Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised; the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time; precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long; steel products are likely to remain weak, and investors can short at high levels; iron ore may experience a correction, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; coking coal and coke may stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider buying at low levels; ferroalloys may be considered for low - level long positions after losses in the spot market widen; crude oil and fuel oil are recommended for temporary observation; polyolefins can be considered for long positions; synthetic and natural rubber are expected to fluctuate; PVC requires attention to supply - side changes; urea has limited downside space; PX and PTA may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes; ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes; short - fiber may fluctuate with costs; bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations; lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom; copper may have a technical correction risk; aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level; zinc should be chased with caution; lead may continue to fluctuate; tin may fluctuate strongly; nickel may fluctuate; soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range; palm oil and rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation; cotton is expected to run strongly; sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate; apples are expected to run strongly; pigs can be considered for observation; eggs are recommended for temporary observation; corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [6][10][12][15][17][20][23][25][28][30][32][34][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][50][51][53][55][58][62][66][67][71][73][77] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.63%, 0.10%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan on the day. From January to November, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year; expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] Stock Index - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 1.86%, 1.43%, 2.02%, and 1.54% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time [10][11] Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.85%, and the silver main contract rose 5.77%. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex [12] - **Outlook**: Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3,150 - 3,280 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3,250 - 3,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Outlook**: The price of rebar may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels [15] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of PB powder is 784 yuan/ton, and super - special powder is 675 yuan/ton. Since October, national hot - metal daily output has declined, and port inventory has increased [17] - **Outlook**: The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can short at high levels [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and downstream demand is weak. The second - round price cut of coke spot purchases has landed [19] - **Outlook**: Coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and stabilize, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can consider buying at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.16%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.06%. Manganese ore supply is tight, and the cost is rising. The production of ferroalloys is declining, and the demand is weak [22] - **Outlook**: Ferroalloys are in an overall oversupply situation. After losses in the spot market widen, low - level long positions can be considered [23] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and CFTC data show that funds are bearish on the future of crude oil [24][25] - **Outlook**: The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [25][26] Fuel Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has reached a 13 - week high due to increased imports and weak consumption [27] - **Outlook**: The fuel oil price is under pressure, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [28] Polyolefins - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE price fell. The market supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin fundamentals are weak, and investors can consider long positions [29][30] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 2.81%. The cost is supported, and the supply has slightly increased. The tire demand is slow [31] - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][32] Natural Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.42%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 1.53%. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, and the demand is slow. The inventory is increasing [32] - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate [32][33] PVC - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 1.17%. The supply exceeds demand, the device utilization rate has decreased, and the demand has declined [34] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the supply - side changes of PVC [34] Urea - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 1.29%. The daily output is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak [35] - **Outlook**: The downside space of urea is limited [35][36] PX - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 0.47%. The PX load has declined slightly, and the short - process profit has improved [37] - **Outlook**: PX may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [37] PTA - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.3%. The PTA load is 73.7%, the polyester load is 91.2%, and the processing fee has recovered [38] - **Outlook**: PTA may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.67%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened [39] - **Outlook**: Ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39] Short - Fiber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.43%. The device load has decreased, the demand has changed little, and the inventory is stable [40] - **Outlook**: Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40] Bottle Chips - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract rose 0.28%. The processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, the load has slightly decreased, and the export growth has slowed down [41] - **Outlook**: Bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 7.6%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The inventory is gradually decreasing [42] - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom [42] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.51%. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, the production has recovered, but the terminal procurement has weakened [43] - **Outlook**: Copper may have a technical correction risk [43][44] Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.75%, and the alumina main contract rose 0.9%. Alumina supply exceeds demand, and electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained. The inventory has decreased [45] - **Outlook**: Aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level [45][46] Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.59%. The refined zinc production has decreased, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased [46] - **Outlook**: Chase zinc with caution [46][47] Lead - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.33%. The supply has shrunk, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased [48] - **Outlook**: Lead may continue to fluctuate [48] Tin - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 2.84%. