Group 1 - Recent positive signals in US-China relations, including the suspension of sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry and public consultations on delaying tariffs, have boosted investor risk appetite [1] - The Dow Jones futures rose approximately 0.20%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.25% and 0.33% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - October's employment data showed a significant increase in layoffs, with over 153,000 job cuts reported, marking the largest monthly increase in over 20 years, which has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 67% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 60% a week prior, supporting stock market risk appetite and maintaining high gold prices [1] - Despite the recovery in market sentiment, safe-haven funds remain resilient due to ongoing government shutdown risks, with independent estimates suggesting a potential 1% to 2% reduction in Q4 GDP if the shutdown continues [1] - The US Supreme Court's hearings on presidential tariff powers have added policy uncertainty, sustaining market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3 - Gold prices have returned above $4,000 but remain below overnight highs, with short-term volatility driven by dollar buying and interest rate cut expectations [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices break through the $4,020–$4,030 resistance range, they may further test $4,045–$4,050 and potentially $4,100; conversely, a drop below $3,975–$3,965 could see prices retreat to around $3,929 [2] - The market is characterized by a coexistence of policy expectations and safe-haven demand, with gold stability above $4,000 dependent on upcoming data confirming rate cut prospects and dollar performance [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The report expects precious metals to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. In terms of silver, there are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the negative impact of the China - US talks has materialized, while risks such as a US government shutdown and geopolitical changes still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, the US government shutdown reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history, and the US Supreme Court questioned the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs. Regarding the monetary attribute, private reports show a decrease in US employment positions in October and a surge in layoffs to a 22 - year high for the same period. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and salary growth remains stagnant. The Fed's interest rate cut path has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. The market expects a 70% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - **Data**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3984.80 per ounce, down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down $53.50 (-1.32%) from the previous week. London gold is $3986.50 per ounce, up $18.30 (0.46%) from the previous day and down $7.65 (-0.19%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE gold主力 is 921.26 yuan per gram, up 3.46 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and down 0.66 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 917.64 yuan per gram, up 0.13 yuan (0.01%) from the previous day and down 3.38 yuan (-0.37%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. There are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [6] - **Data**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $47.85 per ounce, down $0.02 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.88 (-1.82%) from the previous week. London silver is $48.69 per ounce, up $1.08 (2.26%) from the previous day and up $0.51 (1.05%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE silver主力 is 11484 yuan per kilogram, up 57 yuan (0.50%) from the previous day and up 43 yuan (0.38%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11480 yuan per kilogram, up 59 yuan (0.52%) from the previous day and up 70 yuan (0.61%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [7] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4%, the discount rate is 4%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.9%, and the Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $167.70 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [9] - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (1.70%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 99.71, down 0.45 (-0.45%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week. There are also data on US Treasury spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, and IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios [9][11][13]

