冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年01月05日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。欧佩克+将于2 月1日举行下一次会议。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存减幅超预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库 存继续增加。美国原油产量略有增加，仍位于历史最高位附近，美国钻机数量继续小幅回升。美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各 方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非常大的进展"，相关讨论已覆盖"接近95%的关键议题"，并形容当前进展已达到"非常接近达 成协议"的阶段，并称美乌安全保障安排"接近95%完成"。不过欧盟最新决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至 2026年7月31日。欧美成品油裂解价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，市场仍担忧原油需求，中东地区出口增加，全 球原油浮库高企，伊拉克恢复了卢 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant market differentiation following the U.S. military action in Venezuela, which included the capture of President Maduro [1] - Investors quickly turned to precious metals for safety, leading to a rebound in gold and silver prices, while the oil market remained relatively calm due to oversupply concerns [2][5] - Gold prices rose above $4,430 per ounce after a previous decline of 4.4%, and silver prices surged nearly 5% to around $76 per ounce [6][8] Group 2 - The geopolitical turmoil triggered immediate reactions in the precious metals market, with investors seeking safe-haven assets [5] - Analysts noted that the fundamental changes in the global oil supply-demand balance have led to a muted response in the oil market despite the geopolitical tensions [14] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oversupply of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026, which diminishes the impact of Venezuela's situation on global oil prices [18] Group 3 - Venezuela's oil production, currently around 1 million barrels per day, accounts for less than 1% of global supply, which limits its significance in the global market [18] - The U.S. administration has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, indicating a long-term interest in revitalizing the country's oil industry [21] - Industry experts express caution regarding the prospects of rebuilding Venezuela's oil fields, citing historical examples where regime changes did not stabilize oil supply quickly [22]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - In January, the supply - demand of styrene is gradually shifting from tight balance to wide balance, with limited cost - side support, and it is expected to show weak fluctuations in the short term. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 6,580 for the daily K - line of EB2602 [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6,739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the trading volume was 269,802 lots, a decrease of 30,737 lots; the long positions of the top 20 holders were 351,194 lots, an increase of 14,043 lots; the open interest of the active contract was 302,675 lots, a decrease of 8,653 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 holders were - 32,741 lots, a decrease of 6,219 lots; the short positions of the top 20 holders were 383,935 lots, an increase of 20,262 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 757 lots; the closing price of the March contract was 6,794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 848 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China intermediate price was 858 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 6,625 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 7,065 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 6,695 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,915 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 746 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 675.