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [49][50] - **Outlook**: Tin may fluctuate strongly [50] Nickel - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.51%. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51] - **Outlook**: Nickel may fluctuate [51] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.45%, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.89%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the oil - mill crushing is at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large [52] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range [53] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the palm oil night session strengthened. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, the Indian inventory has decreased, and the Malaysian exports have declined [54] - **Outlook**: Palm oil is recommended for temporary observation [55] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed price fell. The US biofuel blending decision is postponed, the domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory is in the middle or high level of the past seven years [56][57] - **Outlook**: Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation [58] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly, and overseas cotton rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area will be reduced by more than 10%. The global cotton inventory has increased, and the textile and clothing exports are relatively stable [59][60][61] - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to run strongly [62] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas raw sugar fell. Brazilian sugar production has decreased, Indian sugar production has increased, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing [63][64][65] - **Outlook**: Sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate [66] Apples - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [67] - **Outlook**: Apples are expected to run strongly [68] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the national average pig price rose. The consumption is improving, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is fluctuating at a low level [69][70][71] - **Outlook**: Observe the follow - up consumption changes and consider waiting and seeing [71] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main - producing area egg price was flat, and the main - selling area egg price was flat. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, the cost is rising, and the profit is low [72] - **Outlook**: Eggs are recommended for temporary observation [73] Corn and Starch - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.14%, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.12%. The northern port inventory may accumulate, the demand is growing slightly, and the corn starch inventory is at a high level [74][75][76] - **Outlook**: Corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [77]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Ferroalloys are currently in a bottom - oscillating trend, with support from the cost side and suppression from high inventory and weakening downstream demand [2]. - The supply of ferroalloys is likely to continue to decrease due to seasonal patterns and declining profits, while the demand is expected to decline as hot metal production decreases [2]. - The high inventory of ferroalloys further restricts demand, and destocking may require production cuts [2]. - Despite the weak fundamentals, news about anti - involution competition and green - low - carbon transformation may cause a short - term rebound in ferroalloy prices, but price increases may stimulate hedging and suppress prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply**: Ferroalloy production generally shows a decreasing trend. Last week, silicon - manganese production increased slightly by 0.68% week - on - week, while silicon - iron production decreased by 2.30% week - on - week. Future production is likely to decrease further due to corporate losses [2]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to fall, and high inventory also inhibits demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese enterprise inventories are at the highest levels in the past five years. Last week, silicon - manganese enterprise inventory increased by 1.73% and silicon - iron enterprise inventory increased by 7.16% week - on - week [2]. - **Trading Logic**: Near - term trading is based on cost support and weakening demand; long - term trading is influenced by anti - involution expectations and green - low - carbon transformation policies [4][5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategies**: All strategies (basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage) recommend waiting and seeing [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon - iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.32% and a historical percentile of 32.5% in three years. The monthly price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 12.21% and a historical percentile of 14.5% in three years [5]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, sell 15% of ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) when the price of silicon - iron is 5800 - 6000 and silicon - manganese is 6000 - 6200. For procurement management, buy 25% of ferroalloy futures when the price of silicon - iron is 5200 - 5300 and silicon - manganese is 5300 - 5400 [5]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Ferroalloys are in a production - cut trend; magnesium ingot production in October increased by 21.96% month - on - month; downstream steel profits are gradually improving; anti - involution competition news and green - low - carbon transformation policies [6][7]. - **Negative Information**: Steel mill profit margins fell below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing; hot metal production is decreasing, reducing ferroalloy demand; ferroalloy enterprise inventories are increasing [7]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and November year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size. - Next Tuesday: The US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements**: Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, with the silicon - iron contract in a backwardation structure at certain stages. The basis has narrow fluctuations, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread may weaken further [10][11]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Downstream demand is weakening, and ferroalloy production enterprises are gradually incurring losses. The market expects ferroalloy production to continue to decrease [27]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume [57]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Supply: Ferroalloy production is expected to decline due to weakening downstream demand and falling production profits. - Demand: The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease as hot metal production declines. - Inventory: High inventory levels require production cuts for destocking [58]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Ferroalloy production is affected by production profits and seasonal patterns, and is expected to maintain a decreasing trend [62]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - The demand for ferroalloys is related to hot metal production, steel enterprise profitability, and the production of downstream products such as magnesium ingots and steel products [66][68]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Projections - The inventory of ferroalloys is at a high level, and the inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese is expected to change according to production and demand [82][89].

