文章发布时间2025.6.30—00点:10分 比特币现价107750，目前 盘口趋势震荡上行，但近期有滞涨迹象，相信大家和丽盈一样都能看得出来，所以丽盈从短期来看，根据目前K线形态中的顶分型 以及MACD动能柱减弱、成交量低迷的信号，短期市场存在回调压力，若价格跌破MA7支撑位107750，可能继续测试107300或布林带下轨106800的支撑， 最后丽盈建议大家暂时先选择观望，关注价格是否有效跌破107750支撑，或上破108150并伴随成交量放大，若突破上方阻力可跟随多单进场，否则仍需谨 慎，若后续成交量持续低迷，则可能进入弱势格局，需及时止损防范风险，丽盈提醒大家安全第一 今日丽盈点位预测 币圈丽盈：比特币6.30最新行情分析 以太坊现价2435，丽盈发现目前以太坊在2440附近横盘无明显趋势方向，所以丽盈从短期来看，市场处于窄幅震荡整理阶段，价格围绕均线和中轨运行。多 空双方未形成优势，市场或等待外部推动力确认趋势方向，最后丽盈建议在当前震荡阶段，建议保持观望为主，避免在区间内频繁交易。若价格有效突破布 林带上轨2455或下轨2430，可考虑顺势操作。此外，关注成交量变化和MACD柱状动能指标，一旦 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" with an expectation that stock performance will exceed market performance by more than 20% within six months [52]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumer finance and enhancing the financial support for consumption, with a focus on structural monetary policy tools [6][14]. - A comprehensive plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance has been announced, aiming to establish a robust inclusive financial system over the next five years [7][18]. - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a more optimistic outlook for the domestic economy, while still acknowledging challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low inflation [21][19]. Summary by Sections Consumer Finance Policy - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, proposing 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and financial supply [6][14]. - The guidelines include a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and pension loans, aimed at 21 national financial institutions and five systemically important city commercial banks [6][16]. Inclusive Finance Development - The "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for Inclusive Finance" was released on June 26, outlining four basic principles and three key tasks for the next five years [7][18]. - The plan emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive inclusive financial system, enhancing the service capabilities of financial institutions, and improving credit support for small and micro enterprises [7][18]. Monetary Policy Meeting - The second quarter monetary policy meeting on June 23 noted an improved economic outlook, with a focus on maintaining an "appropriately loose" monetary policy while addressing challenges such as low domestic demand [21][19]. - The meeting emphasized the need for flexible policy implementation and support for key sectors through structural monetary policy tools [21][19]. Industry Data - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, total assets of financial institutions grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with the banking sector's assets increasing by 6.8% [22][23]. - Weekly stock trading volume averaged 1.80 trillion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% increase compared to the previous week [41][40]. - The ten-year government bond yield rose by 0.78 basis points, indicating a slight increase in interest rates [47][46].

