of the RMB, increasing its acceptance in trade settlements and financial transactions [3] - The renewal of the China-Brazil currency swap agreement is expected to deepen financial cooperation, stabilize the monetary environment for trade and investment, and reduce reliance on the US dollar [3]