2025 年 12 月 12 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 当前宏观数据保持平稳，但宏观经济复苏动能仍待加强，预计货币政策将保持宽 松。当前的国债收益率处在相对低位；中国经济呈现平稳复苏态势，核心通胀持续回 升，内需政策有发力空间；市场风险偏好明显提升。因此，预计国债期货仍有一定压 力，保持谨慎。 小结：预计仍有一定压力，保持谨慎。 股指： 上一交易日，股指期货涨跌不一，沪深 300 ...

"十四五"时期，面对复杂严峻的国内外经济形势，期货市场扛起服务实体经济的责任担当，精准对接国 家战略，深度融入产业链，为实体经济稳健运行保驾护航。从广袤的田野到现代化工园区，从能源基地 到高科技生产线，期现结合的实践遍地开花，结出丰硕成果，践行了"护实体远行"的使命。 在新湖期货总经理金玉卫看来，"保险+期货"模式已成为金融机构服务乡村产业的重要切入点，成为金 融服务乡村全面振兴的有效途径之一。 尿素被誉为"粮食的粮食"，我国高度重视尿素市场供应及市场价格稳定。郑商所锚定化肥"常年生产、 季节使用"的行业痛点，于2021年创新推出"商储无忧"项目，支持承储企业利用尿素期货管理储备期间 的价格下跌风险。5年来，该项目累计为99家次企业的495万吨尿素提供风险管理支持，有效保障了23个 省份的春耕生产用肥需求。目前，已有近90%的尿素贸易龙头企业参与"商储无忧"项目。 "双碳"目标下，绿色转型需要政策引导，更需要"市场之手"助力。国内期货交易所在陆续推出绿色期货 品种的同时，将服务延伸至绿色低碳领域。 "十四五"期间，上期所推出再生金属衍生品——铸造铝合金期货和期权，加快推进液化天然气（LNG） 期货和期权研发上 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 铁合金日报 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5444 | -30 | -22 | 414480 | 10957 | 262736 | 4446 | | SM主力合约 | 5736 | -22 | -2 | 265067 | 102578 | 271282 | 7356 | | | | | 现货 | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5230 | -20 | -20 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5530 | 0 | 0 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5200 ...

