Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are a strategic battleground for national digital financial discourse, serving as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto economy, especially in the context of emerging regulations in the EU, the US, and Hong Kong [1][5][10]. Group 1: Stablecoin Mechanism and Application Scenarios - Stablecoins are categorized into three types based on their anchoring mechanisms: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins dominating the market [2][19]. - The stablecoin market exhibits a "one super, one strong, and a hundred flowers blooming" pattern, with USDT and USDC together accounting for 86% of the market share [2][36]. - Stablecoins are utilized in various scenarios including DeFi ecosystems, RWA transactions, value storage, cross-border payments, and retail payments, providing functions such as pricing benchmarks and real-time settlement [2][63]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Systems - Stablecoins pose significant implications for banking systems, affecting currency status, central bank policy tools, and potentially leading to systemic disturbances [3][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory frameworks in the US and Hong Kong mark a turning point for stablecoin development, emphasizing the need for compliance and stability in the financial system [5][10]. - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" introduces a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, focusing on strict entry requirements, robust reserve management, and unconditional redemption [13][14]. Group 4: Comparison of Regulatory Models - The regulatory approaches in Hong Kong, the US, and the EU differ significantly, with Hong Kong emphasizing openness and compatibility, the US reinforcing the dominance of the dollar, and the EU pursuing unity and security [16][18]. - The regulatory frameworks aim to balance financial stability and innovation while protecting investors and maintaining the integrity of financial markets [17][18]. Group 5: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, the stablecoin market exceeds $250 billion, with USDT and USDC leading the market, accounting for 62% and 24% of the total market share, respectively [36][39]. - The market is characterized by a high degree of concentration, with USDT being the largest stablecoin by market cap, followed by USDC, which has gained traction due to its compliance and transparency [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong marks a significant step in solidifying its position as an international financial center and a hub for virtual assets, with a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins set to take effect on August 1 [2][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is experiencing a surge in interest, with the total issuance exceeding $250 billion as of June 4, 2025, dominated by USDT at over $150 billion and USDC at over $60 billion [3]. - The first stablecoin, Tether (USDT), was launched in 2014, pegging 1 USDT to 1 USD, and has since become a foundational tool in cryptocurrency trading and cross-border payments [3]. - The recent IPO of Circle, the issuer of USDC, saw its stock price rise nearly 170% on its first day, reflecting growing market enthusiasm for stablecoins [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - Hong Kong is the first global financial center to establish a dedicated regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, with the "Stablecoin Regulation" passed by the Legislative Council on May 21, 2023 [7][11]. - The regulation includes a licensing system for stablecoin issuers, which will be implemented on August 1, 2023, requiring compliance with core responsibilities such as reserve management and risk management [8][9]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has initiated a "stablecoin issuer sandbox" to allow institutions to test their business models and technology under controlled conditions [9]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The rapid implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" demonstrates Hong Kong's competitive awareness in the digital currency regulatory space, setting a new standard for global fiat-backed stablecoin development [2][11]. - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance market efficiency and liquidity through the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," reinforcing its ambition to become a global digital asset center [11]. - The integration of stablecoins into the financial ecosystem is seen as a pivotal step towards the tokenization of financial assets, with potential implications for the international monetary system [12].

Group 1: Stablecoin Impact - The recent regulatory developments in the US and Hong Kong regarding stablecoins have garnered market attention, highlighting their role in stabilizing prices by pegging to other assets, typically fiat currencies [3] - Stablecoins are expected to enhance cross-border payments by making them faster, cheaper, and more convenient, while also potentially challenging the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency if other countries issue stablecoins not pegged to the dollar [3] - Relevant companies in the stablecoin development space include bank IT service providers, telecom operators, cryptocurrency exchanges, and financial institutions facilitating stablecoin transactions [3] Group 2: Dollar and US Stock Market Relationship - The concept of "de-dollarization" has gained traction, but there are misconceptions about equating a weaker dollar with de-dollarization and a weaker dollar with falling US stocks [8] - Historically, a weaker dollar has often benefited US stocks, as evidenced by the current situation where despite a weak dollar, US stocks are nearing new highs [8] - The dollar is expected to strengthen slightly in Q4, with the potential for US stocks to outperform again, despite the prevailing narrative around de-dollarization facing challenges [8] Group 3: Internet Industry Outlook - The internet industry has entered a new investment cycle after a period of cost-cutting, with AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail emerging as key focus areas [18] - Investors are advised to consider the uncertainties of future investments, balancing short-term financial performance with long-term growth potential [18] - The need for a buffer against external environmental fluctuations is emphasized, as innovation and risk-taking are inherent to the internet sector [18]

