Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key economic policies and initiatives announced during the press conference of the National People's Congress, focusing on consumption stimulation, debt management, and financial reforms to support economic growth. Group 1: Consumption and Economic Growth - The National Development and Reform Commission will soon implement a special action plan to boost consumption [3] - The contribution rate of China's economic growth to the world remains around 30%, with new industries and business models accounting for over 18% of the total economic value [4] - The private economy's export share increased by 1.4 percentage points to 64.7% last year, with private investment in manufacturing and infrastructure growing by 10.8% and 5.8% respectively [3][4] Group 2: Debt Management - Local government debt risks have been effectively alleviated, with a total of 2.96 trillion yuan in replacement bonds issued as of March 5 [6] - The average interest rate on last year's 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, leading to an estimated reduction of over 200 billion yuan in interest expenses [6] Group 3: Financial Policies - The central government plans to issue 500 billion yuan in special government bonds to support state-owned banks in replenishing core tier-one capital [7] - The central government's transfer payments to local governments will increase by 8.4% to 10.34 trillion yuan this year, focusing on general transfer payments to enhance local financial capacity [8] - The People's Bank of China will consider reducing reserve requirements and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [13][14] Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to accelerate capital market reforms and enhance the inclusiveness of multi-tiered markets [19] - The commission has revised over 50 regulatory rules since the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles," aiming to improve regulatory efficiency [19][20] - The total market value of public funds holding A-shares has increased from 5.1 trillion yuan at the beginning of last year to over 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.4% [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing the need for job creation, stabilizing expectations, and achieving modernization goals [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth Target - The 5% growth target is aimed at creating sufficient new jobs, with approximately 12 million new graduates entering the job market [3]. - Maintaining a stable growth rate of around 5% is crucial for stabilizing market expectations and signaling to investors and consumers that the economy remains resilient [3]. - Achieving the goal of modernization by 2035 requires sustained economic growth of around 5% to reach a per capita GDP close to $30,000 [3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - The report advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to address uncertainties and support economic growth [6][7]. - Increasing the deficit ratio to around 4% and expanding the issuance of special bonds are part of the proactive fiscal measures [7]. - A moderately loose monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity and encourage banks to provide low-cost funding to enterprises [7]. Group 3: Consumer and Investment Strategies - To boost consumption, the focus should be on increasing residents' income, especially for low- and middle-income groups, and optimizing income distribution [9]. - Investment efficiency can be improved by identifying promising industries and projects, supported by favorable government policies [10]. - Expanding domestic demand is essential, especially in light of external pressures, by enhancing both consumption and investment [9]. Group 4: Development of New Productive Forces - Developing new productive forces is necessary for sustained economic growth, moving beyond traditional industries to create new demand through innovation [11]. - Local governments should tailor their development strategies based on regional advantages, avoiding uniform approaches [12]. Group 5: Economic System Reforms - Key reforms include establishing a unified national market to enhance resource allocation efficiency and support the development of the private economy [14][15]. - The government should focus on maintaining order and providing services, stepping back from direct market involvement [16]. Group 6: Risk Management - The real estate market is in a stabilization phase after significant adjustments, requiring supportive policies to ensure healthy development [17]. - Effective management of local debt risks involves setting clear borrowing limits and ensuring that debt is used efficiently [18].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Province has experienced significant population growth, leading the nation in population increase for four consecutive years, attributed to its robust private economy and wealth distribution model [1][11][28]. Population Growth - In 2024, Zhejiang's permanent population reached 66.7 million, an increase of 430,000 from 2023, marking the highest growth among provinces that have reported data [1][5]. - From 2021 to 2024, Zhejiang's population increased by 2.02 million, with annual increases of 720,000 in 2021, 370,000 in 2022, and 500,000 in 2023 [2][3]. Comparison with Other Provinces - Among the 31 provinces, only six have reported population data, with Zhejiang being the only one showing positive growth [1][4]. - In contrast, Guangdong's population growth remains uncertain, with Shenzhen reporting an increase of 199,400, nearly double that of Hangzhou [6][7]. Economic Strength - Zhejiang's private economy is a key driver of its population growth, contributing over 50% of tax revenue, 60% of GDP, and 90% of new employment [11][12]. - The private sector's value added is projected to account for 67.4% of the province's GDP in 2024, with a total of 10.95 million registered businesses [12][15]. Industrial Development - Zhejiang's industrial structure is characterized by a mix of traditional and emerging industries, with a focus on digital economy, advanced manufacturing, and trade services [21][24]. - The province's digital economy is projected to contribute significantly to GDP, with core industry value added expected to reach 7.6 billion yuan in 2024 [24][33]. Wealth Distribution - Zhejiang ranks third in per capita disposable income in China, with an expected income of 67,013 yuan in 2024, significantly higher than many other provinces [28][29]. - The province's cities, including Hangzhou and Ningbo, dominate the list of cities with the highest per capita disposable income [29]. Talent Acquisition Strategies - Hangzhou has implemented aggressive talent acquisition strategies, offering substantial living subsidies to attract high-educated individuals [30][32]. - The city aims to enhance its manufacturing sector, focusing on high-tech industries and innovation-driven development [34][35].

赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 一、主要经济目标设定更务实，相关指标设计讨论充分 主要经济目标设定更加"务实"，对相关指标设计讨论充分。 2025年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，"既是 稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑"；报告也提出"实现这些目标很不 容易，必须付出艰苦努力"。基于5%左右的经济增长目标，政策部署更加灵活，报告指出将"根据形势变 化动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性"，执行层面注重"加强上下联动、横向协 作"。 对可能遇到的困难与挑战，报告表述清醒客观，特别提及关税、内需和执行层面问题。 报告指出"多边贸 易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多"等问题。内部发展方面，报告梳理三大矛盾：需求端"有效需求不足"的结构 性问题，供给端 "部分企业生产经营困难，账款拖欠问题仍较突出"，民生领域"群众就业增收面临压 力"等。同时，报告特别提及"一些地方基层财政困难"，也直指"一些工作协调配合不够，有的政策落地偏 慢 ...

Economic Growth - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a need for increased policy efforts to achieve this goal[7] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate has been adjusted down to 4.9%, with a fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion and a deficit rate of 4%[8] - In 2024, final consumption and capital formation contributed only 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth, highlighting weak domestic demand[7] Price Stability - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a shift in focus from preventing inflation to promoting price recovery[9] - This adjustment indicates a stronger emphasis on price stability within the macroeconomic policy framework[18] Fiscal Policy - The total incremental fiscal funds for this year are projected to reach 2.9 trillion, second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020[25] - The combined fiscal measures (deficit, special bonds, and long-term bonds) amount to 11.86 trillion, an increase of 2.9 trillion compared to last year[25] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be the main theme for 2025, with potential for timely adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements[31] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting real estate, stock markets, and private enterprises[32] Consumption Promotion - Three key areas for consumption policy include subsidies for replacing old products, income support through social security, and improving the consumption environment[33] - The central government has allocated approximately 3,800 billion for consumption incentives, doubling last year's funding[26] Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates[34] - Attention will be given to the progress of land and housing stock acquisition through special bonds[36] Industrial Policy - Discussions on potential new rounds of capacity reduction are ongoing, but any measures are expected to be moderate and market-driven[37] - The focus will be on addressing structural issues in industries facing overcapacity, particularly in emerging sectors[38] Technology and Private Enterprises - The government emphasizes the need for institutional support for private enterprises in national technology innovation projects[45] - There is a stronger commitment to resolving issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises, with funding sources identified for this purpose[45] Energy Consumption - The energy consumption target has been raised to a reduction of 3% per unit of GDP, indicating stricter energy policies moving forward[46] - The actual reduction achieved last year was 3.8%, exceeding the previous target of 2.5%[46] Capital Market - The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance the balance between investment and financing functions[51] - There is a focus on increasing the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market to stabilize investor confidence[51]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced the initiation of its first anti-circumvention investigation against U.S. optical fiber products, which are suspected of circumventing China's anti-dumping measures [1] - The investigation was launched at the request of the domestic industry and will determine whether to impose anti-circumvention measures against the U.S. based on the investigation results [1] - Anti-circumvention investigations are trade remedy investigations aimed at ensuring the effectiveness of existing anti-dumping or countervailing measures, widely used by many WTO members [1]

Group 1: National People's Congress (NPC) Meeting - The 14th NPC's third session will last for 7 days, starting on March 5 and concluding on March 11, with a total of 7 agenda items including the review of the government work report [2] - The NPC aims to enhance the People's Congress system to support the modernization of China, focusing on legislative and supervisory roles, and maintaining close ties with the public [3] Group 2: Legislative Achievements - Since the last NPC session, 39 legal proposals were reviewed, with 24 passed, including 6 new laws and 14 amendments, reflecting progress in the legislative work [4] - Legislative outcomes are aimed at accelerating new productive forces, ensuring citizens' aspirations for a better life, and supporting high-level openness [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy showed a significant recovery with a GDP surpassing 130 trillion yuan, achieving a 5% growth, despite facing external challenges and domestic demand issues [10] - The government remains confident in the long-term positive trend of the economy, emphasizing its resilience and potential [10] Group 4: Private Economy Development - The draft Private Economy Promotion Law is under review, aiming to ensure equal legal protection for all forms of ownership and promote healthy development of the private sector [6] Group 5: International Relations - The essence of China-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit, with trade volume increasing over 200 times since diplomatic relations were established [7] - China emphasizes the importance of stable and healthy China-Europe relations, highlighting mutual benefits and cooperation in various fields [11] Group 6: Defense Budget - China's defense budget has maintained a single-digit growth for nine consecutive years, with the defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP remaining below 1.5%, lower than the global average [14] Group 7: Regional Development - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has seen significant economic growth, with a total economic output exceeding 14 trillion yuan, and improved connectivity among the three regions [16] Group 8: Global South Cooperation - China has been a participant and leader in South-South cooperation, contributing significantly to global economic growth, and aims to strengthen legislative exchanges with other developing countries [17]

