Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short - term, with potential for further increase if downstream demand exceeds expectations in October. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuation. [4] - The coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the strategy is to buy on dips later. The supply of coking coal has policy support, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11][12] - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September. [13][14] - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by high supply pressure. Ferrosilicon may rebound slightly due to market sentiment, while silicomanganese will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. [15][16] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; from January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 671.806 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The spot prices of steel in different regions decreased by 10 yuan. [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile and slightly stronger at night. This week, the hot - metal output increased slightly, and the national building - material output decreased. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. Downstream demand improved with the temperature drop. Market news and low valuation led to the price increase. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve, and there is support for the black - metal sector. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel maintains a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 17th, the coking - coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose. This week, the national raw - coal daily output increased, with Shanxi's output rising. There were news of coal - mine production cuts and capacity checks. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts were provided. [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The coking - coal spot market sentiment was good recently. The supply of coking coal is restricted by policies, but imported coal provides some supplement. The upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, and buy on dips later. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released. The real - estate market showed signs of stabilization. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the main contract were provided. [13] - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore oscillated narrowly at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased, mainly from Brazilian mines. Terminal steel demand weakened in China but remained high overseas. The iron - ore price may face pressure at high levels. [13][14] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: The spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port on the 17th were provided. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut 50 basis points more in 2025. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weaker on the 17th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market sentiment was boosted by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The spot price of silicomanganese was slightly weaker, with increased production and high iron - water output, but the demand was dragged down by the decline in electric - furnace operating rates. The cost of manganese ore supported the price. [15][16] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Follow the market and be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the target should not be too high due to high supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations at high prices. [18]

供需略有改善 底部震荡运行 银河期货大宗商品研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端表现分化，本周硅铁产量小幅下降，锰硅产量小幅回升，总体来看，此前的持续复产趋势转为高位平稳 运行。需求方面，247家钢厂铁水产量在阅兵结束后大幅回升，原料需求也维持高位。不过，进入9月第2周，钢材需求回升 的情况仍不明显，本周样本钢材库存仍然有所累积，叠加钢材利润处于低位，减产冲击原料需求的风险仍然存在。成本端近 期主产区电价小幅上行，锰矿港口库存整体平稳，且明显低于往年同期，成本端对锰硅有所支撑。总体来看， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report The report concludes that the rebound of industrial products in June 2025 can be attributed to three main factors: the seasonal bullish trend of coal (a major contradiction in this year's commodity market) from June to September, the significantly low valuation of commodities in June offering good cost - effectiveness for capital entry, and the improving sentiment in the capital and commodity markets. The accidental events in July provided strong impetus for the upward rebound. The overall rebound could be anticipated to some extent, but the magnitude of the rebound was a combination of market volatility and accidental events, which was unpredictable [1][31][32]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Review - The price of commodities showed a clear divide around June 3, 2025. Before June 3, prices continued the downward trend since 2024, while after that date, the sentiment improved and prices started to rise, officially breaking away from the downward trend on the week of July 21 [4]. - Most industrial products, excluding some strong - macro and oil - related products, had their price inflection points in June [4]. Role of Coal in the Market - Coal, especially coking coal, has been a major contradiction and a main line in the commodity market since October 2024. It is either the direct upstream raw material or a major cost component for other sample products [13][14]. - The market has traded two main themes this year: "excess" or "deflation" trading and "anti - involution" sentiment - driven supply - side 2.0 expected trading. The market was dominated by sentiment and capital behavior from late April to early June [14]. - From June to September, coal has a seasonal bullish characteristic. June is the safety production month, and July - September is the traditional demand peak season. There are potential marginal changes in supply contraction and demand expansion during this period [15][19]. Reasons for the June Rebound - Coal's seasonal bullish trend from June to September provides market expectations and a narrative basis [1][31]. - In June, the overall commodity valuation reached a significantly low level, offering good cost - effectiveness for capital to enter the market. For example, coking coal had a high cost - effectiveness ratio of 4:1 or 5:1 [27][28][31]. - The improving sentiment in the capital and commodity markets in late June provided a good environment for the rebound. The accidental events in July, such as the "anti - involution" policy, further boosted the upward trend [31]. Trading Suggestions and Lessons - Based on the above reasons, a suggestion to close short positions profitably in June could be made. However, large - scale long - position entry should be considered after the "anti - involution" policy on July 1 [37]. - Many short - position holders increased their positions instead of closing them, resulting in huge losses and even forced liquidation. They failed to recognize the objective development of the market [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum is a significant industry exchange platform, featuring various sub-forums focused on open discussions and risk management for enterprises [1][2] - The forum attracts a diverse range of participants, including government officials, exchanges, futures companies, industry clients, and academic experts, enhancing its professional and forward-looking nature [2][3] - The themes of the forum have evolved to address current global commodity trade conditions, with topics ranging from rural revitalization to risk management for industrial enterprises, reflecting the ongoing development of the futures market [2][3] Group 2 - Participants express a strong interest in learning from international experiences, particularly regarding the internationalization of the Chinese futures market amidst global economic uncertainties [3] - Zhengzhou serves as a central hub for transportation, connecting major economic regions, and the forum is positioned as a vital platform for exchanging ideas and experiences in the global futures market [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamental analysis [5][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract unchanged [5]. - The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan on the day [5]. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook. China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy [5]. - China's exports and imports in July increased year - on - year. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend and require caution [6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [7]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. China's gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month in July. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [9]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes currently dominate the market, and prices may return to the industrial supply - demand logic in the medium term. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses rebar prices, while potential steel industry policies may be positive. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [11]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy affects the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but may weaken in the medium term. Technically, it is supported, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose. After previous fluctuations, they are returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. A coal production inspection policy has affected supply, and they may continue to be strong. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [15]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and ferroalloy production is rising while demand is weak, with high inventory. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels [17]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil declined due to the progress of US - Russia negotiations. OPEC+ increased production, and the market is waiting for the September meeting. The US non - farm data was poor, and geopolitical risks decreased. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined, blocked by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and Asian supply is abundant. The market expects more fuel oil arrivals, and the main contract is recommended to short the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [23]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Raw material prices recovered, and the industry's capacity utilization increased. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Supply disturbances slowed down, and the market corrected. The decline space is limited, and long positions can be considered on dips [27]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. Urea - Last trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will fluctuate with the spot, and in the medium term, it is considered bullish [34]. PX - Last trading day, PX fluctuated. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. It may fluctuate, and interval trading is considered [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA fell. Supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. However, due to the pressure on processing fees and increased production cuts by large manufacturers, the downside is supported, and interval trading is considered [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The overall supply is high, but overseas maintenance may reduce imports, and inventory is decreasing. Interval trading is considered, focusing on port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber fell. Supply is high, demand has improved, and it may follow cost fluctuations [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips fell. Raw material prices fluctuate, device maintenance increases, and inventory is stable. The market is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash fell. Production increased this week, and inventory rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term [45]. Glass - Last trading day, glass fell. The number of production lines is stable, and inventory is increasing. The destocking speed slows down, and the downstream demand is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda fell. Production increased after previous maintenance, and inventory rose. The demand for aluminum products provides some support, and the market is returning to the fundamental logic [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. High port inventory and international shipping suppress the market. The demand for household paper is weak, and the supply - demand balance is weak [49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is uncertain due to mining license issues. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high production and consumption improving, but high inventory. It is recommended to observe and control risks [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the domestic smelting cost has no room to decline. The Chinese stimulus policy is not satisfactory, but the Fed rate - cut expectation supports the price. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production may increase in the fourth quarter. The overall supply is still short, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore is weakening, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The low price stimulates demand, and the soybean crushing volume is high. The inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil is rising. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell due to concerns about inventory and production increases and weak export demand. Consider long positions in palm oil [60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rebounded. China's imports of rapeseed decreased in June, while imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. Consider long positions in rapeseed products [62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated, and overseas cotton fell. The global and domestic cotton supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [64]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas sugar fell due to crude oil. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase. China's sugar imports increased in June. It is recommended to observe [67]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production in the new season will increase slightly. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [69]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the summer. Consider reverse - spread strategies [72]. Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was stable in the main production areas and fell in the main sales areas. The production cost is high, and the profit is low. The egg supply is expected to increase in August. Consider reverse - spread strategies [75]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the price has pressure. Consider call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows corn [77]. Logs - Last trading day, logs rose. The import of New Zealand logs is expected to increase, and the price is rising. The demand from downstream factories is increasing, and the short - term market sentiment is bullish [80].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in commodity futures prices, particularly in iron alloy, lithium carbonate, and coking coal, has prompted multiple exchanges to issue risk warnings and adjust risk control parameters to ensure market stability [1][12][13]. Price Movements - On July 25, major domestic commodity futures contracts saw significant price increases, with coking coal futures rising for seven consecutive trading days, reaching 1259 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 49% for the month [4]. - Lithium carbonate futures also hit the limit, closing at 80,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 28% [4]. - Other commodities such as manganese silicon and silicon iron also reached their price limits, with monthly increases of 13% and 15%, respectively [4]. Market Dynamics - The total amount of funds in the futures market reached approximately 778.3 billion yuan, the highest since January 2014, indicating strong market activity [8]. - From June 3 to July 25, coking coal prices increased by 73%, while polysilicon and glass prices rose by 56% and 35%, respectively [8]. Policy Influence - Analysts attribute the price surge to the "anti-involution" policies emphasized in the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting, which aim to promote a unified national market and improve product quality [8][9]. - The policies are expected to lead to structural reforms in supply, contributing to the current bullish sentiment in the market [9]. Risk Management - Exchanges such as Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange have issued risk warnings to their members, urging them to enhance risk management and investor education [12][13]. - The Guangxi Exchange has adjusted risk control parameters for several commodities, including increasing margin requirements and transaction fees [13]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of commodities like manganese silicon will depend on the implementation of policies and the ability of downstream industries to absorb rising raw material costs [10]. - The market sentiment is currently driven by policy expectations, with a focus on the stability of external demand and substantial improvements in domestic demand [10][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For the stock index market, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For other futures markets, different views and strategies are proposed according to the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each variety. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [5]. - The growth rate of real estate loans has rebounded. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [5]. - It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 1.12%, 0.90%, 1.15%, and 0.66% respectively [8][9]. - Central enterprises are required to integrate into urban development, promote new - quality productivity, and improve the living environment [9]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver increased by 0.40% and 1.32% respectively [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, steel product futures rose sharply. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, the downward trend of demand and over - capacity still suppress prices. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it may continue to be strong in the short term. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of coking coal and coke reached the daily limit. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, over - capacity may lead to an increase in supply. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short in the medium term [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron increased by 1.76% and 3.74% respectively. The short - term demand has peaked, and supply may exceed demand. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - level support range [19][20]. - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and moved low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and various factors restricted oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Asian market may be in a state of supply surplus, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber increased by 1.72%. The supply - demand is short - term loose, and it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber increased. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, and it is advisable to pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC increased by 3.69%. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may be in a relatively strong oscillation [31][34]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea increased by 0.55%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to take a long - position view in the medium term [35][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX increased by 0.53%. The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is advisable to participate cautiously [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA increased by 0.38%. The short - term supply increases and demand weakens, but there is support at the bottom. It is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to the rebound of processing fees [39][40][41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol increased by 0.98%. The supply pressure is relieved, and it is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber increased by 0.75%. The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to follow the cost and pay attention to cost changes and production reduction [43][44][45]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips increased by 0.33%. The raw material price fluctuates, and it is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [46]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash increased by 8.01%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue highs or lows [47][48]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass increased by 9.08%. Affected by market sentiment, the price has risen, and it is advisable to pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda increased by 3.95%. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is supported by the main downstream. It is expected to oscillate narrowly [50][51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp increased by 0.75%. The supply tends to expand, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 2.71%. Although there are concerns about supply, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to observe more and operate less [54]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper opened high and oscillated. Although the US tariff has an impact, the price may rise. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][56][57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated and increased. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel increased. The first - grade nickel is in a state of surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [59][60]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal increased, and soybean oil decreased. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal and call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The export of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64][65]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed has fallen. The inventory of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal has changed, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [66][67]. - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand of cotton is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [69][70][71]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar markets have different situations. The short - term basis has been repaired, and it is advisable to wait and see [72][73][74]. - **Apples**: The expected reduction in apple production has been falsified, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices [75][76][77]. - **Pigs**: The price of live pigs has fallen slightly. It is in the off - season of consumption, and it is advisable to hold previous short positions [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs may increase in July, and it is advisable to consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [80][81][82]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price of corn has increased slightly, and the supply - demand of corn tends to be balanced. The production and demand of corn starch are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84][85]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs decreased by 0.48%. The supply has increased, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [86][87][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10]. - China's equity assets are still promising in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex, and different trading strategies should be adopted according to the specific fundamentals of each commodity, such as waiting for opportunities to short, going long at low positions, or temporarily observing. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income Products - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - Related Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the closing price of the gold main contract and a slight increase in the silver main contract. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and factors such as "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. 3.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper fluctuate slightly. The US imposing additional tariffs on copper has been confirmed, which has put downward pressure on Shanghai copper prices. After the decline, the price has gradually stabilized. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of Shanghai copper [57][58]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai tin fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption situation is good. The inventory at home and abroad is showing a downward trend. Overall, the supply is still in short supply [59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai nickel rise. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the actual consumption is still not optimistic. The refined nickel is still in an oversupply situation, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [60]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Although the important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still suppressing the price. The price rebound space may be limited. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for shorting opportunities after the rebound and set appropriate stop - profits [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy expectations have boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it may continue to be strong in the short - term. It is advisable for investors to pay attention to buying opportunities at low positions and set stop - profits in time [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day saw a late - session rally in coking coal and coke futures. The important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, but in reality, the coal mine start - up rate is rising, and the steel mill's procurement willingness is not strong. Technically, it may break through the previous high and continue to rise. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for appropriate mid - term shorting entry points and set stop - profits in time [17][18]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts close higher. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. After entering the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the overall price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to expand recently, it is advisable to consider low - value out - of - the - money call options [20]. 3.6 Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open low and close high, supported by the 10 - day moving average. The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support oil prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions against Russia still restrict oil prices. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of crude oil [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall, showing a weak trend. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is abundant, and trade frictions are intensifying, which is negative for fuel oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to shorting opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [24][25][27]. 3.7 Chemical Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract close higher. The raw material price has fallen, and the operating profit has turned positive. The supply - demand situation is short - term loose. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract close higher. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [30][31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract close slightly higher. The current PVC market still has an oversupply situation, but the room for further decline is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [32][33][36]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract close higher. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly, waiting for the implementation of policies and demand. It is advisable to treat it as oscillating in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [37][38]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day saw the PX2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply - demand balance of PX remains tight, but the support from crude oil costs is slightly insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil costs, and control risks [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply of PTA increases, the demand weakens, and the cost support from crude oil is slightly insufficient. However, the processing fee of PTA has dropped to a low level, and subsequent production cuts may increase. It is advisable to participate within a range and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee when it is low [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract rise. The supply pressure has been relieved recently, and the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. It is advisable to be cautious about the downward space and participate within a range, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2509 main contract fluctuate and adjust. The short - term fundamentals of short - fiber lack driving forces, and some factories have cut production. The processing fee is gradually recovering. It is advisable to be cautious about the space for the repair of the processing spread and pay attention to cost changes and the intensity of plant production cuts [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day saw the bottle chips 2509 main contract rise. Recently, the raw material price has fluctuated, and the support is slightly insufficient. The number of bottle chip plant overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the market will follow the cost - end oscillation. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of soda ash close higher. The short - term soda ash market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. It is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue high prices or short [47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of glass close higher. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving forces. The price increase yesterday was mainly due to the pull of the energy sector such as coking coal, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of caustic soda close lower. The short - term price may have some support, but the overall positive support is still relatively limited [50][51]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of pulp close higher. The supply of pulp still tends to expand, and the demand in the market is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract close higher. Although there are expectations of supply - side reforms and production cuts by enterprises, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory remains high. It is not advisable for investors to chase high prices [55][56]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures close higher. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the import cost has increased. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in the low - support range for soybean meal after adjustment, and for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support range after the price decline [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Malaysian palm oil futures close lower. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in July 1 - 15 was weak, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Canadian rapeseed futures close higher. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are all in the process of destocking. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in rapeseed products [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng cotton rebound to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July report raised the estimates of US cotton production and global inventory. The global supply - demand is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to observe [67][68][70]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng sugar fluctuate. The production forecast in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to observe [71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures rise slightly. The expected production reduction has been falsified, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [73][75][76]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of hogs close lower. The short - term price is expected to be stable with narrow adjustments. In the middle of the month, the group - farm slaughter volume has recovered, and the demand in the summer off - season is still weak. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [77][78]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of eggs close lower. The supply of eggs in July is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. It is advisable to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [79][80]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract and the corn starch main contract close higher. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased. It is advisable to observe. The production and demand of corn starch are both weak, and it mainly follows the corn market [81][82]. 3.9 Logs - **Logs**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of logs close higher. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery. The main 09 and far - month contracts are mainly influenced by positive sentiment, but the actual quoted price of standard products has not increased significantly [83][86].