投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月12日16时24分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨3.75%，铂金主力收涨1.89%，钯金主力收涨涨1.08%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成 果共识公布。中东、俄乌等地缘异动风险仍存。美国扣押首艘委内瑞拉油轮后，拟再拦截更多船只。③货币属性方面，美国初请失 业金人数创近四年半最大增幅。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，利率政策已处于 良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在 80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催 化剂需求预期强劲。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金 弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Hualian Futures suggests to buy platinum PT2606 opportunistically, citing a global platinum shortage for two consecutive years, with a projected deficit of 992,000 ounces in 2024 and continued shortages in 2025 [2] - The supply of platinum is shrinking while industrial demand is rising, stabilizing jewelry and investment demand, highlighting the supply-demand imbalance that is expected to persist in the coming years [2] - In contrast, palladium demand is under pressure due to the surge in penetration of new energy vehicles in China, leading to limited support for palladium's fundamentals in the short term [2] Group 2 - Galaxy Futures views platinum as having a short-term bullish outlook, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the December FOMC meeting signaling easing, including a 25 basis point rate cut and a bond purchase plan [2] - The market is trading on strong expectations of further Fed rate cuts, with platinum and palladium being part of the precious metals group that is experiencing upward price movements due to increased risk appetite [2] - The fundamentals for platinum indicate a tight supply-demand situation in 2025, with visible inventory showing signs of depletion, providing support for platinum prices [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 the first 流的衍生品综合服务商 DATE 入 期 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 需 有 客 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 0）中长朗观点。中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和大国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行机构勾居 民的配置需求延续等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的偏息均源于公元可获得的资料，国资货分文推商工靠。但不对上这信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证。本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别发资者持放的投资目标、仅资机动需要，投资 者:自行列颐本报告中的任河意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此:投资，责任自负。本报告似向推定客户推选。未经国贸联货投资许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为您的成团贸雅货的专贸 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC EN B 4月1日 1 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - long - term upward trend of gold and the precious metals sector remains unchanged, and investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance in precious metals trading [4][5] - The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The dovish tone of the Fed's interest - rate meeting pushed down the US dollar index and drove up precious metals prices. Silver prices have been running strongly recently, and there is still significant room for growth in 2026, but short - term adjustment risks should be noted [4] - In the short - to - medium term, London gold needs to move within the range of $3880 - $4380 per ounce to accumulate momentum for a new breakthrough. In the medium - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - The precious metals intermediate bull market since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [5] - After the significant decline in gold and silver prices since late October, the internal adjustment risks have been partially released. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long again when technical and fundamental factors resonate [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed cut the target policy rate range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, with three policymakers voting against it. The Fed hinted at a possible pause in further rate cuts, and the market expects two rate cuts in 2026 [17] - US President Trump said that the US seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, which intensified the tension between the US and Venezuela and pushed up oil prices [17] - ECB President Lagarde said that the eurozone economy has shown resilience in the face of trade tensions, and the ECB may raise its economic growth forecast next week. The market believes there is no need to adjust interest rates [18]

贵金属日报 2025-12-12 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.24 %，报 969.80 元/克，沪银涨 4.56 %，报 15008.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4309.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 63.98 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.14%，美元指数报 98.34 ； 昨日公布的美国周度失业数据差于预期，进一步强化市场对于联储后续宽松政策的定价，贵金 属及有色价格表现强势。美国 12 月 6 日周度初请失业金人数为 23.6 万人，高于预期的 22 万 人以及前值的 19.2 万人。 周四凌晨美联储议息会议进行鸽派降息操作，同时重启扩表，令金银价格得到支撑： 1.内部分歧方面: 联储官员投票结果鹰派程度低于市场预期，仅古尔斯比和施密特投出反对 票，并非是高达 4-5 个票委的不赞同降息。特朗普派系的米兰依旧支持降息 50 个基点。 2. 自 12 月初停止 QT 后，美联储开始扩表操作，但范围限定 ...

高盛11日表示，其对2026年底黄金价格每盎司4900美元的预测存在很大的上涨空间。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格上涨2.946美元，收于每盎司63.975美元，涨幅为4.83%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约12月11日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 11日上涨84.6美元，收于每盎司4309.3美元，涨幅为2.00%。 受白银市场强劲上涨的提振，黄金价格当日大幅上涨，白银价格则再创新高。技术性买盘强劲，美联储 降息均支持黄金、白银价格。美元指数当日跌至六周低点，也进一步提振了市场对贵金属的买盘兴趣。 美国劳工部11日公布的数据显示，截至4日当周，经季节性调整后的失业救济金首次申请人数为23.6万 人，较上周修正后的19.2万人增加了4.4万人。该数据远低于预期，此前市场普遍预期申请人数为22万 人。 ...