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 430 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price of pure benzene was 661.17 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB US Gulf price was 53 US cents/gallon, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam price was 738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar; the market prices in the South, East, and North China pure benzene markets were 5,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and 5,250 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 70.23%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 171,760 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the total inventory at the main ports in East China was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons; the trade inventory at the main ports in East China was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 43.64% (a decrease of 8.92 percentage points), 69.9% (an increase of 0.5 percentage points), 60.4% (an increase of 1.8 percentage points), 36% (a decrease of 2 percentage points), and 80.52% (an increase of 1.14 percentage points) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 26th to January 1st, the styrene factory output was 352,200 tons, a decrease of 0.68% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a decrease of 0.47% month - on - month. The operating rate of downstream EPS decreased by 8.92% to 43.64%, PS increased by 1.8% to 60.4%, ABS increased by 0.5% to 69.9%, UPR decreased by 2% to 36%, and styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.14% to 80.52%. As of December 25th, the styrene factory inventory was 171,800 tons, an increase of 0.47% month - on - month. As of January 5th, the East China port inventory was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% month - on - month; the South China port inventory was 20,600 tons, an increase of 10.16% month - on - month. On January 4th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 139.35 yuan/ton. On December 31st, the integrated profit of styrene was 723.78 yuan/ton [2]

Ø 观点：在全球原油市场维持供应过剩的背景下，2026年油价运行中枢预计将承压。基准情景下，我们预计WTI原油价格可能下探 50美元/桶的关键支撑，对应国内SC原油期货价格或测试380元/桶附近。 Ø 逻辑：供应过剩仍是当前的主要逻辑，这一格局由"供应稳步增长"和"需求弹性不足"共同决定。一方面，在OPEC+增产及非 OPEC+国家产量增加的现实背景下，全球原油产量仍维持稳步增加，两者共同保障了全球产量的稳步增长，但受投资约束与资源 条件限制，整体增速预计将较往年放缓。另外一方面，随着全球经济步入低增速周期，原油需求更多体现为刚性，有限需求增 量难以扭转供应过剩的局面。在此背景下，油价整体将延续偏弱运行的态势，库存周期的将主导油价的阶段性走势，走势大概 率呈现"先抑后扬"的格局。一季度作为传统的消费淡季，将导致上半年全球原油市场面临显著的累库压力，油价预计震荡寻 底，二是下半年随着季节性需求回暖，叠加OPEC+可能根据市场变化调整产量政策，供需矛盾有望边际缓和，从而为油价提供支 撑。 Ø 风险点：地缘政治因素将继续作为2026年油价波动的核心扰动项，但其影响方向可能出现分化。一方面，中东局势存在恶化的 潜在风 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (12.29-12.31) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡运行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶57.33美元，周涨0.70%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶60.80美 元，周涨0.78%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至432.2元/桶，周跌2.17%。受严重供应过剩担忧影响，原油价格势将创下自2020年疫情以来最大年 度跌幅，预计供应过剩状况将在新的一年里主导市场情绪和交易走势。WTI原油交投于58美元，朝着连续第五个月下跌的方向发展，今年迄今已 下跌近20%。短期地缘事件对油价影响较大，美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced volatility last week, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions but ultimately declining due to strong expectations of oversupply in the market [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical issues in regions such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with positive signals from the Ukraine conflict contributing to a price rebound [1] - The recent decline in Iranian oil exports has drawn market attention, with daily exports expected to drop to 1.011 million barrels by December 2025, a decrease of 824,000 barrels (approximately 44.9%) from November 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Iranian Oil Exports - The decline in Iranian oil exports is largely attributed to a limited number of downstream buyers, as Russian oil is being purchased at significant discounts, leading to an increase in floating storage of nearly 50 million barrels [2] - The instability of Iran's domestic situation and external pressures pose challenges to the stability of its oil supply, with potential for further sanctions to exacerbate the decline in exports [2] Group 3: Venezuelan Oil Situation - Following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, there is a focus on the potential for U.S. oil companies to invest billions in repairing Venezuela's damaged oil infrastructure, although the oil embargo remains in effect [2][3] - The current paralysis of Venezuela's oil exports due to political turmoil is expected to lead to a temporary absence of heavy oil supply in the international market, prompting Asian refineries to seek alternatives from Russia and the Middle East [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall outlook for January indicates that oil prices may continue to decline due to significant oversupply pressures, although the potential for geopolitical factors to cause short-term price increases exists [3] - The interplay between geopolitical disturbances and supply surplus pressures will shape the oil market in January, with expectations that any price increases driven by geopolitical factors may lack sustainability [3]

