来源：环球时报 "华尔街尚且无法确定凯文·沃什究竟是朋友还是敌人。"《华尔街日报》的另一篇文章分析称，沃什在2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事，曾因长期认为 低利率和大规模债券购买会推高物价而被贴上在通胀问题上持有"鹰派"立场的标签。然而，近段时间他却公开支持降低借贷成本，与总统的立场趋于一致， 这一转变与其长期以来的"鹰派"形象形成鲜明反差。此外，沃什认为美联储应该收缩资产负债表，一些投资者认为此举可以减轻降息的影响。 沃什的任命在华尔街引发热议。据英国广播公司（BBC）报道，沃什的提名得到了前国务卿赖斯和华尔街知名经济学家埃里安等权威人士的赞扬。但也有批 评者认为，沃什在政策制定方面的记录并不理想，并提到他在2008年金融危机期间曾反对实施经济刺激措施，因担忧其可能引发通胀——这一观点在当时乃 至现今均属少数派。 【环球时报报道 记者 马梦阳】经过长达数月的猜测，美国总统特朗普1月30日宣布，将任命前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔，出任新一任美联储主席。 此项任命尚待参议院批准。这一备受关注的人事动向引发了贵金属市场的波动，美国股市也出现下跌。有外媒分析认为，在对特朗普干预美联储的担忧中， 市场反应 ...

美联储前理事凯文.沃什被美国总统特朗普提名接替鲍威尔、出任新一任美联储主席后，该提名在参议 院迅速遭遇民主党议员的集体阻击。 当地时间2月4日，参议院银行委员会的11名民主党成员联名致信委员会主席，要求推迟对沃什提名的相 关审议程序，直至针对美联储主席鲍威尔以及美联储理事莉萨.库克的"借口性刑事调查"被终止。 眼下，沃什的提名程序面临陷入僵局的风险，而在政治不确定性加剧、美联储内部意见分化的背景下， 美降息路径也变得更加复杂和艰难。 提名审议受阻 根据相关程序，沃什的提名将首先提交参议院银行委员会举行听证会，随后交由参议院全体投票表决。 在获得过半数议员支持后，沃什将同时出任美联储主席(任期4年)和美联储理事(任期14年)。 参议院银行委员会由13名共和党议员和11名民主党议员组成。目前，11名民主党议员已集体表态，反对 在相关调查尚未结束之前推进沃什的提名程序。民主党参议员在联名信中强烈抗议称，特朗普政府"显 然试图通过刑事起诉来夺取对美联储的控制权，这既危险又前所未有"。他们强调，在司法部正对两名 在任美联储理事展开刑事调查的背景下，允许特朗普总统亲自挑选下一任美联储主席，"从表面上看就 荒谬至极"。 目 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant drop in precious metal prices, with gold experiencing its largest single-day decline in 40 years and silver hitting a historic intraday drop of 36% [1][2][4] - On January 31, spot gold prices fell over 12%, reaching a low of $4682 per ounce, while closing down 9.25% at $4880 per ounce [2][4] - Spot silver prices dropped to a low of $74.28 per ounce, closing down 26.42% at $85.259 per ounce [4][8] Group 2 - The sell-off in precious metals was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar, following the announcement of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which raised concerns about the Fed's independence [4][6][7] - The dollar index saw a significant increase, marking its largest single-day rise since July of the previous year, which negatively impacted investor confidence in gold and silver [4][5] - The market was already experiencing a demand for a correction, and the combination of factors, including the Fed chair nomination and broader capital flow dynamics, acted as a catalyst for profit-taking [4][6] Group 3 - The broader US stock market also faced declines, with major indices closing lower due to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies, inflation pressures, and geopolitical risks [5] - The gold sector saw substantial losses, with major companies like Barrick Gold and AngloGold experiencing declines of over 10% [5] - The sell-off in precious metals was characterized by panic selling and profit-taking, particularly among leveraged positions, which exacerbated market volatility [8][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated that the Federal Reserve's independence is based on public trust, which has been lost due to uncontrolled inflation affecting people's incomes [1] - Basset expressed that President Donald Trump has the right to publicly comment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, similar to members of Congress [1] - Trump indicated that there is "little doubt" the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, emphasizing his choice of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair due to Warsh's understanding of Trump's desire for lower rates [3] Group 2 - Jerome Powell, the current Fed Chair, faced scrutiny after a video discussing a Department of Justice investigation into his testimony, which he claims is unrelated to the ongoing renovation of the Fed's historic building [3][5] - Powell asserted that he has fulfilled his duties without fear or political bias, focusing on price stability and maximum employment, despite the threats he faces [5] - Activists on social media perceive the DOJ's investigation of Powell as pressure from Trump, stemming from their disagreements on interest rate cuts, with Trump criticizing Powell for not lowering rates quickly enough [5]

