Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is experiencing significant activity, with multiple stocks showing substantial gains due to favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector has seen active performance, with stocks such as Central Plaza, Shanghai Jiubai, Dalian Friendship, and Dongbai Group hitting the daily limit up [1]. - Notable stock price increases include Central Plaza at 10.04%, Shanghai Jiubai at 10.02%, and Dalian Friendship at 10.01% [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent policies from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and financial regulators emphasize collaboration to enhance consumption, including the use of digital RMB smart contract red envelopes [3]. - The central government's focus on expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the coming year is expected to stimulate consumption from both supply and demand sides [3]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The retail sector is positioned to benefit directly from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, particularly for companies with strong offline channels and regional leadership [4]. - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see significant growth starting in 2026, with expectations of profit recovery and performance improvement for leading companies, especially those with brand strength and supply chain capabilities [4]. - The digital RMB initiative is expected to create business expansion opportunities for financial institutions and payment companies, driving demand for terminal upgrades and service needs [4]. - The liquor sector, while still in a bottoming phase, shows signs of stabilization in prices, with expectations for a recovery in performance as inventory levels decrease [4].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 近期矿价高位运行，市场多空因素相互交织， "扩大内需"对大宗商品市场情绪构成支撑，提振远期需 求信心，但基本面仍面临弱现实压力，供给端全球主流矿山发运持续恢复，叠加年末矿山冲量发运，累 库压力未减。需求端铁水产量持续回落，钢厂库存虽已在低位，但盈利压力抑制补库积极性，同时出口 政策收紧与宏观政策落地滞后，制约价格反弹空间。预计短期宏观扰动结束后，矿价或高位小幅回落。 铁矿：市场多空因素交织 矿价仍或有回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary strategy for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market and enhance the quality of goods and services supplied [1][2]. Group 1: Strengthening Domestic Demand - The conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, with a contribution rate of 71% from domestic demand to economic growth in the first three quarters of the year [2]. - Experts highlight that the strategic position of expanding domestic demand has been elevated, with a focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency [2][3]. - The emphasis on "maintaining strategic initiative and enhancing economic resilience" through a strong domestic market is noted as a key objective [2]. Group 2: Boosting Consumption - The focus on "expanding the supply of quality goods and services" aligns with the goal of leading new supply with new demand [4]. - There is a recognition of the mismatch between effective demand and supply, particularly in high-quality products and services, indicating a need for structural improvements [4][5]. - The conference outlines plans to adapt to changes in consumption structure and optimize the implementation of relevant policies to enhance service consumption [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Stabilization - The conference sets a goal to "promote investment stabilization," with plans to increase the scale of central budget investments and utilize new policy financial tools [7]. - It is acknowledged that fixed asset investment growth has been declining, necessitating a strategic response to enhance investment effectiveness [7][8]. - The emphasis on optimizing the management of local government special bonds aims to improve funding efficiency and support major project construction [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumption market has significant growth potential, with a shift towards service consumption expected as GDP per capita approaches $14,000, nearing the $15,000 threshold where service consumption typically accelerates [3][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - By the end of this year, China's GDP per capita is projected to be close to $14,000, indicating a transition towards rapid growth in service consumption [3][8]. - Currently, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure in China stands at 46.1%, which shows considerable room for improvement compared to developed countries [3][8]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - The entry of Generation Z into the workforce is driving new consumption trends, particularly in experiential consumption and local cultural elements [3][8]. - The aging population is contributing to the growth of the silver economy, with increasing demand in sectors such as elderly care, health, and smart home appliances [3][8]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize and expand consumption, it is recommended to maintain a long-term focus on expanding domestic demand, implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][9]. - Specific measures include enhancing income for urban and rural residents, improving employment stability through loan subsidies, and increasing the minimum purchase price for grain [4][9]. Group 4: Consumption Environment Optimization - Suggestions include increasing leisure time for residents by implementing school breaks and paid leave, as well as creating new public holidays to facilitate consumption [5][10]. - There is a call to remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector and to support emerging consumption areas such as e-commerce and low-altitude economy [5][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current challenges in the consumption market are seen as developmental issues, with expectations that as disposable income rises and policies take effect, the consumption market will gradually recover, contributing to stable economic growth [11].

Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the "national subsidy" policy for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs is confirmed for 2026, aimed at stimulating consumption and investment growth in the economy [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The central economic work conference emphasized the optimization of the "two new" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs [2][5]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize various government bond funds and issue ultra-long-term special bonds to support these initiatives [2][3]. - The scale of funding for the "two new" policies will increase to 500 billion yuan in 2025, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods trade-in, marking a 150 billion yuan increase from the previous year [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "two new" policies have significantly contributed to consumption, investment, and economic stability, promoting high-quality development [3][4]. - In the first three quarters, investment in equipment and tools increased by 14% year-on-year, contributing 2 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. - The consumer goods trade-in program has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, with notable increases in the trade-in of automobiles and home appliances [6]. Group 3: Future Directions - The "national subsidy" policy will continue to evolve, with new categories of products added to the trade-in program, including digital devices and various home appliances [8]. - The implementation of personal consumption loans and service industry loans will be supported to enhance consumer demand and service supply [8]. - Future optimization of the "two new" policies may include expanding subsidies to the service consumption sector to further stimulate economic growth [8].

