"奈游走在理论研究和政策制定之间，这一经历使他对美国外交政策的运作机制有着独到的见解。"《金 融时报》评论称。报道援引美国前高级情报官员和政策制定者韦德宁的话称，奈既能进行高度理论化的 国际关系思考，又能将其转化为实际政策。 据肯尼迪政府学院创始院长艾利森称，奈最为自豪的是他曾通过双重途径为阻止核战争作出的贡献：既 以学者身份担任"避免核战争"项目联合主席进行智力输出，又以官员角色在克林顿政府中付诸实践。 在学术方面，奈提出的最著名的概念是"软实力"。1990年，他在自己所著的《注定领导世界：美国权力 性质的变迁》一书中创造了"软实力"一词，用来描述国家所具有的除经济及军事力量外的第三方面实 力，主要是文化、价值观、意识形态及民意等方面的影响力。至今"软实力"仍是国际关系专业教科书中 必备的术语。他也是国际关系理论中"新自由主义"学派的代表人物。 【环球时报报道 记者 白云怡 李艾鑫】美国哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院7日发布公报称，学院前院长、美 国知名政治学者约瑟夫·奈于6日去世，享年88岁。据英国《金融时报》、新加坡《联合早报》等媒体报 道，"软实力"概念提出者约瑟夫·奈是国际关系领域最杰出的思想家和实践者之一 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing low international oil prices are significantly impacting Russia's fiscal situation, with the budget deficit expected to rise to 1.7% of GDP, reflecting the broader global energy power dynamics and economic shifts [1][2] Fiscal Impact - Russia's Ministry of Finance has revised its 2025 federal budget revenue forecast down from 40.3 trillion rubles to 38.5 trillion rubles, with the budget deficit projected to increase from 1.1 trillion rubles to 3.7 trillion rubles [1] - The low oil prices are a result of multiple adverse factors, indicating that this trend is likely to continue, putting pressure on Russia's fiscal system as a major energy exporter [1][2] Strategic Responses - Russia is utilizing its National Welfare Fund (NWF) to buffer against oil price shocks, showcasing its ability to convert resource reserves into strategic adjustment tools [2] - The dynamic adjustment of budget rules, allowing the deficit target to be raised from 0.5% to 1.7%, reflects a proactive approach to absorb external shocks, akin to a corporate risk reserve mechanism [2] Market Dynamics - Russia's role in OPEC's production decisions is not passive; by increasing production during low price periods, it aims to gain market share and pressure high-cost competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [2] Demand Diversification - The shift towards energy exports to China and India has increased the share of crude oil exports to China from 14% in 2013 to 35% in 2023, diversifying geopolitical risks and stabilizing demand through long-term agreements [3] Economic Resilience - The share of oil revenue in GDP has decreased from 6.8% to 5.4%, indicating Russia's efforts to cultivate non-energy sectors, such as a 40% increase in agricultural exports, thereby reducing resource dependency [3] Market Sentiment Management - The government has signaled that it can maintain budget balance even with oil prices at $60 per barrel, aiming to manage market expectations and mitigate panic selling [3] Energy Pricing Strategy - Russia is focusing on enhancing its bargaining power in the Asia-Pacific market through infrastructure projects like Arctic LNG and Eastern oil pipelines, while increasing the proportion of transactions settled in rubles [3] Technological Development - The need for breakthroughs in refining technology and low-carbon energy, with a 25% increase in hydrogen energy research investment, is critical for Russia to adapt to global energy transitions [4] Systemic Capability Building - Russia's response strategy has evolved from relying solely on resource endowments to integrating fiscal reserves, restructuring trade networks, and guiding market expectations, which are essential for long-term competitiveness [4]

供应过剩压力加剧。欧佩克联盟近期连续两月大幅增产（日增41.1万桶），远超市场吸收能力，导致布 伦特油价跌至四年低位（每桶65~70美元区间）。沙特通过降价争夺市场份额（亚洲溢价从每桶2.30美 元降至1.20美元），加剧供应端软实力价值稀释，削弱其"油价稳定器"角色。此外，非欧佩克国家（如 美国页岩油）日供应增量达160万桶，进一步压制油价中枢。 需求端结构性疲软。全球贸易战持续冲击工业用油需求，美国制造业PMI跌破荣枯线（49.1）、中国炼 厂开工率低于预期（80%），显示实体经济软实力耗散。关税政策外溢效应间接抑制日均石油需求约 15~20万桶，叠加服务业贸易增长对能源依赖度下降，原油需求弹性显著弱化。 欧佩克战略协调失效。沙特与俄罗斯等国在"限产保价"与"争夺份额"间的矛盾显性化，内部协调机制崩 溃。通过"惩罚性增产"试图强化规则执行，反而暴露战略短视，市场对其信任瓦解。补偿性减产计划 （日减19.6万~52万桶）虽对冲部分增产影响，但未能重建供应端软实力生态。 政策博弈与预期管理失衡。特朗普关税政策从"硬冲击"转向"软约束"，政策不确定性降低但仍抑制需求 预期。美联储鹰派政策推动美元走强，形成"库存 ...

