截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.31美元，跌幅为0.31%；12月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶65.62美元，跌幅为0.49%。（总台央视记者 贺嘉婧） 伊拉克石油部长周一（27日）表示，上周末发生在该国祖拜尔油田的火灾并未对石油出口造成影响，此 外，他还说，正在就伊拉克的石油产量配额问题与欧佩克展开谈判。市场担心原油可能会再次面临供应 过剩，国际油价周一承压下跌。 编辑：王一帆 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年11月原油月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 10月5日，OPEC+八国决定将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力。 原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据显示美国炼厂开工低位反弹，美国原油超预期去库，成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而 有所减少。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石 油进口的可能。在欧美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度最大的私营炼油商信实工业表示将调整炼油厂的运营以满足合规要求。由于 乌克兰加大对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击力度，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将柴油和汽油出口禁令延长至年底。目前俄罗 斯原油出口量仍处高位。EIA月报预计2025年四季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the ninth price cut of the year [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of October 27, 2023, gasoline prices will decrease by 265 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 255 yuan per ton, resulting in a reduction of approximately 0.21 yuan for 92-octane gasoline and 0.22 yuan for diesel per liter [1]. - After the adjustment, the price of 92-octane gasoline will range from 6.8 to 6.9 yuan per liter, while diesel will be priced between 6.5 and 6.7 yuan per liter [1]. International Oil Market Analysis - The initial phase of the price adjustment was influenced by a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums due to easing tensions in the Middle East, alongside increased production from OPEC+ [2]. - Brent crude oil prices fell to around 61 USD per barrel, the lowest in six months, but later rebounded due to uncertainties regarding Russian oil supply and postponed US-Russia summit [2]. - Despite the rebound, the average international oil price remains significantly lower than in the previous adjustment cycle, indicating a general downward trend [2]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and ongoing sanctions against certain oil-producing countries may provide short-term support for international oil prices, but the overall market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply [2][3]. - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth, predicting a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day next year, which may limit upward price movements [2].

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The upcoming week will focus on the APEC leaders' informal meeting and the "Super Central Bank Week," where major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 30, with internal divisions among members regarding labor market risks and inflation concerns [2] - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are also anticipated to maintain current interest rates, with the Bank of Japan cautious about early tightening and the European Central Bank ruling out further rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with August's data showing a persistent year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. will also release third-quarter GDP data, while China will announce the official manufacturing PMI for October, with expectations of a potential rise above the previous month's 49.8% [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil refiner, has decided to stop purchasing Russian oil following U.S. sanctions, which previously accounted for about one-third of India's total oil imports [5][6] - The international oil market saw a rebound after hitting a five-month low, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 5% and Brent crude oil futures increasing over 7% last week [10] - The recent sanctions against Russian oil companies have heightened concerns about supply disruptions, contributing to the oil price rebound [11] - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreasing, indicating a tightening supply situation [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is that the interruption of Russian oil exports has disrupted short - term supply, and one should wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The "blockade sanctions" imposed by the US on two major Russian oil giants on October 22 are the main disruptive factors, which have pushed up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. However, the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited, and the supply side shows short - term tightness but strong medium - to - long - term adaptability [6]. - The demand side shows a situation of regional differentiation and overall weakness. The sanctions have forced changes in the import patterns of major consumer countries. Global oil demand growth is weak, and actual oil consumption capacity is lower than expected, offsetting the risk of supply disruptions caused by geopolitics. The expected warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere may further suppress heating oil demand, so the demand side cannot provide strong upward momentum for oil prices [7]. - Short - term: Wait and see, beware of further corrections. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. Although the decline of oil prices has accelerated under the influence of this round of trade frictions, the medium - to - long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, and oil price fluctuations may increase [8]. Summary by Directory Overview - The interruption of Russian oil exports due to US sanctions has disrupted short - term supply. The sanctions have affected about 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, mainly pushing up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. Other supply sources are filling the gap, but the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited. The demand side is weak, with regional differentiation and overall lack of upward momentum for oil prices [6][7]. Macro - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated again, and the gold - oil ratio has increased. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [26][32][37]. Supply - OPEC is continuously increasing production. The eight participating countries in OPEC + are adjusting their production, and the reduction in production is being gradually lifted. The 9 - month production increase completion rate of OPEC 8 is 80%, and institutional statistics show nearly 1 million barrels per day. OPEC's maritime exports remain at a low level with no obvious increase [10][45][46]. - The supply situations of various countries/regions vary. For example, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have certain idle production capacities; the demand for some grades of oil in Guyana is strong; Russia's refinery capacity has been damaged, but its crude oil export potential has increased; the production of US shale oil is facing challenges [11][12]. Demand - Asian strategic reserve procurement has slowed down. Chinese refiners are consuming inventory, and the demand for spot imports has weakened. Indian refineries' procurement decisions have been affected by US sanctions, but their interest in Russian oil has reignited recently. North American, European, and Asian refineries are entering the seasonal maintenance period, and direct crude oil demand has temporarily weakened [13][14]. Inventory - US commercial inventories have increased, while the inventory in the Cushing area is still significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are oscillating strongly, European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are being depleted. Domestic refined oil margins are rebounding [89][91][93]. Price and Spread - In the global crude oil spot market, the sanctions on Russia have led to an increase in Middle - Eastern quotations. Middle - Eastern crude oil discounts have surged, the US export situation is favorable, the North Sea market is stable, the outlook for low - sulfur crude oil in the Mediterranean is bearish, and the West African market is affected by weak Chinese demand [97][99].

