Core Viewpoint - OECD predicts a slowdown in US growth rate to 1.6% by 2025, down by 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - OECD forecasts global growth rate at 2.9% for 2025, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The impact of tariffs has led to significant slowdowns in trade and investment, particularly in the US, where inflation and growth deceleration are expected to persist [1] Group 2: US Economic Impact - The average tariff rate on imported goods in the US has risen to over 15%, the highest level since 1938, contributing to increased domestic prices [1] - The inflation rate in the US is projected to rise to 3.2%, reflecting the effects of higher tariffs on consumer prices and purchasing power [1] Group 3: Regional Economic Projections - Countries closely linked to the US economy, such as Canada, Mexico, and Japan, are expected to face economic downturns, with Japan's growth rate projected to drop to 0.7% in 2025 [2] - China's growth outlook has been slightly adjusted, with consumption slowdown and real estate market adjustments being key factors, although government stimulus is expected to provide support [2] - The Eurozone is anticipated to maintain stable growth, with regional demand offsetting tariff impacts, supported by investments in defense and infrastructure [2]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's report indicates high levels of economic and policy uncertainty in the U.S., negatively impacting businesses and households [1][2] - Since late April, overall economic activity has slightly declined, with half of the Federal Reserve districts experiencing mild or moderate downturns [1] - Consumer spending shows mixed results, with most districts reporting slight declines or no change, although some anticipate increased spending due to tariff impacts [1] Employment Trends - Employment conditions across most Federal Reserve districts have remained stable, but there is a noted decrease in labor demand, reflected in reduced working hours, paused hiring, and planned layoffs [1] Price and Cost Pressures - Since late April, there has been a slight increase in prices, with widespread expectations of faster price and cost increases across all Federal Reserve districts [2] - The report highlights that tariff increases are contributing to upward pressure on costs and prices [2] Future Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, showing no significant change from the previous report [1] - The next Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is scheduled for June 17-18, which will consider the findings of this report [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that high levels of economic and policy uncertainty are negatively impacting businesses and households, with tariff increases leading to rising costs and prices [1][2] - Economic activity has shown a slight decline since late April, with half of the districts reporting mild or moderate decreases in economic activity [1][2] - Consumer spending is mixed, with most districts experiencing slight declines or no change, although some districts have seen increased spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - The overall economic outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged from the previous report [2] - Employment levels have seen minimal changes, with most districts reporting stable employment conditions, but there are widespread discussions about hiring delays due to uncertainty [2] - Price levels have experienced moderate increases since late April, with widespread expectations of faster future price increases due to rising costs, particularly from tariff hikes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The service sector activity in the U.S. fell into contraction for the first time in nearly a year due to a sharp decline in demand and the impact of tariff increases on the economy, leading to accelerated price rises [1] Group 1: Service Sector Performance - The ISM service index dropped by 1.7 points to 49.9 in May, indicating a contraction as it fell below the neutral level of 50, which was below market expectations [1] - The most significant decline was observed in new orders, while the prices paid index reached its highest level since the end of 2022, highlighting the pronounced effects of increased import tariffs on demand and inflation [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the ISM data, U.S. Treasury yields decreased, and the gains in the S&P 500 index narrowed [1] Group 3: Business Sentiment - Steve Miller, chairman of the ISM survey committee, noted that the overall index does not indicate severe contraction but reflects the uncertainty experienced by surveyed businesses [1] - Respondents reported challenges in forecasting and planning due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, leading to delays or reductions in orders until more clarity is achieved [1]

金十数据6月3日讯，4月美国工厂订单降幅超过预期，此前3月买家因关税大幅上调而加速采购。4月份 新订单从3月份的6,174亿美元降至5,946亿美元，降幅为3.7%。接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家预 计订单将下降3.3%。在3月，工厂订单增长了3.4%，因为买家在新关税的预期下加大了采购。4月未交 割订单金额大致持平，为1.409万亿美元。库存连续第七个月增长，达到5,868亿美元。 美国4月工厂订单量下降 3月因关税上调预期而大幅增长 ...