Core Insights - The financial technology ETF (516860) has shown strong performance, with a 1.49% increase recently and a 13.88% rise over the past week [1] - The Hong Kong regulatory environment for stablecoins is evolving, with the introduction of the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," indicating a shift towards a more structured digital asset market [1] - Leverage funds are increasingly investing in the financial technology sector, with a net financing amount of 174.80 million yuan this month [1] Performance Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, the financial technology ETF has achieved a 108.34% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 8th out of 2888 index stock funds [2] - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 55.92%, with an average monthly return of 10.19% and a historical three-year holding probability of 97.25% [2] Risk and Recovery - The Sharpe ratio for the financial technology ETF is 1.61 as of June 27, 2025, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [3] - The ETF has experienced a relative drawdown of 0.44% this year, with a recovery time of 79 days, the fastest among comparable funds [3] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the financial technology ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [4] - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.039%, indicating the highest tracking precision among similar funds [4] Index Composition - The CSI Financial Technology Theme Index (930986) includes major companies such as Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Runhe Software, with the top ten stocks accounting for 52.03% of the index [4]

盘前要闻 1、中方就美关税谈判再发警告：反对牺牲中方利益，呼吁站在正义一边 类型：宏观 情绪影响：中性 商务部新闻发言人表示，中方乐见各方通过平等磋商解决与美方经贸分歧，但坚决反对任何一方以牺牲 中方利益为代价达成交易，换取所谓关税减免。有评论指出，这是中国商务部对任何与美国达成损害中 国利益贸易协议的国家发出的严厉警告。 2、国常会定调！强化企业科技创新主体地位，深化科技成果转化机制改革 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 上周五晚间国常会提出，加快推进高水平科技自立自强，要围绕"补短板、锻长板"加大科技攻关力度， 巩固和提升优势领域领先地位，加快突破关键核心技术，牢牢把握发展主动权，要切实将科技成果转化 为现实生产力。 3、遏制过度炒作！沪深交易所同步出台新规，ST股涨跌停板放宽至10% 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 沪深交易所同步公告称，拟将各自主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例由5%调整为10%。相关制度 调整有利于股票在更大价格空间消化利好或利空因素。从科创板、创业板运行实践来看，调整价格涨跌 幅限制比例有望缓解主板风险警示股票过度波动，减少连续涨停或跌停现象。 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中国人民银行货币政 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong's stablecoin legislation will take effect on August 1, aiming to create a favorable market environment and necessary regulatory measures to promote the application of stablecoins in various scenarios [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to invest in risk investment funds focused on emerging markets in Asia, supporting green transformation and infrastructure development [1][2] - Hong Kong's exports increased by 15.5% year-on-year, marking 15 consecutive months of positive growth, with significant increases in exports to Vietnam (59%), Japan (20%), and mainland China (18%) [3] Group 2 - The global South, including Asia, is increasingly favoring the use of local currencies for trade settlements, with China being the world's largest trading nation since 2017, accounting for 12.5% of global trade last year [4] - Hong Kong is enhancing its role as the largest offshore RMB business hub by improving RMB liquidity and optimizing financial infrastructure to support financing, payment, investment, and fund allocation needs [4] - The potential of fintech in cross-border trade is significant, aiming to address long-standing issues of slow payment speeds and high costs, with stablecoins offering cost-effective alternatives for payment and capital market activities [4] Group 3 - The visit to Tianjin included representatives from over 20 startups in various fields such as AI, robotics, and fintech, aiming to explore collaboration and resource sharing with local enterprises [5] - The deepening integration of the Asian region is a crucial and irreversible economic development trend, presenting opportunities for Hong Kong to contribute to regional prosperity [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that more Hong Kong brokerages are expected to enter the virtual asset business, driven by recent policy support and market conditions [1][2] - The Hong Kong government has released the "Digital Asset Policy Declaration 2.0," aiming to establish the region as a global innovation center for digital assets, with strategies to optimize laws and regulations, expand tokenized product categories, and promote application scenarios [2] - The brokerage sector is entering an earnings window, with expectations that profitability may exceed forecasts due to favorable market conditions [1][2] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in the ten-year government bond yield, which has been between 1.6% and 1.7%, are anticipated to influence the life insurance sector, potentially leading to a reduction in the preset interest rate for life insurance [2]

Group 1: Policy Declaration 2.0 Overview - Declaration 2.0 represents Hong Kong's determination to become a global leader in the digital asset field, encompassing stablecoins and their surrounding ecosystem [3] - The declaration extends the development expectations for stablecoins to 3-5 years, providing broader development space and application scenarios [2] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - Declaration 2.0 establishes a clear regulatory timeline, with the government set to implement a stablecoin issuer regulatory system starting August 1, 2025 [4] - The Securities and Futures Commission is designated as the main regulatory body for digital asset trading service providers, outlining compliance pathways for market participants [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will act as the frontline regulator for banks involved in digital asset trading, clarifying the execution of regulations [6] Group 3: Tokenization and Asset Development - The declaration establishes