1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and the trend of treasury bond futures is not clear [7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase of the market is large with high volatility. For stock index futures, those who hold long positions can gradually take profits [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of precious metals. However, the recent increase is large, so investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term weakness is difficult to change. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pull - backs [16]. - Ferroalloys are in a state of short - term oversupply, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [18]. - For crude oil, due to US sanctions on Russia and other factors, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract [20]. - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, and the supply in Singapore is suddenly tight. There are long - position opportunities in the main contract [22]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [25]. - Natural rubber may follow the macro - led market. There are long - position opportunities [27]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on supply - side changes [30]. - The downward space of urea is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [33]. - Short - term PX may fluctuate and adjust with support at the bottom. The market should pay attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [36]. - Short - term PTA may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - Short - term ethylene glycol may fluctuate with limited downward space. The market should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - term short - fiber may fluctuate following the cost. The market should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost. The market should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, in the pattern of strong supply and demand, the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The market should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, there are long - position opportunities in the main contract of Shanghai copper due to the non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks [44]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [47]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [49]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see [52]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [58]. - For sugar, it is recommended to wait and see [61]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [64]. - For live pigs, after short - term profit - taking on short positions, investors can wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions [69]. - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 2125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 23, with a net withdrawal of 235 billion yuan on the same day. The treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the increase is large with high volatility [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends and central bank gold - buying support the price of precious metals, but the recent increase is large [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand supports the price in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium term [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is at a high level. The short - term trend is strong [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply of ferroalloys is in a short - term oversupply state, but the cost is at a low level with limited downward space [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to US sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude oil production is difficult, and the geopolitical situation is beneficial to the price of crude oil [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly following crude oil. The supply in Singapore is suddenly tight, which is beneficial to the price [22]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - side drives the market to stop falling and rebound, but the raw material side is bearish. It is expected to fluctuate [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, it may follow the macro - led market [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The market should focus on export and supply reduction after the festival [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply has recovered, and the demand has stabilized at a low level [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost - side crude oil rebounds. It may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The short - term processing fee has dropped significantly, and the cost - side crude oil has recovered. It may fluctuate [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply increases, the inventory may decrease slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It may fluctuate [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - term supply is at a relatively high level, the demand improves, and it may fluctuate following the cost [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The load has slightly increased, the export growth has slowed down, and it may fluctuate following the cost [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and the upcoming Sino - US talks support the price [44]. Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract rose. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The supply is in an oversupply state, and it is expected to fluctuate [49]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract fell. The market expects the export to improve. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost provides certain support [52]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed closed higher. The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high - level. It is recommended to wait and see for rapeseed oil [56]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and rose. The new - season domestic cotton has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the price is expected to be under pressure [58]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar bottomed out and rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply in October is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas rose. The supply in October is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected. It is recommended to continue to hold short positions [69]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum remains weak, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals have seen a large increase recently, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. - The price of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. - Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. - There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20]. - For fuel oil, investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [26]. - Natural rubber investors can focus on long - position opportunities [29]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [32]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [34]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following costs in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44]. - Investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [46]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - Palm oil investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. - Cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [58]. - For sugar, investors should wait and see [61]. - For apples, investors should wait and see [63]. - For live pigs, consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [66]. - For eggs, consider holding short positions [68]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [72]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 94.7 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The market is expected to have increased volatility, and existing long positions can be profit - taken [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent increase in precious metals is large, and existing long positions can be closed for profit and then wait and see [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The price of rebar is expected to remain weak in the medium term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The supply - demand pattern supports prices in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - The previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures rebounded slightly. They are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. Ferroalloys are expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in the short term. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities when the spot market falls into the loss range again [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. There are both positive and negative factors for crude oil, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. Investors can widen the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to changes in the raw material market and supply [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be oversupplied, and investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [30]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range this week [33]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PX changes little, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee of PTA has declined significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investors should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and it is expected to oscillate following costs. Investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The export growth rate of bottle chips has slowed down, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost side [42]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper bottomed out and rebounded. Sino - US tensions have eased, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [45]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin declined. The supply of tin is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. Tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [47]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose slightly. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [50]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned that palm oil fell for three consecutive days. Palm Oil - Palm oil fell for three consecutive days. There are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Similar to palm oil, there are many influencing factors, and investors should wait and see for the time being [55]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton rose, and overseas cotton fell. Sino - US relations may improve, but cotton prices are expected to face pressure above [57]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom, and overseas sugar declined. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and investors should wait and see [59]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated at a high level. The quality of late - maturing apples this year is poor, and investors should wait and see [62]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live pig futures contract rose. The supply in October is expected to increase. Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and then wait and see, and consider reverse - arbitrage strategies for arbitrage [64]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices were flat. The egg supply in October is expected to increase year - on - year, and consumption may fall short of expectations. Consider holding short positions [67]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn futures contract fell, and the corn starch futures contract rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [69].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [6][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, so a certain degree of caution is required [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. It is expected that the market volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, precious metal futures declined. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. But the recent increase in precious metals has been large, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the steel price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure has increased significantly. It is expected that the rebar price will remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern still supports the price, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, it may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply pressure of coking coal is not large, and the demand for coke remains high. Technically, they may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, ferroalloy futures rose slightly. The current supply of ferroalloys is still in excess in the short - term, but the cost has increased at a low level. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to concerns about supply surplus. Although the Baker Hughes rig count has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still challenging. Geopolitical risks have eased, which is negative for crude oil prices, but there is some support near the integer level. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated and remained near recent lows. The Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. The main fuel oil contract strategy is to widen the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. In the short - term, the butadiene rubber market will maintain a weak and wide - range oscillation. The market may stop falling and rebound due to supply factors. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures declined. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The rubber price may follow the macro - led market. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [29][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The current oversupply situation of PVC continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the festival, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The main strategy is to pay attention to supply - side changes [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed flat. Last week, the decline of urea stopped and the price rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly this week. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown some improvement. The downward space is limited [35][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance of PX has become looser. The PXN spread is relatively strong, but the cost is weak and the demand support is insufficient. PX may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. Investors should control their positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has dropped significantly, and the inventory is at a low level with some support at the bottom. However, the demand improvement is limited, and the external crude oil price is weakly adjusted. PTA may oscillate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Recently, the supply has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost of crude oil is weak. Ethylene glycol may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the demand is average, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost support is weak. It may oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Recently, the raw material price has been weakly adjusted in an oscillatory manner, the bottle - chip load has slightly increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [45]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward due to the easing of Sino - US tensions. The dollar index is at a phased low, and copper prices are strongly adjusted at a high level. The reopening of the Indonesian copper mine has been delayed, and the Sino - US negotiation has improved again, which supports copper prices. The main Shanghai copper contract can be temporarily observed [46][48]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin is generally tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is further depleted. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [49]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures rose. The market is worried about the supply due to the change in the RKAB approval in Indonesia. The mine price has weakened, and the high - grade nickel ore is still in short supply. The stainless - steel consumption is still weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill crushing continues to be in loss. The Brazilian soybean arrival price has slightly declined, providing some cost support. New - season US soybeans are being harvested, which may bring some short - term pressure. After the adjustment of soybean meal, investors can consider long - call options in the support range. Soybean oil is slightly stronger than soybean meal, but the supply - demand is weak, so it is advisable to temporarily observe [54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in September was higher than expected. The export volume from October 1 - 20 increased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures closed down. The domestic rapeseed inventory has decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. The main strategy for rapeseed oil is to consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [58][59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward due to the improvement of Sino - US relations. The new - season domestic cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the cotton price is under pressure from hedging and harvesting. It is expected that the cotton price will remain under pressure [60][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level. The Brazilian sugar production slightly exceeded expectations. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the sugar price rebound. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. It is advisable to observe [64][66]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is advisable to observe [67][68]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of October. After short - term profit - taking of short positions, investors can temporarily observe and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The arbitrage strategy can consider reverse arbitrage [69][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg supply is expected to increase year - on - year in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions can be held [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the corn price may be under pressure. The corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market. It is advisable to observe [74][76].

Core Insights - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference is being held from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, focusing on green development in various industries [1] Group 1: Green Development Initiatives - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is promoting green development in the ferroalloy industry through a special pilot program aimed at enhancing green finance [3] - ZCE has developed and implemented a green product certification standard for ferroalloys in collaboration with the China Ferroalloy Industry Association, which is expected to reduce average energy consumption per ton of product by approximately 15% if all companies achieve certification [3] - The initiative is projected to save around 25 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually and save companies about 10 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Industry Context - The ferroalloy industry is a significant sector within China's steel industry, characterized by high energy consumption, with production of silicon iron and manganese silicon consuming approximately 8,000 and 4,000 kilowatt-hours per ton, respectively [3] - The Chinese government is actively promoting energy-saving and carbon reduction efforts in the ferroalloy sector as part of its dual carbon strategy [3] Group 3: Pilot Projects and Impact - Since the launch of the "Green Assistance for Enterprises" initiative, 8 companies with 13 pilot projects have received approval, representing leading firms in the industry [4] - The ZCE's efforts are seen as a means to leverage futures markets to facilitate deep transformations in traditional industries towards low-carbon development [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The current macro - data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased [6]. - **Overall Market**: Different sectors show diverse trends. Some sectors are expected to have no clear trend, some may experience increased volatility, and others may face supply - demand imbalances affecting their prices. 3. Summary by Commodity Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts fell by 0.14% and 0.06% respectively [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market for Treasury bond futures, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures fell [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be gradually closed to take profits [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: Gold and silver futures rose on the previous trading day, with gold up 0.63% and silver up 0.43% [12]. - **Outlook**: The rise has been significant, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit - taking [13][14]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly on the previous trading day [15]. - **Outlook**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. The trend of hot - rolled coils may be similar. Investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds, with attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: Iron ore futures slightly corrected on the previous trading day [18]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly on the previous trading day [20]. - **Outlook**: They may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [21][22]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: Manganese silicon futures fell 0.21%, and silicon iron futures rose 1.60% on the previous trading day [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply may remain in excess. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss zone [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: INE crude oil slightly rebounded on the previous trading day [25]. - **Outlook**: The CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on the future of crude oil. The main contract should be temporarily observed [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: Fuel oil fluctuated upward on the previous trading day, moving away from recent lows [28]. - **Outlook**: Singapore's fuel oil sales decreased in September, but the war in Ukraine supports prices. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [29][30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: Synthetic rubber futures rose 3.05% on the previous trading day [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate in a fluctuating manner [32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: Natural rubber futures rose on the previous trading day, with the main contract up 0.27% and 20 - grade rubber up 1.90% [33]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [34][35]. PVC - **Performance**: PVC futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [36]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [36][39]. Urea - **Performance**: Urea futures closed flat on the previous trading day [40]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to exports and cost changes [40][42]. PX - **Performance**: PX futures rose 1.27% on the previous trading day [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance may loosen, and it may adjust weakly in a fluctuating manner. Attention should be paid to the PXN spread and macro - policies [43]. PTA - **Performance**: PTA futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [44]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to oil prices [45]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: Ethylene glycol futures rose 1.01% on the previous trading day [46]. - **Outlook**: It may operate weakly in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [46]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: Short - fiber futures rose 0.86% on the previous trading day [47]. - **Outlook**: It may operate following cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to costs and macro - policies [48][49]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: Bottle - chip futures rose 0.9% on the previous trading day [50]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate following cost fluctuations. Risk control is necessary [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: Lithium carbonate futures rose 2.52% on the previous trading day [51]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it may return to a supply - demand surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [51]. Copper - **Performance**: Shanghai copper futures fluctuated downward on the previous trading day [53]. - **Outlook**: The price is still affected by the复产 of Indonesian copper mines. The main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - **Performance**: Tin futures rose 0.53% on the previous trading day [56]. - **Outlook**: It may operate strongly in a fluctuating manner due to tight supply and certain demand support [56]. Nickel - **Performance**: Nickel futures fell 0.11% on the previous trading day [58]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner. The market is in an oversupply situation, with high - grade nickel ore still in short supply [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: Soybean meal futures fell 0.24%, and soybean oil futures rose 0.15% on the previous trading day [61]. - **Outlook**: After adjustment, investors can consider call options on soybean meal. Soybean oil should be temporarily observed due to supply pressure [62][63]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on the previous trading day [64]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell. In the domestic market, rapeseed meal and oil prices showed certain changes [65]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered for rapeseed oil [67]. Cotton - **Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated, and overseas cotton futures rebounded after hitting a low on the previous trading day [68]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure due to factors such as trade frictions and harvest pressure [70][71]. Sugar - **Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level, and overseas sugar futures rebounded slightly on the previous trading day [72]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The global sugar supply may be in surplus, and the domestic market has new sugar supply [74][75]. Apples - **Performance**: Domestic apple futures slightly fell on the previous trading day [76]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [76][77]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs rose, and the main futures contract fell 3.21% on the previous trading day [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [79]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose, and the main futures contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day [80][81]. - **Outlook**: The supply may increase in October, and consumption may be lower than expected. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [81]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Performance**: Corn futures rose 0.67%, and corn starch futures fell 0.59% on the previous trading day [82]. - **Outlook**: Corn prices may continue to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market. Observation is recommended [83][84][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ferroalloy price in the third quarter was mainly affected by the coking coal price showing a volatile trend after a rapid increase. In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy futures are expected to be volatile, with the price at the stage when the "anti - involution" was proposed at the beginning of July regarded as the policy bottom and the high price at the end of July as the resistance level. The downstream products like rebar are the core variables affecting the ferroalloy price, and coking coal affects its cost. Ferroalloy mainly follows their prices but with lower elasticity. Policy expectations will dominate the rhythm, the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations. If the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, the supply - demand pressure will rise and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations [1][4]. - The price range of the Si - Fe 2601 contract is predicted to be between 5300 - 6400, and that of the Si - Mn 2601 contract between 5500 - 6500. The supply - demand of ferroalloy is relatively loose but easily affected by the anti - involution policy. Buying when the price reaches the level at the beginning of July has a high cost - performance ratio and safety margin, i.e., around 5300 for the Si - Fe 2601 contract and around 5500 for the Si - Mn 2601 contract [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the ferroalloy price was mainly affected by the coking coal price. In July, driven by macro - sentiment and the "anti - involution" policy expectation, coking coal rose rapidly, leading the rise of the entire