南华期货铁合金周报 ——需求逐渐转弱，震荡偏弱 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【盘面回顾】上周铁合金受到部分地区电价上调的影响，小幅上涨后受到焦煤下跌的影响后回落。硅铁主力 合约环比+1.56%，硅铁总持仓量环比-6.75%；硅锰主力合约环比+2.53%，硅锰总持仓量环比-14.6%。 【核心逻辑】铁水产量受到钢厂盈利率的下跌和季节性规律，上周继续减产，预计未来延续小幅下滑的趋 势，五大材的库存仍需要通过减产来实现， 铁合金的需求量预计将会下滑，铁合金自身库存也位于高位进一 步抑制了铁合金的需求， 铁合金目前面临高库存与弱需求的矛盾，铁合金生产利润逐渐下滑，下游需求进入 淡季，铁合金预期大幅增产的可能性不大，铁合金库存高位，硅铁和硅锰企业库存均位于近5年最高水平，铁 合金企业上周库存继续累库，环比+2%；硅铁企业库存 受到硅铁产量环比上升的影响，库存环比+1.12%，库 存压力仍存。下游需求逐渐走弱，去库依赖路径可能还是需要减产去实现。成本端焦煤周五跌幅相对较大， 也会影响铁合金的反弹。 【南华观点】铁合金面临自身高库存和弱需求的基本面，成本端焦煤价格受保供影响下， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily wait and observe, and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The overall surplus pressure is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider low - level opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19]. - **Crude Oil**: Focus on short - term long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22]. - **Fuel Oil**: Temporarily wait and observe for the main contract [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to have a wide - range consolidation with limited downward space, and pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [36]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [39]. - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, and control risks [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45]. - **Copper**: Expected to have a high - level oscillation [48]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to have a phased correction [50]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: Expected to have a wide - range oscillation [54]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to rise [55]. - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on corrections [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be weak [67][68]. - **Sugar**: The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [72][73]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong [75]. - **Hogs**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds and follow consumption changes [78]. - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions and then temporarily wait and observe [82]. - **Corn and Starch**: For corn, it is advisable to wait and observe; corn starch may follow the corn market [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.31% to 115.570 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.04% to 108.430 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06% to 105.855 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.460 yuan [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 21, with a net investment of 162.2 billion yuan. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the management measures for central budget - inner investment in rural revitalization [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 930.32, up 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 938.68; the silver main contract closed at 11,808, up 1.10%, and the night - session closed at 11,975 [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected Fed rate cuts are also beneficial to precious metals [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,090 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Situation**: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious [12]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 795 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 675 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry Situation**: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak [16]. - **Industry Situation**: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and the supply has increased. For coke, the fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price has been implemented, but the demand from steel mills may weaken [16]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.50% to 5,630 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.04% to 5,456 yuan/ton [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the output has decreased. The overall surplus pressure has weakened [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US has increased for three consecutive weeks. The "28 - point" new plan has brought new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [20][21]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting a low and closed below the moving average group [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The narrowing of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the new plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for fuel oil prices [24]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market oscillated downward, and the Yuyao LLDPE market had partial price drops [26]. - **Industry Situation**: The average start - up rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased. The demand for modified PP and PP non - woven fabrics is strong, while the demand for traditional PP products is weak [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.81%. The price in Shandong was adjusted down to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Industry Situation**: The international oil price is low, the supply of butadiene is loose, and the supply of synthetic rubber is also loose. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [29]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.10%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 0.53%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. The inventory has increased slightly [31]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.47%, and the spot price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis was stable [33]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of PVC exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has increased this week, and the demand is mixed. The cost and profit have changed [33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.15%. The price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted down by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened [37]. - **Industry Situation**: The total production of urea has increased, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the demand from downstream products has changed differently. The inventory of urea enterprises is lower than expected [37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit was stable [39]. - **Industry Situation**: The PX load has increased, and the import volume has decreased. The short - term PXN spread is strong, and the supply has decreased slightly. The cost side is oscillating, and there is a lack of driving force [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.04% [40]. - **Industry Situation**: The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load is stable, and the processing fee has declined. The cost side is weak, and the raw material PX price support is limited [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 1.68% [41]. - **Industry Situation**: The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port inventory is stable, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is weak [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.91% [42]. - **Industry Situation**: The short - fiber supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.28% [44]. - **Industry Situation**: The raw material price support is limited, the bottle chips load is stable, the export growth rate has slowed down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The main logic lies in the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton [45]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [46]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the smelting profit is poor, and the demand from the real economy is weak. The global liquidity is loose, which provides support for copper prices [47]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [49]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is seasonally weak, and the aluminum price may be under pressure in the short term [49]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [51]. - **Industry Situation**: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined rapidly, and some smelting enterprises are in losses. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [51]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [53]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of secondary lead is growing slowly, and the demand from the battery sector is mixed. The inventory has increased [53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.05% to 294,380 yuan/ton [55]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is tight, the production of smelters is affected, and the demand has certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.69% to 116,100 yuan/ton [56]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron plants is affected, and the demand from the stainless steel sector is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and the market is in surplus [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.20% to 3,011 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.46% to 8,168 yuan/ton [57]. - **Industry Situation**: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, and the US soybean harvest is basically completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [57][58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen for three consecutive days. The export volume from November 1 - 20 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [59]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of palm oil may be affected by the exchange rate and demand. The production may decline seasonally, and the inventory may decrease [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose slightly. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by the crude oil price. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed [61][62]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level in the past 7 years, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level [62]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated higher, and the overnight external cotton rebounded slightly [64]. - **Industry Situation**: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the downstream demand is weak [64][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overnight external raw sugar