风险提示：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。市场波动加剧，投资需谨慎。 周五亚洲至欧洲交易时段，黄金（XAU/USD）重新企稳于4000美元上方，但未能突破隔夜高点。美元 反弹与降息预期的分化导致市场短线波动加剧。从技术面来看，若金价突破4020–4030美元阻力区，有 望进一步上探4045–4050美元并测试4100美元关口；若跌破3975–3965美元支撑区，则可能回落至3929美 元附近。整体而言，金价仍处于区间震荡阶段，静待新的方向信号。 当前市场仍处于政策预期与避险情绪交织的格局。若后续数据验证劳动力市场疲软，或美联储官员释放 政策转向信号，黄金有望迎来新的上涨契机；反之，若美元再度走强，金价或面临短线压力。交易者可 重点关注密歇根大学消费者信心指数的最新公布，该数据可能成为影响黄金短期走势的关键因素。 在中美关系改善、企业裁员上升及美国政府停摆等因素共同作用下，市场呈现"风险回升与避险并存"的 局面。黄金在降息预期和避险需求的双重支撑下维持在4000美元上方震荡。后续走势仍取决于宏观数据 与美元表现，短期内市场预计将继续以事件驱动为主。 近期中美关系释放出积极信号。美国方面暂停对中国造船业的制裁， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tightening liquidity in the US repurchase market, highlighting the significant widening of the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Rate (ONRRP) to 47 basis points, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020, and the surge in the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to $50 billion, marking a new high since its establishment in 2021 [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Liquidity Tightening - The liquidity tightening is attributed to a combination of the US government shutdown and month-end factors, with the usage of overnight reverse repos declining sharply after the Federal Reserve halted interest rate hikes and accelerated balance sheet reduction [3]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has risen to $1 trillion, significantly above the acceptable level of $850 billion, further draining liquidity from the repo market [3]. - The combination of reduced liquidity in the repo market and banks being more cautious in external financing due to regulatory requirements at month-end has led to the rapid widening of the SOFR and ONRRP spread [3]. Group 2: Current Market Impact - Despite the tightening liquidity in the repo market, there has not been a substantial impact on other financial markets, as the daily limit for the SRF is $500 billion, and the Federal Reserve can quickly respond to liquidity needs [4]. - Recent data shows that the SOFR and ONRRP spread has narrowed to 25 basis points, indicating a decrease in the usage of the SRF [4]. - The performance of risk assets has been more reflective of their inherent vulnerabilities, with notable declines in global risk asset prices, but short-term fluctuations in the money market are not expected to have a direct and lasting impact on stock prices [4].

11月5日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第36天，打破2018年底至2019年初"停摆"35天的纪录，成为美国历史上持续时间最长的政府"停摆"。 11月5日，美国首都华盛顿的国会大厦前亮起红色的交通信号灯。 新华社记者 胡友松 摄 11月5日，在美国首都华盛顿拍摄的国会大厦倒影。 新华社记者 胡友松 摄 美国国会预算办公室日前表示，根据联邦政府"停摆"持续时间的长短，预计今年四季度美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）的年增长率将下降一至 两个百分点。英国广播公司估计，"停摆"每持续一周将给美国GDP造成约150亿美元的损失。 为"停摆"买单的人是美国民众。"停摆"对食品救济、医保福利、民航交通等多个民生领域造成巨大冲击。参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默说，在 这场"停摆"之争中，"孩子、老人、残疾人、工薪阶层的父母都被用作政治棋子"，"饥饿被用作威胁手段"。 11月5日，在美国首都华盛顿，联邦雇员排队领取免费食品。 新华社记者 胡友松 摄 11月5日清晨，在美国波特兰的深秋寒意中，无家可归者蜷缩在街边角落里。 新华社记者 吴晓凌 摄 11月5日清晨，在美国波特兰的深秋寒意中，无家可归者排队等待领取救助物品。 新华社记者 吴晓 ...

关税大战迎来终极审判，懂王特朗普引以为傲的关税政策或面临终结。 美国高院的裁决，将决定特朗普关税的命运，如果法院作出对特朗普不利的裁决，可能会使其标志性的关税政策被推翻，并可能引发超千亿美元的关税退 款。 特朗普关税，前途未卜？ 当地时间周三，美国最高法院内气氛凝重，事关全球经贸前景的"特朗普关税案"正式开庭审理。 在超过两个半小时的庭审中，大法官们轮番发问，多数大法官对特朗普政府的关税措施感到疑虑，并对关税合法性提出质疑。 其中，美国高院首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨在庭审中表示，这些关税是对美国人征税，而征税历来是国会的核心权力。他还表示，联邦机构在采取具有深远经 济或政治影响的行动时，需要国会的明确授权。 大法官戈萨奇和巴雷特亦表示质疑，如果美国高院裁定《国际紧急经济权力法》赋予总统征收广泛关税的权力，那美国国会是否还能通过投票撤回关税。 值得注意的是，此前美国参议院以51票赞同、47票反对的结果通过决议，终止美国总统特朗普在全球范围内实施的全面关税政策。 特朗普此前不断强调，如果美国没有关税，就没有国家安全，而世界其他国家会占美国的便宜。然而，这场被特朗普称为"有史以来最重要的案件"，正朝着 不利于他的方向发 ...