black sector, and ferroalloy followed the price increase of coking coal and rebar. In August, due to the exchange's policy of restricting positions and raising handling fees for coking coal futures and the increase in production stimulated by the profit recovery of ferroalloy in July while the downstream demand was less than expected, the increase of ferroalloy gradually declined with a larger decline than the finished products. In September, supported by the steel mills' restocking of coke, ferroalloy rebounded slightly due to cost support (the increase in the prices of semi - coke and manganese ore), but the downstream consumption remained weak, and ferroalloy showed a narrow - range volatile trend [2]. - In 2025, the price of Si - Fe futures had a strong negative correlation with its total position. In most cases, the increase in price was accompanied by a decrease in position, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of hedging funds. The price of Si - Mn futures had a strong positive correlation and a characteristic of periodic divergence with its total position, i.e., in most cases, the increase in position was accompanied by a price rebound, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of speculative funds [2]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 Anti - Involution Policy Expectation - In the third quarter, the main factors affecting the ferroalloy price were the anti - involution policy expectation and market sentiment. The anti - involution started in July, but it mainly affected the photovoltaic sector at first. After July 18, relevant policies gradually began to affect the black sector, especially coking coal, which had multiple daily limit up. Ferroalloy also rose rapidly under the drive of coking coal but with a smaller increase. On July 25, after the news that large manganese - based ferroalloy producers reached a consensus on a 30% reduction in ferromanganese and a 40% reduction in Si - Mn production was spread, ferroalloy hit the daily limit and reached the peak of this round of market [15]. - In the fourth quarter, the price fluctuation of ferroalloy futures will be dominated by policy expectations in terms of rhythm, and the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space. Policies mainly affect the market by changing industry expectations, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations [15]. 3.2.2 Downstream Steel Mill Demand Rhythm Realization - In the first three quarters of this year, the hot metal production has been maintained at a high level, with only a short - term decline in late September due to the military parade and then returning to normal. The high - level hot metal production is mainly due to the strong export demand in the first half of the year. From January to August 2025, the net export of steel products was 73.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.29%, and the net export of billets was 8.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 975%. Another reason is the high profit of steel mills, which is supported by strong exports and the price reduction of coking coal and iron ore in the first half of the year. However, since the third quarter, the cost has rebounded, and the profit of steel mills has gradually declined, which poses a challenge to maintaining high - level hot metal production [16]. - In the fourth quarter, the "Golden September and Silver October" is the peak demand season in China, but the demand for the five major steel products has been weak, with the apparent consumption remaining at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years and the production also at a low level. Since August, the production of the five major steel products has been significantly higher than that of last year, but the apparent consumption has not increased synchronously and is still lower than that of last year, resulting in inventory accumulation instead of the seasonal inventory reduction in the peak season [16]. - In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to pay attention to the realization of the downstream steel mill demand rhythm. If the construction rush in the fourth quarter fails to meet expectations, the inventory accumulation of steel mills will suppress the price rebound space, and the off - season may come earlier. If the winter storage is postponed, the situation of "no peak season in the peak season and no off - season in the off - season" may occur, leading to a price rhythm contrary to expectations [17]. 3.2.3 Effectiveness of Cost Support - Since July, the raw material prices of the ferroalloy cost side have changed. The electricity price has been relatively stable, but the price of semi - coke has risen, increasing the production cost of Si - Fe by about 300 yuan/ton from the bottom and providing some support for the Si - Fe price. For Si - Mn, supported by the high operating rate of downstream factories, the manganese ore price has risen slightly, and the chemical coke price has also increased under the drive of coking coal, moving the cost center of Si - Mn upward and providing some support for the Si - Mn price [24]. - In the long run, the production area of Si - Mn is concentrating in the northern regions with low electricity prices, new production capacity is constantly being released, and affected by factors such as the decline of the real estate market, the effectiveness of the cost support for Si - Mn may gradually weaken. The cost support of Si - Mn is affected not only by its own over - capacity but also by manganese ore, and its price elasticity basically depends on event - driven factors. In the short term, the supply pattern of manganese ore is relatively loose, the manganese ore price maintains a low - level volatile trend, and the market pricing may be anchored to the Inner Mongolia production area with the lowest cost [25]. - In the short term, before the National Day, the cost support of ferroalloy is relatively strong due to the release of raw material restocking demand. But in the medium - to - long term, if the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations, the supply - demand pressure will rise, and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged [25]. 3.2.4 Short - Term Disturbance at the Manganese Ore Shipping End - From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of manganese ore was 20.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.59%, and the cumulative shipping volume was 25.