同样，中美联合声明文本也体现了中国没有在原则立场上退让半步。根据声明，美方共取消了共计91% 的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关税。 可见，谈判不可能在美方无端加征关税的基础上进行，敦促美方纠正错误，这正是中国在对美谈判中设 定的前提。 此外，中美经贸磋商机制的建立，也为减少美方在后续经贸谈判的多变性 、反复性建立了一种宽约束 机制，有助于增强中美基本互信。 事实证明，尽管中美在多领域多层次都有竞争，但仍可以做到相互尊重、互利合作。中美联合声明的发 布，就是中美相向而行迈出的重要一步。 据新华社报道，5月12日，中美发布了日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。 声明表示，中美双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取举措：美方暂停对中国商品（含港澳）原加征的 24%关税（为期90天），保留10%关税；同时取消第14259号、14266号行政令的额外关税。中方相应调 整对美商品加征的24%关税（暂停90天），保留10%关税，并取消第5号、6号税委会公告的加征措施。 声明还表示，双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。协商可在中国、美国，或双方商定的第三 ...

商务部新闻发言人表示，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开 展进一步磋商。 据商务部网站消息，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年1 月17日中美元首通话重要共识进行了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共 识。 当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称"声明"）。 对此，商务部新闻发言人表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方 取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方 也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 商务部称，这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。希望美方以这 次会谈为基础，与中方继续相向而行，彻底纠正单边加税的错误做法，不断加强互利合作，维护中美经 贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展，共同为世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性。 美东时间4月10日，美方公布行政令，进一步提高对中国输美产品 ...

5月12日下午，中美联合声明发布，中国稳稳守住底线，没让步半分，而美国居然罕见地连甩三招让利：暂停24%的关税、保留10%的"基础关税"不加码， 还直接取消了125%和145%的惩罚性关税。 这波操作，简直让人瞠目结舌，日内瓦会谈刚结束，双方不仅谈出大成果，还定了常态化磋商机制，这关税战咋就突然破冰了？美国为啥接连松口，声明背 后到底藏着什么故事呢？ 文案|编辑：清 12日下午3点，中美经贸高层会谈的联合声明如期发布，这份声明虽短，却字字千金，标志着中美从针锋相对的关税战迈向了务实合作的谈判桌，在瑞士日 内瓦刚刚结束的会谈中，双方不仅达成了重要共识，还敲定了常态化磋商机制。 更引人注目的是，美国在关税问题上接连作出三项让步：暂停对中国商品加征24%的关税，保留10%的"基础关税"未进一步加码，取消此前高达125%和 145%的惩罚性关税，中国则通过这场谈判，牢牢守住了底线。 声明一出，全球目光聚焦于这份文件背后的故事，声明简明扼要，核心内容只有两段，却清晰勾勒出中美经贸关系的一次关键转折。美国的三项让步，意味 着双方在经历了数月的紧张对峙后，终于找到了一条对话的路。而中国在谈判中展现的韧性与策略，不仅维护了自 ...

中新社北京5月12日电 (尹倩芸)当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行。 中方披露的信息显示，此次会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。 这一"实质性进展"直接体现为双边关税水平的大幅降低。中国商务部新闻发言人就中美日内瓦经贸会谈 联合声明发表谈话时表示，本次会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的 加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关税。 中美经贸关系不仅事关两国经济利益，对全球经济稳定亦具有关键影响。世界贸易组织总干事伊维拉在 声明中表示，会谈标志着向前迈出重要一步。在当前全球紧张局势下，这一进展不仅对美中很重要，对 世界其他地区，包括最脆弱的经济体也很重要。 对于两国贸易分歧，中方立场也是明确而一贯的。中国官方此前已多次表态，任何对话谈判必须在相互 尊重、平等协商、互惠互利的前提下开展。 上海对外经贸大学国际组织学院院长应品广提到，回顾过去几年的中美经贸磋商，凡是取得进展的谈 判，均建立在相互尊重的基础上。对于美方，不仅要听其言，更要观其行，重点关注其是否在关税 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】本轮物价低迷与前两轮有何 不同：特征、原因和应对》2025-05-11 《【粤开宏观】新一轮一揽子金融政策：重 现 924 及增量举措》2025-05-07 《【粤开宏观】"内卷式"竞争：风起何方？ 《【粤开宏观】博弈视角看"关税战"：特 朗普的意图与各经济体的不同反应》 2025-04-27 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的七大信 号》2025-04-25 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】中美互降关税：为何要 降？还有哪些没解决？未来会如何？ 事件 潮归何处？》2025-05-05 5 月 12 日，中国和美国发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，要点包括： 1）美国将本轮对华加征的 125%的"对等关税 ...