来源：上海证券报 2026年，首个地缘政治"黑天鹅"事件发生，国际原油市场迎来新的变数。 据新华社报道，美军3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其强行 带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天公开宣称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，并宣布美国大型石油企业将进入委 内瑞拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设施并创造收益。 油价后市走向如何？多位专家在接受记者采访时分析研判，短期来看，高风险溢价将推动国际油价上 行；但倘若美国掌控了当地石油产业的控制权，便可能进一步加剧当前国际油市供给过剩的局面，这将 对市场构成长期的利空影响。 供给收缩风险提升 朱光明进一步表示，委内瑞拉原油出口暂停且产量受限后，将对原油价格形成提振。 长期利空 作为全球已探明石油储量世界第一的国家、石油输出国组织（欧佩克）创始成员国，委内瑞拉遭遇美国 军事打击一事牵动着各方神经。 据美国能源信息署（EIA）数据，委内瑞拉拥有约3030亿桶原油储量，占全球总储量的五分之一。不 过，产能并未完全转换为产量。全球风险管理公司（Global Risk Management）首席分析师兼研究主管 拉斯穆森称，尽管委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market experienced significant volatility in December 2025, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and an oversupply of crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude prices declining by 1.93% and 3.72% respectively by the end of the month [5][32]. Group 1: Market Review - As of December 31, WTI crude futures closed at $57.42 per barrel, Brent at $60.85 per barrel, and INE crude at 436.5 yuan per barrel, reflecting monthly declines of 1.93%, 3.72%, and 3.19% respectively [5][32]. - The oil prices initially rose due to geopolitical tensions but fell sharply after news of potential ceasefire agreements between Russia and Ukraine, alongside bearish EIA data [6][33]. - The market saw a rebound after hitting a low of $60.16 per barrel for Brent, but the overall recovery was limited due to persistent oversupply [6][33]. Group 2: Global Supply Dynamics - Global crude oil supply remains significantly oversupplied, with U.S. crude production reaching 13.827 million barrels per day, the highest seasonal level in five years [11][38]. - U.S. crude oil demand decreased by 3.34% month-over-month, while commercial inventories stood at 422.888 million barrels, indicating a slight draw but still at a moderate seasonal level [11][38]. - The low oil prices have not substantially impacted the operational costs of U.S. shale oil production, which are estimated at around $45 per barrel [11][38]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical conflicts have become a major trading anchor, with significant events such as attacks on energy facilities by both Ukraine and Russia influencing market sentiment [23][50]. - The U.S. has intensified its blockade on Venezuela, impacting its oil exports, although the overall effect on global supply remains manageable [24][51]. - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, are also contributing to market volatility and uncertainty [32].

2026 年 1 月 4 日 委内局势紧急升级，原油市场如何交易？ | 黄柳楠 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 赵旭意 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 zhaoxuyi024701@gtjas.com | 报告导读： 撇开委内瑞拉政权变化影响，2025 年底以来美国通过扣押油轮、封锁运输、制裁实体、军事施压四大 手段，直接导致油轮滞港、运输成本上升、买家采购意愿下降，最终引发出口量短期大幅下滑和出口结构 调整。而中国方面，12 月以来委内瑞拉面临的一系列地缘风险事件对直接进口影响冲击较大，但暂时无法 证伪间接渠道的失效，或仅影响短期供应。综合各方面情况看，委内瑞拉短期出口直接下滑规模或在 30- 60 万桶/日。但长期来看，各类油品间接贸易渠道的孕育、轻重油市场的可分化性、地缘局势本身的演绎、 OPEC+其他成员国对产量的填补均可能进一步削弱市场对这一利好的计价程度。因此，仅就对全球原油市 场影响而言，本次的委内瑞拉地缘风险事件或仅缓解阶段性的供应过剩压力，难以扭转 2026 年上半年原 油过剩格局 ...

节前最后一个交易日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，原油期货主力合约开盘报438.5元/桶，盘中 低位震荡运行；截至收盘，原油主力最高触及439.6元，下方探低428.4元，跌幅达1.46%。 东海期货指出，市场在委内瑞拉，俄罗斯与也门的地缘紧张局势和全球供应过剩担忧之间进行权衡。阿 联酋表示将从也门撤军，此前沙特要求阿联酋停止支持也门武装团体。俄乌方面，美国推动的乌克兰和 平计划遭遇新障碍，俄罗斯表示将改变谈判立场，而OPEC本周末的开会预计将维持原定的暂停增产计 划，因为过剩迹象日益明显。短期市场将继续在地缘风险和过剩预期之间拉扯，价格短期持稳，但中长 期压力仍然较大。 国投安信期货分析称，美委局势升级下委内石油出口下滑、俄乌达成和平协议的希望受挫以及围绕也门 的中东地缘紧张局势加剧市场对潜在供应中断的担忧，然而当前原油基本面格局依然由供应过剩主导。 EIA预测全球库存可能每日增加超过200万桶，这一预测已考虑欧佩克+实际产量可能低于目标约130万 桶/日的情形，但仍难改变库存累积逐步增大的整体趋势。地缘冲突导致的溢价倾向于以脉冲式上涨形 式体现，供需宽松的主基调决定了油价中枢下移的格局。 目前来看，原油 ...