Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October, and below the forecast of 53.2 [1][2] - Concerns about the prolonged government shutdown are affecting households across different political affiliations, leading to fears about its negative impact on the economy [1] - Millions of low-income families have seen welfare benefits, including food stamps, cut due to the government shutdown, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers are either furloughed or working without pay [1] Labor Market Concerns - The proportion of American households expecting an increase in unemployment over the next year rose from 52% in October to 62%, the highest level since 1980 [2] - A survey by the New York Federal Reserve indicated that respondents expect unemployment to rise in the coming year and believe it will be difficult to find a job if they become unemployed [2]

11月10日，美国联邦政府停摆已进入第41天，刷新了"史上最长停摆"的记录。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月9日晚，美国总统特朗普在返回白宫时对媒体表示，"看起来我们离结 束'停摆'已经很近了。" 同日，据新华社报道，美国国会参议院已就结束联邦政府"停摆"达成一致。 两党似乎都不愿再背负政府停摆带来的沉重经济账单，而寻求互让一步做出妥协。据央视新闻消息，美 国财政部长贝森特在11月9日警告称，目前美国的货物运输速度放缓，由于政府持续停摆，该部门最终 可能会出现短缺问题，无论是供应链环节还是节假日期间。 美国国会预算办公室预计，若联邦政府停摆再持续一周，美国经济损失将达到110亿美元。停摆开始 后，通胀、就业等关键经济数据也暂停了发布，资本市场和美联储官员也进入了缺乏数据指引的"盲 飞"状态。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 赖镇桃 随着停摆即将落幕的消息发出，资本市场进入一片狂欢，美股期货、加密货币、黄金价格全线走高。 政府重启曙光初现 回顾历史，美国政府出现停摆并不罕见。自1980年以来，美国已经发生了14次联邦政府关门。美国财政 年度通常从每年10月1日开始至次年9月30日结束。如果财政年度开始前国会没能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened due to positive employment data for October, with the economy adding 66,600 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping from 7.1% to 6.9%, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Employment Data - Canada added 66,600 jobs in October, indicating a significant improvement in the labor market [1] - The unemployment rate decreased from 7.1% to 6.9%, marking the lowest level since July 2021 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The positive employment data led to expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may have limited room for interest rate hikes [1] - The USD/CAD pair is expected to experience fluctuations, with a weaker dollar supported by the strong CAD [1] Group 3: Currency Performance - The CAD showed strength against most major currencies, particularly against the Japanese yen, during the Asian trading session [1] - The USD remained stable as the U.S. government shutdown appeared to be nearing an end, improving market sentiment regarding U.S. fiscal and consumer outlook [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD daily chart indicates short-term fluctuations around 1.4030, with support near 1.4000 and resistance at 1.4060 [1] - The overall trend suggests a weaker USD and a strong CAD in the short term [1]

欧市盘中，国际黄金强势攀升至4050美元上方，受疲软美国经济数据推动，市场对美联储降息的押注持 续升温，成为金价上涨的核心动力。IEXS盈十证券（IEXS外汇）分析师指出，黄金在3900美元区间确 立强支撑后，技术面呈现明确看涨信号，但需警惕潜在风险事件对行情的扰动，投资者可通过平台专业 工具精准把握趋势。 基本面来看，美国经济数据表现疲软，直接强化了市场对美联储明年降息的预期。在通胀压力逐步缓 解、经济复苏动能减弱的背景下，贵金属作为无息资产的吸引力显著提升。不过，IEXS盈十证券外汇 研究团队提醒，若美国政府停摆局面结束，市场避险需求可能边际下降，或将对金价形成短期压制，这 一潜在风险需通过平台实时资讯模块持续追踪。 技术面层面，IEXS盈十证券交易系统显示，黄金RSI指标位于中线以上，短期上行势头强劲。在成功突 破4050美元关键关口后，上方首要阻力指向布林带中轨4081美元附近，若能有效突破，后续有望向4129 美元及4147美元高位发起冲击。支撑端来看，4025美元、4000美元整数关口构成核心防御，一旦失守， 金价可能回调至3964-3987美元区间。值得注意的是，黄金自3900美元确立支撑后，已 ...