5月10日至11日的周末，全世界都关注着在瑞士日内瓦举行的中美经贸高层会谈。于瑞士时间5月12日上午9时，双方 发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话：双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识，美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号 行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中 国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。 相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关 税90天，剩余10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开展进一步磋商。 受此消息带动，全球资产出现异动。 富时中国A50期货一度涨超2%。 据指美国对冲基金期望中美贸易谈判取得进展，而看好中资股，增加了对中资股的押注。 另一方面，美股期货也飙升，其中标普500期货指数攀升2.8%，纳斯达克100期货上涨3.78%，道琼斯期货也一度大涨 90 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）5月12日，据新华社消息，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布。中国和美国认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要 性；认识到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性；鉴于双方近期的讨论，相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域关切的问题；本着相互开 放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精神，继续推进相关工作。 正如人民银行日前发布的《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》强调，"坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度， 坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范 汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定"。 展望后市，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，在关税战取得突破性进展后，人民币汇率有望在当前区间延续升值走势，这也反映出国际资本对于人民 币资产的信心。 商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/5/12 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,220 | +63↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1384049 | -37020↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 136,951 | -12932↓ HC10 ...

Core Points - The recent joint statement from the China-U.S. Geneva economic and trade talks indicates that both sides believe ongoing negotiations will help address their economic and trade concerns [1] - Both parties have agreed to modify tariffs on each other's goods, with a 24% tariff being suspended for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff [1] - A mechanism for regular dialogue will be established to facilitate timely communication and resolve differences, thereby enhancing the stability of future negotiations [2] Summary by Categories Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will modify the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, including a 24% tariff suspended for 90 days and a 10% tariff retained [1] - China will also adjust its tariffs on U.S. goods similarly, with a 24% tariff suspended for 90 days and a 10% tariff retained [1] Dialogue Mechanism - Both countries have agreed to establish a regular dialogue mechanism to improve communication and reduce friction, which is expected to strengthen future negotiations [2] Market Reactions - The announcement has led to positive market reactions, with major stock indices in Hong Kong and U.S. futures rising, alongside increases in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index [2] - The 90-day suspension of tariffs provides time for both sides to reach further consensus, although it also adds pressure to the negotiation process [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall rapeseed market shows complex trends. In the short - term, the supply of rapeseed products is relatively loose, but there is high long - term uncertainty. For rapeseed meal, the direct import pressure has decreased significantly, but the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure suppress the market price. For rapeseed oil, the cost increase supports the price, but high inventory continues to restrict the market price. Short - term trading is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9378 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2544 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures is 711.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 12.2 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed futures is 5400 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 178 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 232 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 292,927 lots, down 15,753 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 576,482 lots, up 4096 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 25,914 lots, down 9564 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 37,241 lots, up 6117 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1707, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 31,218, up 1993 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9480 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9477.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of rapeseed is 5195.72 yuan/ton, up 61.41 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 930 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, unchanged; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 42.51%, up 17.06 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 14.05 million tons, up 0.55 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 65.54 million tons, up 1.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 45.59 million tons, up 0.92 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.8 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 23 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.94%, up 0.52 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 22.94%, up 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.19%, up 0.13 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 16.2%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.24%, down 1.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 27.24%, down 0.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.68%, down 1.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.08%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed up on Friday, with the benchmark contract up 1.60%. South American bumper harvest is putting pressure on international soybean prices, but the decline in the new - season US soybean planting area may add weather premium expectations. The high - level Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus, boosting the strength of US soybeans. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint - The direct import pressure of rapeseed meal has decreased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory are suppressing the market price. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint - The cost of rapeseed oil has increased due to the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations is beneficial to the oil market, but the palm oil is under pressure due to the seasonal increase in production. The supply - side pressure of rapeseed oil has decreased, and the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil has increased, limiting the later import volume. However, the high inventory continues to restrict the market price. The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated greatly today, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed opening rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, the trends of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report at 0:00 on the 13th [2]