Group 1 - Hedge funds holding record short positions in Brent crude oil failed to capitalize on the recent price increase [1] - As of October 21, hedge fund managers increased their short positions in Brent crude oil by 40,233 contracts to a historical high of 197,868 contracts [1] - The market had anticipated an oversupply of crude oil, evidenced by rising offshore oil inventories, leading to a bearish stance among hedge funds [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, disrupting market expectations and potentially supporting oil prices [1] - The sanctions could lead to a reduction of up to 600,000 barrels per day in Russian oil production, alleviating the oversupply situation [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of the weekly U.S. crude oil inventory report, making the recent trading data particularly significant for market sentiment analysis [2]

受全球地缘风险影响，原油期货价格最近几个交易日大幅反弹。10月23日，上海原油期货主力合约涨幅 超4%；截至记者发稿时，NYMEX原油期货涨超5.6%，最近3个交易日累计涨幅已超8%。 "短期地缘风险抬头，油价向上修复，但本次冲突的题材仍是老调重弹，叠加全球宏观经济不稳，需警 惕随时回落。"正信期货研究院报告认为，地缘风险不断扰动，交易节奏难以把握，仍需关注国际原油 产能过剩矛盾带来的逢高抛空机会。 目前，全球石油市场总体呈现"供大于求"的局面。一方面，OPEC+逐步增产；另一方面，俄罗斯等原 油出口大国出口量也处于高位，市场供应充足。在需求方面，全球经济增长放缓的预期使得市场对石油 需求的预测趋于保守。国际能源署(IEA)已连续多月下调全球石油需求增长预期。 值得注意的是，纽约WTI原油期货12月与明年1月合约价差，近日出现5个月以来首次转为期货升水结 构，即近月合约价格低于远月合约，显示市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧。而且海上浮动原油量激增至接近 2020年疫情时期水平，表明陆上库存正在饱和。瑞银集团认为，尽管最新制裁可能会给原油价格近期带 来波动性，但全球石油市场供应过剩的状况应有助于限制油价持续上涨的风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, along with the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia, have heightened concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supply, leading to significant increases in international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sanctions and Market Reactions - The U.S. sanctions now encompass all four major Russian oil companies, with Rosneft and Lukoil being the latest targets, which could impact nearly half of Russia's oil exports, approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year [1][4]. - Following the announcement, international oil prices surged, with Shanghai crude futures closing up over 4% and NYMEX crude futures rising more than 5.8% [2][4]. - The sanctions are expected to reduce India's purchases of Russian oil, as India currently sources over 36% of its crude imports from Russia [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently characterized by an oversupply situation, with OPEC+ gradually increasing production and major oil-exporting countries maintaining high export levels [5][6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded global oil demand growth forecasts due to expectations of a slowing global economy [5]. - Recent market indicators, such as the WTI crude futures structure showing a shift to a contango state, suggest increasing concerns over supply excess [5]. Group 3: Price Forecasts and Market Outlook - Despite the recent sanctions potentially causing short-term volatility in oil prices, the overall oversupply situation is expected to limit sustained price increases, with Brent crude projected to remain in the $60 to $70 per barrel range [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates further declines in Brent crude prices, potentially reaching $52 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year [5]. - The long-term outlook suggests that geopolitical risks may diminish, allowing market fundamentals to regain dominance, with OPEC+ shifting towards a strategy of increasing production to maintain market share [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, but the price has dropped significantly since October. Recently, with the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the change in the US attitude towards Russia, the crude oil price is expected to continue to rebound at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory of US crude oil has increased more than expected, and the inventory of refined oil has decreased more than expected. The overall oil inventory has increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high [1] - The end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payrolls data, and uncertainties in China - US trade have worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the crude oil export in the Iraqi Kurdistan region has restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main contract 2512 of crude oil futures rose 4.05% to 459.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 445.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 463.7 yuan per ton. The trading volume decreased by 3826 to 43,154 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. EIA has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. IEA has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, and the oil supply surplus has intensified [3] Inventory and Production Data - On October 17, EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending October 10 increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in August was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The US crude oil production for the week ending October 10 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day, reaching a new record high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly supply of US crude oil products decreased by 11.48% month - on - month [5][7]

9月底以来，国内外原油价格持续下行，与价格屡创新高的黄金形成强烈反差。其中，NYMEX WTI原 油期货价格一度跌破57美元／桶，ICE Brent原油期货2601合约也一度跌破60美元／桶。此外，预防性 降息利好美国贵金属和美股，而铜和原油受实体经济影响较大，其价格走势取决于市场实际供应情况、 各国经济状况以及对商品的需求。 从原油供需基本面来看，全球原油增产态势明确。一方面，OPEC为争夺市场份额放弃自愿减产；另一 方面，美国等非OPEC国家的原油产量也在不断增长。此外，地缘政治风险缓和，伊朗和俄罗斯原油出 口有望恢复，这使得全球原油库存持续攀升。而原油需求端表现疲软，显示当前原油价格的支撑力量仅 来自美联储降息所带来的投资需求，不足以扭转原油价格的跌势。 增产引发供应过剩担忧 目前，增产引发的供应过剩担忧是原油市场的核心矛盾。数据显示，10月，由沙特领导的OPEC为重新 夺回市场份额，正在撤销此前实施的减产举措，OPEC原油供应量有望升至3469万桶／日，创下2018年 12月以来的最高纪录。10月初，OPEC宣布进一步增产，即在11月增产13.7万桶／日，增产幅度与10月 相同。OPEC正在逐步放弃2 ...