格隆汇11月10日｜道明证券亚太利率高级策略师Prashant Newnaha表示，我们预计下一步将是美国众议 院于当地时间周三(就临时拨款法案)进行表决，美国政府有望在本周五重新开放。美国停摆无疑已对经 济造成负面影响，但市场很可能预期经济在停摆结束后会迅速反弹。除了短期利好情绪外，美国停摆结 束带来的直接市场影响在下周初之后应会趋于有限。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the GBP/USD exchange rate is influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar due to the potential resolution of the US government shutdown and concerns regarding the UK central bank's future interest rate decisions [1][2][4] Group 2 - The US dollar has strengthened as a result of bipartisan support for a budget agreement that would restore operations for some federal agencies and pay federal employees, alleviating market concerns about economic and financial uncertainty [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a probability close to 66%, driven by rising layoff numbers in US companies, which has led to increased investor expectations for a rate cut [1] - The Bank of England has maintained its interest rate at 4.0%, with future rate cuts dependent on inflation trends, and market expectations suggest a potential rate cut before Christmas [2] - The technical analysis shows that the GBP/USD is currently around 1.3150, with short-term support at 1.3120 and resistance at 1.3200, indicating a weak short-term trend but potential for rebound based on US economic data and Bank of England signals [2]

格隆汇11月10日｜受美国政府长期停摆局面可能即将终结的乐观情绪推动，全球市场普遍走强。台湾加 权指数周一收涨近0.8%；印尼股市创下历史新高，涨幅达1%；韩国股市上涨逾3%，距历史高点仅一步 之遥，几乎收复上周全部失地，并势创4月初以来最强单日表现。MSCI新兴亚洲股市指数和除日本外泛 亚洲股市指数均涨逾1%。另一项全球新兴市场股市指数上涨超1%，触及两周高点。IG Australia市场分 析师托尼·西卡莫尔表示："虽然美国政府重启恢复了关键服务并缓解了经济不确定性，但退税计划仍取 决于国会批准和充足的关税收入，其时机和可行性仍存疑问。" ...

经济观察网据智通财经，当地时间11月9日，美国会参议院表决通过结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案， 朝重启政府迈出第一步。此时，美国联邦政府这场史上最长的停摆已超过40天。 ...

持续停摆40天后，美国国会终于迈出了打破僵局的关键一步。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月9日，美国国会参议院通过一项旨在结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案。该法案将为政府提供资金直至2026年1 月30日。美东时间11月9日是本次美国政府自10月1日"停摆"以来的第40天。 此次长达40天停摆的核心症结在于即将在年底到期的ACA健康保险补贴。民主党人坚持将延长补贴作为恢复政府资金的先决条件，而共和党 则主张先重开政府再讨论此事。 据报道，知情人士透露，最新的突破来自一项妥协。在民主党参议员Maggie Hassan、Jeanne Shaheen以及独立参议员Angus King的斡旋下， 共和党领导层同意在12月就延长ACA补贴举行一次单独投票。正是这一承诺，换取了足够多的民主党人支持推进当前的临时拨款法案。 然而，这一妥协并未获得所有民主党人的支持。参议院少数党领袖舒默投了反对票，显示出民主党内部的分歧。 根据已披露的细节，该临时拨款法案除了提供资金外，还包含多项重要条款。法案将确保所有联邦雇员，包括军人、边境巡逻人员和空中交 通管制员，都能领到拖欠的工资。同时，法案禁止联邦机构在2026年1月30日前解雇员工 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the important events and data releases in the coming week that may impact the futures market, including domestic and international economic data, policy changes, and industry reports [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On November 10th at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will release October financial statistics and social financing scale data [2][3]. - On November 13th at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce October CPI, with a possible delay if the US government remains shut down [2][9]. - On November 14th at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the October national economic operation [2][13]. This Week's Hotspot Preview - **November 10th**: Anticipated October social financing scale increment is 1.65 trillion yuan, new RMB loans are 470 billion yuan, and M2 balance is expected to grow 8.0% year - on - year. Lower - than - previous values may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures. The agricultural department will release the October agricultural products supply - demand report [3][4]. - **November 12th**: OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report between 18:00 - 21:00 [5]. - **November 13th**: EIA will release its monthly short - term energy outlook report at 01:00, IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report at 17:00, and the US will announce October CPI at 21:30 [7][8][9]. - **November 14th**: EIA will announce the US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 7th at 01:00. The National Bureau of Statistics will release November's first - ten - day important production materials prices and the October 70 - city residential sales price report at 9:30, and the October national economic operation press conference will be held at 10:00, along with the release of October major industrial product output. Lower - than - previous values in consumption, industrial added value, and investment may suppress stock index and commodity futures but benefit treasury bond futures [10][11][13]. - **November 15th**: USDA will release its monthly supply - demand report at 01:00, and the National Energy Administration will release the October energy production report at 10:00 [15][16].