Group 1 - The core objective of the upcoming talks in Geneva is to prevent the escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, marking the first high-level diplomatic engagement since Israel's recent attack on Iran [1] - The discussions aim to establish a framework for monitoring Iran's nuclear program, including demands for unrestricted access for international inspectors and commitments from Iran to reduce its ballistic missile stockpile [2] - The backdrop of these talks includes the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, which led to Iran expanding its nuclear activities, with uranium enrichment levels nearing weapon-grade [2] Group 2 - The French Foreign Minister emphasized that negotiations remain the only viable path to sustainably curb Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs [2] - The UK Foreign Secretary is expected to convey a message from the U.S. to Iran, indicating that diplomatic solutions are still possible [2] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about potential military actions, with speculation about U.S. military involvement in the region [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are highly volatile due to black swan events. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term bearish positions in the medium term [2] Core Viewpoints - Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz shipping route persist, leading to a significant increase in tanker freight rates, which impacts both crude oil and refined oil tanker freight rates [1] - The conflict between Iran and Israel may lead to disruptions in oil supply, causing significant fluctuations in oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On a certain day, the August - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 38 cents to $73.88 per barrel, a 0.52% increase; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose $2.15 to $78.85 per barrel, a 2.80% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.77% at 575 yuan per barrel [1] - The US is considering launching an attack on Iran this weekend, with the Fordo nuclear facility as the main target. Israel expects the US to decide whether to join the attack on Iran within 24 - 48 hours [1] - Since Israel's attack on Iran last week, the charter price of large oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled. The charter price of a very large crude carrier from the Gulf region to China soared from $19,998 per day last Wednesday to $47,609 per day this Wednesday, far exceeding the 12% increase in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) [1] - Citigroup analysts expect that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates and causes a disruption of Iran's 110,000 barrels per day of oil exports, the average price of Brent crude oil may rise by about 15% - 20% from the pre - conflict level of $65 per barrel, reaching $75 - $78 per barrel. If the oil supply disruption reaches about 3 million barrels per day and lasts for several months, the oil price may be pushed up to $90 per barrel. JPMorgan Chase predicts that in the most extreme scenario of a wider - area conflict including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may soar to $120 - $130 per barrel [1] - India's Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said that if the ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, India is preparing to purchase crude oil from outside the Persian Gulf and cut its refined oil exports. India has sufficient crude oil and refined oil inventories and diversified crude oil supply sources [1] - The sharp decline in ballast oil tankers entering the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in tanker freight rates, affecting both crude oil and refined oil tanker freight rates. After the conflict in the Middle East last week, the diesel crack spread strengthened significantly, while the gasoline crack did not strengthen due to the small volume of gasoline exports from the Middle East [1] Risks - Downside risks include the signing of the Iran nuclear deal and macro - level black swan events [3] - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

原油日报 | 2025-06-19 俄罗斯考虑进一步增产 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨30美分，收于每桶75.14美元，涨幅为0.40%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨25美分，收于每桶76.70美元，涨幅为0.33%。SC原油主力合约收涨3.52%，报564元/桶。 2、截至6月16日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油库存增加107.8万桶，或6.2%，至1841.9万桶。周度库存变动显 示，中质馏分油库存大幅增加，轻质馏分油库存小幅增加，重质残渣燃料油库存减少。包括汽油和石脑油在内的 轻质馏分油库存增加26.8万桶，或3.4%，至807万桶。柴油、航空燃料等中质馏分油库存增加110.6万桶，或140.5%， 至189.3万桶，继续自近期的低水平回升。重质残渣燃料油库存减少29.6万桶，或3.4%，至845.6万桶。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克称，如果有必要，俄罗斯和其他一些欧佩克+国家可能会提高原油产量，并补充说，这个 问题可能会在欧佩克+的框架内考虑，并参考分析机构的数据进行评估。他表示："我认为许多国家都可以提高（产 量）。关于具体 ...

