Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will continue [1] - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] - The Central Committee and the State Council support guiding local governments to directly distribute maternity insurance benefits to insured individuals and to reasonably increase the minimum wage standard [1] - Premier Li Qiang presided over the 14th special study session of the State Council, emphasizing the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified enterprises to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported that in the first five months of this year, the total import and export of goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year; trade with the US decreased by 8.1% during the same period [1] International News - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the US proposal regarding the nuclear agreement is "unacceptable," with the next round of nuclear negotiations expected to take place in Oman on Sunday [2] - Protests in Los Angeles have led California to sue the Trump administration over troop deployment, with Trump expressing a desire to avoid civil war in the US [2] Other News - Japan is considering repurchasing some ultra-long-term government bonds [3] - Japan's chief negotiator Akizawa Ryozo plans to visit the US this week [3] - Trump announced a newborn savings plan, proposing to save $1,000 for each child born [3] - The US Senate plans to introduce significant adjustments to Trump's tax reform proposal this week [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that measures to avoid reaching the debt ceiling will be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September [3] - The Canadian Prime Minister stated that Canada should no longer allocate 75% of its defense budget to the US and will diversify its defense partnerships [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program and its relations with the U.S. and Israel, are critical to monitor as they may impact regional stability and global markets [1]. Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Negotiations - The sixth round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled to take place in Oslo, Norway, or Muscat, Oman, this week [1]. - Iran's Foreign Ministry has stated that it will take retaliatory measures if the IAEA passes a resolution against Iran [1]. - Iran's proposal regarding the nuclear agreement will be communicated to the U.S. through Oman, as the Iranian government deems the U.S. plan "unacceptable" [1]. Group 2: International Relations and Developments - The spokesperson for Iran's Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee indicated that Russia will construct eight nuclear power plants in Iran [1]. - There is a possibility that Iran may withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty if the IAEA pressures Iran and triggers the mechanism [1]. - Israeli Prime Minister and former President Trump discussed the Iranian nuclear issue and other topics in a 40-minute phone call [1].