Group 1: Economic Insights - Torsten Slok warns that if the Trump administration continues high tariff policies (average rate rising from 3% to 18%), it could shrink US GDP by 4%, equivalent to erasing California's economy [1] - The current US policies are causing a dual crisis in strategic coordination, with internal governance issues and external trust erosion, undermining the US's soft power as a free trade order maintainer [1] - The decline in US soft power is linked to the over-reliance on hard power tools like tariffs, which accelerates the loss of international discourse power [1] Group 2: Energy Sector Challenges - Falling oil prices are forcing US oil companies to cut production and lay off workers, revealing vulnerabilities in the energy sector's technological reserves and capital resilience [2] - The trend of reduced upstream investment is evident as oil service companies like Baker Hughes cut exploration budgets, stifling technological innovation [2] - The traditional energy giants, such as Chevron, are experiencing profit declines, weakening their ability to dominate industry rules through capital strength [2] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - Slok highlights the potential for a "Truss moment" due to soaring US Treasury yields, indicating a crisis in fiscal credit soft power [2] - The market's trust in fiscal discipline is waning, as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.6%, reflecting concerns over long-term fiscal credibility [2] - The current turmoil in the Treasury market underscores the absence of mechanisms for "expectation anchoring" and "risk-sharing" in monetary policy soft power [2] Group 4: Structural Economic Risks - Despite predicting a 0% probability of US recession by 2025, Slok identifies ten significant risks, including a 90% probability of tariff increases and Nvidia's performance falling short of expectations [3] - The over-dependence on a single company (Nvidia) for AI industry narratives poses a risk to innovation leadership, especially if the technological dividend fades [3] - The reliance on government spending for economic growth, with 25% of new jobs coming from the public sector, highlights structural weaknesses in the US economy [3] Group 5: Soft Power Framework - Slok's multidimensional warnings reveal a systematic decline in the US's soft power across strategic resource integration, institutional resilience, and technological leadership [3] - To rebuild soft power, the US must move beyond short-term policy games towards a governance model that includes rule co-construction, technological symbiosis, and debt co-governance [3]

欧佩克战略协调能力的弱化：软实力根基动摇。邓正红软实力思想强调，组织的战略决策能力是其软实 力的核心。欧佩克联盟连续两月意外增产，表面上是通过产量调控（硬实力）争夺市场份额，实则暴露 了其战略协调机制的失效。在需求端因经济衰退风险承压的背景下，此举非但未能稳定市场预期，反而 引发对供应过剩的恐慌，导致油价下行。这种短期利益导向的决策，削弱了欧佩克作为"全球油价稳定 器"的长期信誉，其通过产量政策影响全球能源秩序的软实力遭到质疑。 外部环境冲击：美国政策加速能源软实力稀释。特朗普关税政策引发的全球经济不确定性，进一步放大 了欧佩克决策的负面影响。邓正红指出，软实力的有效性取决于对外部风险的动态适应能力。欧佩克在 需求端收缩时逆势增产，与市场逻辑背离，本质上是未能将美国贸易政策这一变量纳入战略框架，导致 其供给侧调节的软实力工具（产量政策）与经济周期错配。这种战略短视不仅加剧了油价压力，更使能 源领域在全球经济治理中的话语权被稀释。 邓正红软实力表示，欧佩克联盟决定连续第二个月提高产量，石油软实力承压，能源软实力价值稀释， 周一（5月5日）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油6月期货结算价 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing a "comprehensive crisis" due to strong backlash from multiple countries against the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, with some U.S. agricultural product prices dropping over 20% due to decreased trade with China [1][2] - The reliance of U.S. agriculture on the Chinese market has been exposed as fragile, as the trade war has disrupted established supply chains, leading to price crashes and inventory buildup [2][3] - The strong protests from U.S. agricultural interest groups reflect a significant misalignment between the Trump administration's policies and the interests of domestic economic entities, resulting in job losses and order cancellations [2][3] Group 2 - China's precise countermeasures against U.S. agricultural products demonstrate its ability to enhance strategic initiative through market rule tools, effectively reshaping the global agricultural trade network [3][4] - The crisis signifies a shift in the U.S. role from a "globalization leader" to an "isolationist player," with the Trump administration's reliance on hard power overshadowing the need for maintaining international public goods [3][4] - The agricultural crisis is a superficial consequence of the trade war, while the deeper issue lies in the systemic decline of U.S. soft power elements, highlighting the importance of reputation and cooperative networks in global competition [4]

