今年下半年，扩内需增量政策信号持续释放；"反内卷"将是重要政策议题；围绕稳住楼市股市，下半年 仍会有政策部署……近日，多部门召开经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作 重点。 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，上半年 GDP（国内生产总值）增速达到5.3%。近日，多部门召开 经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作重点。专家表示，下半年政策主线仍将 聚焦扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市等方面。 全方位扩大内需 全方位扩大国内需求是今年重点任务之首，下半年扩内需增量政策信号持续释放。 7月16日召开的国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署，涉及扩大新兴服务业等领域投资、优化消费品以旧换新政策等。 "扩大内需""提振消费"成为各部门提及下一步施策重点时的高频词。近日，财政部在上半年财政收支情 况新闻发布会上提到，下一步将按照《提振消费专项行动方案》部署，加快出台提振消费增量政策举 措，引导地方提升消费环境，优化消费供给。国家发展改革委则多次强调，扩围提质实施"两新"政策， 加力实施"两重"建设。 消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要抓手。据 ...

政策连续，兼顾长短 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 7 月政治局会议点评 本报告导读： 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五 五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定 2025 年 10 月召开中共 四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形 势和部署下半年经济工作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形 势的判断相较 4 月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下 半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在 即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与 2020 年 7 月政治局会 议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于 人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： huangrunan@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523080001 证 券 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.30 20 ...

Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was recorded at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[8] - Achieving the annual target growth rate of 5% is deemed feasible, with a projected 4.7% growth rate needed in the second half[8] Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized "enhancing flexibility and foresight" in policy implementation, indicating a proactive approach to potential external shocks[3] - Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy aims to maintain ample liquidity and reduce overall financing costs[10] Market Stability - The government aims to prevent inflation from rising rapidly, with expectations for the price level to remain moderate and controllable throughout the year[4] - The focus on high-quality investment and structural tools in monetary policy suggests a cautious approach to broad interest rate cuts[12] Risk Management - Key risks include uncertainties surrounding US-China tariffs and the potential for slower export growth in Q3[6] - The meeting highlighted the need for systematic debt risk management, particularly regarding local government debt[15] Consumer and Investment Focus - Policies will prioritize stimulating domestic demand, with an emphasis on service consumption and improving living standards to support sustained consumption[13] - The government aims to invigorate private investment and ensure effective investment in key projects to support economic growth[14]

Group 1 - The meeting on July 30, 2025, decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October 2025, focusing on the formulation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a foundational stage for building a modern socialist country, emphasizing the need to adapt to challenges and opportunities [1][2] - The meeting reiterated the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," aiming for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to avoid disjointed efforts [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of unleashing domestic demand potential, particularly in the context of weak external demand [2] - It emphasized the need for continuous reform and opening up to enhance high-quality development and structural dynamics [2][3] - The meeting underscored a "zero tolerance" approach to risks in key areas, ensuring social stability through comprehensive planning for livelihood security [2][3] Group 3 - The meeting acknowledged the profound changes in the global landscape, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain restructuring, alongside internal structural issues like local government debt and youth employment pressure [3] - It called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency while maintaining a focus on key areas such as infrastructure and technology innovation [3] - The meeting stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, ensuring food security, and enhancing social assistance systems to improve overall resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to enhance its macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges and ensure a stable recovery in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1]. - China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that these policies are effectively executed to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The article calls for the effective use of proactive fiscal policies, including the acceleration of issuing and utilizing ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2]. - It stresses the need for increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to boost demand and improve market expectations through timely issuance of bonds and efficient approval processes [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2]. - The meeting emphasized the use of structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Supply Quality - The focus should be on promoting consumption to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, including the continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy program with a budget of 138 billion yuan [3]. - There is a need to improve supply quality through deepening reforms, fostering new competitive industries, and integrating technological and industrial innovations [3]. Group 5: Capital Market - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4]. - The article suggests that a stable capital market and asset prices are essential foundations for consolidating the economic recovery trend [4].

