Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade showed resilience in the first half of the year, with a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% despite global economic challenges and rising trade protectionism [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - The export of high-end equipment increased by over 20%, and the export of "new three samples" products accelerated [1] - Trade with over 190 countries and regions experienced growth, indicating a broadening of trade partnerships [1] Group 2: Strategic Focus - Emphasis on enhancing hard power through quality supply to boost foreign trade development [1] - Transitioning from price and cost advantages to technological comparative advantages, highlighting the increasing value of "Made in China" [1] - Focus on high-end, intelligent, and green transformation trends in industries to improve the added value and technological content of export products [1] Group 3: Market Expansion - The need to explore new markets while consolidating traditional ones to mitigate risks from market fluctuations [2] - Importance of capturing diverse consumer demands and providing customized products to adapt to changing international market conditions [2] Group 4: Collaborative Networks - Deep integration into global supply chains and sharing development opportunities with other countries through various sectors, such as textiles and agriculture [2] - The establishment of a unified national market in China is expected to provide new opportunities for global trade [2] Group 5: Competitive Advantage - China's comprehensive competitive advantage in foreign trade remains solid, with a focus on maintaining strategic determination and stimulating potential vitality [2] - The steady progress of China's foreign trade is anticipated to inject stronger momentum into the country's economic development and contribute to global trade growth [2]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and that the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on consolidating foundations and comprehensive development [1][2] - The economic indicators for the first half of the year showed a GDP growth of 5.3%, leading to an upward revision of China's economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for flexible and anticipatory macroeconomic policies to address potential challenges while seizing development opportunities [2][3] Group 2 - The focus on addressing "involution" in industries, particularly in the automotive sector, indicates a shift towards regulated competition and the promotion of consumer confidence [3][4] - The meeting called for effective measures to unleash domestic demand, particularly through initiatives to boost consumption and develop new growth points in service consumption [5] - Specific actions were proposed to support foreign trade enterprises, enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets, and stabilize the real estate market through urban renewal efforts [6]

Group 1 - The management measures emphasize incentive constraints to optimize industrial layout and strengthen industrial regulation [1] - The government investment funds are guided to invest in or withdraw from industries encouraged or restricted by the state, preventing local governments from using these funds to subsidize overcapacity sectors [1] - An evaluation system will be established to assess fund direction policy alignment, covering the entire fund operation management process with both quantitative and qualitative indicators [1] Group 2 - A negative behavior list for investment direction is set, and funds exhibiting such behaviors will not undergo evaluation for that year [2] - Existing government investment funds that do not comply with the guidelines will be encouraged to exit in an orderly manner after their term, while ensuring the protection of legal rights of operating entities [2]

Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the strong vitality and resilience of the economy in the first half of the year, while urging caution for the second half[2] - The focus for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be on actively expanding domestic demand and responding to external changes, particularly in manufacturing investment and service consumption[2][3] Policy Direction - The macro policy will continue to exert force and adapt as necessary, with a key emphasis on effectively releasing policy effects and potential for domestic demand[3][4] - Fiscal policy will prioritize the implementation of existing policies, focusing on quality rather than quantity, to enhance the fiscal multiplier effect[4] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds is expected to maintain a certain intensity in Q3, with a focus on consumption and investment[4] - There is a higher probability of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in Q4 compared to Q3, given the economic pressures[5] Domestic Demand and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, with a focus on service consumption growth and investment in urban renewal projects[5][6] - Urban development is shifting from expansion to quality improvement, emphasizing the renovation of existing structures and infrastructure upgrades[6] Market and Trade Stability - The meeting underscored the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with policies aimed at maintaining a solid foundation in these areas[6] - There is a continued emphasis on stabilizing the stock market to attract long-term capital and maintain market momentum[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and lay a solid institutional foundation for high-quality economic development [1] - The current market faces issues such as local trade protection, high industry entry barriers, and household registration system restrictions, which hinder the free flow of goods and factors [1] - To improve market economic efficiency and release scale effects and division of labor dividends, it is essential to eliminate these barriers [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of regulating "disorderly competition" among enterprises, suggesting that a clear definition of "disorderly competition" is necessary to avoid a one-size-fits-all approach in governance [1] - It is recommended to refine rules to distinguish between legitimate and malicious competition, aiming to curb disruptive market behaviors while protecting corporate innovation vitality [1] - In terms of capacity governance, addressing excess capacity and reducing low-level competition is crucial for stabilizing macroeconomic conditions and promoting high-quality industry development [2] Group 3 - The article highlights the need for standardized policies to regulate local government investment attraction behaviors, as excessive competition among local governments can burden finances and disrupt fair market conditions [2] - Establishing a unified policy benchmark is necessary to prevent local governments from engaging in harmful competition through "policy lowlands," ensuring that all enterprises compete on an equal footing [2] - Emphasizing the importance of the "two unwavering" principles, the article suggests that enhancing the operational confidence of private enterprises is vital for current economic development [2]

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 李雁争）7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，要坚定不移深化改革。 坚持以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业，推动科技创新和产业 创新深度融合发展。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无 序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激发各类经营主体活 力。 对此，清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩接受上海证券报记者采访表 示，这些部署涵盖科技创新、产业创新、市场秩序优化、重点行业治理等领域，将通过系统性改革夯实 高质量发展基础，为全面建设社会主义现代化国家注入强劲动力。 针对重点行业产能治理，他指出，这是供给侧结构性改革的延续与深化，旨在通过淘汰落后产能，引导 资源向高附加值、绿色低碳领域集中，推动产业结构向更高质量升级。而规范地方招商引资行为，将有 效遏制地方间的政策"内卷"和恶性竞争，从制度层面优化整体投资环境，促进区域协调发展。 田轩强调，会议重申"两个毫不动摇"意义重大，这一部署将切实保障各类经营主体在市场中的平等地 位，通过 ...

