先跟老朋友们复盘下2013年的名场面，新朋友搬好小板凳。 当年4月，美联储放风要缩减QE，金价在两个月内从1550美元暴跌到1200美元，跌幅超20%。 我当时在水贝的柜台，亲眼见一位阿姨抱着刚买的金镯子哭，说给儿子准备的婚房首付跌没了三分之一。 现在回头看，当年的核心逻辑是"宽松预期反转 获 利盘踩踏"，现在这两个雷，正被美联储官员一个个点燃。 昨天刚上班，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆的讲话就刷屏了，他说"当前利率已接近中性，进一步宽松空间有限"，这话翻译过来就是"想降息？ 再等等"。 紧 接着克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克补刀，直言要"保持限制性利率对抗通胀"，等于直接给12月降息泼了盆冷水。 我从业12年，太清楚美联储这套路了，官员集 体"放鹰"从来不是空穴来风，芝商所的数据不会说谎，降息概率一天内掉了12个百分点，这背后是大资金在悄悄撤场。 金至尊今天黄金价格多少一克(2022年6月30日)-其他金店-金投网 可能有人会说，今年金价涨了65%，跌这点算啥？ 这话就太天真了。 2013年暴跌前，金价也连涨了两年，大家都觉得"黄金永远涨"，结果一记闷棍打蒙所 有人。 现在更要警惕的是"买消息卖新闻"的魔咒，美国政府结 ...

2025年11月1日实施的黄金税收新政，对非投资性黄金的税收抵扣规则进行了调整。这直接影响了深圳 水贝市场的黄金交易，导致成本上升和价格调整。有外地的消费者咨询发现，水贝市场内有少量料商可 以低于实时价出售黄金，随即联系跑腿小哥代抢省下了近万元，线下代购黄金这一现象也引发了市民的 热议。 近期，世界黄金协会发布2025年三季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，第三季度全球黄金需求总量 （包含场外交易）达1313吨，需求总金额达1460亿美元，创下单季度黄金需求的最高纪录。 作为当下市场关注度最高的资产之一，黄金起起落落的价格时刻牵动着投资者心弦，现在还是好的投资 时间点吗？ 东方金诚研究发展部副总监瞿瑞表示，投资者需理性看待金价行情，警惕高位波动风险，避免盲目跟风 追涨，需结合自身风险承受能力、资产配置规模及投资周期，合理规划黄金资产占比。 投资者应优化资产配置的风险收益比，关注黄金投资的价格波动风险、流动性风险、机会成本风险等， 在对黄金价格客观分析的基础上力争获得稳健收益。瞿瑞表示，投资者应立足长期逻辑、明确投资目 标，以资产保值、对冲风险为核心，而非单纯追逐短期价差收益，规避盲目追高导致的投资风险。 新闻多 ...

11月14日晚间，金价突然大跳水，现货黄金价格一度大跌3.21%。截至11月15日7时10分，跌幅收窄至2.13%，报4082.159美元/盎司；期货黄金跌幅为 2.62%，报4084.4美元/盎司。 | 14 | | w 商品 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 港股 | 美股 | 全球 | 商品 | 外汇 ■ 不像头 | | 已为您生成昨日市场智评 | | | | 查看 | | 全球商品 | | 中国商品 | 原油 | 黄金白银 | | 贵金属 它 | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | | 伦敦银现 | | COMEX電金 | | 4082.159 | | 50.517 | | 4084.4 | | -88.991 -2.13% | | -1.768 -3.38% | | -110.1 -2.62% | | COMEX白银 | | SHFE貢金 | | SHFE自银 | | 50.400 | | 934.86 | | 11994 | | -2.770 -5.21% | | -24.26 -2.53% | | -446 -3.59% | 近期，世界黄金协会发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, global gold assets have maintained a strong market driven by three main factors: a phase of declining real interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks and uncertainty in U.S. domestic policies, and continued buying by global central banks, particularly from emerging economies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in global real interest rates is influenced by the U.S. fiscal deficit and long-term debt structure, making it difficult for real rates to rise further, while persistent inflation enhances long-term demand for gold [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and deteriorating security in Europe, along with uncertainties following the Trump administration's policies, have structurally increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - Central banks remain the largest buyers of gold, with emerging market central banks continuing to purchase gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent tax policy adjustments in China regarding gold transactions mark a significant structural change in the gold market, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, affecting standard gold transactions [5][6]. - The new tax policies aim to clarify the tax burden and usage of gold, impacting costs for off-exchange gold, price differentials, retail premiums, and the structure of futures and ETFs, rather than directly altering domestic gold prices [6]. - Gold ETFs are expected to be the most affected by the new policies, as the attractiveness of physical gold for secondary sales diminishes, while virtual gold instruments like paper gold and ETFs remain unaffected by the VAT adjustments [10]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The high beta sensitivity of gold assets to macroeconomic trends makes them a preferred choice for quantitative CTA, multi-asset strategies, and discretionary long strategies [5]. - The stricter regulations on gold withdrawal and usage declarations may lead to a decrease in arbitrage scale in futures, potentially increasing price volatility and enhancing the correlation of futures with international gold prices during trending markets [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant drop in gold and silver prices, with spot gold falling by 3.21% and futures gold by 2.62% as of November 15 [1][2]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in the third quarter of 2025, with a total value of $146 billion [2]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of rational investment strategies in gold, advising investors to be cautious of high volatility and to avoid blindly chasing price increases [4]. - Investors are encouraged to optimize their asset allocation based on risk-return ratios and to focus on long-term goals, prioritizing asset preservation and risk hedging over short-term gains [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices, with domestic prices falling by 20 yuan per gram, raises questions about whether this is a buying opportunity or a potential trap for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Domestic gold prices have decreased from 928 yuan per gram to 908 yuan per gram, a drop of approximately 2.15% [1][3]. - Despite the drop in trading prices, retail gold prices remain high, with brands like Chow Tai Fook maintaining prices around 1259 yuan per gram, indicating a significant premium over market rates [1][3]. - The disparity in pricing is attributed to the "premium difference," where investment gold bars fluctuate with market prices, while jewelry prices include craftsmanship and brand premiums [1][3]. Group 2: Causes of Price Decline - The decline in gold prices is driven by a combination of domestic policy changes and international market conditions [2][3]. - A key factor is the new tax policy effective November 1, 2025, which reduces the input tax deduction for non-investment gold, raising costs for businesses and triggering a sell-off [2][3]. - Internationally, easing geopolitical tensions and a decrease in safe-haven demand have contributed to the price drop, as evidenced by a significant retreat from peak prices [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and expectations of further easing have strengthened the dollar, negatively impacting gold's appeal [2][3]. Group 3: Consumer Perspectives - For consumers with immediate needs (e.g., weddings, gifts), it is advisable to purchase gold jewelry now, as prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to craftsmanship costs [5][6]. - Investors are advised to avoid impulsive buying and consider a phased approach to purchasing gold, given the uncertainty surrounding future price movements [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Guidelines - It is crucial to avoid treating gold jewelry as an investment due to high premiums and potential losses upon resale [6]. - Investors should purchase through reputable channels to ensure product quality and proper documentation, especially following the new tax regulations [6]. - Understanding the purpose of gold purchases is essential to avoid penalties related to tax compliance under the new regulations [6]. Group 5: Future Price Trends - Short-term price fluctuations are expected, influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, while long-term trends remain bullish due to ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [7]. - The World Gold Council predicts a long-term price target of around 3800 USD per ounce, indicating potential for future price increases in the domestic market [7].

