Market Observations - The implied volatility of USD/CNY options has been declining, indicating reduced market expectations for future volatility[4] - The current three-month USD/CNY implied volatility is at 0%[6] Policy Insights - The counter-cyclical factor is hovering around 0%, suggesting limited intervention in the currency market[10] - The three-month CNH HIBOR-SHIBOR differential shows a fluctuating trend with no clear direction[14] Macroeconomic Trends - The Federal Reserve is pricing in a 43.5 basis point rate cut by 2025, reflecting a slight decrease in expectations for rate cuts[18] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of marginal decline, with recent economic activity slightly down and concerns over consumer spending and labor market stability[21] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls showed a moderate decline in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%[22] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing to inflationary pressures[22] Fiscal Developments - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates a $2.4 trillion increase in deficits from 2025 to 2034 due to new legislation[23] - The proposed legislation includes significant tax reforms and spending cuts, which may impact economic growth and federal revenue[24]

智通财经APP获悉，周四，三大指数上涨，美国通胀似乎正在向美联储2%的目标迈进，而劳动力数据 显示失业率可能会上升。5月PPI小幅上升0.1%，申请失业救济人数仍保持在24.8万人的高位。这些因素 加在一起，增强了人们对美联储可能在今秋初降息的预期。美国商务部宣布将自6月23日起对多种钢制 家用电器加征关税，包括洗碗机、洗衣机和冰箱等"钢铁衍生产品"。据悉，对大多数国家设定50%的关 税将影响这些钢铁制品的进口，可能导致消费价格上涨，行业利益相关者正在密切关注事态发展。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨101.85点，涨幅为0.24%，报42967.62点；纳指涨46.61点，涨幅为0.24%，报 19662.48点；标普500指数涨23.02点，涨幅为0.38%，报6045.26点。英伟达(NVDA.US)涨1.5%，特斯拉 (TSLA.US)跌超2%，波音(BA.US)跌4.7%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.44%，小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)跌近 6%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌202.78点，跌幅0.85%，报23773.33点；英国富时100指数涨20.13点，涨幅 0.23%，报8884.48点；法国C ...

英国经济遭遇关税冲击波。 今日，英国公布的官方数据显示，受关税冲击，英国4月GDP环比增速由正转负，萎缩程度达0.3%，远超预期 的收缩0.1%。另外， 4月份英国对美国的商品出口出现了自1997年有记录以来的最大月度降幅。 相比之下，4月份英国建筑业、研发业和零售业表现强劲，这些行业的增长仅部分抵消了其他行业的下滑。 回顾此前披露的数据，2025年第一季度，英国经济增长0.7%，超过七国集团其他发达经济体的增长速度，促 使英国央行上个月将英国经济全年增长预测上调至1%。 数据发布后，英镑兑美元汇率一度直线跳水。另外，欧洲多国股指走低，截至北京时间21:00，德国DAX30指 数跌0.96%，意大利富时MIB指数跌0.79%，法国CAC40指数跌0.43%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%；英国富时 100指数则小幅上涨0.16%。 受此影响，市场对英国央行的降息预期飙升。交易员增加了对英国央行降息的押注，预计今年将降息52个基 点。另有分析称，英国就业市场的降温速度也比预期的更快，英国央行将采取降息措施，可能会在2025年8月 下调基准利率，并可能在11月及2026年进一步下调。 英国经济意外萎缩 当地时间6 ...

德国智库IFO：预计德国失业率将在2025年上升至6.3%，随后在2026年下降至6.1%。 ...

意大利第一季度季调后失业率 6.1%，预期6%，前值6.10%。 ...

意大利一季度失业率 6.1%，预期 6%，前值 6.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The employment report for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, surpassing the market consensus of 125,000, but significant downward revisions to previous months overshadow this positive signal [1] - The initial estimate for March's job growth was revised down from 224,000 to 120,000, indicating a trend of downward adjustments in employment data [1] - The average downward revision of initial estimates to third estimates for non-farm employment data since January 2023 has been approximately 30,000 jobs per month [1] Group 2 - The rising frequency of employment data revisions may be attributed to small businesses delaying data submissions, which are most affected by high interest rates and tariff costs [3] - Small businesses are described as "canaries in the coal mine," facing significant financial challenges that lead to cautious hiring and capital expenditure decisions [3] - Employment in retail, wholesale, and transportation logistics is expected to decline by 50,000 by the end of the year due to the fading "front-loading" effect of tariffs [3] Group 3 - The NFIB small business hiring intentions index has dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a slowdown in hiring intentions [3][6] - A regional Federal Reserve survey shows that hiring intentions are below the average levels from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a correlation between hiring intentions and actual employment growth [7] - The government sector is also expected to see a reduction in jobs, with a decrease of 59,000 positions this year, including a drop of 22,000 in May [10] Group 4 - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% by December, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the labor market [10] - Despite the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, the underlying weakness in the labor market suggests that a shift towards easing policies may be necessary to support businesses [11]

韩国5月失业率 2.7%，预期2.7%，前值2.70%。 ...

Group 1 - The UK job market shows signs of distress, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years, but this may not prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting due to persistent inflation above target levels [1] - Average regular wages in the UK increased by 5.2% over the three months to April, which, despite a slowdown, remains above inflation levels, causing concern for the Bank of England regarding potential inflationary effects [2] - The Bank of Japan faces significant obstacles to raising interest rates this year, including the impact of US tariffs on the domestic economy and price levels, as well as government economic stimulus measures [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that Japan is still some distance from achieving the 2% inflation target, which has led to a depreciation of the yen, although he denied the possibility of rate cuts [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance and not lower interest rates in the short term, as uncertainties related to tariffs and the labor market persist [2] - Analysts suggest that the worst effects of US tariffs may end by January 2026, with expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates in that timeframe while keeping rates unchanged in the fiscal year 2026 [3]

智通财经6月10日电，英国2-4月ILO失业率4.6%，预期4.6%。 ...