Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting that spot gold briefly fell below the $4100 per ounce mark after three consecutive days of gains, reaching a high for the month [2]. Price Movements - As of the report, London gold was priced at $4103.91 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.55%, while COMEX gold was at $4111.7 per ounce, down by 0.11% [2][4]. - The highest price for London gold was recorded at $4145.55, while the lowest was $4098.41 [3]. Market Sentiment - Analysts noted a decrease in safe-haven demand as optimism grew regarding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, prompting some investors to take profits [4][5]. - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to be voted on by the House, potentially ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [5]. Future Outlook - FXStreet's chief analyst indicated that while gold has lost upward momentum, the risk for gold prices remains skewed to the upside [6]. - Market liquidity expectations have improved, and with weak ADP employment data, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, which may support gold prices [6]. - Despite the long-term bullish logic for gold prices, there is currently a lack of clear upward drivers, leading to expectations of range-bound trading for the week [6].

PTA 日报 行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 日期 2025 年 11 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌 | 总量 | 增减 | | TA2601 | 4648 | -24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility while waiting for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%, and with the restart of central bank Treasury bond trading and a loose monetary policy orientation, the top of interest rates and the bottom of Treasury bond futures are more solid [3]. - The buying power of gold and silver has increased, and their price centers are expected to continue to rise [3]. - Various commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity, such as buying on dips, holding long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a re - pricing adjustment after the release of the third - quarter reports, with narrow - range callbacks and rebounds in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bullish put - option spread can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The buying power of gold and silver has increased. Gold resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and it can be bought on dips below $4100 (936 yuan). Silver may rise to $52 (12000 yuan), and long - call options can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract is in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and an arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1170 - 1290, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1780, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and corresponding investment suggestions, such as holding long - positions for tin, and taking a wait - and - see or other strategies for others [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 58000 due to decreased demand and falling silicon wafer prices [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price is in a moderate - amplitude shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high [3]. Energy and Chemical - **PX, PTA, etc.**: Each chemical product has its own price range and investment strategies, such as taking a wait - and - see attitude, reducing long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Hogs, etc.**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions, such as holding a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage for hogs and paying attention to support or pressure levels for others [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market situation is complex, with different commodities showing different trends and risks [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight prices rose slightly, with London gold at $4,125.67/oz. ADP data showed a decline in US private - sector jobs, and there were various inventory changes. Suggest buying at the lower support [2]. - **Silver**: Suggest reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and weak ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply was tight, and short - term demand was weak. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price decreased by 0.30%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased. In the traditional consumption off - season, prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to overseas supply concerns [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. Supply was stable, and demand was high. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - **Zinc**: The main contract price decreased by 0.11%. Supply was tight domestically but increased overseas. Consumption was in the off - season. Suggest selling short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The main contract price decreased by 0.06%. Supply was stable, and demand improved slightly. Suggest interval operation [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 1.18%. Supply was supported by polysilicon, and demand was stable. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and consider buying at low prices [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price decreased by 0.8%. Supply increased slightly, and demand increased significantly. It is expected to go into de - stocking in November. Suggest buying at low prices cautiously and consider selling put options [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 3.33%. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. The November storage platform progress is uncertain. Suggest waiting and seeing [5]. - **Tin**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price increased by 2 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and demand improved marginally. Supply decreased significantly. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 2,990 - 3,040 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 740 - 770 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Supply was stable, and demand improved. The global inventory is expected to remain high. US soybeans are strong, and domestic ones are relatively strong. Short - term focus on the USDA report, and medium - term depends on tariff policies and production [7]. - **Corn**: Futures prices continued to rise. Inventory was low, and demand was strong. New production is expected to increase, and costs will decrease. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Suggest waiting and seeing [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price decreased by 0.04%. Globally, supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestically, the market rebounded due to news. Suggest shorting in the futures market and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic prices oscillated downwards. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with an interval strategy of 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market rebounded slightly. Supply increased, and demand increased. Near - term inventory is accumulating, and long - term production is expected to decrease seasonally. Suggest a reverse spread strategy and focus on production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After Double Eleven, prices are expected to oscillate in an interval [8]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Apples**: The main contract price increased by 0.76%. Supply was affected by quality and timing, and demand was optimistic. Suggest waiting and seeing [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was large. PX was in balance, and PTA was slightly de - stocking. Suggest taking profit on long positions and shorting processing fees in the long term [10]. - **Rubber**: The main contract price increased by 0.33%. Raw material prices were stable, and inventory increased. Suggest an oscillating operation [10]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [10]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a medium - low level. Demand entered the off - season. Suggest shorting at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose. Supply faced risks from Russian oil and OPEC+ production, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short at high prices if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day [11]. - **Styrene**: Prices fell slightly. Supply and demand contradictions were large. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [11].