封面新闻记者杨芮雯 近期，受美联储政策摇摆、全球地缘局势紧张及各国央行持续购金等多重因素影响，黄金市场开启"过山车"式剧烈波动模式。国际金价一路冲高，重回 4200美元/盎司关口，国内上海黄金现货价格同步攀升至958.74元/克左右，单日涨跌交替上演，不仅出现早盘暴跌、午后暴涨的V型反转，更有单日涨幅 超100美元的极端行情。 黄金价格波动大 这波跌宕起伏的走势，既催生了短线操作的盈利机遇，也暗藏高杠杆投资的巨大风险——有人快进快出斩获可观收益，也有人盲目跟风借贷加杠杆，最终 面临账户清零的惨痛结局。11月14日，封面新闻记者对话了多位身处市场一线的投资者与资深行业从业人员，揭秘他们近日以来短线炒金背后的经历和态 度。 金价剧烈震荡 社交平台出现短线"淘金热" 11月14日，接受封面新闻记者采访的00后女孩张甜（化名），分享了她在波动行情中的短线操作经历。国庆前夕，她以890元/克的价格投入20万本金首次 入场，国庆期间金价飙升至905元/克的强劲走势让她果断加码——即便流动资金不足，仍借贷30万加仓330克。 近期，黄金市场正上演"过山车"式剧烈震荡，国际金价在触及4381美元/盎司历史高点后大幅回调，又于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its current valuation, and investment considerations, emphasizing the impact of various factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and market conditions on gold prices [4][6][70]. Historical Performance of Gold - Over the past 200 years, gold has slightly outperformed inflation, with a long-term annualized return of around 0.6% after adjusting for inflation [6][7]. - Since 1971, when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold's long-term annualized return has significantly increased to 8.89% [10][12]. - Gold has experienced three major bull and bear market cycles since 1971, with notable price fluctuations [15][18][20]. Recent Market Trends - Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September 2024, gold and other major asset classes have seen an overall increase [4]. - The current market has experienced a recent correction after a significant rise, coinciding with new tax regulations on gold investments [4][66]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factor affecting gold prices is the U.S. dollar's real interest rate, which is calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate [31][32]. - Other influencing factors include mining costs, geopolitical risks, and financial crises, which often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [37][43][70]. Valuation Assessment - Gold's valuation can be assessed using the ratio of gold price to average mining costs, with a price below mining costs indicating a strong buying opportunity [46][49]. - As of November 3, 2025, gold is rated at approximately 1.1 stars, suggesting it is not currently undervalued [49][64]. Investment Strategies - There are three primary purposes for investing in gold: decorative (jewelry), short-term investment (gold funds), and long-term hedging (physical gold) [55][56]. - Decisions on whether to take profits or continue holding gold should be based on the initial investment purpose and current market conditions [62][64]. Tax Implications - New tax regulations effective November 1, 2025, will impose differentiated tax rates on gold based on its use, affecting the cost of purchasing gold jewelry while maintaining lower costs for investment-grade gold [66][69].

世界黄金协会数据显示，10月，全球实物黄金ETF流入达82亿美元，已连续五个月实现流入。尽管10月流入规模较上月有 所放缓，但仍远高于年初至今的月均流入水平，而前十个月720亿美元的累计净流入则创下历史记录。 截至10月底 资产管理总规模(AUM)增至 UBUZ美元 ® F 较上月环比增长6% 总持仓增长至 9 0 1 1 o 持仓量环比增长1% 截至10月20日 伦敦金午盘价创下了年内的第五十次新高 尽管现货金价(XAU)日回调了5% ● 点击查看更多 亚洲地区 ×域概览 北美与欧洲地区基金 成为主导力量 北美地区 10目流入约 65亿美元国 实现连续第五个月流入 10月 流入约 P f 亿美元($) 创下亚洲历史第二强单月表现 仅次于今年4月的73亿美元 中国市场流入达45亿美元 10月初中美关系紧张局势升温 叠加金价强劲表现 中型分类去半世间:韩国 亚日正版中心四川 ● 点击查看更多 欧洲地区 10月 流出约 45亿美元 (1 终结连续五个月净流入态势 录得该地区历史第二大单月流出额 英国、德国分别创下历史最大与次大月度资 金流出纪录 南非市场则录得约1.18亿美元的资金流出 部分抵消了区域整体表现 波 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance driven by high demand for gold investments, with a significant revenue increase of 33.41% year-on-year to 20.472 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][4] - The gross margin improved in Q3 2025, leading to enhanced profitability, with a net profit margin of 3.67% in Q3 2025, up from 3.57% in Q2 2025 [5][4] - The company is actively expanding its channel layout, with a focus on local marketing and brand promotion, including the opening of new stores [5][4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 20.233 billion yuan, 2025E at 25.346 billion yuan, 2026E at 28.384 billion yuan, and 2027E at 31.337 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 22.2%, 25.3%, 12.0%, and 10.4% respectively [5][6] - The net profit for the company is expected to reach 7.97 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 15 [5][6] - The company’s total market capitalization is currently 116.43 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 778 million shares [3][6]