软实力概念的提出者、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院前院长约瑟夫·奈认为，一个国家的软实力取决于 其文化、价值观的吸引力，以及其政策在外界人士眼中的合法性。这名美国学者日前在英国《金 融时报》发表评论文章说，美国总统特朗普再次上台后，扬言"购买"格陵兰岛、觊觎巴拿马运 河、霸凌盟友和第三世界国家，这些依靠"胁迫和交易"的政策既不正当也不合理，严重损害美国 软实力。 近期在英国伦敦发布的《2025年全球软实力指数》显示，美国的"声誉"和"治理水平"两项指标正 在下滑。在奈看来，随着特朗普继续执政，美国的软实力在今后几年会经受更大挑战。 特朗普政府对美国软实力的衰退并不以为意。一个例证是，特朗普政府就任后立即关闭了美国国 际开发署，这家机构一直以来被认为是美国包装和输出自身软实力的重要平台。有分析人士指 出，在特朗普政府看来，继续包装维持美国的软实力纯属浪费资源，"赤裸裸"的胁迫施压能更为 直接地获取利益。澳大利亚"对话"网站刊文说，特朗普政府似乎完全放弃软实力，也不在乎这将 给美国带来的损害。 "美国的影响力和软实力正经历一场'大出血'" "美国软实力正在蒸发" "美国软实力正在蒸发""美国在加速挥霍其软实力""政策反复 ...

北半球能源旺季提振原油需求，但贸易战与关税阴影令前景未卜。欧佩克限产与页岩油增产角力，消费 者信心跌至低谷，油价在短期震荡与长期重构中博弈——这既是供需平衡的较量，更是五维软实力的动 态对决。邓正红软实力表示，进入5月原油需求端喜忧参半，一方面即将开始的北半球能源消费传统旺 季彰显石油软实力价值，另一方面关税和贸易战令石油软实力运行前景未卜。3月美国零售市场表现超 预期，关税冲击暂未体现在数据上，且存在政策落地前的抢购和抢出口红利，但4月密歇根大学消费者 信心指数已跌至近年低位。 未来特朗普仍将对全球经济发出考验，受贸易局势不确定性影响，原油需求预期理当有所下调，邓正红 软实力模型预测2025年二季度全球原油日需求增速约在100万桶左右。总的来看，当前石油市场的波动 反映了市场对供需平衡的担忧，全球经济的不确定性以及对需求的担忧仍然对油价构成压力。邓正红软 实力思想强调，国家或组织的核心竞争能力体现在资源整合、前瞻决策、制度创新、价值影响及环境适 应五大维度。当前原油市场的波动正是这五维软实力博弈的集中体现。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，建立企业软实力理论、软实力 函数、软 ...

数字化优化决策：马来西亚国家石油公司与斯伦贝谢合作的人工智能油田开发优化系统，以及ADNOC 的井场数字化改造，通过数据驱动的实时决策缩短响应周期，将环境不确定性转化为运营效率优势。 金融工具对冲风险：埃克森美孚通过股票回购传递现金流稳健信号，期货对冲平滑利润波动，在投行下 调目标股价的背景下维持市场信心。这体现了企业利用金融工具构建"财务缓冲带"的软实力。 能源公司通过"技术-资本-产业链"三维整合强化资源控制力： 从壳牌LNG全产业链布局到埃克森美孚CCS技术卡位，巨头们正通过软实力构建行业话语权，在油价波 动与能源变革中重塑规则。邓正红指出，"能源企业的未来竞争将不仅是资源储量硬实力的比拼，更是 软实力框架下战略敏捷性、技术协同度与生态整合力的全方位较量。"基于邓正红软实力思想视角，从 趋势适应力、市场应变力、资源整合力、战略前瞻力四大维度展开分析，揭示能源企业在复杂市场环境 中如何通过软实力构建行业主动权和话语权。 国际能源巨头的战略调整体现了其通过价值主张重构强化能源韧性的努力。例如，壳牌将LNG业务作 为核心，通过锁定长期供应协议、拓展新兴市场（如印度、东南亚）、收购关键资产（兰亭能源），构 建覆 ...