Core Points - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized the importance of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, which will focus on the economic situation and work for the second half of the year [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" will set the direction for national economic and social development, highlighting the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks [2][3] - The meeting identified four major advantages for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period: the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the advantages of a super-large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [2][3] Economic Policy and Strategy - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policies, effective release of domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and ensuring social welfare [4][5] - It was noted that China's economy showed resilience with a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, but there are concerns about investment slowdown and real estate market fluctuations [5] - The meeting emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance policy effectiveness and support economic recovery [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting stressed the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential and expanding consumption, particularly in the service sector [7] - It highlighted the need to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and to view the service industry as part of the real economy [7] Reform and Market Development - The meeting reiterated the commitment to deepen reforms, promote technological innovation, and enhance the integration of technology and industry [8] - It emphasized the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and governance [8][10] International Trade and Foreign Investment - The meeting recognized the need to expand high-level opening-up and stabilize foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of increased uncertainties in international trade [10][11] - Specific measures were proposed to support foreign trade enterprises and optimize export tax rebate policies [10]

Economic Outlook - The assessment of the economic situation has become more positive, with major economic indicators performing well, leading to a projected economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, exceeding the annual target[3] - Concerns over external shocks have significantly eased, reflecting the effectiveness of measures taken against the recent tariff war with the U.S.[3] - The focus of future economic work is expected to shift towards enhancing domestic circulation and improving quality and efficiency[3] Policy Adjustments - Supply-side quality enhancement has re-emerged as a policy focus, emphasizing technological innovation and the development of internationally competitive emerging industries[4] - The macroeconomic policy stance has shifted to a more neutral tone, with potential for minor interest rate cuts, particularly a 10 basis point reduction expected in August[5] - Fiscal policy remains cautious, with a low probability of increasing special bond issuance, while emphasizing the need to effectively release domestic demand potential[5] Real Estate and Capital Markets - The focus of real estate policy is shifting from stimulating incremental demand to high-quality urban renewal, with a more cautious approach to urban development[6] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in capital market recovery[6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes stability over innovation for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasting with the previous focus on seizing opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Direction - The urgency for macroeconomic policy has decreased, shifting from "accelerated implementation" in April to "timely reinforcement" in July, indicating less pressure to boost domestic demand due to strong external demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for policy continuity and stability, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with limited incremental policies [2] - Key areas of focus include technology innovation, boosting consumption, supporting small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, with major economic provinces taking a leading role [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage, gradually phasing out inefficient investments, and prohibits new hidden debts for local governments, which may pressure local infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy has shifted from supporting the real economy to promoting a reduction in social financing costs, benefiting residents and enterprises broadly, with a focus on interest rate transmission mechanisms [3] - Consumer demand remains a priority, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth points in service consumption and improving livelihoods rather than just increasing income [3] Market Regulation and Competition - The meeting introduced the need to standardize local investment attraction practices, continuing the "anti-involution" policy direction, and aims to reshape market competition order [5] - The approach to supply-side reform differs from 2015, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative shutdowns, leading to a more moderate impact on prices [5] Foreign Trade and Capital Markets - Increased support for foreign trade enterprises was noted, with a focus on enhancing financing support for those significantly impacted by tariffs [5] - The capital market is expected to further open up, with an emphasis on maintaining a healthy market trend and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [6] Urban Development - The meeting underscored the transition of urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement, aligning with the central urban work meeting's spirit [6] Commodity Market Outlook - The supply-side reform's impact on market competition is expected to be less forceful compared to previous measures, while demand-side policies are shifting towards the implementation of existing measures, leading to a moderate overall stimulus [8] - The previous bullish sentiment in commodities may stabilize as capacity reduction and demand expansion efforts are yet to be fully realized [8]

中国宏观经济研究院党委书记、院长黄汉权在7月30日习近平经济思想2025年会上回答证券时报记者提 问时表示，全国统一大市场建设与构建新发展格局密切关联。内循环、外循环都需要通过市场进行，市 场规模越大，市场范围越广，要素资源才能在更广阔的空间、更加高效地流动。全国统一大市场建设是 构建新发展格局的重要内容，目前全国统一大市场建设仍然面临一些堵点、卡点，我们看到的地方保 护、市场壁垒都只是现象性的问题，本质上是体制机制的问题。在政绩考核、财税体制、统计等方面加 大力度破解卡点、堵点，才能顺利推进全国统一大市场建设，助力加快构建新发展格局。(人民财讯) ...