Group 1 - The political struggle surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and personnel decisions has intensified, with President Trump setting clearer policy preferences for the next Fed chair, emphasizing a shift towards easing monetary policy [1] - Trump's remarks indicate that potential chair nominee Kevin Walsh will not be considered if he supports a rate hike, highlighting the direct link between the chair's nomination and monetary policy stance [1] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, as political pressures and ongoing investigations into the Fed's operations could undermine public trust and the institution's decision-making capabilities [2] Group 2 - The Fed's internal stance on inflation remains cautious, with Governor Lisa Cook advocating for maintaining the current interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% until there is stronger evidence of inflation returning to target levels [3] - Recent labor market data shows a significant slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added in January, falling short of market expectations, particularly in manufacturing and large enterprises [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations, have led to volatility in oil prices, further complicating inflation expectations and risk asset performance [4] Group 3 - The combination of political pressures, personnel battles, weakening employment data, and geopolitical risks is creating a complex environment for market participants, with the tension between policy judgments and market pricing remaining high [4]

在政治压力持续升温的背景下，美联储内部对通胀问题的表态依旧保持谨慎。理事丽莎·库克指出，在 缺乏更有力证据证明通胀能够持续回落至目标水平之前，维护央行通胀信誉仍是政策制定的核心考量。 她表示，当前风险仍偏向通胀上行，并支持维持利率不变的决定。相关言论发布于美联储将基准利率维 持在3.5%至3.75%区间之后。此前，央行已在2025年底连续三次下调利率。市场认为，库克的表态 对"快速宽松"预期形成了技术性约束，也进一步凸显出决策层在政策节奏与风险评估方面的分歧。 UNforex 2月5日讯 本周以来，美联储货币政策取向与高层人事安排相关的政治张力明显上升。美国总 统特朗普的最新公开表态，为下一任美联储主席的遴选设定了更为明确的政策边界，也使央行独立性问 题再次成为市场与国会讨论的焦点。在货币政策立场承受外部压力的同时，美国劳动力市场降温迹象持 续显现，而中东局势反复波动亦不断干扰风险资产定价，宏观层面的不确定性呈现出多重因素叠加的共 振状态。 特朗普在近期采访中直言，如果潜在主席人选凯文·沃什支持加息，其提名将不具备现实可能性。他强 调当前利率水平处于偏高区间，并认为美联储转向降息已不再存在实质性争议。相关表态 ...

据环球网援引美国全国广播公司（NBC）报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间4日接受该媒体独家专访时表 示，若候任美联储主席凯文·沃什不支持降息，就不会得到这份工作。 当地时间4日，特朗普接受NBC独家专访。 报道称，特朗普在采访中表示，他对很快就能降息一事并无太大疑问。当被追问为何如此笃定时，特朗 普说，"我只是认为会降息。我的意思是，它们（利率）本就该更低。" 报道说，被问及沃什是否明白特朗普希望他能降息，特朗普回答说，"我想他明白，但我觉得他无论如 何都想这么做。"特朗普补充说，"我是说，如果他进来就说，'我想提高它们（利率）'，他将不会得到 这份工作。不会。" 审核：魏国峻 凯文·沃什 资料图 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事沃什出任下一任美联储主席。据英国《金融时报》报道，沃什的提名 将先由参议院银行委员会审议，之后诉诸参议院全院表决。2月3日，美国国会参议院银行委员会的全体 11名民主党人致信该委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求推迟沃什的全部提名程序，直至针对现任主席鲍威 尔等美联储理事的刑事调查终止。多家媒体称，特朗普政府调查鲍威尔等人恐适得其反。《金融时报》 称，沃什本人属"主流"美联储主席候选人，与国会和华 ...