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and the trend of treasury bond futures is not clear [7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase of the market is large with high volatility. For stock index futures, those who hold long positions can gradually take profits [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of precious metals. However, the recent increase is large, so investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term weakness is difficult to change. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [16]. - Ferroalloys are in a state of short - term oversupply, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [18]. - For crude oil, due to US sanctions on Russia and other factors, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract [20]. - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, and the supply in Singapore is suddenly tight. There are long - position opportunities in the main contract [22]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [25]. - Natural rubber may follow the macro - led market. There are long - position opportunities [27]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on supply - side changes [30]. - The downward space of urea is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [33]. - Short - term PX may fluctuate and adjust with support at the bottom. The market should pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [36]. - Short - term PTA may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - Short - term ethylene glycol may fluctuate with limited downward space. The market should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - term short - fiber may fluctuate following the cost. The market should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost. The market should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, in the pattern of strong supply and demand, the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The market should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract of Shanghai copper due to the non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks [44]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [47]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [49]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see [52]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [58]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [61]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [64]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions [69]. - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 2125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 23, with a net withdrawal of 235 billion yuan on the same day. The treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase is large with high volatility [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends and central bank gold - buying support the price of precious metals, but the recent increase is large [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand supports the price in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium term [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply of ferroalloys is in a short - term oversupply state, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to US sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude oil production is difficult, and the geopolitical situation is beneficial to the price of crude oil [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly following crude oil. The supply in Singapore is suddenly tight, which is beneficial to the price [22]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - side drives the market to stop falling and rebound, but the raw material side is bearish. It is expected to fluctuate [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, it may follow the macro - led market [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on export and supply reduction after the festival [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply has recovered, and the demand has stabilized at a low level [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost - side crude oil rebounds. It may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The short - term processing fee has dropped significantly, and the cost - side crude oil has recovered. It may fluctuate [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increases, the inventory may decrease slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It may fluctuate [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - term supply is at a relatively high level, the demand improves, and it may fluctuate following the cost [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The load has slightly increased, the export growth has slowed down, and it may fluctuate following the cost [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks support the price [44]. Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract rose. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The supply is in an oversupply state, and it is expected to fluctuate [49]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract fell. The market expects the export to improve. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost provides certain support [52]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed closed higher. The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high - level. It is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and rose. The new - season domestic cotton has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the price is expected to be under pressure [58]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar bottomed out and rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply in October is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas rose. The supply in October is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected. It is recommended to continue to hold short positions [69]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum remains weak, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals have seen a large increase recently, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. - The price of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. - There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [26]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - position opportunities [29]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [32]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [34]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44]. - Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [46]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - Palm oil investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. - Cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [58]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [61]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [63]. - For live pigs, consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [66]. - For eggs, consider holding short positions [68]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [72]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 94.7 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent increase in precious metals is large, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The price of rebar is expected to remain weak in the medium term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The supply - demand pattern supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - The previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures rebounded slightly. They are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. Investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to changes in the raw material market and supply [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be oversupplied, and investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [33]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PX changes little, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee of PTA has declined significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investors should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and it is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The export growth rate of bottle chips has slowed down, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost side [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper bottomed out and rebounded. Sino - US tensions have eased, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [45]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin declined. The supply of tin is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose slightly. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned that palm oil fell for three consecutive days. Palm Oil - Palm oil fell for three consecutive days. There are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Similar to palm oil, there are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [55]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton rose, and overseas cotton fell. Sino - US relations may improve, but cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [57]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom, and overseas sugar declined. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and investors should wait and see [59]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The quality of late - maturing apples this year is poor, and investors should wait and see [62]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live pig futures contract rose. The supply in October is expected to increase. Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [64]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices were flat. The egg supply in October is expected to increase year - on - year, and consumption may fall short of expectations. Consider holding short positions [67]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn futures contract fell, and the corn starch futures contract rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [69].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [6][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, so a certain degree of caution is required [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. It is expected that the market volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, precious metal futures declined. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. But the recent increase in precious metals has been large, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the steel price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure has increased significantly. It is expected that the rebar price will remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern still supports the price, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, it may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply pressure of coking coal is not large, and the demand for coke remains high. Technically, they may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, ferroalloy futures rose slightly. The current supply of ferroalloys is still in excess in the short - term, but the cost has increased at a low level. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to concerns about supply surplus. Although the Baker Hughes rig count has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still challenging. Geopolitical risks have eased, which is negative for crude oil prices, but there is some support near the integer level. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated and remained near recent lows. The Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. The main fuel oil contract strategy is to widen the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. In the short - term, the butadiene rubber market will maintain a weak and wide - range oscillation. The market may stop falling and rebound due to supply factors. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures declined. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The rubber price may follow the macro - led market. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [29][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The current oversupply situation of PVC continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the festival, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The main strategy is to pay attention to supply - side changes [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed flat. Last week, the decline of urea stopped and the price rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly this week. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown some improvement. The downward space is limited [35][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance of PX has become looser. The PXN spread is relatively strong, but the cost is weak and the demand support is insufficient. PX may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. Investors should control their positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has dropped significantly, and the inventory is at a low level with some support at the bottom. However, the demand improvement is limited, and the external crude oil price is weakly adjusted. PTA may oscillate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Recently, the supply has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost of crude oil is weak. Ethylene glycol may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the demand is average, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost support is weak. It may oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Recently, the raw material price has been weakly adjusted in an oscillatory manner, the bottle - chip load has slightly increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [45]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward due to the easing of Sino - US tensions. The dollar index is at a phased low, and copper prices are strongly adjusted at a high level. The reopening of the Indonesian copper mine has been delayed, and the Sino - US negotiation has improved again, which supports copper prices. The main Shanghai copper contract can be temporarily observed [46][48]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin is generally tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is further depleted. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [49]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures rose. The market is worried about the supply due to the change in the RKAB approval in Indonesia. The mine price has weakened, and the high - grade nickel ore is still in short supply. The stainless - steel consumption is still weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill crushing continues to be in loss. The Brazilian soybean arrival price has slightly declined, providing some cost support. New - season US soybeans are being harvested, which may bring some short - term pressure. After the adjustment of soybean meal, investors can consider long - call options in the support range. Soybean oil is slightly stronger than soybean meal, but the supply - demand is weak, so it is advisable to temporarily observe [54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in September was higher than expected. The export volume from October 1 - 20 increased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures closed down. The domestic rapeseed inventory has decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. The main strategy for rapeseed oil is to consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [58][59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward due to the improvement of Sino - US relations. The new - season domestic cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the cotton price is under pressure from hedging and harvesting. It is expected that the cotton price will remain under pressure [60][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level. The Brazilian sugar production slightly exceeded expectations. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the sugar price rebound. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. It is advisable to observe [64][66]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is advisable to observe [67][68]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of October. After short - term profit - taking of short positions, investors can temporarily observe and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The arbitrage strategy can consider reverse arbitrage [69][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg supply is expected to increase year - on - year in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions can be held [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the corn price may be under pressure. The corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market. It is advisable to observe [74][76].