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary budget bill to end the federal government shutdown that has lasted over 40 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1][3] - The shutdown has caused significant disruptions across various sectors, particularly affecting low-income families and federal employees [4][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - Millions of low-income families have had their food assistance benefits cut, and over 670,000 federal workers have been furloughed, with approximately 730,000 forced to work without pay [4] - The aviation industry has been severely impacted due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, leading to widespread flight cancellations and delays, which in turn affects commercial and tourism sectors [5] - The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the prolonged shutdown could reduce the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points by Q4 2025 [5] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's monthly survey indicates that the U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to 50.3, the lowest level since June 2022, with 62% of respondents reducing discretionary spending due to the shutdown [6] Group 3: Political Stalemate - The shutdown stems from a political deadlock between the two parties over subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act, with Democrats advocating for an extension and Republicans opposing it [7] - Attempts by moderate lawmakers to seek compromise solutions have been hindered by a lack of trust, making any short-term agreements uncertain [7] - Historical context shows that since 1976, the U.S. has experienced 20 funding gaps leading to 10 formal shutdowns, with the nature and frequency of these events evolving over time [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has slightly risen to around 99.55 during the Asian trading session, primarily driven by the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks [2] - Market sentiment has improved as investors anticipate the passage of government funding legislation, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a mild recovery in the dollar against major currencies [2] - The fluctuations in the dollar index are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal policy developments, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown weakness, putting pressure on growth momentum, with U.S. consumer confidence dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November [3] - The labor market is also showing signs of cooling, with private sector employment decreasing by an average of approximately 11,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, indicating declining confidence in hiring [3] - Market focus is on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may provide signals regarding future interest rate directions, influencing the dollar's short-term volatility [3] Group 3 - Some forex strategists suggest that the easing of government shutdown risks is more of a short-term sentiment driver, while the medium-term outlook for the dollar will depend on actual economic data performance [4] - Key indicators such as inflation pressure, employment changes, and manufacturing activity will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy [4] - International factors, including the relatively loose monetary policies in the Eurozone and Japan, provide some support for the dollar, but a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is currently experiencing volatility and may continue to consolidate due to a lack of strong driving forces, with gold prices facing resistance at $4150 per ounce [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotou Futures indicates that the recent ADP report shows a significant decline in U.S. employment, which has raised expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - Everbright Futures notes that the gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 80.7, and the weak employment data has bolstered the Fed's rate cut expectations, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [2]. - Zhongliang Futures states that gold has broken previous highs and is in a phase of seeking subsequent peaks, with expectations that gold prices could reach $4500 to $4800 per ounce by Q1 2026 [3]. Group 2: Future Projections - Commerzbank analysts predict that the reopening of the U.S. government will lead to the release of economic data indicating a slowdown, which may prompt the Fed to implement more aggressive rate cuts, supporting gold prices until 2026 [3]. - FXStreet highlights that the weak employment data has reignited speculation about further Fed policy easing, providing support for gold prices, although the reopening of the government may exert pressure on gold [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand in the Singapore market has been stable, but recent incremental supply from the Middle East has led to an oversupply, putting pressure on the downstream premium. The market is currently in a state where supply - side geopolitical risks and neutral demand co - exist. The expected end of the US government shutdown has boosted market risk appetite, and the increasing concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil to some extent. FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2690 - 2730 range, and LU2601 in the 3300 - 3340 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is stable, but supply from the Middle East has made the market oversupplied; the basis shows that the spot is nearly flat to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 140,000 barrels to 21.069 million barrels in the week of November 5; the price is near the 20 - day line which is flat; high - sulfur main positions are short - increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long - increasing. The expected end of the US government shutdown and concerns about Russian energy exports will support fuel oil. FU2601: 2690 - 2730, LU2601: 3300 - 3340 [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2675, down 8 or 0.30% from the previous value; the LU main contract is 3264, down 4 or 0.12%. The FU basis is - 10, up 9 or 47.35%, and the LU basis is 18, down 17 or 48.63% [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 469.00, down 1.00 or 0.21%; Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 479.00, up 1.00 or 0.21%. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 361.65, down 1.91 or 0.53%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 448.52, down 4.98 or 1.10%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 331.38, down 1.53 or 0.46%; Singapore diesel is 694.91, down 9.57 or 1.36% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Focus - **Positive Factors**: Russia has extended fuel export restrictions, and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and sanctions against Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3][8]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 140,000 barrels in the week of November 5 to 21.069 million barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish rebound, with a target of reaching around $4250, supported by a lack of significant bearish factors in the fundamentals [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The market anticipates the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which will lead to the resumption of economic data releases, expected to show deterioration, thereby supporting gold prices [3][6]. - The ADP report predicts a weekly reduction of 11,250 jobs in the U.S. private sector, while Goldman Sachs estimates a decrease of about 50,000 non-farm jobs in October, the largest drop since 2020, potentially creating conditions for a Fed rate cut next month [3][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price opened at $4115.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $4148.65 before retreating to a low of $4097.25, ultimately closing at $4126.73, with a daily fluctuation of $51.4 [1][10]. - The weekly chart indicates that gold has not broken below the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential rebound and a return to the 5-week moving average [8]. Future Outlook - The market expects a 64% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, bolstered by recent comments from Fed officials regarding the labor market and inflation [6]. - Institutions predict that gold demand in the coming years may reach its strongest level since 2011, providing fundamental support for gold prices [6]. Resistance and Support Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4125 or $4110, while resistance levels are at $4185 or $4230 [11].

"美联储的降息节奏仍存在不确定性。"赵复初分析道，根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储12月降 息25个基点的概率为64.1%，远低于此前的90%。短期内美国就业下行和通胀风险依然存在，且经济下 行压力不大，降低了12月继续降息的急迫性。美国ISM制造业PMI连续8个月处于萎缩区间，需求与就 业持续走弱，但服务业景气度尚可；ADP就业数据超预期反弹，一年期通胀预期持续反弹，且持续高于 美联储目标水平，这些因素都压制了降息空间。 "另外，尽管美国政府'停摆'即将结束，但通胀和就业数据需要较长时间才能正常公布，这导致美联储 无法获得足够的数据来判断是否降息，叠加政府支出或持续释放6月以来短债融资的7000亿美元资金， 在美元流动性充裕的情况下，滞胀风险持续上升，美联储降息节奏可以适当放缓。预计美联储接下来更 倾向于用其他政策工具对资金面进行呵护，而非机械性降息。"赵复初称。 本周，金银价格强势反弹。11月11日，伦敦金现货价格重回4140美元／盎司一线，伦敦银现货价格重新 站上51美元／盎司。内盘方面，截至下午收盘，沪金期货价格涨超2%，沪银期货价格涨超3%。 对此，东证期货宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，黄金市 ...