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of self-reliance and internal development in response to external uncertainties and challenges [1][2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as a strategic move for economic stability and security, with a commitment to prioritize domestic market construction in the upcoming economic tasks [3] - Innovation is identified as a key factor for overcoming challenges, with significant emphasis on technological advancements and the establishment of international innovation centers in major regions [4] Group 2 - The upcoming year marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," underscoring the critical nature of economic work for achieving socialist modernization, regardless of global fluctuations [5]

"两新"，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，其中消费品以旧换新政策与普通消费者关系密 切。 新的一年，消费品以旧换新"国补"还会持续吗？ 近日召开的中央经济工作会议在明年经济工作重点任务中明确指出，优化"两新"政策实施。财政部 日前也在相关会议中提出，用好用足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建 设、"两新"工作。这也进一步明确，明年"国补"将继续实施。 稳增长惠民生 扩大内需的有力抓手 近日召开的中央经济工作会议在部署明年经济工作时指出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深 入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务供给。优化"两新"政策实 施。清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。 "两新"工作被认为是扩大内需的有力抓手。 商务部数据显示，今年1—11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人 次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万 件，电动自行车以旧换新超1291万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件。 真金白银的补贴给消费者带来实实在在的价格优惠，也有力推动消费结 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen aims to leverage its advantages as a national economic center, advanced manufacturing base, and international technology innovation hub to achieve new breakthroughs during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus Areas - The city will focus on expanding domestic demand by implementing consumption enhancement actions and building a globally influential consumption center [2] - Shenzhen plans to cultivate new productive forces by transforming the city into a source and incubator of innovation, enhancing technological self-reliance and competitiveness in advanced manufacturing [2] - The city will deepen reform and opening up by advancing comprehensive reform pilot projects and enhancing international cooperation, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2] Group 2: Urban Development and Quality of Life - Shenzhen aims for high-quality urban development by optimizing city structure, enhancing green transformation, and improving governance to create a modern, resilient, and intelligent city [3] - The city will focus on improving public welfare by ensuring equitable access to high-quality public services and aligning resource allocation with population growth [3]

增长背后的硬碰硬 5.2%，放平时可能不算惊艳，但今年这局面能稳住就已经不简单。更关键的是，这个数字不是靠印钞票堆出来的，而是实打实从产业里长出来的。新 能源汽车出口量又拿了全球第一，光伏组件占全球产能八成，这些数字背后都是工厂里机器轰鸣的声音。 以前被卡脖子的芯片制造，今年也有几家企业悄悄实现了技术突破。这种变化不是喊口号喊出来的，是研发人员熬夜熬出来的，是工程师一个参数一 个参数调出来的。 资本市场这两年也变了个样。以前一些行业疯狂烧钱，拼补贴、抢流量，最后钱烧没了，留下一堆烂摊子。今年监管部门没少下功夫整顿，该规范的 规范，该引导的引导。现在踏踏实实做技术、搞产品的企业，反而更容易拿到投资。市场开始认真了，钱也开始往靠谱的地方流。 就业市场也在回暖，虽然没具体数字，但身边找工作的朋友明显感觉机会多了。新能源、数字经济这些新赛道，正在吸纳大量人才。房价还在调整， 但保障房开工量上去了，租房市场也规范了不少，至少不用担心房东突然涨租金或者赶人走了。 中央经济工作会议说了什么 全球投资者都盯着中国的中央经济工作会议，这不是没道理。中国经济体量摆在这儿，任何风吹草动都会影响全球产业链。今年这次会议没搞什么大 转 ...

强化"投资于人"、坚持内需主导、经济转型持续推进 本报记者 孟珂 2025年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展。党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议召开，为推动高质量发展注入强大 动力。在此背景下，如何看待当前中国经济形势，2026年我国经济又将有哪些核心增长点？《证券日报》采访了八大首席经济 学家进行深入解读。 2025年经济韧性凸显 12月份以来，多家国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF（国际货币基金组织）预计2025年中国经济增速为5%，较10月 份预测上调0.2个百分点。世界银行预测为4.9%，较6月份预测上调0.4个百分点。 招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛表示，2026年，财政赤字率预计在4.0%至4.2%之间，赤字规模或较2025年温和增加，专 项债额度可能提升至4.5万亿元至4.7万亿元。超长期特别国债延续发行，规模有望在1.5万亿元至1.7万亿元，继续支持"两重"建 设、城市更新与战略性新兴产业布局。广义财政赤字率可能略抬升至9%左右。 中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛表示，2026年赤字率保持不低于4%，广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右，支出端进一步强化"投资 于人"的领域。 分析原因，温彬表示，考虑 ...