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.91%. The main reason is that the Australian manganese ore has gradually resumed production this year after the shutdown last year, and the supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient with the price maintaining a low - level volatile trend. The spread between semi - coke and manganese ore has gradually widened, and the cost - performance ratio of going long on the spread between the two types of ferroalloys is relatively high [29]. - Although the supply of manganese ore is sufficient, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term disturbances. There are rumors that the shipping volume of Gabonese manganese ore will decrease in October, but it has not been confirmed. Currently, the inventory of manganese ore at ports is low, and the market is likely to hype if there are disturbances at the shipping end [29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 Ferroalloy Valuation - Currently, the valuation of ferroalloy is relatively neutral and on the low side. In the short term, it is supported by the downstream restocking demand, but in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the inventory pressure after the demand declines. The profit of ferroalloy has been continuously declining. The production of Si - Fe remains at a high level, and there is not much motivation for Si - Fe enterprises to increase production. The production of Si - Mn enterprises has begun to decline as the southern production areas enter the dry season. If the downstream demand fails to meet expectations and the inventory pressure increases, it will put pressure on the ferroalloy price, and the enterprise inventory and warehouse receipt inventory are not low at present [45]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloy Supply - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of Si - Mn was 6.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the cumulative production of Si - Fe was 3.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in production due to the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but the continuous decline of the alloy production profit does not support the further increase of ferroalloy production. Instead, the possibility of producers reducing production is increasing. With the arrival of the normal water season, the production in the southern Si - Mn production areas may also decline. Especially, the production profit of Si - Fe has declined significantly, and there is a greater motivation to reduce production, with the production expected to decline slightly. The production profit of Si - Mn is relatively stable, and the production is expected to remain stable or decline following the Si - Fe production but with a smaller decline. It is expected that the ferroalloy production in the fourth quarter will decline slightly compared with the third quarter [50]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloy Demand - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, the cumulative production of the five major steel products was 295.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, and the cumulative production of rebar was 73.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in demand due to the peak season, but currently, the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils are declining, mainly because the inventory of the five major steel products is accumulating, while in previous years, the inventory should have decreased in the peak season. The inventory - to - sales ratio of the five major steel products has also increased seasonally, and the current warehouse receipt inventory of rebar is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the increase in demand for upstream ferroalloy [55]. - The hot metal production remains at a high - level volatile state, but the profitability of steel enterprises shows a downward trend, and it is difficult to maintain a high - level hot metal production for a long time, so the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. In terms of non - steel - making demand, the decline of the Si - Fe export profit is expected to affect the Si - Fe export volume. In general, it is difficult for the ferroalloy demand to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is expected to remain weak [55]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloy Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of Si - Fe and Si - Mn from January 2024 to December 2025 are provided, including production, import, export, apparent consumption, inventory, and supply - demand difference, showing the changes in the supply - demand situation of ferroalloy over time [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short - term, with potential for further increase if downstream demand exceeds expectations in October. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuation. [4] - The coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the strategy is to buy on dips later. The supply of coking coal has policy support, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11][12] - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September. [13][14] - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by high supply pressure. Ferrosilicon may rebound slightly due to market sentiment, while silicomanganese will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. [15][16] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; from January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 671.806 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The spot prices of steel in different regions decreased by 10 yuan. [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile and slightly stronger at night. This week, the hot - metal output increased slightly, and the national building - material output decreased. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. Downstream demand improved with the temperature drop. Market news and low valuation led to the price increase. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve, and there is support for the black - metal sector. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel maintains a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 17th, the coking - coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose. This week, the national raw - coal daily output increased, with Shanxi's output rising. There were news of coal - mine production cuts and capacity checks. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts were provided. [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The coking - coal spot market sentiment was good recently. The supply of coking coal is restricted by policies, but imported coal provides some supplement. The upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, and buy on dips later. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released. The real - estate market showed signs of stabilization. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the main contract were provided. [13] - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore oscillated narrowly at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased, mainly from Brazilian mines. Terminal steel demand weakened in China but remained high overseas. The iron - ore price may face pressure at high levels. [13][14] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: The spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port on the 17th were provided. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut 50 basis points more in 2025. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weaker on the 17th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market sentiment was boosted by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The spot price of silicomanganese was slightly weaker, with increased production and high iron - water output, but the demand was dragged down by the decline in electric - furnace operating rates. The cost of manganese ore supported the price. [15][16] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Follow the market and be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the target should not be too high due to high supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations at high prices. [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows marginal improvement, but the pressure of high supply and low downstream profits restricts the upside space. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5] - The strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Fundamentals**: Supply shows differentiation, with silicon - iron production slightly decreasing and silicon - manganese production slightly increasing this week. The previous continuous resumption trend has shifted to high - level stable operation. Demand for raw materials remains high as the pig - iron output of 247 steel mills rebounds significantly after the parade. However, the recovery of steel demand in the second week of September is not obvious, and the risk of production cuts affecting raw - material demand still exists due to low steel profits. The cost side supports silicon - manganese, with a slight increase in electricity prices in major production areas and stable manganese - ore port inventories, which are significantly lower than the same period in previous years [5] - **Market sentiment**: Rumors of energy - consumption control in some industrial - silicon production areas have disturbed the ferro - alloy supply side, but the high - supply problem still exists, so one should not be overly optimistic about the rebound height [5] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading is expected to oscillate at the bottom; arbitrage requires waiting and seeing; options suggest selling straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Demand**: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1171 million tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 19,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 122,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [11] - **Supply**: The sample opening rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the national silicon - iron output (weekly supply) is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The sample opening rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the national silicon - manganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 214,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 12, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [13] 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Spot price - basis**: There are price and basis trend charts for Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi from 2021 - 2025 [18] - **Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises**: There are charts showing the weekly output and opening rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24] - **Steel - mill production situation**: There are charts showing the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29] - **Silicon - manganese cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [31] - **Silicon - iron cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [41] - **Cost of carbon elements and electricity price**: There are price trend charts for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51] - **Bidding prices of double - silicon steel by Hebei representative steel mills**: There are price trend charts for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53] - **Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron supply**: There are charts showing the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron from 2021 - 2025 [60][63] - **Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron**: There are charts showing the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron, including the cumulative and year - on - year data [67] - **Demand for magnesium metal**: There are charts showing the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2020 - 2025 [69] - **Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants vs. steel mills**: There are charts showing the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and its regional distribution from 2021 - 2025 [73] - **Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports**: There are charts showing the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, its regional distribution, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [76]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report The report concludes that the rebound of industrial products in June 2025 can be attributed to three main factors: the seasonal bullish trend of coal (a major contradiction in this year's commodity market) from June to September, the significantly low valuation of commodities in June offering good cost - effectiveness for capital entry, and the improving sentiment in the capital and commodity markets. The accidental events in July provided strong impetus for the upward rebound. The overall rebound could be anticipated to some extent, but the magnitude of the rebound was a combination of market volatility and accidental events, which was unpredictable [1][31][32]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Review - The price of commodities showed a clear divide around June 3, 2025. Before June 3, prices continued the downward trend since 2024, while after that date, the sentiment improved and prices started to rise, officially breaking away from the downward trend on the week of July 21 [4]. - Most industrial products, excluding some strong - macro and oil - related products, had their price inflection points in June [4]. Role of Coal in the Market - Coal, especially coking coal, has been a major contradiction and a main line in the commodity market since October 2024. It is either the direct upstream raw material or a major cost component for other sample products [13][14]. - The market has traded two main themes this year: "excess" or "deflation" trading and "anti - involution" sentiment - driven supply - side 2.0 expected trading. The market was dominated by sentiment and capital behavior from late April to early June [14]. - From June to September, coal has a seasonal bullish characteristic. June is the safety production month, and July - September is the traditional demand peak season. There are potential marginal changes in supply contraction and demand expansion during this period [15][19]. Reasons for the June Rebound - Coal's seasonal bullish trend from June to September provides market expectations and a narrative basis [1][31]. - In June, the overall commodity valuation reached a significantly low level, offering good cost - effectiveness for capital to enter the market. For example, coking coal had a high cost - effectiveness ratio of 4:1 or 5:1 [27][28][31]. - The improving sentiment in the capital and commodity markets in late June provided a good environment for the rebound. The accidental events in July, such as the "anti - involution" policy, further boosted the upward trend [31]. Trading Suggestions and Lessons - Based on the above reasons, a suggestion to close short positions profitably in June could be made. However, large - scale long - position entry should be considered after the "anti - involution" policy on July 1 [37]. - Many short - position holders increased their positions instead of closing them, resulting in huge losses and even forced liquidation. They failed to recognize the objective development of the market [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].