a regularized mechanism for the issuance of tokenized government bonds, expanding the application of stablecoins [7] - It provides incentives for the tokenization of real-world and financial assets, including precious metals and renewable energy [8] Group 4: Company Strategy in Stablecoin Sector - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, preparing for H-share issuance, and plans to invest in digital currency and stablecoin technology development [9] - It is engaging with key participants in the stablecoin ecosystem to explore issuance processes and technical solutions [10] - The company aims to leverage its experience in digital RMB to transition from system builders to financial product designers and operators [11] Group 5: Research and Development - The company is conducting research on blockchain technology applications through the Macau Web3 retail payment system, focusing on transaction performance metrics [12] - It is exploring various operational paths in the stablecoin ecosystem based on the regulatory framework established in Declaration 2.0 [14] Group 6: Collaboration and Partnerships - The company is engaging with both multinational and local banks in Hong Kong to explore technical collaboration opportunities [17] - It is also seeking partnerships with non-bank institutions to enhance system construction and service offerings [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the regulatory policies for stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) in Hong Kong are expected to accelerate the development of digital asset ecosystems [1] - The introduction of the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" marks the transition of the digital asset market from a "pilot program" phase to an "implementation and promotion" phase [1] - Brokerage firms are likely to expand into the virtual asset trading service market, which may initiate a wave of license upgrades [1] Group 2 - The digital asset era is anticipated to accelerate its comprehensive launch, with stablecoins and RWA expected to enter a new stage of vigorous development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government has released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," aiming to establish Hong Kong as a global innovation center in the digital asset sector, with a focus on stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWA) as core pillars of the policy [1][2][4] Group 1: Policy Upgrades - The new declaration represents a systematic upgrade from the 2022 version, transitioning from a "testing ground" for digital assets to a more institutionalized, scaled, and global approach [1] - The declaration is structured around the "LEAP" strategy, focusing on compliance regulation, asset tokenization, scenario expansion, and talent development [1] Group 2: Terminology Shift - A significant change in terminology from "virtual assets" to "digital assets" reflects a broader regulatory perspective and a shift in focus, encompassing cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and various forms of tokenized real assets [2] Group 3: Stablecoin Regulation - The declaration emphasizes support for stablecoins and other tokenized projects, particularly exploring the use of stablecoins as payment tools, which could revolutionize payment systems, supply chain management, and capital market activities [2] - A regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers will be implemented starting August 1, 2025, establishing requirements for reserve asset management, stability mechanisms, redemption processes, and prudent risk management [2][4] Group 4: Tokenization of Assets - The Hong Kong government plans to regularize the issuance of tokenized government bonds and promote the tokenization of a wider range of assets and financial instruments, including precious metals and renewable energy [3] - The declaration positions the tokenization of RWA as a key industry development direction, aiming to bridge the gap between the virtual economy and the real economy [4] Group 5: Institutional Innovations - The declaration outlines a clear timeline for stablecoin regulation, with Hong Kong set to become one of the few jurisdictions to provide a "landing pass" for stablecoins, facilitating their legalization and standardization [4] - Tokenized ETFs and digital asset funds, if legislated, will enjoy the same stamp duty and profits tax exemptions as traditional ETFs, significantly reshaping financial market rules and attracting international capital to Hong Kong [4]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that China will approve export applications for controlled items that meet certain conditions, and the US will correspondingly lift a series of restrictive measures against China [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the role of large banks in supporting the real economy and utilizing various financial instruments to stabilize the capital market [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods will be allocated in July [6] Group 2 - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, focusing on systematic regulations across ten aspects [2] - The new version of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law will take effect on October 15, 2025, aiming to enhance market competition order and establish a unified market system [6] - The Hong Kong government released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," aiming to position Hong Kong as a global innovation center in the digital asset field [8] Group 3 - The release of the new generation of domestically developed CPU, Longxin 3C6000, signifies China's advancement in independent technology without reliance on foreign authorization [9] - Alibaba reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, with a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [10] - Xiaomi launched its first SUV, YU7, with significant initial sales, indicating strong market demand for new automotive products [10]