央视网消息：7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。专家表示，这次会议对于"十四五"圆 满收官，开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，指明了重要方向。 会议指出做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目 标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：上半年我们的经济增长实现了良好的开局，平稳的增长，这都得益于我们实施了更加积极有为的宏观 政策。所以为了下半年要保持经济持续稳定增长，需要我们在政策方面要保持它的持续性和稳定性。下半年会发生一些变化，跟上半年有不一 样的地方，这种情况下就必须要增加政策的灵活性，要使得我们的政策更加精准发力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：我们的服务消费的占比越来越高，而且随着我们的生活水平的提高，服务消费是消费升级的主要的方 向，这种情况下，中央政治局的会议也提出，下半年我们在继续扩大商品消费的同时，要注重培育服务消费新的增长点。 专家表示，培育服务消费新增长点既能够改善民生，符合老百姓对美好生活的向往，同时又能够扩 ...

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 31 日 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 30 日，万得全 A 开盘小幅上涨，午后跳水后有所回升，收跌 0.40%，超 3500 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.02%、0.65%、0.82%，上证 50 收盘上涨 0.38%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。指数期 货表现弱于现货，IF、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.12%、0.76%、0.87%，IH 主力 合约收涨 0.21%（按前一交易日收 ...

中新社北京7月30日电 中新社记者 王恩博 中国"十四五"规划将于今年底收官，下半年经济走势如何，既关乎完成全年发展目标，也关乎为又 一个五年画上圆满句号。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，传递多重有力信号。 ——经济顶压前行展现活力 在今年二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大的情况下，中国经济表现好于预期。 除了上半年5.3%的国内生产总值(GDP)增速快于去年同期和全年，人流、物流、资金流都在改善。 一个突出例子是，上半年中国市场销售环比逐季增长，社会消费品零售总额达24.55万亿元人民 币，52%的经济增长由消费这架"主引擎"贡献。 政治局会议对此给予肯定，认为中国经济"展现强大活力和韧性"。会议提醒，要"用好发展机遇、 潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"。 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉分析称，中国经济的体量、韧性以及产业领域 积累的深厚基础、关联关系等，是当前经济稳健运行的强有力保障。加之经营主体的能力和本领在市场 竞争中不断提高，积极应变能力增强，共同助力中国经济在政策推动下稳中有进。 ——宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 这种广受市场认可的 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve economic goals for the year [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the livelihood orientation of policies [2][3] - There is a need to boost consumer confidence and continue implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, as the recovery of the consumption market still requires solid foundations [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while also increasing commodity consumption [3][4] - Service consumption is seen as a key driver for improving livelihoods and promoting consumption industry upgrades, which will help achieve a rapid growth in overall consumption [3][4] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting called for specific arrangements to deepen the construction of a unified national market, optimizing market competition order and regulating chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] - There is a focus on controlling new production capacity and optimizing existing capacity in industries facing severe competition, as well as regulating local government investment behaviors [5] - Strengthening the role of price regulation and quality standards is crucial for allowing high-quality products to thrive in the market [5]

近期，在经济平稳运行、股债"跷跷板"效应及资金面波动等因素的综合影响下，国债期货明显回调。短 期债市仍面临走弱压力，需警惕长债、超长债的价格波动风险。 经济运行总体平稳 2025年上半年，在复杂多变的国内外环境中，经济整体表现稳健。实际GDP累计同比增长5.3%，其中 一季度当季增长5.4%，二季度当季增长5.2%，为全年实现5.0%左右的增速目标奠定了较好基础。 2025年上半年，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%，表现超预期向好，主要得益于全球经济景气度回 升、中美关税缓冲期下的"抢出口"及转口贸易增长等因素。6月单月，工业增加值同比增速较上月加快1 个百分点，至6.8%。5月中旬中美达成多项积极共识后，6月出口金额同比增长5.8%，较5月提高1个百 分点。随着关税争端缓和，对美出口显著放量，带动工业增加值同步大幅增长。 2025年上半年，固定资产投资增速有所回落。6月单月，固定资产投资同比增速较5月下行0.1个百分 点，至-0.1%，为2022年以来首次单月负增长，三大行业同步走弱。其中，房地产开发投资同比降幅扩 大0.9个百分点，至12.9%；制造业投资与广义基建投资同比增速分别较5月下行3.4和5个 ...