Core Viewpoint - Israel's military actions against Iran will not cease unless the Fordow nuclear facility is destroyed, indicating a significant escalation in regional tensions and a potential need for U.S. military involvement [1][2]. Summary by Sections Israel's Military Strategy - Israel's military plans regarding Iran are independently formulated and encompass all elements of offensive action, maintaining ongoing communication with the U.S. without seeking direct involvement [1]. Fordow Nuclear Facility - The Fordow facility is located 90 meters underground, making it impervious to conventional weapons, necessitating U.S. military intervention for any airstrike to be effective [2]. - The facility is Iran's second uranium enrichment site, housing thousands of centrifuges, and has been accused by Israel of storing near-weapons-grade enriched uranium [2][4]. Historical Context - The Fordow facility was constructed during Ahmadinejad's presidency, officially declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2009, and began uranium enrichment activities in December 2011 [4][5]. - Following the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, Iran resumed enrichment activities, with uranium enrichment levels reaching 83.7% by March 2023, close to the 90% required for weapons-grade material [5]. Challenges in Military Action - The facility's depth poses significant challenges for any military strike, as it was designed to withstand external attacks, with Israel having previously developed multiple plans to target it [6][7]. - The U.S. possesses the GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, capable of penetrating deep underground targets, but its deployment would require U.S. pilots and presents numerous technical and operational challenges [9][10]. International Implications - Any military action against the Fordow facility raises concerns about potential nuclear leaks and broader international repercussions, as highlighted by former U.S. military officials [10].

自1979年迄今，伊朗的国家发展战略（或者说国家安全发展 战略）有3条线——明线、暗线、实线。明线是反以，打造阿 拉伯世界领袖地位；暗线是缓和与美欧的关系，以期解除制 裁、发展经济；实线就是发展核能，以便在关键时刻制造出核 武器，使其成为国家安全的柱石。现在看，伊朗的雄心和其能 力并不匹配。 作者：王义伟 封图：东方IC 2025年6月13日开始，以色列战机长途奔袭轰炸伊朗，伊朗以无人机和导弹还击，双方再一次大打 出手。截至笔者撰写此篇稿件，以色列一方占据明显优势，伊朗多处核设施遭到轰炸，伊朗多名军 方高层将领和核科学家被炸死。 美国方面，美国总统特朗普于6月16日提前一天离开正在加拿大举行的七国集团峰会，在白宫召集 国家安全团队讨论以伊冲突。据美国媒体报道，特朗普正考虑一系列选项，包括加入以色列对伊朗 的空袭。特朗普通过社交媒体要求伊朗"无条件投降"。 这一次，伊 朗面对 的形势更加凶险，也再一次凸显了对伊朗国运的终极拷问：核与政权孰轻孰 重，能否兼得。 先回顾一下伊朗政权及其核发展脉络。 1979年，巴列维王朝被推翻，伊朗成立新政权。这个新政权与以美国、以色列为首的西方世界持 续处于对立、对抗、冲突状态， ...

这一次，伊朗面对的形势更加凶险，也再一次凸显了对伊朗国运的终极拷问：核与政权孰轻孰重，能否 兼得。 先回顾一下伊朗政权及其核发展脉络。 1979年，巴列维王朝被推翻，伊朗成立新政权。这个新政权与以美国、以色列为首的西方世界持续处于 对立、对抗、冲突状态，迄今已46年。 2025年6月13日开始，以色列战机长途奔袭轰炸伊朗，伊朗以无人机和导弹还击，双方再一次大打出 手。截至笔者撰写此篇稿件，以色列一方占据明显优势，伊朗多处核设施遭到轰炸，伊朗多名军方高层 将领和核科学家被炸死。 美国方面，美国总统特朗普于6月16日提前一天离开正在加拿大举行的七国集团峰会，在白宫召集国家 安全团队讨论以伊冲突。据美国媒体报道，特朗普正考虑一系列选项，包括加入以色列对伊朗的空袭。 特朗普通过社交媒体要求伊朗"无条件投降"。 2002年，伊朗流亡反对派组织发布消息，称伊朗正秘密建造铀浓缩设施 和重水反应堆。该消息震惊世 界。2003年9月，国际原子能机构（IAEA）通过决议，要求伊朗签署《不扩散核武器条约》并中止铀浓 缩活动，伊核问题正式爆发，迄今已经22年。 需要说明的是，根据《不扩散核武器条约》，包括中国在内的国际社会是不允许伊 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the recent Israel-Iran conflict, compares it with the two conflicts in 2024, and points out that the intensity of this round of conflict may exceed that of 2024. It also proposes three possible development paths and corresponding coping strategies [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Geopolitical Situation Review - On June 9, Iran rejected the US "Iran Nuclear Deal" and planned to submit its own proposal to the US through Oman [12]. - On June 10, the US and Iran were expected to hold the sixth - round of negotiations over the weekend. Iran warned that if attacked by Israel, it would target Israel's secret nuclear facilities [13]. - On June 11, Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US bases in the Middle East if the negotiation failed [14][15]. - On June 12, US non - essential personnel and their families in Kuwait, Bahrain and the US embassy in Iraq prepared to evacuate. The possibility of the sixth - round of US - Iran negotiations decreased [15]. - On June 13, Israel launched an air strike on Iran, named "Lion's Strength", and declared a national special emergency. Iran reported possible casualties of important leaders and an attack on its nuclear facility [17]. Past Israel - Iran Conflicts Reference - In April 2024, both sides carried out mutual air strikes but avoided attacking nuclear facilities. The oil price rose about 6% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [20][21]. - In October 2024, there were limited air strikes, and both sides remained relatively restrained. The oil price rose about 13% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [26][27]. Future Development Possibilities and Coping Strategies - **Conflict Intensity Comparison**: This conflict may be more intense than those in 2024 due to possible casualties of important Iranian leaders, direct attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the unclear US attitude. The Brent crude oil has risen about 18% from the low to the high in the past three trading days [28]. - **Possible Development Paths**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: If Iran responds with restraint and the US pressures Israel again, the oil price may have reached its peak [28]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: If Iran retaliates against Israel's nuclear facilities and the US supports Israel's counter - attack, the oil price may reach the range of $85 - 90 [28]. - A full - scale war: If Iran's retaliation is severe and involves Israel and the US, and the US loses control of the situation, the oil price may rise above $100 in the short term [28]. - **Coping Strategies**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: Close all double - bought options and consider selling call options [33]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: Partially close double - bought options and retain the remaining part to monitor the intensity [33]. - A full - scale war: Close put options, increase call option positions or sell put options [33]. - Key observation points include Iran's counter - attack time and intensity, whether the US - Iran negotiation will continue over the weekend, and the US stance [33].