Core Viewpoint - The stability of stablecoins is being questioned by major financial institutions, including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the European Central Bank, due to concerns over their ability to serve as a pillar of the monetary system and their potential use in financial crimes [1][3][6]. Regulatory Concerns - BIS highlights that stablecoins have not met the necessary criteria of singularity, elasticity, and integrity to be considered a foundational element of the monetary system [3][4]. - The anonymity of stablecoins raises concerns about their use in money laundering and terrorist financing, as they lack the "Know Your Customer" (KYC) standards present in traditional finance [4][5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) emphasizes the need for cautious regulation and has expressed a desire to temper public enthusiasm for stablecoins [6][8]. Market Reaction - Following regulatory warnings, stablecoin-related stocks have experienced significant declines, with Circle's stock price dropping from a peak of $299 to $199, reflecting a loss of over 10% in a single day [1][10]. - The market has shifted from a state of exuberance to one of caution, with investors becoming anxious and hesitant to engage [10][11]. Future Outlook - The future role of stablecoins remains uncertain, with potential implications for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and traditional financial systems [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the rapid growth of stablecoins may lead to a reconsideration of the necessity for CBDCs in some countries, as stablecoins closely resemble them but are privately issued [11]. - The relationship between stablecoins and traditional financial markets is evolving, with increased risk correlation noted, particularly as traditional financial institutions begin to allocate investments in stablecoins [11][12].

加拿大银行监管机构：已准备好监管稳定币；监管框架正在制定中。 ...

导语 ：Tether的稳定币已经成为新兴市场中进行国际支付的热门工具。研究人员还表示，它们 也被用于逃避制裁等非法活动。 美国国会即将通过一项将稳定币纳入金融主流的立法，这项法律引发了来自初创公司、银行，甚至 沃尔玛等之前对加密货币保持谨慎态度的零售商的广泛关注。 但这项名为"天才法案"的立法对Tether——稳定币领域的龙头企业提出了严厉警告：要么改进，要 么被迫退出美国市场。 参议院的立法为公司提供了三年的宽限期，以符合新要求。而在众议院的配套法案中，发行者只有 18个月的合规期。在两项法案通过对接之前，特朗普总统（支持"天才法案"）才可能签署其成为法 律。 这项立法上周刚刚通过了参议院，旨在加强对稳定币的监管。稳定币是与法定货币挂钩的数字代 币，通常与1美元等值。它们作为传统货币与加密世界之间的桥梁，使得人们可以使用比特币背后 的技术进行支付或跨境汇款，但没有比特币那样的剧烈波动性。 "天才法案"要求稳定币发行者必须通过现金、短期国债等安全资产来支撑其代币的价值。对于较大 的发行商，还将要求他们发布年度审计的财务报表。这对Tether来说无疑是坏消息，因为Tether在稳 定币市场占据了大约三分之二的份 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating [3] 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly, with downstream consumption gradually weakening. The supply growth is accelerating due to increased production by smelters and the release of new and restarted capacities. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. The domestic social inventory is stable, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - selling pressure is weakening with reduced positions. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,710 dollars/ton, up 29.5 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 264,399 lots, up 4,519 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,294 lots, up 3,065 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,473 tons, down 696 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory is 42,864 tons, down 2,602 tons; the LME inventory is 122,875 tons, down 575 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 17.39 dollars/ton, up 2.78 dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, an improvement of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an improvement of 10,400 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 58,400 tons, down 2,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.73%, up 12.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.69%, up 10.48 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.1%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.23%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and decisions should be based on actual data. The US economy outperforms others, so interest rates may be higher, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [3] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus on effective regulation is needed [3] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and build a new real - estate development model [3]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 铝类产业日报 2025/6/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,445.00 | +90.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,948.00 | +29.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 85.00 | +15.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 52.00 | -9.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 260,549.00 | +6534.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 290,722.00 | +6178.00↑ | ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/6/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,890.00 | +80.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,795.50 | +83.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 160.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 191,140.00 | +53503.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 6,571.00 | +1689.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 93,475.00 | -1200.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 100,814.00 | -1129.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 37,225.00 | -2925.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 23,696.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,9 ...

Two Prime加密对冲基金首席执行官Alexander Blume也指出，Circle近期的估值显著偏高，"市场正在进 行理性修正"。他进一步表示，Coinbase股价的强势也可能反映出市场对Circle"价值过度定价"的反思。 Circle的周一股价飙升，部分归因于与金融科技公司Fiserv宣布合作，将共同开发稳定币产品；再加上美 国参议院上周通过一项稳定币监管法案，令市场对USDC等合规化稳定币的前景产生期待。 这项法案目前已送交众议院投票，若最终通过，有望推动美元挂钩稳定币的大规模应用。然而，尽管前 景利好，投资人仍选择在短期内兑现获利离场，导致股价迅速回调。 Circle发行的USDC是当前主流稳定币之一，而Coinbase作为其主要分销合作伙伴，从USDC运营中获得 了可观收益。 在上市不到三周后，稳定币发行商Circle(CRCL.US)的股价本周出现大幅回调，投资人热情迅速降温。 智通财经APP获悉，周三收盘，Circle股价大跌10.79%，报198.62美元，连续两日累计下跌24.6%。与此 同时，Coinbase(COIN.US)则走势强劲，连续两日上涨15.5%，周三收盘报355.3 ...