11月6日，天然橡胶期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报15080.00元/吨，小幅上涨1.75%。 天然橡胶生产国协会（ANRPC）天胶月报显示，2025年9月份，天然橡胶价格波动并承压，因产量改善 且需求维持低迷。全球2025年天然橡胶产量预计较2024年温和增加1.3%。 机构观点 国都期货：基本面来看，当前阶段全球仍处于高产期，橡胶供给较多，且天气较前期扰动减少，供给较 为顺畅。我国市场来看，天然橡胶供给充分，8月份数据显示，我国天胶供给较历史同比偏多，1-8月我 国供应同比增长4.4%。下游需求来看，国内轮胎企业开机率维持较高水平，但轮胎企业库存较多，限 制其补库热情。保税区继续累库，且进口持续处于偏高水平。9月，轮胎产量延续同比增长，轮胎出口 延续小幅正增长，汽车消费暂稳，重卡消费连续6个月同比大幅增长，增速呈逐月扩大趋势。政策上来 看，中美贸易关系改善，韩国釜山新一轮谈判取消10%芬太尼关税，继续推迟34%关税期限1年，美国 政府停摆进入第36天，商品市场承压。展望后市，12月份开始，我国割胶进度将逐步放缓，供给压力料 将减轻，消费不温不火，政策仍存托底作用，胶价下行空间或将有限。 瑞达期货 ...

新华财经北京11月6日电（崔凯）美国联邦政府"停摆"于当地时间11月5日零时进入第36天，打破2018– 2019年35天的历史纪录，成为美国建国以来持续时间最长的一次政府关门事件。此次停摆源于民主、共 和两党在2026财年临时拨款法案上的严重分歧，核心争议集中于《平价医疗法案》的政府补贴问题。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）评估，若停摆持续，第四季度美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）年增长 率或将下降1至2个百分点。英国广播公司（BBC）援引经济专家估算，停摆每持续一周，将给美国经济 造成约150亿美元的直接损失；彭博社则指出，损失区间可能高达100亿至300亿美元。 截至目前，参议院已第14次未能通过临时拨款法案。两党均未展现出妥协意愿。共和党方面坚持削减福 利开支，民主党则拒绝放弃医保补贴条款。中国人民大学国际关系学院教授刁大明分析称， ...

今日周三(11月5日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11234一线上方，今日开盘于11230元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11248元/千克，下跌0.98%，最高触及11283元/千克，最低下探11103元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 整体上，55%的受访者认为关税政策使家庭财务状况恶化。超过六成受访者认为关税推高美国通胀，并 损害本国及被征税国家的经济。 另外美国国会参议院再次未能推进众议院已通过的、共和党提出的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案。这意味 着10月1日开始的本轮联邦政府"停摆"即将打破2018年年底至2019年年初"停摆"35天的历史纪录，成为 美国历史上持续时间最长的政府"停摆"。 当天这次表决再次未能达到通过所需的60票"门槛"，最终投票结果为54票赞成、44票反对。3名民主党 参议员投票支持，1名共和党参议员投票反对。这也是参议院第14次未能推动政府"停摆"结束。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周二下跌至11145附近，收盘在11200附近，沪银也进入了11000到11600的区间震荡范围，在没有突 破这个区间内，均可以做有效的高空低多交 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days set in late 2018 to early 2019, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1][26] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the prolonged shutdown will lead to a decrease in the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter of this year [3] - The BBC estimates that each week of the shutdown costs the U.S. economy approximately $15 billion [3] Group 2 - The shutdown has significantly impacted various sectors, including food assistance, healthcare benefits, and air travel, affecting the livelihoods of many Americans [5] - Over 3.2 million travelers have experienced flight delays or cancellations since the shutdown began, with thousands of flights delayed daily [9] - The U.S. Transportation Secretary has warned that if the shutdown continues, parts of the airspace may need to be closed [9] Group 3 - The shutdown has raised concerns about the potential delay in military pay for U.S. troops if it persists into mid-November [14] - The ongoing political standoff has turned vulnerable populations, such as children, the elderly, and low-income families, into political pawns, according to Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer [5]