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8850.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/12 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7100.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 6520.00 | 6495.00 | 0.38% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 5840.00 | 5820.00 | 0.34% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/1 ...

中东突发。 当地时间11日，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗不会不惜一切代价达成核协议。佩泽希齐扬重申，伊朗 不会制造核弹，但不允许任何人对伊朗施加压力。 "美军所有基地都在射程内" 伊朗称测试一枚带有2吨弹头的导弹 当地时间11日，纳西尔扎德谈到美国最近对伊朗的威胁时表示，若冲突被迫发生，美国损失将远超伊 朗。 当地时间6月11日，美国总统特朗普在华盛顿肯尼迪表演艺术中心参加活动时表示，美国人员正在撤离 中东地区。 当被问及为何要求美国人员离开时，特朗普回答称，因为"那里可能是一个危险的地方，我们将看看会 发生什么"。特朗普同时表示，美国不会允许伊朗拥有核武器。 伊朗国防部长纳西尔扎德6月11日警告称，如果伊朗与美国有关伊朗核问题的谈判失败，伊朗与美国发 生军事冲突，伊朗将袭击美国在中东地区的军事基地。此外还有报道称，一旦认为美国与伊朗无法就清 除伊朗所有的浓缩铀达成协议，以色列将对伊朗核设施发动袭击。 美国国务院11日说，已要求美国驻伊拉克使馆非必要人员及其家属撤离伊拉克。五角大楼同一天表示， 美国防长赫格塞思批准驻中东地区的美军家属自愿撤离。美媒援引匿名国防部官员的话报道，美军中央 司令部正在监视"中东地区 ...

中东突发。 当地时间6月11日，美国总统特朗普在华盛顿肯尼迪表演艺术中心参加活动时表示，美国人员正在撤离中东地区。 当被问及为何要求美国人员离开时，特朗普回答称，因为"那里可能是一个危险的地方，我们将看看会发生什么"。特朗普同时表示，美国不会允许伊朗拥有核武 器。 伊朗国防部长纳西尔扎德6月11日警告称，如果伊朗与美国有关伊朗核问题的谈判失败，伊朗与美国发生军事冲突，伊朗将袭击美国在中东地区的军事基地。此外还 有报道称，一旦认为美国与伊朗无法就清除伊朗所有的浓缩铀达成协议，以色列将对伊朗核设施发动袭击。 美国国务院11日说，已要求美国驻伊拉克使馆非必要人员及其家属撤离伊拉克。五角大楼同一天表示，美国防长赫格塞思批准驻中东地区的美军家属自愿撤离。美 媒援引匿名国防部官员的话报道，美军中央司令部正在监视"中东地区日益紧张的局势"。 伊朗总统：伊朗不会不惜一切代价达成核协议 当地时间11日，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗不会不惜一切代价达成核协议。佩泽希齐扬重申，伊朗不会制造核弹，但不允许任何人对伊朗施加压力。 "美军所有基地都在射程内" 伊朗称测试一枚带有2吨弹头的导弹 当地时间11日，纳西尔扎德谈到美国最近对伊朗 ...