Group 1: DeepSeek and AI Development - DeepSeek's significant advancements in AI represent the rise of Chinese companies in the technology sector, showcasing innovation and inclusivity [2][3] - The open-source approach of DeepSeek promotes global application of AI technology, contributing "Chinese wisdom" to the world [3] - The evolution of mobile communication technologies illustrates the importance of open collaboration in achieving market recognition and success [3] Group 2: Private Economy Promotion Law - The Private Economy Promotion Law is crucial for ensuring equal legal protection for various ownership types and enhancing the business environment for private enterprises [6][7] - The law aims to incorporate the Party's policies on private economic development into legal norms, promoting healthy and high-quality growth [7] Group 3: Sino-US Economic Relations - The essence of Sino-US economic relations is mutual benefit, with trade volume increasing over 200 times since diplomatic relations were established [8][10] - China's stance is to resolve trade disputes within the framework of the World Trade Organization, opposing unilateral tariff increases by the US [10][11] Group 4: China's Economic Outlook - Despite facing unprecedented external challenges, China's economy showed resilience with a GDP growth of 5% and a total GDP surpassing 130 trillion yuan [12][13] - The government emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening-up to stimulate economic vitality [13][14] Group 5: Sino-European Relations - Sino-European relations are characterized by mutual benefits and complementary advantages, with significant contributions to global supply chain stability [15][16] - The collaboration between Chinese and Spanish companies exemplifies successful partnerships that create local employment and revitalize brands [16] Group 6: Local Government Debt Management - The issuance of 20 trillion yuan in replacement bonds has commenced to manage local government debt effectively, ensuring fiscal stability [17][18] - The National People's Congress plays a vital role in supervising government debt management and preventing new hidden debt risks [18]

Group 1: Economic Goals and Policies - The GDP target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5.0%, consistent with the previous two years, to align with the goal of doubling the economic total by 2035 and to absorb the 1,222,000 new graduates entering the job market [2] - CPI target is anticipated to be adjusted to around 2.0%, reflecting a cautious approach due to low inflation pressures, with 27 provinces setting their CPI targets similarly [2] - The central government is expected to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with potential adjustments to the deficit rate and an increase in the scale of long-term bonds and local government special bonds [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - The monetary policy is shifting to a moderately loose stance, the first change since 2011, with market expectations for further adjustments [5][6] - The government aims to boost domestic demand by enhancing consumption and investment, with specific policies being developed to stimulate consumer spending and support major projects [7] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Private Economy - The focus on technological innovation is emphasized as a key task for developing new productive forces and modern industrial systems, particularly in light of recent advancements in AI [9] - The central government is reiterating its commitment to support the private economy, with ongoing legislative efforts to create a favorable environment for private enterprises [10] Group 4: External Challenges and Real Estate Market - The government is addressing external uncertainties, particularly regarding trade policies and foreign investment, with plans to stabilize foreign trade and investment [11][12] - The real estate market is a core concern, with measures in place to stabilize prices and improve market conditions, including potential government acquisitions of unsold properties [13][14] Group 5: Capital Market and Demographic Policies - Efforts to stabilize the capital market are ongoing, with initiatives to attract long-term funds and enhance market stability [15] - Demographic policies are under review, with potential new measures to address aging and declining birth rates, including possible incentives for families [17]

文/《清华金融评论》 丁开艳 2月2 4日，民营经济促进法草案提交全国人大常委会二审。草案二审稿吸 收了有的常委会组成人员和地方、企业、社会公众提出的进一步突出法治 保障作用的建议，充实完善了相关内容。草案二审稿增加了多项新规定， 对于全社会稳定预期、振奋信心、凝聚力量，激发民营经济发展动能具有 重要意义。 其二，针对同一检查对象的多个检查事项,应当尽可能合并或者纳入跨部门联合检查范围。 其三，任何单位不得违反法律、法规向民营经济组织收取费用,不得实施没有法律、法规依据的罚 款,不得向民营经济组织摊派财物。 为充分发挥行业协会商会在促进民营经济发展中的作用,草案二审稿增加规定： 有关行业协会商会依照法律、法规和章程,发挥协调和自律作用,及时反映行业诉求,为民营经济组 织及其经营者提供信息咨询、宣传培训、市场拓展、权益保护、纠纷处理等方面的服务。 促进民营经济发展壮大必须进一步强化法治保障 司法部部长贺荣表示，党的二十届三中全会明确提出，制定民营经济促进法。作为我国第一部专 门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，将改革开放以来特别是党的十八大以来党中央、国务院关于 民营经济的方针政策和实践中的有效做法确定为法律制度， ...