黄金行情分析：美联储降息落地提振贵金属，金价多头延续下需警惕回落震荡 美联储在内部意见分歧背景下，如期实施25个基点降息举措，尽管决策者对2026年进一步宽松政策持谨慎态度，但降 息落地仍为贵金属市场注入强劲上行动力。美联储主席鲍威尔在利率决议后新闻发布会上明确表态，后续政策行动大 概率不会转向加息，进一步强化市场宽松预期，为金价中期走势奠定支撑。 当前金价已成功突破前期上行区间，稳固运行于4200美元整数关口上方，多头趋势显著增强。K线走势呈现连续收阳 格局，强势特征清晰，MACD指标正动能持续扩张，动能支撑充足；RSI指标虽处于强势区域，但尚未触及极端超买区 间，整体趋势健康，仍具备上行空间。从核心驱动来看，利率走向仍是主导金价的关键因素，降息周期的延续将持续 为黄金提供中期支撑，不过地缘政治局势潜在缓和可能对金价形成扰动，制约单边上涨节奏，后续需重点跟踪美国就 业数据、经济放缓程度及乌克兰和谈进展，精准把握行情波动逻辑。 日线级别呈现三连阳走势，虽均为小阳线，未展现极致强势格局，但多头趋势连贯且稳固，上行结构完整。布林带呈 开口向上形态，上轨压制大概率位于4285附近，随着多头动能逐步积累，日线级别的放 ...

Group 1 - The international silver price has risen significantly this year, with an increase of over 100% and briefly surpassing the important threshold of $60 per ounce [1] - The rise in silver prices is closely linked to changes in global macroeconomic expectations, particularly the potential for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy due to weakening economic data in the U.S. [1] - The supply situation for silver has also changed, with a reduction in freely circulating inventory as large investment products have been accumulating physical silver, leading to increased demand for spot silver [1] Group 2 - Domestic investment sentiment has stabilized compared to earlier periods, with a decrease in the "hoarding silver" phenomenon as prices rise, indicating a more rational approach from consumers and investors [2] - Industry opinions on future silver price trends are mixed, with some international institutions optimistic about maintaining strong prices if industrial demand remains robust, while others warn of high volatility and sensitivity to policy changes [2] - Short-term silver prices are expected to fluctuate around global monetary policy expectations, while medium-term trends will depend on changes in physical supply and demand, and long-term performance will hinge on stable industrial consumption growth [2]

10日国际金价小幅下跌 贵金属方面，美联储"鹰派"降息，部分投资者担忧美联储明年降息幅度比预期更窄，因而减少持仓，国际 金价周三小幅下跌。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月交割的黄金期价收于每盎司4224.7美元，跌幅为 0.27%。受现货库存下降、工业需求持续增长，以及美国联邦政府将白银列入关键矿产清单等因素影响， 白银期货价格延续涨势，周三再创历史新高。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年3月交割的白银期价收于每盎 司61.029美元，涨幅为0.31%。 白银期价再创历史新高 来源/央视财经 ...

·银河期货表示，由于此前市场对于美联储本次会议"鹰派降息"的预期较高，而本次会议上不仅如期降 息，且开启了技术性扩表——启动储备管理购买计划（RMP），鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的措辞也并不 强硬，因而提振了市场情绪，美元指数走弱，金银双双走强，且白银继续刷出新高。往后市看，预计贵 金属整体在降息通道和流动性更充裕的环境下有望维持偏强走势，且白银在宏观和基本面的共振下预计 上方仍有空间。但需要注意当前美联储内部分歧加大（本次3位投下反对票的票委中有2位认为应维持利 率不变），且美联储对于明年的降息指引仅有一次，后续需要更多的劳动力和通胀数据来对未来的降息 节奏进行指引。 ·五矿期货表示，哈塞特在被问及"若被提名为新任联储主席，是否会进行大幅降息"的问题时表示"当前 具备这么做的条件"。国际银价在新任联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态明确鸽派后出现强势上涨，白银 市场交易的核心逻辑仍是联储主席换届完成后联储独立性所受到的冲击以及后续可能存在的激进降息操 作。本次美联储议息会议进行鸽派降息操作，同时重启扩表，令金银价格得到支撑，目前银价已经进入 加速上行阶段，短周期小时级别的技术形态破位都可能成为白银短期见顶的时点。 ·东证 ...