Market Analysis - Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, aiming for a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" policy, which led to silver dropping over 30% and gold experiencing an 11% decline, the largest single-day drop since March 1980[1] - The current tight liquidity environment necessitates aggressive rate cuts to achieve Warsh's balance sheet reduction goals, with Fed Governor Milan suggesting a need for more than 100 basis points of rate cuts this year[1] - The December Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, with a 0.25 percentage point rate cut announced on January 15[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in January, with growth rates reaching the fastest level since 2022, driven by new orders and production increases[2] - The ADP reported a job increase of 22,000 in January, falling short of the expected 45,000, indicating a cooling labor market despite some stability signs[5] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing negotiations regarding oil supplies and trade agreements, including a deal between the U.S. and India to reduce tariffs from 25% to 18%[2] Commodity Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector continues to face supply constraints, maintaining high certainty for investment, while precious metals regain allocation value post-adjustment[3] - OPEC+ plans to maintain stable oil production in March, with geopolitical factors providing short-term support for oil prices, although long-term expectations for Venezuelan production increases pose risks[3] - The chemical sector shows resilience against downturns, while agricultural products remain sensitive to weather conditions and disease outbreaks in livestock[3] Strategy and Risks - The recommendation is to accumulate positions in precious metals on dips, while being cautious of geopolitical risks and potential economic downturns impacting risk assets[4] - Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, unexpected global economic downturns, and tighter monetary policies from the Federal Reserve[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Governor Lisa Cook, emphasizes the urgent need to bring inflation back to target levels to restore its credibility amid ongoing economic and political pressures [1][3]. Inflation Control Focus - Cook has made it clear that her priority is inflation control, stating that unless there is stronger evidence of sustainable inflation decline, it will remain her focus, especially in the absence of unexpected changes in the labor market [3]. - She highlighted the importance of maintaining the Fed's reputation after nearly five years of inflation above target, stressing the need to return to anti-inflationary paths soon [3]. Interest Rate Policy - Cook's stance aligns with the Fed's recent decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach as she perceives risks leaning towards higher inflation [3]. - This cautious outlook is supported by other policymakers, with indications of potential rate cuts by the end of 2025, while recent assessments of the economy and labor market suggest no immediate need for further rate cuts [3]. Political Context - Cook's comments come at a time of changing political dynamics within the Fed, with President Trump nominating former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh for the next chair, raising concerns about the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation [4]. - During her speech, Cook did not address attempts by the Trump administration to remove her from the board, as her position awaits a Supreme Court ruling expected in the coming weeks [4]. Dollar Outlook - Cook's strong statements provide a short-term boost to the dollar, alleviating some speculation about policy shifts and emphasizing the likelihood of maintaining high interest rates [5]. - However, from a longer-term perspective, this situation highlights and exacerbates the political risks to the Fed's independence, suggesting that any hawkish comments from officials may be overshadowed by politically driven easing tendencies if the White House continues to exert pressure [6]. - The market response may reflect a pattern of short-term rebounds with long-term caution, with the dollar index's trajectory dependent on upcoming economic data and political developments regarding the Fed's independence [6].

随着凯文·沃什被提名出任下一届美联储主席，"沃什时代"的货币政策走向成为全球市场焦点，市场此前对 降息的乐观预期正逐步降温。近日，又一位美联储高官公开释放鹰派信号，暗示不支持过早启动降息进 程，核心担忧在于当前通胀仍有粘性，过早宽松可能导致通胀反弹。这一表态进一步凸显，"沃什时代"的 降息之路注定困难重重，美联储在通胀与经济增长之间的平衡愈发艰难，市场多空博弈持续升温。 此外，政治压力与市场现实也构成双重制约。美国总统特朗普持续施压美联储，要求快速降息以提振经 济、助力选情，降低联邦政府债务利息支出，但沃什始终强调美联储的独立性，不愿因政治诉求牺牲通胀 控制目标。同时，当前美债规模高企，若贸然降息，可能削弱美元信用、引发资本外流，而缩表与降息的 并行，更可能加剧市场流动性波动，进一步增加降息的实操难度。 市场各方对"沃什时代"的降息前景分歧显著，中立呈现多元博弈态势。乐观派认为，随着通胀持续降温， 核心CPI逐步逼近目标，美联储内部分歧将逐步缓解，沃什可能调整政策节奏，在年内启动温和降息，以 应对经济增长压力；部分机构则预期，若就业市场出现恶化，降息窗口可能提前打开。 谨慎派则与发声高官观点一致，认为通胀粘性 ...