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in London, attended by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council [1] - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasizes the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified companies to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions aimed at further ensuring and improving people's livelihoods, focusing on addressing urgent and difficult issues faced by the public [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the activities of Chinese naval vessels in relevant waters fully comply with international law and conventions [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in goods trade imports and exports in the first five months of this year, with trade with the U.S. decreasing by 8.1% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] International News - Japan's chief negotiator Akira Amari plans to visit the U.S. this week regarding tariffs [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the U.S. proposal concerning the Iran nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a state of indecision, awaiting a driving force, while the energy and chemical sector continues to show a weak pattern Most energy and chemical varieties are in a downward structure, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [1][3][4] - The long - term oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged The short - term driving force focuses on the new Iran nuclear deal or potential macro - driving factors The macro - economy, which has been directionless since May, may weaken again, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls data on Friday night [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: In June, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations Kazakhstan has low compliance with production cuts, and Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production increases in August - September The EIA data is not the focus currently The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached [5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is around 468 - 470 The strategy is to hold short positions in the 07 contract with a passive stop - profit at 470 [5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The port inventory of pure benzene, the raw material, has reached a five - year high, and the supply of benzene ethylene is strong while demand is weak, facing downward pressure from raw materials [9] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7270 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7270 [12] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber inventory is accumulating counter - seasonally, the supply is increasing, and the demand for tires is under pressure [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 14000 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [13] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is facing pressure to increase, and the demand is suppressed by tire inventory [16] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 11470 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [16][19] PX - Logic: The supply and demand of PX have weakened in the short term, and the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6630 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [20] PTA - Logic: The short - term supply and demand of PTA are still strong, but the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4680 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [23] PP - Logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by new capacity and maintenance The price may follow the crude oil price in the short term [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6980 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [27] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas device operation rates are high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate under high import pressure [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend The support is at 2230 The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [30] PVC - Logic: The supply will increase as the maintenance devices resume operation, and the demand is insufficient in the off - season [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4980 The strategy is to try short - selling with a stop - loss at 4850 [34] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply is expected to increase, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4370 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4370 [37][38] Plastic - Logic: The supply is affected by new maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7120 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7120 [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil rebounded again to test the pressure, and the energy and chemical sector generally rebounded, but it is still regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal before breaking through the pressure [1]. - The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached, and OPEC+ production increase remains a long - term constraint on oil prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations. Kazakhstan refused to cut production, and the production cut implementation rate was low. Canada's oil sands production was affected by wildfires. Geopolitically, the Russia - Ukraine situation had limited impact on oil. The US made concessions on the Iran nuclear deal, and it is likely to be reached [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 468 today but did not effectively break through. The 07 - contract short position is held, and the passive stop - profit reference is 470 [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The port inventory of pure benzene reached a 5 - year high, and the supply was abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory increased, supply was high, and demand did not improve, so it is bearish in the medium term [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was regarded as a position - reducing rebound today, not a trend reversal. The short - term pressure is at 7270. Short positions are continued to be held [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Domestic rubber inventory increased seasonally. Supply in Southeast Asia was expected to increase, and tire inventory was high, so it is bearish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails to break through the pressure at 14000 [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, and tire inventory pressure restricts demand [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 11470 [11]. (5) PX - **Logic**: PX device maintenance recovery was slow, downstream PTA start - up declined, and the cost of crude oil had downward pressure [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 6735 [15]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The expected "export rush" did not occur, but short - term supply - demand was still strong due to device maintenance. The cost of crude oil had downward pressure [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [17]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It entered the off - season, demand was weak, and new production capacity was expected. It may follow the crude oil price in the short term [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 6980. Short positions are held [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic device start - up was high, downstream olefin demand was weak, and overseas imports were expected to increase, so the disk was under pressure [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. The short - term pressure is at 2255. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 2255 [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Device maintenance was expected to end, and demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the off - season [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. Look for short - selling opportunities at the reversal pattern near the short - term pressure of 4980 [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply is expected to increase after device recovery, and short - term polyester demand is okay, with not obvious supply - demand contradictions [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure may end. Short positions are stopped at profit [29][31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Supply decreased due to new maintenance, demand was weak after the off - season of agricultural films, and inventory pressure increased [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated with a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 7120. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 7120 [32].

金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（6月4日） 加沙冲突： 7. 以色列军方发言人周三警告加沙居民不要进入通往美国支持的救援组织配送中心的地区，称这些地区 是"战区"。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 1. 以色列军方表示，在加沙北部的战斗中，三名士兵遇难。 2. 加沙卫生部表示，已有24名巴勒斯坦人于周二清晨在拉法等待援助分发时遇难。 3. 以色列军方表示，部队并未阻止加沙居民前往救援物资分发点。 4. 以军在加沙援助物资分发点开枪造成至少27人死亡。 5. 以色列多地拉响防空警报，本-古里安国际机场关闭。 6. 以色列军方表示，两次导弹从叙利亚方向发射，向以色列方向飞来，落在空旷地区。 1. 最近几周内500名美军撤离叙利亚，多个美军基地被移交。 2. 卡塔尔宣布向叙利亚提供电力和财政支持。 3. 联合国安理会将就加沙人道主义决议草案进行表决。 4. 伊朗外交部长：在伊朗境内进行铀浓缩是我们的红线。 5. 美媒：特朗普提议伊核协议新框架，伊朗将数日后回应。 其他情况： ...