据经合组织测算，今年5月中旬美国对进口商品的实际关税税率从2024年的略高于2%上调至15.4%。佩 雷拉表示，这对美国来说已达到"1938年以来最高水平，而如果以4月9日宣布的关税水平来看将是19世 纪90年代以来最高"。 新华财经巴黎6月3日电（记者李文昕）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）3日发布经济展望报告，将 2025和2026年全球经济增速均下调至2.9%。2日，该组织首席经济学家阿尔瓦罗·桑托斯·佩雷拉在报告 发布前的媒体吹风会上向法国媒体（接受法新社采访时）表示："由于关税，我们几乎下调了全球所有 经济体的经济增长预期……贸易受到了影响，尤其是消费和投资。" 佩雷拉3日在经济展望报告发布会上表示，当前全球经济经贸政策面临重大的、前所未有的不确定性， 对各项经济指标产生了深远影响。他提到，贸易的不确定性、美国贸易政策的剧烈变化是造成包括美 国、加拿大等国经济预期下调的重要原因。 经合组织将于3日至4日在巴黎举行部长级会议，美国和欧盟谈判代表也将在此次会议期间就关税问题进 行讨论。"我们有理由担心，保护主义和与贸易政策相关的不确定性将进一步加剧。"佩雷拉3日在部长 级会议开幕式上表示。 （文章来源：新 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a shift in consumer behavior in the U.S. as families increase savings in response to economic uncertainty and changing tariff environments [2][5][6] - Consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has shown signs of slowing down, with a notable decrease in the monthly growth rate of consumer spending from 0.7% in March to 0.2% in April [3][4] - The personal savings rate in the U.S. has risen to 4.9%, the highest level in a year, as consumers save a significant portion of their income growth [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is cautious about monetary policy, with recent data indicating a minimal increase in core inflation, which may not prompt a rate cut despite concerns over rising tariffs [3][4] - A survey indicates that a significant portion of high-income households is becoming more sensitive to prices, leading to reduced discretionary spending [5][6] - Many consumers are adopting cost-saving measures, such as cooking at home and changing service providers, reflecting a broader trend of increased savings and reduced spending [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, which led to a significant increase in the gold market by nearly $28 on the same day [1] - Key economic data and policy events to watch this week include ADP employment data, non-farm payroll reports, public statements from Federal Reserve officials, and a crucial speech by Fed Chair Powell [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently under pressure below the key resistance level of $3325, with a bullish trend forming in the one-hour moving average system [3] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy involves taking short positions on gold if it rebounds to the $3325 resistance level, with a stop loss set at $3333 and a target range of $3310 to $3290 [3] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring the $3325 resistance level closely for potential trading opportunities [3]

港股黄金股集体走强，截至发稿，潼关黄金涨10.42%、赤峰黄金（600988）涨3.78%、珠峰黄金涨 3.24%、招金矿业涨0.91%。消息方面，关税问题再度引发市场担忧，比如美国总统特朗普表示，美国 将从6月初起把进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。受此消息刺激，COMEX黄金升至3330美 元。(智通财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - Gap Inc's stock has dropped significantly by 19.7% to $22.49 following a disappointing current-quarter guidance, which forecasts flat sales, failing to meet Wall Street's growth expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Despite the weak outlook, Gap reported a strong first quarter, beating earnings and revenue estimates with earnings of 51 cents per share on revenue of $3.46 billion [2] - Executives indicated that proposed tariff hikes by President Trump could result in a cost impact of $250 million to $300 million, although mitigation efforts may reduce this to $100 million to $150 million [2] Group 2: Analyst Reactions - At least four analysts have lowered their price targets for Gap, with Jefferies and UBS adjusting their targets to $26 and $17 from $29, respectively [3] - The current 12-month consensus target price still reflects a 22.6% premium over the current stock levels [3] Group 3: Stock Performance - The recent selloff has erased year-to-date gains, with the stock now down 4.4% and on track for a fifth consecutive daily loss, marking the worst weekly performance since 2021 [4] - The $22 level is acting as support, but the stock is likely to close below its 20-day moving average [4] Group 4: Options Market Activity - Options traders have reacted quickly, with over 32,000 calls and 30,000 puts traded, which is 14 times the average intraday volume [5] - The most active option is the weekly 5/30 22.50-strike put, with new positions being opened and set to expire at today's close [5]