美媒：特朗普提议伊核协议新框架 伊朗将数日后回应 金十数据6月4日讯，据纽约时报报道， 特朗普政府正提议达成一项协议，允许伊朗继续进行低浓度铀 浓缩活动，同时美国和其他国家将制定更详细的计划，以阻止伊朗发展核武器，同时允许其获得用于新 核电站的核燃料。该提议是当前局势与美国目标之间的桥梁，当前伊朗正在迅速生产接近武器级的浓缩 铀，而美国的目标是伊朗在其本土完全不进行铀浓缩活动。根据该提议，美国将协助伊朗建造核电站， 并就由地区国家组成的财团管理浓缩设施的建设进行谈判。一旦伊朗从这些承诺中获得任何好处，就必 须停止在该国进行的所有铀浓缩活动。欧洲官员描述了这项潜在协议的大纲，这项提议于周末提交给了 伊朗。 伊朗官员表示，将在几天后做出回应。欧洲官员称，美国中东特使维特科夫起草的新提案，在 许多最重要的问题上措辞模糊，表明未来还有大量谈判要进行。 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 ...

原油高开低走未现转势, 合成胶与苯乙烯跌幅居前仍是首选空品种 行情日评: 假期外盘原油受 OPEC+增产未超预期以及周末乌克兰对俄罗斯 腹地机场袭击造成较大规模损失,俄乌局势升温影响一度走强。今日 原油高开反应外盘涨幅后一路走低,短期盘面未见转势,俄乌地缘升 温对原油实际影响有限,OPEC+7月维持高速增产,供应压力依旧, 中期结构 小时周期策略 品种 短期结构 偏空 偏空 原油 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PX 寻反抽结束做空机会 偏空 偏空 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 塑料 偏空 偏空 空单持有 空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EG 寻反抽结束做空机会 橡胶 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 板块观点汇总 原油短期更多关注新伊核协议方面进展;能化系中今日合成胶与苯乙 烯跌幅居前,三大橡胶与聚烯烃类品种仍是基本面向下逻辑较清晰的 优先空配品种。 (一) 原油: 逻辑:供需方面 6月 opec+会议上确定 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日, 未超预期,自愿减产方面哈萨克斯坦多次公开表态拒绝减产 ...

智通财经APP获悉，伊朗与美国代表团将于周五在罗马重启核问题谈判，这场持续二十余年的地缘博弈 迎来关键节点。尽管双方均表示希望通过外交途径解决争端，但伊朗坚持保留铀浓缩权利的立场，与美 国"零浓缩"要求形成根本性对立，使得谈判前景充满不确定性。 伊朗首席谈判代表、外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在会谈前夕通过社交媒体划出底线："零核武器=协议可达 成，零浓缩铀=谈判无意义。"这直接回应了美国务卿马尔科·卢比奥周二提出的条件——美国可接受伊 朗拥有民用核能，但必须彻底放弃铀浓缩活动。 关键分歧集中于三大领域：伊朗拒绝将高浓缩铀库存全部转移出境、拒绝就弹道导弹计划展开谈判，同 时要求美方提供"不会再次单方面毁约"的制度性保障。作为交换，伊朗虽表示可接受部分铀浓缩限制， 但坚持必须以解除经济制裁为前提。 尽管伊朗官方强调谈判为"间接性质"，但美方披露包括5月11日阿曼会谈在内的五轮磋商均采用"直间接 并行"模式。这种微妙平衡折射出双方政治考量：伊朗既需通过阿曼等第三方保持外交回旋空间，又难 以完全拒绝与美方特使史蒂夫·维特科夫的实质性接触。 谈判破裂的代价正持续累积。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周四与特朗普通话后重申："必须彻底剥夺伊 ...

智通财经5月22日电，阿曼外交大臣巴德尔21日晚间通过其社交账号表示，伊朗美国第五轮核问题谈判 将于5月23日在罗马举行。美国与伊朗4月12日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行间接会谈。这是自2018年5月在 美国总统特朗普首个总统任期内美国单方面退出伊核协议之后，美伊之间的首次正式谈判。4月19日， 伊美在意大利罗马举行第二轮间接会谈。4月26日，伊美再次在马斯喀特举行第三轮间接会谈。5月11 日，伊美在马斯喀特举行第四轮间接会谈。 第五轮伊美核问题谈判将于5月23日在罗马举行 ...